India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

[Chinmoy]

TERCOM does have that limitation, but INS doesn't. My point is, whether GPS or not, you simply cant rely that, the weapons would be ineffective. You got to have a solid defence prepared for your troops before advancing. Anyway I don't see these CMs to be effective against any major Indian cities, they would have to use in in their territory for greater effectiveness.

 

[no smoking]

1. We have the sattelites for the job. Pakistan does not have enough depth, hence the sattelites which cover our domestic needs, can cover Pak as well. Again, we have been sending military sattelites for some time now. So, if not already, soon dedicated military satellites to cover Pakistan will soon be there. May be you don't know about ISC.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Space_Cell

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Space_Cell

The number of satelites is far from enough to provide 24x7 watching on a country as big as Pakistan.

2. And how do you know? I presume you are neither a technician of DRDO involved in the development of the missiles nor a personnel at strategic command to have the knowledge. So it is just hot air. Btw, Agni series ain't developed by Pakistanis with Chinese help, hence accurate enough. The claimed accuracy figure is 25m for Agni-I, and for roasting porki missiles by a nuke warhead, how accurate do you think it needs to be?

Oh, yes, we know because the only way to improve the accuracy is NUMEROUS TESTS.
Only through this, your scientists can find out how different environments will impact your missile's performance.

3. What the Strategic Command's training parameters are and what training they get for what probable missions is now an open secret to Chinese forum members? Funny, I doubt even the Indian forum members with armed forces background know that. Or are you the new clairevoyent messiha dropped from heaven to save Porki souls?

Well, just look at the equipments of Indian nuclear force, you will basically know what kind mission they designed for themselves.
Most Indian members don't want to know what their country's No First Use means.

4. How long a time does a canisterised missile or a silo based missile need for launch? I would guess from the word go, not more than a few minutes. So when you may think that Yanks have some superman to prevent launch, I doubt they can effect anything within those few minutes.

Few mintutes? You know who is the fastest one to shoot their missile? Russians, they need at least 5 minutes to shoot their missiles after their launching vehicles reaching the launch site (not the word go).

For India and China? Could be hours as both of us have to mate the warhead first after the alarm.

Now that I have proven that your post is nothing but a hot stinky gas manifesting itself into digital form in texts and appearing in this forum, I would like to point out this underlines part of my original comment : but that would be counter productive, won't it?

You prove nothing but the fact you know nothing about a nuclear war.

What did you think it means? In common inderstanding the sentence means that appeoach would not be productive from preventing a Nuke war. Whether nuke is used by us or them, the fall out will hurt to some degree. So that is a step when can assuredly prevent a nuke strike from Porkies, will not be the prefered 1st step for India if India can help it.
Learn the context before commenting.

Unfortunately, your own generals who make up your nuclear plan don't agree with you. Go back to read their paperwork before dreaming about nuclear war.

 

[jackprince]

The number of satelites is far from enough to provide 24x7 watching on a country as big as Pakistan.



Oh, yes, we know because the only way to improve the accuracy is NUMEROUS TESTS.
Only through this, your scientists can find out how different environments will impact your missile's performance.



Well, just look at the equipments of Indian nuclear force, you will basically know what kind mission they designed for themselves.
Most Indian members don't want to know what their country's No First Use means.



Few mintutes? You know who is the fastest one to shoot their missile? Russians, they need at least 5 minutes to shoot their missiles after their launching vehicles reaching the launch site (not the word go).

For India and China? Could be hours as both of us have to mate the warhead first after the alarm.



You prove nothing but the fact you know nothing about a nuclear war.



Unfortunately, your own generals who make up your nuclear plan don't agree with you. Go back to read their paperwork before dreaming about nuclear war.

So says the all knowing master!

When do you think the nukes will be launched? Suddenly? Or when the tension is high and people are prepped and ready? Why would you think during a high tension situation warheads would not be mated with missiles and kept prepared for launch? Solid fueld canisterised missiles can be kept ready with warheads for months!

How many Agni-I tests have been done, do you have any idea? Do you think without total satisfaction of its accuracy it was inducted? The Agni-I series have been in service for near about 4 years.

I ask you kindly dont bring your brainfarts here. You act like you are leading our Strategic Command!

 

[Compersion]

The only start that will make pakistan cold and their nuclear ability lessoned is when Baluchistan is freed. And it won't be India that does it (does not mean we won't support it).

 

[Dushyant]

Now the secret is open, Pakistanis chose Nawaz Sharrif trip to US as an opportunity to declare that they have developed low yield tactical nuclear weapons to crush the Indian Cold Start moves. The security services had known about all over the world of this development. But the Pakistanis chose New York as the venue to discuss it.

US has been concerned for the last many years of the Pakistani rapid increase of the nuclear stockpile. They had put their own think tanks to examine this development in the subcontinent. These think tanks all concluded the same that the Pakistani stockpile growth is true and it is a danger.

Where as Pakistanis are boasting about their low yield nuclear weapons, US is concerned about its growth and possible use which will start a nuclear war with ramifications far beyond South Asia.

US has various options at the table I.e. Offer them a nuclear deal lesser in ramifications than offered to India but never the less a deal in return Pakistan would place the nuclear weapons and its whole nuclear program under international control. Failing a deal like that, sanctions will be imposed.

A nuclear blackmail by Pakistan of India and the whole world, US activate its network inside Pakistan to gain control of these weapons etc.

What is India's option at this juncture;

1. Do India have similar weapons to threaten a retaliation about four times larger,

2. Get rid of Cold Start doctrine and surrender to Pakistani whims,

3. Go ahead and use the Cold Start Doctrine, even if Pakistan was to use low yield nuclear weapons but in return anhiliate its cities and infrastructure that is Pakistan goes back to Stone Age,

4. Let US deal with this danger, they have successfully warded off the Iranian nuclear blackmail. For that solid friendship with US is essential.

Let us talk in this forum of this emerging danger.

Cold Start doctrine is now so much in public diaspora that Indian military now would have build up a new strategy. But as you have asked what should be India's strategy against Pakistani tactical nukes. Tactical nukes don't do much damage in comparison to Nuclear missiles. Tactical nukes only affects the area under a kilometer or two. Why Pakistan thinks that tactical nukes can be used against Indian Cold Doctrine? The Cold Start doctrine is intended to allow India's conventional forces to perform holding attacks in order to prevent a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan in case of a conflict. Pakistan wants to neutralize the fast moving Indian troops into their territory with Tactical Nukes.

What Indian forces can do??

When invading Pakistan stay close to cities and town i.e, any place near to a populous area. This will make Pakistani forces to think twice before bombing any area with human population. Forces can keep moving forward by the keeping distance close to cities and town.

India can develop system to differentiate between conventional missiles and tactical nukes. System must be able to predict the location of strike. Indian troops then can spread out or move out as tactical nukes don't have enough area under it's impact as I already mentioned.

India should not develop tactical nukes. Yes!!! As NORAD is capable of measuring the yield of nuke. If Pakistan uses tactical nukes any where in it's own territory or in Indian territory, NORAD can measure the yield of nukes and the reading will make it clear that low yield bomb has been used and US will know that Pakistan is the one cause India doesn't posses low yield nukes . As soon as Pakistan use tactical nukes it brings India in the position of using it's Nukes. No first use policy clearly states any use of nukes against us or our troops will give us the moral authority to use nukes against our opposition.

 

[no smoking]

So says the all knowing master!

When do you think the nukes will be launched? Suddenly? Or when the tension is high and people are prepped and ready? Why would you think during a high tension situation warheads would not be mated with missiles and kept prepared for launch? Solid fueld canisterised missiles can be kept ready with warheads for months!

Don't you think the period of "months" is long enough for Americans, and Chinese to notice your movement?

How many Agni-I tests have been done, do you have any idea? Do you think without total satisfaction of its accuracy it was inducted? The Agni-I series have been in service for near about 4 years.

Well, each of P5 had kind of missile with CEP of over 300m in their early stage. So, geting the missile in servcie doesn't mean your accuracy is good enough to target silo.

I ask you kindly dont bring your brainfarts here. You act like you are leading our Strategic Command!

Well, you are talking like India has some alien technologies.

 

[Bhadra]

Army’s new battle groups to be field-tested this month
​

Published May 5, 2019 | By admin SOURCE: Tribune News Service

A military field exercise to validate the much-awaited concept of integrated battle groups (IBGs) of the Indian Army is slated to be conducted at end of this month.This is the first step among the several to restructure the Army to make it leaner and more agile. The test was put on hold after the Balakote airstrike on February 26 as the Army units were in state of readiness following the tension between India and Pakistan.

The IBG is working on “integrating existing elements of infantry, tank regiments, artillery, UAVs, engineers and signals”. This, if done, can be the first tweak to the “cold start doctrine” (first made public in 2004 and planned after operation Parakaram of 2002).The IBGs are expected to bring a significant operational change in the Army. Topmost commanders of the Army, had in October last year, decided to restructure the force in phases to convert it into a lean and mean 21st century force.

In October last year, it was decided that all suggested operational aspects such as having integrated battle groups (IBGs) will be validated in exercises in the field.

An IBG, with six battalions of infantry, armoured and artillery, will be commanded by Major General and placed directly under the Corps.
The focus will be integration to enhance operational and functional efficiency, optimise budget expenditure, facilitate force modernisation and address aspirations.

The test of the IBG is among the few steps initiated by Army Chief General Bipin Rawat on restructuring the Army.
The 1.3 million-strong Army has undergone a change in tactics, but its size is not matching with limited budgets the government can allocate. There are four major in-house studies.

The study on “Re-organisation and Rightsising of the Indian Army” has reviewed operational structures to make them efficient and future ready by taking into account the operational situation on western and northern borders. The IBGs are a part of this.

http://idrw.org/armys-new-battle-groups-to-be-field-tested-this-month/#more-199992 .

 

[Haldiram]

Army’s new battle groups to be field-tested this month
​

Published May 5, 2019 | By admin SOURCE: Tribune News Service

A military field exercise to validate the much-awaited concept of integrated battle groups (IBGs) of the Indian Army is slated to be conducted at end of this month.This is the first step among the several to restructure the Army to make it leaner and more agile. The test was put on hold after the Balakote airstrike on February 26 as the Army units were in state of readiness following the tension between India and Pakistan.

The IBG is working on “integrating existing elements of infantry, tank regiments, artillery, UAVs, engineers and signals”. This, if done, can be the first tweak to the “cold start doctrine” (first made public in 2004 and planned after operation Parakaram of 2002).The IBGs are expected to bring a significant operational change in the Army. Topmost commanders of the Army, had in October last year, decided to restructure the force in phases to convert it into a lean and mean 21st century force.

In October last year, it was decided that all suggested operational aspects such as having integrated battle groups (IBGs) will be validated in exercises in the field.

An IBG, with six battalions of infantry, armoured and artillery, will be commanded by Major General and placed directly under the Corps.
The focus will be integration to enhance operational and functional efficiency, optimise budget expenditure, facilitate force modernisation and address aspirations.

The test of the IBG is among the few steps initiated by Army Chief General Bipin Rawat on restructuring the Army.
The 1.3 million-strong Army has undergone a change in tactics, but its size is not matching with limited budgets the government can allocate. There are four major in-house studies.

The study on “Re-organisation and Rightsising of the Indian Army” has reviewed operational structures to make them efficient and future ready by taking into account the operational situation on western and northern borders. The IBGs are a part of this.

http://idrw.org/armys-new-battle-groups-to-be-field-tested-this-month/#more-199992 .

I hope they do another #Brasstacks.

 

[Bhadra]

I hope they do another #Brasstacks.

Sir, Brasstacks was not for cold start but for a very very hot start. It was conducted to test "Sunderji Doctrine" of a very large, swift and deep thrust lines by Mechanisation Force into Pakistan to break up its integrity and cohesiveness simultaneously drawing Pakistani forces to the battle and decisively decimate them.

Brasstacks was for a full fledged conventional War exercise involving complete Indian Army and was conducted over a period of more than six months but mainly in Punjab and deserts of Rajasthan.

The plan as stated in the press subsequently was to threaten / attack Pakistan actually, develop operations opposite Thar desert to draw major Pakistani forces but the real attack would be launched astride J&K to free POK.

Pakistan was badly shaken and concentrated its Armoured Divisions in Punjab and North to save their vital areas. The press, bureaucracy and diplomats as always instigated Rajiv Gandhi against Sunderji and that put cold water over the exercise and the actual plans.

So much so that Sundarji started fearing for his "life".

 

[Bhadra]

One could see this :.......................

 

[Bhadra]

Could also see this .......................

 

[Haldiram]

Sir, Brasstacks was not for cold start but for a very very hot start. It was conducted to test "Sunderji Doctrine" of a very large, swift and deep thrust lines by Mechanisation Force into Pakistan to break up its integrity anfd cohesiveness simultaneously drawing Pakistani forces to the battle and decisively decimate them.

Brasstacks was for a full fledged conventional War exercise involving complete Indian Army and was conducted over a period of more than six months but mainly in Punjab and deserts of Rajasthan.

The plan as stated in the press subsequently was to threaten / attack Pakistan actually, develop operations opposite Thar desert to draw major Pakistani forces but the real attack would be launched astride J&K to free POK.

Pakistan was badly shaken and concentrated its Armoured Divisions in Punjab and North to save their vital areas. The press, bureaucracy and diplomats as always instigated Rajiv Gandhi against Sunderji and that put cold water over the exercise and the actual plans.

So much so that Sundarji started fearing for his "life".

That's why we need to do it again, this time with the blessings of the government.

 

[Bhadra]

That's why we need to do it again, this time with the blessings of the government.

Brasstacks was conducted when India and Pakistan had not exploded their nuclear bombs.
Post Pokhran there is threat of Nuclear War in the subcontinent.
Hence concentration of such large forces - almost all formations of Indian Army on Pakistan border has a risk of first nuclear strike by Pakistan.
So, there a need to find a way how India can bash up Pakistan without inviting a nuclear war.
Cold start is one of the methods being contemplated.

Sundarji doctrine of large scale operations to decimate Pakistani Army still remains in place but under nuclear conditions. However, cold start is a limited war doctrine to "punish" and deter Pakistan.

 

[Haldiram]

Brasstacks was conducted when India and Pakistan had not exploded their nuclear bombs.
Post Pokhran there is threat of Nuclear War in the subcontinent.
Hence concentration of such large forces - almost all formations of Indian Army on Pakistan border has a risk of first nuclear strike by Pakistan.
So, there a need to find a way how India can bash up Pakistan without inviting a nuclear war.
Cold start is one of the methods being contemplated.

Sundarji doctrine of large scale operations to decimate Pakistani Army still remains in place but under nuclear conditions. However, cold start is a limited war doctrine to "punish" and deter Pakistan.

So what is the political end game of Cold Start? the army will make shallow thrusts, capture small patches and negotiate with Pakistan for what in return? POK?

 

[nongaddarliberal]

So what is the political end game of Cold Start? the army will make shallow thrusts, capture small patches and negotiate with Pakistan for what in return? POK?

The entire point of cold start is punishment rather than a negotiation tool. It was meant to form a conventional deterrent from our side.

 

[Bhadra]

So what is the political end game of Cold Start? the army will make shallow thrusts, capture small patches and negotiate with Pakistan for what in return? POK?

End State :

Firstly, a deterrent against proxy war.
Secondly, if deterrence fails, punish Pakistan for proxy war.
Thirdly, ask for leader like Hazfiz Sayid or Mahsood Azahar to be handed over.
Thirdly, some destruction of Pakistani armed Forces.
Fourthly, permanent possession and occupation of some key points of Pakistani territory - say Hajipir.

Overall - raise the cost of proxy war for Pakistan.

 

[Hari Sud]

Could also see this .......................

Too much flimsy and long in introduction. Need a better script writer.

 

[sthf]

Gospel for every Indian who intends to call out Pakistan's nuclear bluff. Pakistan will run out of nukes before it makes a serious dent in IA's offensive formations. This "Hum Bum maar denge" is so that random Abduls can sleep at night.

https://www.princeton.edu/sgs/faculty-staff/zia-mian/Limited-Military-Utility-of-Pakistans.pdf

Also Abhijjet Iyer Mitra explained it rather nicely.

 

[Bhadra]

Too much flimsy and long in introduction. Need a better script writer.

I entirely agree. Let us have you !

 

[Bhadra]

Cold start doctrine has also been called India's Pro-Active Doctrine. Pro active implies India's willingness and readiness to launch a Military Operation against an adversary and initiation of of a military conflict or a War. It further implies that India will launch swift offensive actions into enemy's territory.

This itself has military implications but first let us look into basis and basics of Indian Army's possible Doctrines in the past through their past Wars and posturing.

History:

If past wars of 1947-48,1965, 1971 or 1999 have shown something , Indian doctrines seems to have been to be ready for a Pakistani Offensive into own territory, discern Pakistani thrust lines, Channelise the enemy into a favourable areas, hold them and then destroy enemy forces by defensive actions - meanwhile be ready to launch a Counter Offensive into Pakistan with a large force.

In 1947 India has to react to Pakistan aggression in J&K. In 1965 It was Pakistan which launched the Operation Gibraltar and Grand Slam into Indian territory. In 1971, having launched an air preemptive strikes, Pakistan launched offensive at four places - Poonch, Sambha, Fazilka and Longewala. India had to react.
In 1999 massively in Kargil to restore the LC.

This remained the central point of Indian responses in almost all wars with Pakistan. This was possibly the outcome of certain realities / assumptions :

# India did not want to be termed as an aggressor (weak international support situation with West and US accusing Indai of a pro Soviet Union stance coupled with weak economy).
# Very wide (long) frontage of Indian border with Pakistan where multiple options to launch offensive were available to Pakistan / India. It could be that Indian planner thought it beneficial that Pakistan are made to reveal their hands and then orchestrate operations accordingly.
# Lack of depth on Pakistani side and adequate depth available to India might have made Indian planners to make "trade territory for depth" initially as part of operational plans.
# Balance of forces favoured India after about seven days of military operations if Pakistan launch their major forces as preemptive. India then had better chances to end the war favourably.
# Indian threat perception from two fronts post 1962 and Sino -Pak nexus firstly did not give a very favourable balance of forces situation against Pakistan in initial stages and secondly it made launching pre-emptive operation by India that much difficult. We have witnessed this threat growing from one and half front to two front threat perception. Any Indian planner would take that into consideration for sure

In posturing as at many times in past and specially in 2001 during Op Parakram, it became abundantly clear that the depth of India and Indian forces necessity and balanced deployment of forces in depth was unfavorable so far as posturing against Pakistan to show a force and pose a credible threat in desired time frame was concerned. It also became adequately clear that Indian Strike Corps were large and bulky and holding Corps were not properly structured, attuned and exercised to undertake limited offensive actions. There were lacunas in Indian infrastructure, logistics, storage areas, fuel storage,replenishment and repair echelons in areas near the Pakistani borders to support operation from the line of march. It was dependent on deployment of second echlon logistics elements.