India concerned over burgeoning Russia-Pak friendship

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by Known_Unknown, Jul 4, 2009.

  1. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    India concerned over burgeoning Russia-Pak friendship - India - The Times of India

    NEW DELHI: A "new and improved" relationship between Russia and Pakistan has raised concerns in India that a certain "cosying up" might have security implications for India.

    In Trieste over the weekend, on the sidelines of the G-8 foreign ministers' meeting, a Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral took shape to tackle terrorism, narcotics, "strategic stability" and regional cooperation. In Moscow, Russian and Pakistani officials met over the past couple of days to work on what they called "strategic cooperation". In fact, the foreign ministers' meeting took off from a trilateral summit level meeting in Moscow between Asif Zardai, Andrei Medvedev and Hamid Karzai after the SCO summit in June.

    A visit to Moscow by former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf in mid-June alerted Indian officials. The visit was apparently facilitated by a private businessman but India realised quite soon that Musharraf was "informally" preparing the way for the visit of Pakistan army chief Ashfaque Kayani who undertook a standalone visit to Russia last week.

    Musharraf, who remains very much a part of Pakistan's military establishment, reportedly had very "productive" meetings with Russian PM Vladimir Putin. The upshot of those meetings seems to be that Russia is willing to take another look at a defence relationship with Pakistan.

    Nandan Unnikrishnan, Russia expert at the Observer Research Foundation, said the truth was not quite so simple. "The Russians feel they need to open a channel with Pakistan. Their concern is driven by the situation in Afghanistan and its impact on Central Asia and the southern Caucasus. There could be a possibility that China is pushing them in this direction. It will be driven by the situation in Afghanistan," he said.

    During the SCO summit in Yekaterinburg, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had declared that "nests of terror" in Pakistan had to be eliminated first. For that, Russia would give all help to Pakistan. Now Russia will even allow transit of NATO military cargo through its territory for use in Afghanistan, an indication of how serious they believe the situation to be.

    India's concern is that Russia could be on the verge of an arms supply relationship with Pakistan. Of all of India's military suppliers, Russia had, thus far, maintained a largely monogamous relationship with India, specially vis-a-vis Pakistan, though Pakistan sourced some Russian made stuff through Ukraine.

    Russia is now in the company of the Israelis, French and American weapons suppliers. In fact, Indian officials have reported that Putin feels there could be a commercial defence relationship with Pakistan. Russia's other big client is China, and right now, China is also in the business of helping out Pakistan against the Taliban and the target of US calls to "stabilise" Pakistan.

    Other Indian officials following developments there said Russia could only do with Pakistan what it had already started doing with China. And India has had to live with it.

    According to a joint statement by Afghanistan, Pakistan and Russia in Trieste this weekend, they "decided to explore the potential of tripartite cooperation in the areas of border control, exchange of information on terrorist activities and organisations, training of anti-terrorist and anti-drug police personnel... the terrorist threat could not be countered solely by enforcement measures and that these measures must be accompanied by national and international efforts to promote socio-economic rehabilitation and development of the region."
     
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  3. Energon

    Energon DFI stars Stars and Ambassadors

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    The Russian arms industry conundrum is a much talked about topic these days. I don't however know how much depth it'll have in the long run.

    On one hand if embittered Russia start flooding Pakistan with their weapons it will certainly be problematic for India, however there are a few things to consider:
    1. The quality, reliability, serviceability and overall industrial capability of Russian military goods has been a major issue that is beyond the scope of geopolitics. If there were certain problems when it came to India (their highest ranked customer) it is highly unlikely that things are going to be markedly different for Pakistan. I'm sure the Pakistani military leadership is well aware of this fact.

    2. Pakistan's financial troubles are equally independent of current geopolitics. The few remaining top of the line Russian products are no longer cheap and given the declining revenues in the oil/gas sector it is only natural to expect an even greater hike in price by their only other viable industry. China is more likely a candidate to provide soft loans for cheap weaponry. The primary thing they need from Russia is consent to buy their components that are integrated into Chinese products.

    For India, buying inferior quality products and services just to appease the Russians and prevent them from supplying Pakistan isn't really an option. And it is rather evident that the Russians are actively seeking this leverage to compensate for the said inferior goods and services. Hence the only smart option IMHO is to change the nature of the Indo-Russian relationship and retain the equilibrium.

    If you haven't noticed, the inherent flaws of Russia's formerly booming economy have recently been exposed. It has now managed to persist with the free fall despite the stabilization of oil prices. Their overall economy is shrinking at an alarming whereabouts of 10% as is their population. At the core of this problem lies Russia's lop sided economic sector where energy and arms are the only two competitive products they have to offer on the global market. And of course it should come of no surprise that India's relationship with post Soviet Russia has primarily been centered around military hardware and possibly the nuclear industry.

    India can be creative and explore other avenues to increase the overall economic relationship to adjust for the decreasing big ticket military purchases. Increasing overall bilateral trade and enabling a more diverse economic structure for the Russians (what that would be is a whole different topic) would also help India not only retain (or expand) the geopolitical equation, but also help open up a new market for itself and hedge its growth (which has so far been dependent upon Western markets).
     
  4. venom

    venom DFI Technocrat

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    Russia is not foolish to lose India for Pakistan.....Its Like throwing the chance of earning billions for Some thousands...........

    Here i Present A analysis of This Debate-

    1. PAF-2020 Has already been decided
    Future Procurement Programmes include 250 JF-17's & 36 J-10B's.PAF is Tryin to reduce the variety of aircrafts it operates to reduce the logistics & Operating costs of Different aircrafts.Hence it will have
    250- JF-17
    36- J-10B
    52- F-16 [34 MLU + 18 Block 52]
    40- F-7PG[other variants will be retired by 2020]
    Around 30 Rose-II & Rose-III Mirage-3 [For maritime role]
    So There wont be any fighter aircraft orders for Russia...

    2. PN has inducted 3 Augusta-90B subs from France & is close to sign another deal with Germany for 3 U-214.So not contracts regarding subs for Russia as Pak Does not have money to purchase any other class.

    3. PN Has order 4 F-22 Frigates from China & is looking for 4 more.Pakistan Navy has shown recent interest in the Chinese Type 054A frigate. Another potential option could be the TKMS MEKO A-200 frigate.So the deal is going to China Or Germany.....Nothing for Russia.

    4. European missile house MBDA has officially confirmed the sale of its Spada 2000 air defense system to the Pakistan Air Force.Speaking on April 16, Chief Executive Antoine Bouvier said the deal for 10 batteries was worth 415 million euros ($656.56 million) over five years, adding that the contract was signed last August and put into force in February.So Nothing here for Russia.

    Russia Will gain nothing from Pakistan ....... may be some Orders for AK-47 & RPG & Grenades ......... Ha ha
    Just compare Defense Budget of Pak & India & Future procurement plans,U'll get the answer for yourself....
     
  5. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Russia hopes to boost economic ties with Pakistan: Medvedev

    http://sify.com/news/russia-hopes-t...-medvedev-news-international-kitn4dhchbg.html

    Russia hopes to develop economic cooperation with Pakistan, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari here on Wednesday.

    "We would like to continue cooperating in fighting terrorism, drug trafficking and international crimes. That's why everything we discussed earlier could be continued, even though [we have] good political dialogue, it is very important to develop economic ties," the Ria Novosti news agency quoted Medvedev as telling Zardari.

    The Russian leader noted that no progress in bilateral economic cooperation has so far been reached.

    "The last time we discussed with you this prospect of cooperation. I hope that we will be able to continue discussing this issue now in terms of bilateral economic cooperation and four-party cooperation in a number of projects," Medvedev said.

    The Russian and Pakistani leaders held an individual meeting in the southern Russian city on Wednesday on the sidelines of the quadrilateral summit, which also gathers the presidents of Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

    The four leaders arrived in Sochi to discuss Afghanistan settlement, the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking as well as regional trade and economic cooperation.

    Medvedev also expressed condolences to the Pakistani leader following the deadly floods in the north of the country in which at least 1,600 people have died and some 20 million were affected by the disaster.

    The floods, caused by the heavy monsoon rains, were the most severe in 80 years. Thousands of houses were destroyed in the country and entire villages were washed out.

    "This is a severe disaster which caused many deaths and unfortunately brought great damage. We mourn with you and are ready to provide assistance to the Pakistani people," Medvedev said.

    Earlier, the Afghanistan settlement, the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking became the main topics on the agenda of a quadrilateral summit in Sochi on Wednesday. This is the second meeting of the presidents of Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    The first quadrilateral summit was held in Tajik capital Dushanbe on July 30, 2009.

    Medvedev said Russia is ready to help Kabul in restoring peace in the war-torn country and fighting terrorism.

    Afghan President Hamid Karzai invited Medvedev to visit Afghanistan.

    "I hope this will happen as quickly as possible and when your busy schedule allows," he told Medvedev, adding that the visit would boost bilateral economic and cultural ties. (ANI)
     
  6. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    What kind of Items will be traded with Pakistan? Guns and weapons maybe. I don't think Pakistan has anything else apart from terrorism to export .
     
  7. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Lip service nothing else. Just the other day there was a report that Russia was pissed with the Pakistanis because of their internal squabble. What does Russia stand to gain from pakistan? The only thing they can do is sell them military hardware.
     
  8. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Not a lip service this much i can guarantee you.This is called shifting of alliances.Even russia has noticed the shift in indian dispensation towards usa.Russia is too worried about the its islamic underbelly and who can be better hedge to control it than pakistan.reason for russian hedging with pakistan are multi-folds.This is the age of shifting geopolitical alliances where alliances shifts like sand shifts from fist.didint we see th saudi shift towards israel in india in feb due to the fear of iranian nukes.
     
  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Russia is shifting towards the country that handed them their defeat in Afghanistan, how well will this work out??
     
  10. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Didn't india shift towards saudis and USA who always undermined India in favour of pakistan?Geopolitical relations/alliances are not based on past sentiments they are rather based on present interests.
     
  11. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    I don't see a major policy shift here but it could be abeginning. Pervez Musharraf Kayani and now Zardari have been trying to build a rapport with Russia for a while now. Couple this with backdoor diplomacy on establishing relations with Israel.

    Its always good to remember the adage of International Relations: There are no permanant friends or enemies, only permanant interests.
     
  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    What interest does Russia have in Pakistan?? Russia does not give a way free money and they want cash for their weapons. Just a pressure tactic by Russia, maybe from losing many new weapon deals.
     
  13. samarsingh

    samarsingh Regular Member

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    would be interesting to see the US reaction to this, after all Pakistan getting too close to China did not go down very well with Unkil
     
  14. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Russia is fearful of taliban shouting jihad and charging into central asian republics and in Chechnya. And who can be better bet than pakistan to control them.Btw russia can throw some toys for pakistan for free or in Aid if pakistan controls jihadi not to venture in central asia.Its not the big price to pay for raussia.
     
  15. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    This alliance has been taking place with usa blessing
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    well this could also be a move to strengthen SCO ,a move which would not have USA's blessings but China's.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2010
  17. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Is it a ploy to put pressure on India which is getting closer to USA now a days? Due to India Russians are felling Jittery about Defence deals going to Americans.
     
  18. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    whichever way you look but ultimate loser will be india.For once you ve tho credit Pindi GHQ for its diplomatic victories over south block new delhi novices since 26/11
     
  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Pakistan has always survived thru diplomacy, but this time ther diplomacy is creating a foreign policy mess for India unlike the past.
     
  20. Logan

    Logan Regular Member

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    Yes that is without a doubt...India has always been a novice in diplomacy tactics.Pakistan on the otherhand have always been able to convince the world that they are innocent.
     
  21. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    For handling pak diplomatically india need shrewed leader like Indira or PVNR.Present dispensation in south block is behaving like a stunned hare caught in searchlights.south block has been floored in afghanistan to such an extent that they came to the position of begging to the pakistan .And they also have been caught stunned in J&K where western consulates lead by their mouthpiece western press having the field day.
     

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