India moves close to China in growth rate

[Rage]

Unfortunately, that's not what @Rage was saying. Rage didn't say 'real GDP expressed in 2005-06 dollars will be lower than real GDP expressed in 2010 dollars'. Rage said that real GDP deflated using the 2005-06 deflator (with whatever G&S weighting in their deflator basket) will systemically undercount real GDP independent of the deflator. I was asking if Rage knew something about the characteristics of the Indian deflator that all of us didn't.

Uhh, no.

I said:

Even considering this foolish "base year" argument, which has nothing to do with the comparative statics of real GDP, India's real real GDP, if it were to be calculated as a number and measured in relation with China's real GDP as a separate (and more accurate) comparison of economic performance, would be much higher than it is at present since India's real GDP has a base year of 2004-05, while China's has 2010 (and much of India's post-liberalization inflation has been in the intervening period).

Let me break it down for you:
- Comparative statics
- Real GDP base year and deflator
- Inflation

Conclusion: if expressed in (comparable) 2010 dollar terms, India's Real GDP would be significantly higher than it's current valuation because of the intervening inflation.

Don't ignore what I said about China's calculation of it's Nominal GDP.

And what in God's good name do you mean "systemically undercount real GDP independent of the deflator"? How can you retroactively "undercount" real GDP "independent of the deflator"? A lot of technical jargonistic rubbish without any meaning.

 

[ice berg]

I'm asking you to show me, using numbers and figures, how "China's nominal GDP is 4 times that of India" when the previous year's, i.e. 2011, figures show that the ratio of nominal GDP's is 3.6 (that's right, India's financial year hasn't ended yet, stupid) given the real growth rates in the preceding quarters, given significantly higher inflation in India and given that the PPP ratios (or conversion factor:exchange rate ratios, called the 'national price level') have changed only fractionally. You think that's a "silly question", again, why don't you try answering it?

It is hard to talk to a retard, but I will try to dumb it down for you.

What part of my original post did you not understand? I said clearly:
As regarding the statement of whether chinese GDP in year 2012 is four times bigger than India.
Chinese GDP were 8,2 trillion in 2012. Indian has less than 2 trillion.

Dont know what numbers you are using in the planet you coming from. But that is quite clear to anyone who pass the elementry school.


.

Cant bother to read rest of your rants. You are repeating the same drivel over and over again. It is hard to explain basic macroeconomics to kids who dont possess basic math skills.

 

[Mad Indian]

Cant bother to read rest of your rants. You are repeating the same drivel over and over again. It is hard to explain basic macroeconomics to kids who dont possess basic math skills.

Harping non sense again and again make it true


How did Chinese economy jumped magically to four times the size of India(nominal) when nominal growth of India was higher than China for the same year, while in the previous year it was only 3.6 times higher than India's gdp???

You still have not demonstrated how that is even possible

 

[ice berg]

Harping non sense again and again make it true


How did Chinese economy jumped magically to four times the size of India(nominal) when nominal growth of India was higher than China for the same year, while in the previous year it was only 3.6 times higher than India's gdp???

You still have not demonstrated how that is even possible

Where did you get the idea that India had higher GDP growth than China in 2012? I have provided links given the GDP numbers of both countries.

Do the math. The GDP is measured in dollar. It means you have to adjust your GDP with the current exchange rate.

say at the begining of the year 1 dollar = 50 INR

say your GDP is 50 trillion INR. That means your GDP measured in dollar is 1 trillion.

Now say your GDP measured in INR remains the same at the end of the year, however rupeer depreciated against dollar so now 1 dollar = 53 INR.

Now what is the size of indian GDP in dollar terms? Do you get it now? Chinese yuan appreciated against USD during 2012 while INR depreciated against USD. Just look the exchange rate of INR and Yuan vs USD in jan 2012 and des 2012.

 

[PredictablyMalicious]

These numbers are not impressive at all. India's growth should be higher than China's considering we have a much lower base. India needs to rapidly build infrastructure and remove bottlenecks on key industries especially manufacturing. We must achieve around 10% growth for two decades. That would be impressive.

 

[Rage]

Cant bother to read rest of your rants. You are repeating the same drivel over and over again. It is hard to explain basic macroeconomics to kids who dont possess basic math skills.

You trying to teach me "basic macroeconomics" is like a scouse trying to teach Macbeth.

All of you chicoms on this forum resort to ad hominems when you don't have anything to say, and then pass off somebody else's retorts at you as 'rants'.

We have this saying in Hindi, 'Mereko ch@dne mat sikha'.

Go get yourself a macro textbook before you try and pass off your highschool economics 'education' as 'expert' rubbish.

 

[t_co]

@Rage, I checked online and couldn't find a source that India's real GDP used a 2005-6 FY deflator while China's used a 2010 deflator. Furthermore, I still don't get how this affects real GDP if you're expressing everything in 2010 dollars anyhow, as couldn't you just take 2012 GDP and deflate it by the 2011 and 2010 inflation rates in both countries to arrive at the correct ratios? Any way you slice it, that ratio comes out close to 3.5 or 3.6, by my own calculations.

What's more, if a budget deficit ratio (numerator) is deflated at the same rate as the GDP (denominator), then shouldn't the ratio stay the same? So it should be 1.1% for China no matter whether the dollars are 2012 nominal or 2010 real of 2005-2006 base year...

 

[t_co]

You trying to teach me "basic macroeconomics" is like a scouse trying to teach Macbeth.

All of you chicoms on this forum resort to ad hominems when you don't have anything to say, and then pass off somebody else's retorts at you as 'rants'.

We have this saying in Hindi, 'Mereko ch@dne mat sikha'.

Go get yourself a macro textbook before you try and pass off your highschool economics 'education' as 'expert' rubbish.

Yeah, you're just trying to confuse everyone with economics terminology here. You still haven't cited any sources, nor have you explained your logic clearly, while you desperately try to make the Indian economy look larger than it is. Your links were merely links to reference concepts, not hard backing for your claims. Quite claiming ad hominems when you're the one trying to muddy up the debate here.

 

[t_co]

Uhh, no.

I said:


Let me break it down for you:
- Comparative statics
- Real GDP base year and deflator
- Inflation

Of course if you express real GDP in 2005-6 dollars you have a lower real GDP than if you express it in 2010 dollars. The point is though, how does that impact the relative size comparison of the Chinese and Indian economies? It doesn't--if you express both China and India in 2005-6 dollars, you have China 3.5x larger than India's economy; if you express both China and India in 2010 dollars, you still have China 3.5-6x larger than India's economy.

Conclusion: if expressed in (comparable) 2010 dollar terms, India's Real GDP would be significantly higher than it's current valuation because of the intervening inflation.

So what? Again, no one was comparing China GDP in 2010 dollars against Indian GDP in 2005 dollars. That's a strawman point, and I was giving you an out to avoid making you look like an idiot. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like you want to accept the nice approach...

Don't ignore what I said about China's calculation of it's Nominal GDP.

And what in God's good name do you mean "systemically undercount real GDP independent of the deflator"? How can you retroactively "undercount" real GDP "independent of the deflator"? A lot of technical jargonistic rubbish without any meaning.

You systematically undercount real GDP independent of the deflator in two ways: one, if your G&S basket stays static in yoy inflation calculations, and causes you to overstate inflation and hence have a higher GDP deflator than normal; second, if your statistical methods don't calculate the relative values of different goods and services correctly. I was wondering if you knew of such a systemic bias within Indian GDP figures. That would be something noteworthy to learn.

 

[cir]

What a joke！Hilarious！！

India's GDP growth to fall to 5%, lowest in a decade

Last updated on: February 7, 2013 12:25 IST

India's economic growth rate this fiscal is estimated to be sharply lower at 5 per cent, lowest in a decade, on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sector.

This estimate by CSO is drastically lower than what has been projected thus far by the government and RBI.

"The growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) during 2012-13 is estimated at 5 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 6.2 per cent in 2011-12," according to the Advanced Estimates released on Thursday by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

In 2002-03, the GDP had grown at 4 per cent. Since then the Indian economy has been expanding at over 6 per cent, the highest rate being 9.6 per cent in 2006-07.

CSO's advance estimate lowered the growth in agriculture and allied activities to 1.8 per cent in 2012-13, compared to 3.6 per cent 2011-12.

India's GDP growth to fall to 5%, lowest in a decade - Rediff.com Business

 

[cinoti]

Worse than the data, their inflation is up, CIP ceiling raised. everything now is charged at a higher price, this is called satagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation.

People usually see growth and inflationn occur at same time, but their case is regression and inflation. they still feel so good about themselves, really admire their spirits.

What a joke！Hilarious！！

India's GDP growth to fall to 5%, lowest in a decade

Last updated on: February 7, 2013 12:25 IST

India's economic growth rate this fiscal is estimated to be sharply lower at 5 per cent, lowest in a decade, on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sector.

This estimate by CSO is drastically lower than what has been projected thus far by the government and RBI.

"The growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) during 2012-13 is estimated at 5 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 6.2 per cent in 2011-12," according to the Advanced Estimates released on Thursday by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

In 2002-03, the GDP had grown at 4 per cent. Since then the Indian economy has been expanding at over 6 per cent, the highest rate being 9.6 per cent in 2006-07.

CSO's advance estimate lowered the growth in agriculture and allied activities to 1.8 per cent in 2012-13, compared to 3.6 per cent 2011-12.

India's GDP growth to fall to 5%, lowest in a decade - Rediff.com Business

 

[cinoti]

They cut rate to stimulate economy,but cash does not flow into investment due to the uncertainty or its future, very much like China before 1989,
a social unrest may very well being brewed right now. we may see more riots more protests even a brief war with pakistan if the government wants to use border conflicts as a way to vent out pressure.

Worse than the data, their inflation is up, CIP ceiling raised. everything now is charged at a higher price, this is called satagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation.

People usually see growth and inflationn occur at same time, but their case is regression and inflation. they still feel so good about themselves, really admire their spirits.

 

[cir]

The funny thing is that，after repeatedly failing to deliver what they promised at the start of every fiscal year for the last 3 years，Indian politicians are still going on about 7-8% growth and are casting doubt on the figures provided by professionals like CSO。

 

[t_co]

The funny thing is that，after repeatedly failing to deliver what they promised at the start of every fiscal year for the last 3 years，Indian politicians are still going on about 7-8% growth and are casting doubt on the figures provided by professionals like CSO。

India's population is growing by about 1.5% per year. GDP growth of 5% means per capita growth of 3.5%. That sucks, quite frankly. How do Indian citizens think their lives are improving with that sort anemic economic growth?

 

[nimo_cn]

Active posters have the right to think their life is improving, they are not every Indian.

Sent from my HUAWEI T8951 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Rage]

Of course if you express real GDP in 2005-6 dollars you have a lower real GDP than if you express it in 2010 dollars. The point is though, how does that impact the relative size comparison of the Chinese and Indian economies? It doesn't--if you express both China and India in 2005-6 dollars, you have China 3.5x larger than India's economy; if you express both China and India in 2010 dollars, you still have China 3.5-6x larger than India's economy.

That's exactly what I'm saying, you nitwit. China's GDP is and has remained "3.6x India's Nominal GDP". As it was in the year 2011. China's Nominal GDP cannot have grown to "more than 4 times India's nominal GDP", as some of your friends have argued, based on inflationary, conversion and exchange rate tendencies for the intervening year.

So what? Again, no one was comparing China GDP in 2010 dollars against Indian GDP in 2005 dollars. That's a strawman point, and I was giving you an out to avoid making you look like an idiot. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like you want to accept the nice approach...

Don't talk about "strawmen arguments" and "giving me an out" because you make yourself look stupid. Your friends, in particular @cir. were talking about Chinese real GDP growth in the year 2012, expressed in 2010 dollar, terms vis-à-vis India's (predetermined) real GDP growth for the same period expressed in 2005 dollar terms. The rebuttal was in response to that. Now, if you don't know what the conversation is about, don't stick your butt in.

You systematically undercount real GDP independent of the deflator in two ways: one, if your G&S basket stays static in yoy inflation calculations, and causes you to overstate inflation and hence have a higher GDP deflator than normal; second, if your statistical methods don't calculate the relative values of different goods and services correctly. I was wondering if you knew of such a systemic bias within Indian GDP figures. That would be something noteworthy to learn.

Utter tripe! Retaining the consumption basket's composition does not amount to "systematic undercounting" of real GDP or any other fancy terms you care to come up with. Nor is the statistical method meant to "calculate the relative values of different goods and services correctly" on a year-on-year basis. If you did your CFA-Level 1, you would know that real GDP Consumption baskets are meant to be country-specific and do NOT change year-on-year. In fact, in India they change on average once every 10 years, to reflect changing data mined from NSS surveys. That would mean the consumption basket has not changed between 2005 and 2010, hence no "systematic undercounting". Moreover, if you wished to analyze the impact of price changes in the economy on account of changes in consumer patterns and/or the introduction of new goods and services, you would have to factor in the GDP deflator not "independent of it".

 

[Rage]

@Rage, I checked online and couldn't find a source that India's real GDP used a 2005-6 FY deflator while China's used a 2010 deflator. Furthermore, I still don't get how this affects real GDP if you're expressing everything in 2010 dollars anyhow, as couldn't you just take 2012 GDP and deflate it by the 2011 and 2010 inflation rates in both countries to arrive at the correct ratios? Any way you slice it, that ratio comes out close to 3.5 or 3.6, by my own calculations.

What's more, if a budget deficit ratio (numerator) is deflated at the same rate as the GDP (denominator), then shouldn't the ratio stay the same? So it should be 1.1% for China no matter whether the dollars are 2012 nominal or 2010 real of 2005-2006 base year...

You sure as hell, aren't looking hard enough!

India to Revise GDP Base Year to 2011-12

I assume you'll have data for your own country.

Yeah, you're just trying to confuse everyone with economics terminology here. You still haven't cited any sources, nor have you explained your logic clearly, while you desperately try to make the Indian economy look larger than it is. Your links were merely links to reference concepts, not hard backing for your claims. Quite claiming ad hominems when you're the one trying to muddy up the debate here.

Funny, I was just about to make the same charge about you. At least, if I am "confusing everyone here" with my economics terminology, I know that they are sound. You, on the other hand, are just inventing shit up.

From crap about "systematic undercounting" of real GDP, to muddying the conceptual waters about GDP deflators and changing consumer preferences. You don't know shit, yet seem to know it all.

 

[Rage]

Worse than the data, their inflation is up, CIP ceiling raised. everything now is charged at a higher price, this is called satagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation.

People usually see growth and inflationn occur at same time, but their case is regression and inflation. they still feel so good about themselves, really admire their spirits.

Another douchebag who doesn't even know what regression is. Do me a favor and look up what real GDP means.

You want to see actual cooking of books, I could tell you stories about how China cooks its power, transport and physical asset books that would make your hair stand on end. Unfortunately, it all comes under company "confidential" policy.

Here's a very, very brief primer:

Local Exaggeration in GDP: 5.8Trl Higher than Central Data-Caijing
Reports of China GDP growth are wildly exaggerated - CBS News

 

[cinoti]

Another douchebag who doesn't even know what regression is. Do me a favor and look up what real GDP means.

You want to see actual cooking of books, I could tell you stories about how China cooks its power, transport and physical asset books that would make your hair stand on end. Unfortunately, it all comes under company "confidential" policy.

Here's a very, very brief primer:

Local Exaggeration in GDP: 5.8Trl Higher than Central Data-Caijing
Reports of China GDP growth are wildly exaggerated - CBS News

Your economy is doomed, your curse even made it uglier. your 4th quater of last year is a negative growth, if these are not
regression, I don't know what is.

Your REAL means Retrogressed Economy at Large, you will see a worse 2013 because your society is at unrest due to a ridiculous unemployment rate, on top of the figure you published, there are more hidden underneath, because most of your unemployed young men have never been employed, they are uneducated, untrained, undisciplined migrate peasants, good fro nothing but using a rod in a bus. No jobs for them, no hope for them, not even a way to release their anger for them.

do us a favor, please don't compare India with China, we are not in the same league, compare yourself with North Korea, I have stats posted below, see how far you are from them.

 

[trackwhack]

Your economy is doomed, your curse even made it uglier. your 4th quater of last year is a negative growth, if these are not
regression, I don't know what is.

Your REAL means Retrogressed Economy at Large, you will see a worse 2013 because your society is at unrest due to a ridiculous unemployment rate, on top of the figure you published, there are more hidden underneath, because most of your unemployed young men have never been employed, they are uneducated, untrained, undisciplined migrate peasants, good fro nothing but using a rod in a bus. No jobs for them, no hope for them, not even a way to release their anger for them.

do us a favor, please don't compare India with China, we are not in the same league, compare yourself with North Korea, I have stats posted below, see how far you are from them.

What the fck are you talking about? Depression in India? Are you retarded?