India-China war unlikely, says expert Kanti Bajpai

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Galaxy, Dec 2, 2011.

  1. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    India-China war unlikely, says expert Kanti Bajpai

    New Delhi, December 1

    Listing possible reasons, Professor Kanti Bajpai, a scholar on international relations, has claimed that a war between India and China is unlikely unless one country gets highly provocative. Speaking at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) last evening, he buttressed his argument saying there are at least four reasons which will hold back the two neighbours on their respective side of the Himalayas.

    He was delivering the second YB Chavan memorial lecture titled ‘India and China - can the giants of Asia cooperate’. YB Chavan was the Defence Minister following the India-China conflict in 1962. Kanti Bajpai is a visiting professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University Singapore. He has a deep understanding of the Sino-Indian relations.

    Bajpai said though war is always a possibility, it seems unlikely between India and China. There are least four reasons that will hold back the either side. They are: Both sides are equipped with nuclear weapons, meaning thereby that they will have to exercise extreme caution; Both sides have air power that will make a conventional war of any duration and decisiveness very difficult; China has the advantage of the heights on the Tibetan plateau, but its ability to send large forces into India in this sector is limited by geographical constraints and China will not be able to hold back a counter attack by the IAF as its supply routes can be easily interdicted. Lastly, Tibetan instability will prevent China from opting for warfare against India.

    The two countries have worked consistently since 1988 to put in place a diplomatic, political, military, and economic system to maintain stability and lay the foundation for a border settlement. He stressed that the system has four components - border negotiations, high-level summits, confidence-building measures and bilateral trade - and referred to them as pillars. Since 1988, there have been more summits between the presidents, PMs and foreign ministers than in the previous 40 years.

    NN Vohra, Governor of J&K and a former Defence Secretary and Home Secretary, chaired the session and suggested that the leadership of India and China should put together an approach which is, among other things, harmonious with the India-China defence strategy and external affairs. This will strengthen the relationship between the two nations.

    Four deterrents:-
    • Both sides have nuclear weapons, meaning thereby that they will have to exercise extreme caution
    • Both have air power that will make a conventional war of any duration and decisiveness very difficult
    • China has the advantage of height on the Tibetan plateau, but its ability to send large forces into India in this sector is limited by geographical constraints.
    • Tibetan instability will prevent China from opting for warfare against India.

    The Tribune, Chandigarh, India - Main News
     
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  3. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    or it could be the cause for the war, if the chinese government thinks that india is using the tibetn exiles against us again.
     
  4. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Trust me if we arm and use tibetian people then you will most certainly know.
     
  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    War does not mean the use of nuclear weapons.

    Armed confrontation with conventional weapons in limited areas is also war.

    The manner in which the Tibetans are becoming proactive can trigger off confrontation.
     
  6. jat

    jat Regular Member

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    Isn't a limited war like Kargil the problem?
    China has nothing to loose to pull off a Kargil besides relations with India. On the other hand, its economy and military will be intact because they would use much. It could be used as a diversion to unite Chinese citizens when their is upheaval. This is Mao did, why not the current CPC?
     
  7. cw2005

    cw2005 Regular Member

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    India and China are working together in many area including political issues and business in Africa. They need each other. For instance, in Nigeria, Chinese companies build huge cement project(s) and the Indians run them afterward. That is how these two countries work togehter. War is very unlikely.
     
  8. Clark Prasad

    Clark Prasad New Member

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    So China will use Pakistan as a Trojan horse to attack India, and give intel. They may also tie down some forces in eastern border. 2012 the political leadership is changing, also Taiwan may come into China's fold with promise of autonomy and some HongKong like agreement. Post 2012 a war may be seen. The army is strong and they would want to use them....
     

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