India Buys Rafale. More to Come?

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by ghost, Apr 13, 2015.

  1. ghost

    ghost Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2013
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    1,317
    Location:
    in the dark
    1 All the Mig 21 will be replaced by either lca tejas or some other single engine plane(because of limited capability of lca range/load)

    2 MMRCA is dead, 36 will be bought GTG then there will be further talk to make in India 90 rafales or directly purchase from France under GTG .If this fails then it will be replaced by lca mk2(if it is able to meet foc in time,or else some other plane will be bought for mmrca.)

    3 36 rafale bought under GTG deal will be much cheaper and at better terms than original rfp.

    @manohar parikar
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
    Singh and Lions Of Punjab like this.
  2.  
  3. Lions Of Punjab

    Lions Of Punjab Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2013
    Messages:
    639
    Likes Received:
    887
    Location:
    Ahmedabad, India, India
    Re: Dassault Rafale wins MMRCA!

    THE RAFALE CONUNDRUM: LESSONS TO BE LEARNT


    by Admiral Arun Prakash

    Image result for Admiral Prakash
    The Indian decision to purchase 36 Rafale multi-role jet fighters from France in 'fly-away' condition will no doubt redress a critical inventory gap for the Indian Air Force (IAF) but it may turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory for French aerospace giant Dassault Aviation rather than the 'coup' it is being made out to be. This is a complex issue, with serious implications for India's security and cannot be viewed in simplistic win-lose terms.

    Aircraft attrition, obsolescence and declining numbers constitute a triple spectre that haunts every air chief, making him ask for more. The IAF's problem has been aggravated by the fact that a significant proportion of its combat strength consisted of the Soviet-era MiG-21s ,of which about 850 were licence-produced by HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited). Its planned indigenous replacement, the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft, promised by the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization) by the early 1990s, has come 25 years late and is too little, too late.

    Dwindling numbers, coupled with the operational challenge posed by rapidly modernising air forces of neighbouring China and Pakistan, led the IAF to decide that a quick-fix for its problems was to induct additional numbers of the French Mirage-2000. This aircraft had an excellent record in IAF service and Vayu Bhavan, the air headquarters, felt that it could become the future medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) not only bridging the gap between the Su-30 and the Tejas but also compensating for the eventual de-induction of the MiG-21s.

    However, the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) was aware that Dassault was on the verge of closing down the Mirage-2000 production-line and switching to the more advanced Mirage-2000-5 version, a substantially different machine. Refusing to treat the IAF proposal as a repeat order, they insisted that a fresh staff requirement be drawn up and followed with a "request for proposals" (RFP).

    Once responses to the RFP were examined, the IAF wasted no time in initiating a rigorous evaluation process in which each of the six competing aircraft were assessed over the full range of maintenance and operational criteria laid down in the staff requirement.

    However, the IAF had rendered an already complex process even more problematic by casting its net too wide. The six aircraft, short-listed for evaluation, fell into conspicuously different categories of vintage, weight, sophistication and cost, making it truly a contentious contest between apples and oranges.

    More than a decade after initiation of the MMRCA proposal, the MoD declared in January 2012 that the Rafale had been selected for induction into the IAF. A letter of intent for acquisition of 126 aircraft was issued to Dassault Aviation - with 18 to be built in France and the rest to be assembled and manufactured by in India by HAL. Contract negotiations commenced soon after, with the programme costs being estimated at between $12-15 billion.

    Although there has been no official pronouncement, in the 27 months since the conclusion of the MMRCA competition, negotiations appeared to be deadlocked with no contract in sight. Media speculation has focused on Dassault's lack of confidence in the ability of HAL to attain requisite aviation manufacturing standards. The direct implications are that Dassault will not stand guarantee for HAL-produced Rafales and there will be significant cost escalations with figures of $22-30 billion being mentioned.

    Given HAL's dismal track record of poor quality control in every product it has delivered to the three Services, Dassault's reservations are understandable. However, this issue should have been addressed by the French company before it submitted its bid and not at the stage of contract negotiations. This appears to be almost a replay of the serious problems faced by the MoD in the Scorpene submarine project. It that latter case, M/S Thales of France invoked some fine print in the contract after it had been signed in good faith, leading to huge time delays and cost overruns. Obviously, there is need for caution when dealing with French firms.

    The hiatus in conclusion of the Rafale contract has led to conjecture in the media, perhaps fuelled by losers in the MMRCA competition. Apart from picking holes in the Rafale, some commentators have castigated the IAF for a flawed force-planning process, focusing on three issues: the high cost of the Rafale, especially when compared to the 'formidable' Sukhoi-30 MK, which awaits further upgradation, with dire prediction that the hidden costs of the Rafale project could bankrupt future defence budgets; the 'operational niche' into which the IAF intends to place the Rafale seems odd, given that it has the Sukhoi-30 and Tejas at the 'heavy' and 'light' ends of the combat spectrum with the Indo-Russian 5th generation aircraft (PAK-FA) on the horizon; and aggravation of the IAF's logistical nightmare when an 8th type is added to its existing inventory of seven combat aircraft of Russian, British, French, and Indian origin.

    Some of the observations merit the IAF's consideration. However, all is not monochromatic and four points deserve objective review. The egregious failure of the DRDO and India's defence industrial complex to meet the operational needs of the IAF is matched only by the detachment shown by the latter towards the indigenous aeronautics industry.

    Had the IAF assumed positive "ownership" of aircraft projects, starting with the HT-2 trainer and the HF-24 Marut fighter, it may not have had to seek a basic trainer, an advanced trainer and a MMRCA aircraft from abroad today. Even at this late stage a Directorate of Aircraft Design in Air HQ would help create a symbiotic linkage between the Air Staff and India's aerospace industry.

    The persistent clamour for aircraft numbers or squadrons sounds convincing when cited in the context of a 'two-front' war. However, these numbers were stipulated in an era when two squadrons of MiG-21s could have been bought for the price of a single Rafale today. Conversely, the versatile capabilities and the invulnerability of a modern multi-role combat aircraft make it the equivalent of a dozen or more of its predecessors. The emphasis now must shift from dumb numbers to smart capability.

    There is food for thought in the fact that against the IAF's strength of 750-800 combat aircraft, the Royal Air Force and the French Air Forc, undertake world-wide commitments with just 225 aircraft of two types each -- the FAF with the Rafale and Mirage-2000 and the RAF with Tornadoes and Typhoons.

    The above comparison is not really fair to the IAF since most of its inventory is of foreign origin. There is no guarantee, whatsoever, of how many aircraft will be available for combat on any day, given that the non-availability of even a small imported component can instantly ground an aircraft fleet. Here it must be noted that the Russian system has, despite repeated promises of reform, been the worst culprit for the past 25 years and its abysmal product-support has debilitated all three Services.

    The fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) or PAK-FA, being touted as an Indo-Russian joint project, is yet another example of rank bad faith on Russia's part. Based on a Russian pledge that they would share the design, engineering, testing and intellectual property in a 50-50 proportion, India was asked to contribute US $300 million, up-front, and 35 percent of the $15 billion project cost eventually. While details are under wraps, currently three prototype PAK-FAs are already flying in Russia with no Indian participation or contribution. This project promises to become a clone of the BrahMos; a Russian product that carries an ersatz Indo-Russian trademark.

    Eyebrows may be raised as to why a major announcement regarding outright purchase of 36 French-built Rafales should have been made in Paris rather than New Delhi. It is understood that the critical capability gap of the IAF compelled this expedient decision and to that extent it is to be cautiously welcomed.

    However, delivering 36 Rafales to the IAF in two years is only possible if some aircraft are withdrawn from French service and refurbished, as was done in the case of British supplied Jaguars in 1978-79. This development reflects French politico-commercial compulsions and perhaps Modi's persuasive skills.

    If this is just a modification of the original MMRCA deal to expedite deliveries, it will further complicate the already complex negotiations and render a severe blow to the 'Make in India' campaign as well as the MoD's 'Defence Offsets' initiative. Presumably the whole contract will need to be re-drafted and re-negotiated.

    However, if it is a change of heart on India's part, it may constitute a good all-round compromise. While partially satisfying French commercial interests, it permits India an honourable exit from the Rafale commitment; allowing it to review other options. The IAF, too, can look forward to an early boost for its combat capability, without being saddled with a crippling financial liability.

    However, India will keep encountering such conundrums unless the politician acquires comprehension of complex security issues and installs a professionally competent organization for acquisition of military hardware in MoD.

    The Rafale conundrum: Lessons to be learnt (Comment: Special to IANS) (Superseding earlier version, with important corrections in Para 4) | Business Standard News
     
    jackprince likes this.
  4. Lions Of Punjab

    Lions Of Punjab Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2013
    Messages:
    639
    Likes Received:
    887
    Location:
    Ahmedabad, India, India
    Re: Dassault Rafale wins MMRCA!

    why to go for 90 rafales ? Lca Mk 2 will be a sane choice .
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
  5. ghost

    ghost Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2013
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    1,317
    Location:
    in the dark
    Re: Dassault Rafale wins MMRCA!

    Sir,

    Probably lca mk2 will be a sane choice ,but this is what our defence minister said and I am sure he has his own valid reasons for it.Moreover LCA MK2 is still on papers .
     
  6. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    20,305
    Likes Received:
    8,270
    Location:
    011
    Will we buy more Rafales, if so under MMRCA old deal or under a new negotiation or flyaway independent of MMRCA which will either be scrapped or refloated ?

    Confusion...
     
  7. ghost

    ghost Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2013
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    1,317
    Location:
    in the dark
    Sir,

    All the discussion for additional flyaway Rafales or make in India of more Rafales will be GTG rather than being under MMRCA tender.Hope this clear your doubts.

    नई दिल्ली। फ्रांस के लड़ाकू विमान राफेल की आलोचना कर रहे लोगों को आईबीएन7 पर देश के रक्षा मंत्री मनोहर पर्रिकर ने करारा जवाब दिया है। पर्रिकर ने आईबीएन7 से एक्सक्लूसिव बातचीत में साफ कहा कि ये विमान वायुसेना की जरूरत है। राफेल बेहतरीन क्षमता वाला विमान है और उसपर सवाल उठाना पूरी तरह से बेमानी है।

    पर्रिकर ने राफेल को लेकर की जा रही आलोचनाओं का जवाब भी दिया और साफ कहा कि ये कहना गलत होगा कि राफेल विमान वायुसेना में इस वक्त मिग-21 विमानों का विकल्प है। पर्रिकर ने राफेल विमानों का विरोध कर रहे बीजेपी नेता सुब्रह्मण्यम स्वामी को समझाने की बात भी कही।

    उन्होंने साफ कहा कि वो स्वामी से मिलेंगे और उन्हें समझाएंगे। गौरतलब है कि स्वामी ने इस सौदे के खिलाफ अदालत में जाने की धमकी दी थी। रक्षा मंत्री ने ये भी बताया कि मिग-21 की जगह देश में ही बन रहे हल्के विमान तेजस तैनात होंगे।

    सुमित अवस्थी: 36 राफेल विमानों पर तो बात हो गई है लेकिन बाकी 90 विमानों के मुद्दे पर क्या बात हो रही है?

    मनोहर पर्रिकर: मेक इन इंडिया पर दोनों सरकारों के साथ बात होने के बाद ही होगी। राफेल काफी महंगा विमान है। 126 विमानों के लिए 90 हजार करोड का सौदा होगा। सरकार से सरकार स्तर पर बात के बाद मेक इन इंडिया पर बात होगी। राफेल से मिग-21 रिप्लेस नहीं होगा, बाकी 90 विमानों पर हम चर्चा करेगें। तेजस से मिग-21 रिप्लेस होगा। 36 प्लेन खरीदने का निर्णय इन प्रिसिंपल हुआ है। दोनों देशों की टीमें बैठकर निर्णय लेगी कि कितने राफेल बनाने हैं। मिग 21 की जगह हल्का विमान तेजस लेगा।

    सुमित अवस्थी: क्या ये सच है कि पिछले 10 सालों में दुनिया भर के रक्षा मंत्रालयों के मुकाबले हम पीछे छूट गए?

    मनोहर पर्रिकर: मुझे किसी पर कीचढ़ फेंकने की आदत नहीं है, आरएफपी मॉडल से डील करना ही गलत है। पिछले दस सालों में किसी का किसी पर भरोसा नहीं रहा। एक रैंक, एक पेंशन का मुद्दा समाधान की ओर है। लेकिन कोर्ट के अंतरिम आदेश के कारण मुझे फैसला देखना होगा। अधिकतम 1 साल में हम एक रैंक, एक पेंशन को लागू कर सकेगें।

    सुमित अवस्थी: राफेल सौदे को लेकर सुबह्यण्यम स्वामी कोर्ट जाने की बात कर रहे हैं?

    मनोहर पर्रिकर: मैं सुबह्यण्यम स्वामी का सम्मान करता हूं। लेकिन मैं उन्हें एक दिन समझाने के लिए बुलाउंगा। उनका निर्णय इंस्टेट न्यूज पर आधारित हो सकता है।

    सुमित अवस्थी: दिग्विजय सिंह के आरोपो पर क्या कहेंगे?

    मनोहर पर्रिकर: हमारी डील क्लियर स्टेटमेंट पर है। हम आरएफपी से कम प्राइस पर बात करेगें। दोनों सरकारों के बीच सौदा क्या पहली बार हो रहा है।

    http://khabar.ibnlive.in.com/news/139753/1
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2015
  8. Kunal Biswas

    Kunal Biswas Member of the Year 2011 Moderator

    Joined:
    May 26, 2010
    Messages:
    27,563
    Likes Received:
    28,311
    Location:
    BHARAT, INDIA, HINDUSTHAN
    Is this Mr manohar parikar word`s or yours ?, Provide link or source for this ..

     
  9. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    1,296
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    India
    Kunal sir राफेल वायुसेना की जरूरत, सवाल बेमानीः पर्रिकर - IBN Khabar as showed in the above comment clearly states in the words of Manohar parrikar that

    मिग 21 की जगह हल्का विमान तेजस लेगा।
    Mig 21 will be replaced by lca tejas
     
    Kunal Biswas likes this.
  10. Kunal Biswas

    Kunal Biswas Member of the Year 2011 Moderator

    Joined:
    May 26, 2010
    Messages:
    27,563
    Likes Received:
    28,311
    Location:
    BHARAT, INDIA, HINDUSTHAN
    I specifically meant about the bold section of the particular sentence ..

     
  11. ghost

    ghost Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2013
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    1,317
    Location:
    in the dark
    Mr manohar parikar.Source: interview on DD and IBN ,I have watched it on TV.He said LCA is very capable aircraft,he also said that all mig 21 would be replaced by tejas but then he also added that they might also go for a single engine fighter plane.(confusing) but as it is he said.

    All the points mentioned in my first post are direct words of DM ,I have not added anything in it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2015
  12. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    9,252
    Likes Received:
    3,347
    Location:
    Brussels
    Would love to hear more of Subramanyam Swamy on this :rofl:

    I don't know what took Govt so long, I fell for Rafale at first sight back in 2013 paris air show.

    But wouldn't the locally produced volume be cheaper? No Make-in-india ?
     
  13. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    1,296
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    India
    Thats not Manohar sir's word .
    I think I read same phrase in IDRW articles cud not it track now.
     
    Kunal Biswas likes this.
  14. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    1,296
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    India
    Looks can be deceptive.
    Rafale is not fit to be used in Indian scenario.

    What took it so long... rafale not sticking to the original commitments ,then some greedy ppl at our end wants to go ahead with this deal and brought us into a fix where we cud not abandon it.

    No it will not be cheaper when produced locally when u add the TOT cost , Training labour cost, setup/Infrastucture cost etc etc.
     
  15. ashdoc

    ashdoc Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,766
    Likes Received:
    965
    So now india will just buy rafales outright instead of trying licence manufacture them in india . this is big failure for HAL . it is the inability of HAL to absorb such high technology that led to this .
     
  16. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    9,252
    Likes Received:
    3,347
    Location:
    Brussels
    Depends on how many units you operate. Maintenance cost will burn holes into budgets. Look at Su-30 to MKI experience. Its always advisable to incur fixed cost when scaling up.
     
  17. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    1,296
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    India
    Fixed cost is dependent on fixed number
    Good and reasonable inventory of spares.

    And i thought you were referring to Manufacturing and not the overall cost.

    Even then 50-60 aircrafts is a good number to have an economical maintenance.

    Production is all together a different prospect.
     
  18. Kunal Biswas

    Kunal Biswas Member of the Year 2011 Moderator

    Joined:
    May 26, 2010
    Messages:
    27,563
    Likes Received:
    28,311
    Location:
    BHARAT, INDIA, HINDUSTHAN
    That`s make sense, Tejas combat range is upto 500kms compare to MIG-21`s 290-300kms, Cruising range is more than 1000kms without fuel tanks ..


     
    ersakthivel likes this.
  19. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    9,252
    Likes Received:
    3,347
    Location:
    Brussels
    You have to consider overall cost & TCO in case of dozens of multi-role fighters, unless they are for exhibition purpose.
     
  20. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    1,296
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    India
    I had responded considering that only.
    I thot U were focus only on Manufacturing....

    In this case 50-60 aircrafts is a good number to have an economical maintenance as I said above and due to GTG and no TOT the cost is gonna be quite low.
     
  21. Pulkit

    Pulkit Satyameva Jayate "Truth Alone Triumphs" Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    1,296
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    India
    When will be second Tejas Handed over to IAF?
     

Share This Page