India completes the nuclear triad

Discussion in 'Strategic Forces' started by LETHALFORCE, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.theworldweekly.com/reade...uth-asias-strategic-equation-on-its-head/6971

    st nuclear-armed submarine, sharply shifting the nuclear balance of power in South Asia by attaining a second-strike capability.

    Since conducting five nuclear weapons tests apiece in May 1998, South Asian rivals India and Pakistan have been steadily developing their strategic arsenals. The nuclear competition dates back to the region's first test detonation, by India in 1974, so both had developed the capability to deliver warheads, by warplanes and land-based missiles, before the 1998 tit-for-tat exchange of tests.

    The delivery capacity of both countries has since rapidly improved, with the development of opposing fleets of missiles capable of hitting any target on each other's territory, and the miniaturisation of plutonium warheads for battlefield use.

    Concurrently, they have built the fastest growing stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. Pakistan currently possesses enough fissile material to arm 100-120 nuclear warheads, while India isn’t far behind with 90-110, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The Council on Foreign Relations, a US think-tank, in November 2014 said Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme is the fastest growing in the world, and that it could enrich enough plutonium for 200 warheads by 2020.

    Only the five permanent members of the UN Security Council have more.

    Parallel to that, the strategic policies of both nations have been clearly stated: India has voluntarily adopted a no-first-strike policy, while Pakistan has refused to, citing the overwhelming numerical superiority of India's conventional forces. Thus, theoretically, the South Asian theatre had reached a strategic stalemate: India and Pakistan would be able to carry out a single wave of strikes against each other, after which both would become incapacitated and unable to launch any further nuclear weapons.


    Nuclear race

    That entire equation is about to be set on its head. India is undertaking the final trials of its first nuclear-armed Arihant-class submarine, which would make it the sixth country in the world capable of launching atomic weapons from air, land and maritime platforms, unnamed Indian officials have told the media. The INS Arihant could be commissioned as early as this month, providing India with a 'second-strike' capability - giving it a significant edge over Pakistan for the first time since the 1998 tests.

    [​IMG]
    Pakistan test-fires a Shaheen-III intermediate range ballistic weapon at an undisclosed launch site on December 11, 2015. ISPR/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    However, Pakistan is not India's sole strategic foe. It has also fought a 1962 war with China and competition has been growing between them for dominance in the Indian Ocean. Thus India plans to build four of the 6,000-ton, 110-metre-long Arihant submarines, to put it on a rough strategic par with China, which sent its four 'boomers' on patrol for the first time in 2015, the Washington Times newspaper reported in December.

    Nonetheless, India's impending induction of nuclear-armed submarines in 2013 prompted Pakistan to ask China, a close ally, to supply it with the technology to reproduce its Jin-class nuclear-armed submarines; Beijing has not taken a decision yet.

    “The reality of an arms race in South Asia is quite evident," Harsh V. Pant, an Asia security expert and professor of international relations at King’s College London, told The World Weekly. "For most Indian decision-makers, it is the China factor that remains the most important issue. Delhi also fears a China-Pakistan axis, and so it feels the need to be prepared for a ‘two-front’ war.”

    Thus South Asia has become the first region, ever, where three nuclear-armed combatants share borders that contain a population of 2.8 billion, nearly 39% of the world’s people, according to 2014 estimates by the US Census Bureau.

    The strategic game change in South Asia comes amid a recent push by India to perfect its ability to hit targets anywhere in China with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, and develop the ability to launch nuclear missiles from submarines.

    Since 2011, India and Pakistan have proved their ability to strike targets up to 1,300 kilometres away, the equivalent of anywhere on each other’s territory.

    In December 2014, the Indian military conducted its first successful test of the 4,000-kilometre-range Agni-IV, the first Indian ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads deep into Chinese territory; it is still undergoing user-trials, the last carried out last November, ahead of its induction.

    Similarly, India’s strategic weapons trailblazer, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), in January 2015 successfully tested the road-mobile delivery platform of its first true intercontinental ballistic missile, the Agni-V; with a range of up to 5,500 kilometres, it will extend India’s strategic reach to the rest of China when it is pressed into service.

    China’s Cold War-origin programme has included missiles with a range equivalent to India’s Agni-V since 1980.

    Both Agni variants have been fast-tracked for deployment by India's strategic forces command in the next couple of years.

    Those advancements, in turn, prompted Pakistan to demonstrate its ability in March and December 2015 to successfully fire an intermediate-range missile, the Shaheen-III missile, which splashed down in the Indian Ocean after flying nearly 2,800 kilometres, far enough to reach Israel. Pakistan has said that the Strategic Plans Division of its military is capable of further extending the reach of its Shaheen and Ghauri missile variants by adding additional solid or liquid-fuel 'stages' to their propulsion systems.


    Choppy seas

    India is also making progress on developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), having first test-fired a 750-kilometre-range K-15 variant in January 2013. Last September, the DRDO publicly acknowledged having readied the 3,500-kilometre-range K-4 SLBM.

    However, both are in early stages of development and India will not, in practice, become the world's sixth country with air, land and sea-based nuclear platforms until its SLBM arsenal becomes a proven technology.

    India needs to show the world it can capably and effectively operate the nuclear-armed submarine, Jon Grevatt, Asia-Pacific defence-industry analyst for IHS Jane’s told Bloomberg on February 26. The “important milestone" is part of a bigger strategy to ensure its security, he said. "The Arihant is a stepping stone for India. I don’t think it will alter the balance of power in the region unless India has a fleet of four or five such submarines."

    China began combat patrols of an armed nuclear-powered submarine last year, the Washington Times reported in December, citing the US Strategic Command and Defence Intelligence Agency.

    The Asian nuclear powers' technical capabilities are equivalent to what the Western nuclear triad powers - Britain, France and the US - achieved in the 1980s. Chinese and Indian nuclear submarines are relatively noisy and thus easily detectable by Western forces.

    They cannot, however, detect each other, adding a dangerous element of the unknown to their strategic competition, which has risen noticeably since the 2013 appointment of Chinese President Xi Jinping, with his plans to develop China's navy into an ocean-going force.

    [​IMG]
    A sand sculpture bearing a message of peace for India and Pakistan stands on the Indian beach of Puri on January 17, 2013. Biswaranjan Rout/AP Photo/Press Association Images

    Provocatively, China has deployed conventionally armed submarines in the Indian Ocean since 2014, with the vessels calling at Chinese-operated ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to pick up supplies, much to India's chagrin. In retaliation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since maintained the presence of a navy vessel in the South China Sea, where China is embroiled in a territorial dispute with five neighbouring countries that also pits it against the US.

    The maritime frictions will worsen as China and India extend the range of operations of their nuclear-armed submarines in due course, analysts said.

    "You will probably see more friction in maritime sub-regions such as the South China Sea or the Bay of Bengal, which China and India increasingly view as their future bastions" for nuclear ballistic-missile submarines, Iskander Rehman, a postdoctoral fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution’s foreign policy programme, told Bloomberg. "Tensions will no doubt arise from subsurface encounters in such areas, particularly as both conventional and nuclear submarines continue to proliferate throughout the Indo-Pacific region."

    In turn, those frictions could persuade China to supply Pakistan, its biggest defence customer, with technology to build Jin-class nuclear-armed submarines, building on the tensions with India, analysts said.

    "There will likely be a long phase of initial instability as China and India start deploying nuclear missiles on submarines," the Lowy Institute for International Policy, a US think-tank, said in a report issued last September. "Chinese and Indian nuclear-armed submarines - along with possible Pakistani... units - may remain detectable by adversaries, making their activities unpredictable in times of crisis."
     
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  3. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/needed-a-nuclear-triad


    Needed, a nuclear triad
    India awaits the third and most elusive leg of the triad, INS Arihant, an SSBN.

    [​IMG]
    ndia's desired objective of possessing a fully-operational nuclear triad will be instrumental in defining and providing New Delhi with a credible survivable deterrent. Presently, India awaits the third and perhaps, most elusive, underwater leg of its nuclear triad, namely, the INS Arihant, an indigenous nuclear-powered submarine armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles (SSBN). Likely to be fully operational and out at sea by early 2013, the "harbour-acceptance trials" and the "sea-acceptance trials" of INS Arihant have been slated for this year and upon their completion, the SSBN shall be commissioned into the Indian Navy. As the Indian Navy stands poised to complete the nation's nuclear triad, it is expected that the final nuclear insurance will come from the seas once the INS Arihant begins undertaking deterrent patrols.

    Given India's policy of "retaliation only", it is prudent to assume that the survivability of India's nuclear arsenal will delineate its second-strike capability, thereby ensuring credible deterrence. India's nuclear doctrine calls for sufficient, survivable and operationally prepared nuclear forces; a robust command and control system; effective intelligence and early warning capabilities; comprehensive planning and training for operations in line with strategy; and the requisite primary and alternate chain of command to employ nuclear forces and weapons.

    The possession of a nuclear triad primarily includes development of three major delivery components, namely strategic bombers (carrier-based or land-based, armed with bombs or missiles), land-based missiles and SSBNs. India's force structure is largely based upon its existing military assets including the Sukhoi-30 MKIs and Mirage-2000s ensuring that India's limited arsenal can execute a successful second strike to cause damage that would be unacceptable to the adversary and therefore influence its cost-benefit analysis of undertaking a first strike to begin with.

    Besides, more recently in April 2012, the Indian Navy formally inducted the INS Chakra, an 8,140 tonne nuclear-powered Akula-II class attack submarine, armed with the 300 km range "Klub-S" land-attack cruise missiles and advanced torpedoes, leased from Russia for a period of 10 years. However, the INS Chakra falls short of providing India with its long-awaited third leg of the nuclear weapons triad, since it will not be armed with long-range strategic missiles.

    Nevertheless, the INS Chakra strengthens India's underwater combat arm by offering operational flexibility in blue-water operations, and additionally presenting with the capability to deploy a potent weapons delivery platform at a place of its choosing at long distances in stealth. In the meanwhile, India also looks towards its second SSBN following induction of INS Arihant, named the INS Aridhaman.

    Additionally, the successful test-launch of the long-range Agni V missile by India in April 2012 has undoubtedly bolstered India's deterrent, and the Agni V is being considered as the mainstay of India's nuclear delivery vectors. The accuracy of the Agni V missile can only be ascertained with frequent validation tests, before it gets fully inducted into the Indian armed forces by 2014-15. In that sense, it will be another two years before New Delhi sees the fully integrated and operational version of the Agni V missile.

    A fully functional and cohesive nuclear triad force structure composition that includes nuclear-capable long-range aircraft, inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and SSBNs, with actual weaponisation being held back, (i.e., nuclear weapons in a mated format) will be the ultimate platform for India's nuclear triad.

    That the mere possession of nuclear weapons paves way for an implicit threat of use or actual use, a well propounded "no-first-use" of nuclear weapons is India's elementary commitment, and in furtherance to this reference, every possible effort should be made to persuade as many nations who are in possession of nuclear weapons, to join an international treaty which seeks to ban its first use. Till the time nuclear weapons will be present in the world, the related threats shall also remain. The sole permanent solution to this quandary remains a global commitment towards achieving universal, verifiable and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament, which will enhance and grant a sense of permanence to the conceptual as well as operational levels of collective security. This is a cause, long espoused by India, and being a national security objective, New Delhi should continue its efforts towards seeking to achieve the goal of a nuclear weapon-free world.
     
  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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  5. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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  6. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    What are these "boomers" ?
    ...........................
     
  7. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    This must be an old article. Isn't Arihant already up and running? Hasn't inducted nuclear missiles yet?
     
  8. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Also, can the Brahmos be fired from submarines? Or just K-4s?
     
  9. Razor

    Razor CIDs from Tamilnadu Senior Member

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    Military slang for ballistic Missile subs.
     
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  10. Razor

    Razor CIDs from Tamilnadu Senior Member

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    I don't think the sub has been inducted into navy.
     
  11. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    India's first nuclear submarine INS Arihant: All you should not miss

    Having passed deep sea drilling and launch tests, India's first nuclear armed submarine, INS Arihant, is now ready for complete operations. The deep sea and launch tests had been going on for the last five months and the submarine is now ready for its induction into the Indian naval fleet.

    http://indiatoday.intoday.in/education/story/ins-arihant/1/602901.html



    All tests are finished. What are we waiting for?
     
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  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Brahmos is too big for the tubes. Sub would have to be redesigned or Brahmos modified. Nirbhay will most likely be going in the subs first? Also have klubs.
     
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  13. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

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    I don't think triad has been complete in the case of India . Yes India has the capability to launch SLBMs but it is still short from a full phased triad . A single SSBN is a start and definitely not enough but its a start. It is unlikely that Arihant will ever go on a deterrent patrol instead its job profile will be bastion protection .
    India has historically maintained nuclear ambiguity and would continue to do so in the future to maintain its credible minimum deterrence posture .
    India already has commissioned ELF facility probably operating at 80 +/-5 Hz near VLF facility at INS Kattabomman transmitting at 18 khz both were built with the help of Russia. This ELF facility is housed in a nuclear hardened bunker and has the ability to to penetrate deep down below the surface of the ocean depending on the salinity characteristics at 35.56 parts and mineral present in the Indian ocean assuming bastion protection role for Arihant the ELF signal will penetrate upto 80 to 100 meters .
    Arihant which has yet to fire SLBMs and lack of mating of warheads clearly proves the lack of triad capability currently by India and the lack of range of its SLBMs will hamper it further. India has historically maintained a closed control of its warheads and will continue to do so which proves India will unlikely to have a full fledged naval nuclear deterrent like China which had only started its deterrent patrols couple of years ago.

    The thought of Pakistan having a nuclear submarine is hilarious in itself....
     
  14. Razor

    Razor CIDs from Tamilnadu Senior Member

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    There is nuclear hardened bunker at INS Kattaboman?
    When did that come up?
    Also just curious where else does India have nuclear hardened bunkers, any idea?
     
  15. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    @Razor, it is normal to have underground bunkers to protect vital equipment from attack.

    I think such facilities will be there in all major military bases.
     
  16. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

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    Most of the tests on Arihant are for
    1) Activity of Alpha decay , decay mode , exposure contribution.
    2) Activity of gamma decays , decay mode , exposure contribution
    3) Reactor dead time if the reactor shut down and the xenon build up
    4) Health of the steam generation equipment , the primary loop etc
    5) Health of the containment vessel , the pressure characteristics of the vessel .
    6) The gamma absorption of the lead plates
    7) The overall shielding capabilities of the shielding complex overall
    8) The xenon formation , the fission products
    9) The ratio of Xe-54 , Te-52 and I-53 all have different half lives the end stage stable Ba formation
    10) Xenon iodine equilibrium
    11) Control of xenon poisoning which depends upon neutron flux , fission cross section , fuel utilization factor etc
    12 )The moderator absorption co-efficient .
    13 ) Overall reactivity control of the reactor .
    other than
    The SL spectrum , Cavitation signature , change of CG of the system at missile launch event etc
    so a lot of tests go into before your first SSBN is ready.
     
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  17. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Wiki says dia is 0.6 meter. Length is 8.4 meter. I think it is not designed for underwater launch. Just that.
     
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  18. Razor

    Razor CIDs from Tamilnadu Senior Member

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    I didn't see any underground bunkers when I went there. Maybe they didn't show me. :crying:

    But that was many many years back.
     
  19. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

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    When the ELF station will be ready finally they decided to nuclear harden the station . The complex antenna can be destroyed with a sub surface detonation of any warhead which can deliver 1000 psi pressure and we will lose control of our SSBNs.

    Russian ELF transmission message . Since we took the help of the Russians we probably have that same system.

    [​IMG]

    THE KOLA PENINSULA TRANSMITTER FACILITY

    The Russian ELF transmitter Zevs, was during the early 1990’s detected around the globe, by several radio noise measurment systems operated by Stanford University. The 82 Hz signal was even received at the base at Arrival Height in Antarctic ( 78°S 167°W ). At that time was there no information available about other ELF transmitters, then the US 76 Hz system. And the contrast could not have been bigger, there was an extensive literature covering the development and deployment of the US WTF / MTF dual antenna transmitting system.

    The Stanford University scientists, quickly assumed that the source for the 82 Hz signal was in Russia. This logical deduction was based upon the comparatively large signal strength of the 82 Hz transmission at the Søndrestrømfjord – . They also predicted the construction and orientation of the transmitter antenna as a long horizontal electric dipole, oriented in an approximate east/west ( EW) direction.

    This has since been confirmed by Russian sources; the transmitter consists of two swept-frequency generators of sinusoidal voltage and two parallel horizontal grounded antennas, each about 60 km long. The generators provide 200-300 A currents in the antennas, in the frequency range from 20 Hz to 250 Hz
    But there is one correction to be made; the two parallel 60 km long antennas is not the antenna at all, but the feedline. The actual antenna is the earth itself. By building the antenna at a location with a poor effective conductivity of the ground, and by grounding the ends of the feedline / antenna, the signal is forced deep down into the earth, making the earth itself the effective radiating element.
    The actual look of the visible part, the feedline, of this giant antenna, is much like the old telegraph wires hung up on telegraph poles. Down from the last pole at the end of each antenna leg, there is a thick copper wire down to the ground and installed deep in a borehole, making up for the earth connection. (See the open Lab article “Reception of submarine communication systems” by IK1QFK and OH2LX for an principal sketch of an ELF antenna system ).

    Calculations performed on data collected back in 1990, also show us that the 82 Hz Zevs ELF transmitter is 10 dB more powerful then the US Navy 76 Hz ELF transmissions from the dual WMT/MTF sites. We shall not delve nor exclude someone, with complicated mathematical explanations, but here is some facts:

    The magnetic moment M ( Am² ) of a horizontal magnetic dipole (HMD) is expressed like this:
    M=ILW
    L is the antenna length ( m )
    I is the antenna current ( A )
    W is the effective vertical extent, or depth, of the antenna ( m )
    W is found using a formula based on propagation constants and corresponding skin depth of the individual conductive layers of the ground beneath the ELF antenna. For simplicity we declare that W=h1 where h1 is the depth of the first conductive layer.

    If we compare with the US 76 Hz ELF transmitter:
    The average effective conductivity of the earth beneath the WTF / MTF antennas is approximately 2.4 x 10-4S/m, which gives an effective depth of W ~2.6 km at a frequency of 76 Hz.
    For the very low conductive Kola Peninsula area, there is a first layer with a conductivity of approximately 10-5 S/m down to a depth ( h1 ) of close to 10 km, beneath which is a second layer with a conductivity of approximately 10-3 S/m.

    For the combined WTF /MTF antennas, operating at 76 Hz we have:

    M ~ 2x300 (A) x 22.5 ( km ) x 2.6 ( km ) = 3.51 x 104 ( A km² )

    Since the magnetic moment for the Zevs transmitter back in 1990 was assumed approximately 10 dB greater then that of the WTF / MTF combination, it must equal 1.1 x 105 ( A km² )

    For an antenna length of 55 km, the required current I is 200 A. That is, at 82 Hz:

    M ~ 200 ( A) x 55 ( km ) x 10 ( km ) = 1.1 x 105 ( A km² )

    Because of the very low efficiency, the effective radiated power is only a couple of Watt’s (!!) but that is enough to secure near global coverage at these frequencies, when the earth itself is the actual antenna.

    http://www.vlf.it/zevs/zevs.htm

    Don't know but most probably 333 rd regiment , 444 th , 555 th missile regiments etc they are not revealed .
     
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  20. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Huh? Where did you go?

    Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk
     
  21. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    It's father yakhont/onyx does not have sub launch version. I know at one time navy wanted to try to fit in kilos. I think totally abandoned that idea.

    http://www.deagel.com/Anti-Ship-Missiles/BrahMos_a001774001.aspx

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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