India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded history

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by TrueSpirit1, Dec 5, 2014.

  1. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Statistics: A look into the largest economies of the past ​


    Which will be the world's largest economies in the future? Various studies suggest that it would be either China or India. But what about the largest economies in the past--1CE (Common Era), 1000CE, 1500CE and so on?

    Interestingly, even these periods were dominated by the Asian giants. For more than 1,700 years, India and China were the world's largest economies. Their dominance ended after the industrial revolution and the subsequent imperialist expansion of European nations which drained the world's wealth to the West.


    That's what data on historical GDP calculated by the late Angus Maddison, British economist and scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, shows.

    Read more at:
    Statistics: A look into the largest economies of the past - The Economic Times
     
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  3. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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  4. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    This is very well known.

    I will try to post MJ Akbar's speech on this particular topic made in Canada.
     
  5. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    HISTORY OF INDIAN ECONOMY
    Ancient times till 1707 AD
    The history of India begins with the dawn of Indus Valley civilization which
    flourished between 3500 BC to 1800 BC. The Indus civilization's economy appears to
    have depended significantly on trade, which was facilitated by advances in transport. Its
    citizens practiced agriculture, domesticated animals, made sharp tools and weapons
    from copper, bronze and tin and traded in terracotta pots, beads, gold and silver,
    coloured gem stones such as turquoise and lapis lazuli, metals, flints, seashells and
    pearls. They used to ships to reach Mesopotamia where they sold gold, copper and
    jewellery. Around 600 BC, the Mahajanapadas minted punch-marked silver coins. The
    period was marked by intensive trade activity and urban development. By 300 B.C.,
    when Middle East was under the Greek Seleucid and Ptolemaic empires the Maurya
    Empire (c. 321 -185 BC) united most of the Indian subcontinent. The political unity and
    military security allowed for a common economic system and enhanced trade and
    commerce, with increased agricultural productivity. The empire spent considerable
    resources building roads and maintaining them throughout India. The improved
    infrastructure combined with increased security, greater uniformity in measurements, and
    increasing usage of coins as currency enhanced trade. For the next 1500 years, India
    produced its classical civilizations which generated wealth in huge amount. Between 1st
    and 17th centuries AD, India is estimated to have had the largest economy of the ancient
    and medieval world, controlling between one third and one fourth of the world's wealth.

    During the Mughal period (1526–1858 AD) India experienced unprecedeneted
    prosperity in history. The gross domestic product of India in the 16th century was
    estimated at about 25.1% of the world economy. An estimate of India's pre-colonial
    economy puts the annual revenue of Emperor Akbar's treasury in 1600 AD at £17.5
    million (in contrast to the entire treasury of Great Britain two hundred years later in 1800
    AD, which totalled £16 million). The gross domestic product of Mughal India in 1600 AD
    was estimated at about 24.3% the world economy, the second largest in the world. By
    this time the Mughal Empire had expanded to include almost 90 per cent of South Asia,
    and enforced a uniform customs and tax-administration system. In 1700 AD the
    exchequer of the Emperor Aurangzeb reported an annual revenue of more than £100
    million.
    Given below are the figures produced by Professor Angus Maddison,
    Emeritus Professor at the University of Groningen, Netherlands, and Honorary Fellow at
    Cambridge University, estimating India's wealth relative to world GDP for the years 1000
    AD, 1500 AD, 1600 AD, and 1700 AD. India's share of world GDP was slightly more than
    a quarter in the year 1000 AD, and slightly less than a quarter between 1500 AD and
    1700 AD.
    GDP in millions of 1990 International DollarsYears 1000AD 1500 AD 1600 AD 1700 AD
    India 33,750 60,500 74,250 90,750
    China 26,550 61,800 96,000 82,800
    West Europe 10,165 44,345 65,955 83,395
    World Total 116,790 247,116 329,417 371,369
    In the 18th century, Mughals were replaced by the Marathas in much of central
    India while the other small regional kingdoms who were mostly late Mughal tributaries
    such as the Nawabs in the north and the Nizams in the south. The British imperial
    empire began to grow in India in the middle of 18th Century. The phase of decline of
    Indian industry set in.
    British rule
    The British East India Company whose political power gradually expanded in India
    from 1757 onwards, used huge revenue generated by the provinces under its rule for
    purchasing Indian raw materials, spices and goods. Thus the continuous inflow of bullion
    that used to come into India on account of foreign trade stopped altogether. The Colonial
    government used land revenue for waging wars in India and Europe leaving little for
    development of India. In short span of 80 years (1780-1860 AD) under Colonial rule,
    India changed from being an exporter of processed goods for which it received payment
    in bullion, to being an exporter of raw materials and a buyer of manufactured
    goods. More specifically, in the 1750s, mostly fine cotton and silk was exported from
    India to markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa; by 1850s raw materials, which chiefly
    consisted of raw cotton, opium, and indigo, accounted for most of India's exports.
    The ruthless exploitation under British colonial rule completely devastated India‟s
    economy. India‟s population was subject to frequent famines, had one of the world's
    lowest life expectancies, suffered from pervasive malnutrition and was largely illiterate.
    As per British economist, Angus Maddison India's share of the world income went from
    27% in 1700 AD (compared to Europe's share of 23%) to 3% in 1950.
    INDIA AFTER INDEPENDENCE
    1950-1979
    After India got independence from colonial rule in 1947, the process of rebuilding the
    economy started. India went for centralized planning . The Five Year Plans which
    successfully transformed erstwhile USSR were made a tool for development. First five
    year plan for the development of Indian economy came into implementation in 1952. Being largely a agrarian economy, investments were made in creation of irrigation
    facilities, construction of dams and laying infrastructure. Due importance was given to
    establishment of modern industries, modern scientific and technological institutes,
    development of space and nuclear programmes. However, despite all efforts on
    economic front, the country did not develop at rapid pace largely due to lack of capital
    formation, cold war politics, defense expenditure, and rise in population and inadequate
    infrastructure. From 1951 to 1979, the economy grew at an average rate of about 3.1
    percent a year in constant prices, or at an annual rate of 1.0 percent per capita. During
    this period, industry grew at an average rate of 4.5 percent a year, compared with an
    annual average of 3.0 percent for agriculture.
    1980-1990
    The rate of growth improved in the 1980s. From FY 1980 to FY 1989, the economy grew
    at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, or 3.3 percent on a per capita basis. Industry grew at an
    annual rate of 6.6 percent and agriculture at a rate of 3.6 percent. A high rate of
    investment was a major factor in improved economic growth. Investment went from
    about 19 percent of GDP in the early 1970s to nearly 25 percent in the early 1980s.
    Private savings had financed most of India's investment, but by the mid-1980s further
    growth in private savings was difficult because they were already at quite a high level. As
    a result, during the late 1980s India relied increasingly on borrowing from foreign
    sources. This trend led to a balance of payments crisis in 1990; in order to receive new
    loans, the government had no choice but to agree to further measures of economic
    liberalization. This commitment to economic reform was reaffirmed by the government
    that came to power in June 1991.
    Liberalisation and its effects (1991 Onwards) :
    While commending his first budget in 1991 Dr Manmohan Singh had quoted
    Victor Hugo and said, “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come. The
    emergence of India as a major economic power in the world happens to be one such
    idea”. Since then economy has progressed immensely with GDP progressing at the rate
    of 6-8% per annum. The GDP (nominal) has grown from US$ 267.52 billion in 1992 to
    US$ 1.85 trillion in 2012. India is third largest economy of the world and a preferred FDI
    destination. India‟s foreign trade reached US$ 785 billion in 2012. India‟s major
    industries include information technology, telecommunications, textiles, chemicals, food
    processing, steel, transportation equipment, engineering goods, cement, mining,
    petroleum, machinery, software and pharmaceuticals. Major agricultural products include
    rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes, cattle, sheep, goats, poultry
    and fish. In 2011–2012, India's top five trading partners are China, United Arab Emirates,
    United States, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland. The percentage share of various sectors in
    the economy in the year 2011-12 is given below. The high contribution of services and
    manufacturing sector indicates the huge progress made by Indian economy since its
    Independence when it was predominantly agrarian economy (59% in 1951).Sectors Percentage Share in GDP in
    1950-51 2011-12
    Primary Sector 59.0 16.1
    Secondary Sector 13.0 24.9
    Tertiary sector or Service Sector 28.0 59.0
    India is a leading country in services sector so much so that she is referred to as „the
    back office of the world‟. However, India has made significant progress in various
    spheres of science and technology over the years and can now take pride in having a
    strong network of S&T institutions, trained manpower and an innovative knowledge base.
    India has already become hub for manufacturing of small cars and engineering goods.
    The Government had devised the National Manufacturing Policy (NMP) in 2011 with an
    aim to enhance the share of manufacturing in India's GDP to 25 per cent and add at
    least 100 million jobs by 2025. India is poised to become the second largest economy in
    manufacturing by 2017, followed by Brazil as the third ranked country, according to
    consulting major Deloitte. The manufacturing exports from India could increase to about
    US$ 300 billion by 2015, according to a report titled 'Made in India-the Next Big
    Manufacturing Export Story', jointly prepared by industry body CII and McKinsey.
    McKinsey analysis finds that rising demand in India, together with the multinationals‟
    desire to diversify their production to include low-cost plants in countries other than
    China, could together help India‟s manufacturing sector to grow six fold by 2025, to $1
    trillion, while creating up to 90 million domestic jobs.
    India is one of the largest and fastest-growing markets for food and agricultural
    products in the world. India is the world's third largest producer of food. Agriculture
    accounts for about 16.1% of India‟s GDP. India has emerged as the largest milk
    producing country, with annual milk production of over 100 million tonnes. This is
    expected to grow to 135 million tonnes by 2015. The Indian retail market for fresh fruit
    and vegetables is estimated at US$35 billion. Organised retailing is US$73 million and
    growing at a rate of 30 percent. India has vast resources of livestock, estimated at 485
    million. In terms of population, India ranks first in buffaloes, second in cattle and goats,
    and third in sheep. According to a recent study by the Federation of Indian Chambers of
    Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Ernst & Young, the India food industry is set to
    grow by 42.5% from US$181 billion now to US$ 258 billion by 2015 and by 76% to US$
    318 billion by 2020.
    India: Global R&D Hub
    The Indian government has put in significant effort in last 50 years to develop the
    scientific and technical infrastructure of the country. With more than 250 universities,
    1,500 research institutions and 10,428 higher -education institutes, India churns out
    200,000 engineering graduates and another 300,000 technically trained graduates every
    year. Besides, another 2 million other graduates qualify out in India annually. The
    combination of state-of-the-art infrastructure and highly qualified manpower ensures that India is poised to be the next Global R&D hub. This is increasingly being observed in
    Industry as large MNCs including GE, Microsoft, Bell Labs etc have opened there R&D
    Centers in India – a first outside US for most of these companies. More than 100
    multinational companies (MNCs), including Delphi, Eli Lilly, Hewlett-Packard, Heinz,
    Honeywell and Daimler Chrysler, have set up (R&D) facilities in India in the past few
    years. For some, such as the US$12.6 billion Akzo Nobel's car-refinishes business, the
    center came even before the company began selling its products in India. This makes
    India second only to USA and ahead of other more established hubs, such as Japan,
    Israel and Western Europe, and China.
    INDIAN ECONOMY – FUTURE PROSPECTS:
    The Indian economy is one of the fastest growing economies in the world today.
    The rising income and savings levels, investment opportunities, huge domestic
    consumption and younger population will ensure growth for decades to come. The main
    engines of Indian economy are sectors such as Information Technology,
    Telecommunications, ITES, Pharmaceuticals, Banking, Insurance, Light Engineering
    Goods, Auto Components, Textiles & Apparels, Steel, Machine Tools and Gems &
    Jewellery are sectors which are likely to grow at rapid pace world over creating demand
    for Indian products and services. India is at present US$ 4.5 trillion economy on PPP
    basis and is likely to maintain its growth trajectory in times to come. The coming few
    decades are likely to witness tectonic shift in world economic structure of the world.
    India‟s share in world output is projected to jump from 5% as of today to 20.8% by 2040
    as per one estimate.
    World Economy: Future Economic Power Shifts (2008-2040)
    (% Share of World GDP in PPP)
    Source: World Bank for GDP in terms of purchasing power parity in 2008; Projections for 2014-
    2040 by Mr. Mathew Joseph, Senior Consultant, ICRIER
    2008 2014 2020 2030 2040
    Germany 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.3
    USA 20.4 19.2 17.6 15.3 13.9
    Japan 6.2 5.6 4.7 3.7 2.9
    China 11.3 16.3 22.2 30.9 37.4
    India 4.9 6.3 8.5 14.3 20.8


    http://cgijeddah.mkcl.org/WebFiles/History-of-Indian-Economy.pdf
     
  6. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    - Must See !!
     
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  7. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    Th details of Angus Maddison's work can be accessed here:

    MacPherson, W. J. "Reviewed Work(s): Class Structure and Economic Growth. India and Pakistan since the Moghuls by Angus Maddison." The Economic Journal, Vol. 82, No. 328. (Dec., 1972), pp. 1470-1472.

    List of regions by past GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
  8. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    The Economic History of the Last 2000 Years: Part III - The Atlantic

    Great graphics & relative charts depicted herein.

    The Economic History of the Last 2000 Years: Part III

    Early this week, I posted a little graph of the economic history of the world, after 1 AD, from a research letter written by Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JP Morgan. On Wednesday, I posted follow-up graphs to track GDP/capita -- a rough proxy for income, and even productivity -- through the last 2000 years. Here's the last installment.

    You can call the graph below an "economic history of the world since Jesus." I've graphed each major power or region's share of world GDP since the year 1 AD (the data is in a PDF here). There is no data between 1 and 1000 AD, so I've put a little space there. The data does not provide for a clean X-axis -- note the differences between years -- but it provides a good rough picture of the last 2000 years and a nice illustration of the breakaway wealth of the U.S.

    The first question I had when I first graphed the data is, How do India and China account for between 50% and 60% of the world economy for the first 1500 years AD? Until about 1800 when the Industrial Revolution sent productivity skyrocketing at an unprecedented pace, income growth was slow and and relatively even around the world. As a result, the regions with the biggest economies were basically just the regions with the biggest populations.

    So let's look at populations. This graph, from the same historical data set, shows the distribution of people across regions for the last 2000 years. As you'll see, it's a much more static picture than GDP. China, India, and south-east Asia are still among the densest places on earth, just as they were 2000 years ago. Western Europe is still highly livable. Africa's share of the world's population has rarely deviated from 7% - 13% band. Two millennia ago, Japan had 1.3% of the world's people. Today it has about 2%.

    The West started to outpace the rest of the world after 1000, but its rate of technological advancement was pretty pathetic compared to what we saw after the 19th century.

    Here's a stat to sum that up. According to A Farewell to Alms, income per person in Western Europe doubled between the 1310s and the 1450s and then fell by 25% in real terms by 1600. Why? Because of The Plague. By reducing the number of people competing for scarce food, the Black Death did more for average incomes than any existing technology of its time. "In the preindustrial world," Gregory Clark writes, "sporadic technological advance produced people, not wealth."* That is the Malthusian Trap in a nutshell. Look how similar GDP across regions was for the first 1700 years since BC ...
     
  9. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    India had accounted for as much as 33% of global GDP - more than three times that of the whole of Western Europe combined - with even a GDP per capita often exceeding that of Britain. During the eras of loot, war and colonisation that preceded the British Raj, the 'Indian way' remained largely intact and as a result, India was still the second largest economy in the world, briefly overtaken by her giant sister civilisation, China (which was also subsequently brought to her knees by Imperial Britain).

    By 1700, India was again the world's largest economy, accounting for 24.4% of global GDP, more than that of the whole of Europe combined, and almost ten times the size of Britain's economy, whose growth had already began benefiting from 'trade' with India, China and Africa. By the time of independence, a socially, economically and industrially devastated India's share of global GDP had plummeted to a mere 4.2%.

    Under British rule, India suffered more famines in mere decades than during the preceding 1,000 years.

    It is of no irony that virtually all former British colonies, from Kenya to India, and Egypt to Pakistan, have been cursed with almost identical Imperial footprints; the same set of existential problems, the same Victorian social character, and the same wholly disingenuous post-colonial narrative.

    ‎The Greatest Cover-Up in History ? How Imperial Britain's Racist India, Africa & China Narrative ‎Still Persists | Abhaey Singh
     
  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    Such reports surface from time to time - past glory of the Central Kingdom and so on. But I've always been skeptical.

    To start with a basic - historically most of intl borders were in constant changes and altered repeatedly, by conquest or treaty etc. without a modern sense of nation-state. Just take China for example - after the 1911 revolution that overthrew the monarchy Outer Mongolia was independent. And earlier during late Qing Dynasty many parts were ceded to Russian Empire after every defeat. And then Taiwan was lost to Japan after the fiasco of Chinese imperial navy.

    Then how could a historical GDP be figured out when the boundary had been rather unsettled, without a sound database in ancient times?
     
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  11. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    From my understanding, the study makes more sense from a comparative angle. The standard deviation in calculations would be more or less equal for most of the data in these studies. If China's borders were fluid & underwent regular flux, the same applies for EU nations & Indian borders, as well. So, when we compare between the economies of the world, "relatively", we arrive at the same conclusion.
     
  12. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    I am waiting for the day when India and China starts paying back the development aid we have been giving to you for the past decades. Every year every finn donates 200 EUROS to development aid. For that money, you can have a week holiday in the sun of Greece, Turkey or Spain. I have personally lost at least 20 holidays, when the money have been given to you guys. So do not forget to pay them back when you become the masters of the world.[SUP][/SUP] BTW here in the north is just starting polar night. The sun will rise next time in january.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo


    Ask Britain to return "thousands X trillions" pounds of wealth they looted from us for centuries...perhaps, your few hundred euros of change can be spared from that "loot fund".
     
  14. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    then @jouni has to wait for ever I bet no development fund fm Europe to China. even up to date China is still under yr arms embargo :eek:
     
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  15. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    There are no clear boundaries in past to define this is India/China.Leave a side Mourya,Magadha... India consolidated for 200 yrs under Mogul & 150 yrs under Brit empire with Pak&BD included.May be China also have same.

    So it is foolish to compare today's Ind/Chi with past Ind/Chi.Any way, we are entering knowledge economy big brains--->big market---> big money wow wow wow Ind/Chi Century started :balle: :dancemasti:
     
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  16. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    I was trying to find what help Finland actually nowadays gives to China, it is pretty hard to find. I wonder why, it should be out there in the open ?

    Have you heard about the Russian joke: newsreader reads the weather in Murmansk 2025: "The weather at the border of Finland and China is sunny".

    Looks like the common man have already adopted the future of your co-operation ;)
     
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  17. ersakthivel

    ersakthivel Senior Member Senior Member

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  18. ersakthivel

    ersakthivel Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    When are you going to pay back the 200 year british, french, portugal loot of indian sub continent. Compared to that the economic aid is pittance .

    So you guys from your grand grand father times owe us an enormous sum.

    Once india and china become nuclear super powers with tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and start asking for pay back of that loot what will you do?

    Before Europeans came here india was far bigger economy, Continuous suppression and loot of our natural resources with our nation getting turned into a market for European goods for two centuries resulted in indian economy becoming a pigmy.

    That aid is no free go away either. there are many political strigns attached to it. Like adherence to copy right laws and so many things.
     
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  19. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    Tell me why, when Germany and Japan were bombed to ashes tens of millions of their best people laid dead, their cities ruined, their believes crushed. How come they rose from the ashes in few years and have been one of the biggest economies for the past at least 50 years? How come India have not been able to achieve similar things? Even if India has not suffered in wars, no destroyed infrastructure either? Tell me... Brits left India already 65 years ago...
     
  20. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    I think this never ending hate against the British is counter productive. For one I think it prevents national introspection (on what's ailing the nation and what's to be done about it) as all ills are blamed on the British. Of course we should not forget about the colonialism but we should already move on. Take the best from our local history and culture and from the British and then apply them into current and future challenges. Whatever we do we must be pragmatic, not emotional.

    (Just my 10 cents)
     
  21. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: India & China were the biggest economies throughout recorded histo

    It took one year for Churchill to kill 6 Million Indians in 2nd world war while Hitler took 10 years to kill 6 million Jews...

    There was no Marshal plan for India... Do not compare Apple with Oranges...
     

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