India: Caught between china & the deep sea

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by Dark_Prince, Apr 4, 2010.

  1. Dark_Prince

    Dark_Prince Regular Member

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    INDIA: CAUGHT BETWEEN CHINA & THE DEEP SEA


    By B.Raman

    On April 1,2010, India and China embarked on a six-month programme to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. S.M.Krishna, the Indian Foreign Minister, is visiting China for four days from April 5 to join the celebrations.

    2. Forgotten---at least for the time being--- are the suspicions, distrust and harsh words of last year over the visits of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh to India’s Arunachal Pradesh State on the Chinese border in the North-East to campaign for local candidates in the elections and of His Holiness the Dalai Lama to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh at the invitation of the local people. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as its territory and calls it Southern Tibet. It wants India to hand over to China under the border negotiations under way without progress at least Tawang if not the whole of Arunachal Pradesh.

    3.The Chinese have a long memory. They have not forgotten that one of the old Dalai Lamas was born in Tawang and that the present His Holiness fled from Tibet into India in 1959 across the border in the Tawang area. They have made it clear that there will be no border agreement unless India transfers at least Tawang to China. That would mean the exodus of the Indian population from the territory handed over to China. No Indian Government, however popular, may be able to sell such a transfer favourable to the Chinese to the Indian Parliament and people.

    4.2009 was full of alarming reports about the Chinese further strengthening their military infrastructure in Tibet and Chinese military patrols repeatedly intruding into Indian territory. Faced with opposition criticism of its perceived inaction against the growing trans-border assertiveness of China, the Government of India pressed ahead with an already ongoing programme for strengthening its military infrastructure in the Indian territory. India is many years behind China in developing its infrastructure in the border areas.

    5.2009 also saw non-governmental Chinese analysts discussing in seemingly unofficial web sites and blogs the options available to China for teaching India a lesson should it become necessary. A repeat of the humiliating defeat of 1962 was one such option discussed. Taking advantage of the various separatist movements in India in an attempt to balkanize the country was another. An article on possible Indian balkanization by an unknown and insignificant Chinese analyst added to the already strong Indian suspicions of China.

    6.China was active and assertive not only in the border areas. It has been equally so right around India’s periphery. Taking advantage of the suspicions and distrust of India in the other States of the South Asian region, China, which is not a South Asian power, has acquired a growing South Asian presence.

    7.It continues to help Pakistan in further strengthening its nuclear and missile capabilities which are directed against India. After having completed the construction of the Gwadar commercial port on the Baloch coast, it has promised to develop it further into a modern naval base which would be available for use to the Chinese Navy too.

    8.It won the gratitude of Sri Lanka by supplying it arms and ammunition to crush the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and is embarked on the expansion of the Hambantota commercial port, which might one day be developed into a naval base. A grateful Sri Lanka has given a block for gas exploration to a Chinese company without inviting bids. India was given a block for exploration without bids and China was treated on par with India.

    9.There are as many Chinese tourists visiting the Maldives as Indian and a Chinese bank has been allowed to operate in the Maldives to meet the foreign exchange needs of the Chinese tourists.

    10.In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, despite her strong friendship for India, has continued with the look East policy of her predecessor Begum Khalida Zia and strengthened the links with China. During her visit to China in March, an agreement was signed with a Chinese company for oil/gas exploration in Bangladesh. She also sought Chinese help for the upgradation of Chittagong into a modern deep sea port. Her Government has sought to calm Indian concerns by reassuring India that India will also be allowed to use the Chittagong port modernized with Chinese help.

    11.At least, Sri Lanka and Myanmar have sought to treat India on par with China by granting it equal rights of oil/gas exploration, but Bangladesh has not given any such contracts to India due to strong local opposition to India playing any role in the development of its energy resources.

    12.Sheikh Hasina also discussed with the Chinese plans for linking Yunnan with Bangladesh through Myanmar by a modern road. If the Chinese company finds oil or gas in Bangladesh it is only a question of time before the Chinese production facilities in Bangladesh are connected with those in the Arakan area of Myanmar so that oil and gas from Bangladesh can flow direct to Yunnan through the pipeline connecting Arakan with Yunnan now being constructed.

    13.In Nepal, China is looking for a road link to connect Nepalese roads with those in Tibet and for an extension of the railway line from Lhasa to Nepal.

    14.Thus, the Chinese have been developing their infrastructure of potential military significance around India’s periphery. The Chinese think and plan long-term. Indian response is ad hoc. Just as New Delhi woke up late to the likely threats by land from the North, one realizes belatedly that the threats are from the South, East and West as well.

    15.Whatever limited influence India has in South Asia is in danger of being eroded by the Chinese inroads. India is yet to work out a comprehensive response to it. All the sweet words of the 60th anniversary cannot hide this harsh reality.

    http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers38/paper3746.html
     
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  3. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Over reaction is headlong. S. Asian neighbors around India's periphery also need to improve infrastructures for economic development. China's engagement in those projects is hardly of any military threats (for example, modernization of Chittagong deapsea Port). Poverty is often the cause of social unrest in those countries.

    If there's any competition in S.Asia that's for biz opportunities or oil/gas instead of 'military' or hegemony over there. That competition or even clash of interest is inevitable but controllable. The more eco. ties China or India develop with neighbors the less likely outbreak of wars is with interwoven interests. Just like China with her northern neighbors S.Korea, Japan, or Russia , being competing with one another, but meantime inter-dependent. The same can be true of India and China in S.Asia.
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The control over oil comes only with military infrastructure.
     
  5. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Control? If Bengla or Myanmar grants China or India exploration of an oil field or sells oil/gas (by pipeline or tanker) to either country, does China or Ind have a 'control' over B or M's resources consequently? That's called business. At the same time B or M can sell to any others as they wish, just like what Russia is doing with any customers. Besides all 'transactions' (military or non military) are within the range of Indian missiles. Really no big deal.
     
  6. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    China now is competiting India in a peaceful way---that is trade,investment and construction.

    India now is at disadvantage obviously, because India has no eough fund and tech to competite CHina by trade and investment.
     
  7. Dark_Prince

    Dark_Prince Regular Member

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    How do support your claim? How do you know India does not have funds for investments? When in Afghanistan, we are planning to invest 1.3-1.5 Bn USD more than China has planned. Read the article carefully, India is at par with China in terms of Investing in neighborhood. However, the point of contention is chinese military expansionism, which needs to be countered!

    P.S: Read before commenting

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2010
  8. Phenom

    Phenom Regular Member

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    In this age, political control comes from economic control, threatening to pull out of a billion dollar investment would be a better threat than sending tanks to the border. I believe China understands that, that's why they are investing heavily in Bangladesh and Nepal, if China had more investment in these countries then they are likely to be pro-chinese during any eventuality. India needs to counter it through its own economic measures, I believe its already being done in Bangladesh.

    Anway, these are the usual games that big countries play and smaller countries benefit from them. :)
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    That's the only way smaller countries can get money. Play one big country against another. On the other hand they become battle ground too. Astan is one such place during the cold war. The ill effects of those days is still visible and wreaking havoc today.
     
  10. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Well said. There is every possibility of the smaller nation's overplaying these games and ending up becoming a battleground of the bigger powers. The best case for them would be to be as neutral as possible and support their bigger neighbours as much as possible.
     
  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    There are many smaller countries where the game has gone horribly wrong a good example is Pakistan, the other problem is the smaller country has no say over when the game ends or the rules of the game.
     
  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    China will never reach a point USA has reached in controlling world oil supplies,that can only come if USA is no longer in the top spot ,and that is not going to happen.
     
  13. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No matter USA is in the top spot, China still needs all kinds of resources. Building up these roads and bridges, China can access the resource and sell its products.
    If india doesn't like it, too bad for it. The only way you can beat china is providing a better offer: show me the money. So, other than whining about chinese involvement in this area, why can't indians spend some time on how to get the fund?
     
  14. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    This has nothing to do with India if Chinese have ambitions ofl be controlling world energy supplies, it is highly doubtful USA, Russia or other nations will give up their slots.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  15. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    China can hurt us from many pain plexuses from up north and via proxies. The same china can vows India China friendship, trade and cooperation in Indian ocean to secure oil routs and investment in neighboring countries with more sensitivity. The problem is with India not able to draw lines and define its threshold where it will directly confront with china. What i can see is severe confusion by part of India not able to find balance and sparing sneaky china every time.
     

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