India added 20% of Pakistan GDP in 2 days to her economy.

[HariPrasad-1]

Ok, let's try it again, what the policy BJP government has set right 2 and half years ago?

It includes minimum import price on steel import, thrust on Make in India, boosting of coal production, auction of various licenses in transparent way and downing fiscal deficit etc.

Now do not quote me. I am not interested in discuss anything with you.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Ok, let's try it again, what the policy BJP government has set right 2 and half years ago?

Pulling MVA growth up.

Yes, I guess your brain doesn't get anything better to contribute than this, right?

Possibly you must start reading from first page that what I can and what I have contributed instead of giving yourself the certificate of low standard by using my taunts to attack me?

You didn't even respond to any of those puts but immediately jumped on taunt. And still you're wrong.
Why??:biggrin2:

Yes, I guess your brain doesn't get anything better to contribute than this, right?

Ya I'm again saying, you are such an intelligent breed who puts PPP with quality (which must actually be put with cost).

India's PPP-Nominal Gap is higher than African countries not because quality but because Indian Industry produces the things, not sits duck.

 

[no smoking]

Pulling MVA growth up.

Well, that could be a minor factor. As a developing country with India size, in current stage, 2.7% on industrial production growth is really a pity number.

And if you look at the history in the past 2 years, you can't call it achievement, the growth has been rising, shrinking, rising, shrinking, again and again.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/industrial-production

Possibly you must start reading from first page that what I can and what I have contributed instead of giving yourself the certificate of low standard by using my taunts to attack me?

So it is guilty not replying to your every single post?

You didn't even respond to any of those puts but immediately jumped on taunt. And still you're wrong.
Why??:biggrin2:

Why should I? I am a man having family to feed. I get limited time to read and reply in my break time. And I am making myself clear with my argument and my logic in my discussion with another member.
Since when, ignorance of your post becomes an excuse for personal attack?

Ya I'm again saying, you are such an intelligent breed who puts PPP with quality (which must actually be put with cost).

Yes, I guess that is all you can say.

India's PPP-Nominal Gap is higher than African countries not because quality but because Indian Industry produces the things, not sits duck.

No one argue that India is not producing the things.
The argument here is whether the gap represents how much India economy is undervalued.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Rupee strengthen 11 paisa against USD today after some corrections in last couple of days.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Well, that could be a minor factor. As a developing country with India size, in current stage, 2.7% on industrial production growth is really a pity number.

And if you look at the history in the past 2 years, you can't call it achievement, the growth has been rising, shrinking, rising, shrinking, again and again.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/industrial-production

Oh dear,

If you'll run your little eyes in deep,
MVA growth is close to 8%, it's not total industrial growth rate.

Indian Industrial growth is driven by many factors like mining too which sometimes grow in negative.

MVA growth is respectably high, even higher than China's which pulls production ahead and so exports.
Exports up & Surplus Up/Deficit down → Currency Up
Remember, manufacturing doesn't represent industry alone.
Regarding industry (entire) being slow, we will make it pick up after GST.
But again, Indian Manufacturing growth rate is enough high to explain what has happened.
It's possibly India's only industry which affects imports/exports significantly.

So it is guilty not replying to your every single post?

No, saving face and put it inside the ground like Ostriches just by quoting one of it's section is utter desperate and idiotic attitude!

Why should I? I am a man having family to feed. I get limited time to read and reply in my break time. And I am making myself clear with my argument and my logic in my discussion with another member.

Why are you wasting time with us?
Most of us DFI members are either unmarried bachelors, conned lovers or Nationlist Monks.

Since when, ignorance of your post

Read your previous post, you will know what's called ignorance.

becomes an excuse for personal attack?

Which personal attack?

Yes, I guess that is all you can say.

Yes off course, I'm not like you shakes mind milkshake everyday and come up with fact less & logic less declarations.

No one argue that India is not producing the things.

The argument here is whether the gap represents how much India economy is undervalued.

Don't dodge your own statement now.:biggrin2:

You were comparing gap with quality of production.:biggrin2:

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Rupee up 17 paise against USD and high of last couple of years. It is at 65.23 right now.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

INR is now 28 paise up and at 65.12 now. This is a big big rise in last few days.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

It is 65.09 now. A great rely.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

65.07 now. ..............................

 

[Indx TechStyle]

65.07 now. ..............................

₹65.05 this moment.
Let's not post results before evey evening when market closes.

 

[no smoking]

Oh dear,

If you'll run your little eyes in deep,
MVA growth is close to 8%, it's not total industrial growth rate.

Indian Industrial growth is driven by many factors like mining too which sometimes grow in negative.

MVA growth is respectably high, even higher than China's which pulls production ahead and so exports.
Exports up & Surplus Up/Deficit down → Currency Up
Remember, manufacturing doesn't represent industry alone.
Regarding industry (entire) being slow, we will make it pick up after GST.
But again, Indian Manufacturing growth rate is enough high to explain what has happened.
It's possibly India's only industry which affects imports/exports significantly.

Ok, can you please provide your source of manufacturing growth which was close to 8%?

No, saving face and put it inside the ground like Ostriches just by quoting one of it's section is utter desperate and idiotic attitude!

I can't help laughing every time I read this kind of childish comment.

Why are you wasting time with us? Most of us DFI members are either unmarried bachelors, conned lovers or Nationlist Monks.

Learning new ideas from people with different background and improving my own understanding about our world;
Having fun by looking at these childish comments and childish predictions.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

65.03 yesterday. .........................

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Ok, can you please provide your source of manufacturing growth which was close to 8%?

Page-116 or 117 of Indian Economy general news sticky thread?
Cuz, I'm not going to spoon feed you.
Feel free to be there.

I can't help laughing every time I read this kind of childish comment.

If it's all about childish comments, you must not be insulting yourself that much! :biggrin2:
Hint: Comparing PPP value with "quality" and then overall industrial growth rate as total manufacturing!
Such an intellegent breed isn't supposed to call others childish.:bounce::bounce:

Learning new ideas from people with different background and improving my own understanding about our world;

Understanding? You noob, you're declaring things on basis of your brainfarts and then, you'll declare others' childish.

Having fun by looking at these childish comments and childish predictions.

Pot calling cattle black or is this what you could come up with at best?

I'm very well aware of your level of knowledge and habit of hiding face after making those silly comments, dodging & not quoting that part and declaring others' childish.

They kick you inside "that place" every time but you, come up again & again.

 

[no smoking]

Page-116 or 117 of Indian Economy general news sticky thread?
Cuz, I'm not going to spoon feed you.
Feel free to be there.

If it's all about childish comments, you must not be insulting yourself that much! :biggrin2:
Hint: Comparing PPP value with "quality" and then overall industrial growth rate as total manufacturing!
Such an intellegent breed isn't supposed to call others childish.:bounce::bounce:

Aren't you childish? I made a claim of my opinion with full explanation and example, right or wrong, it is the idea generated from my brain work. And you, so far, I haven't seen any detailed discussion pointing out where I was wrong.

Understanding? You noob, you're declaring things on basis of your brainfarts and then, you'll declare others' childish.

Pot calling cattle black or is this what you could come up with at best?

I'm very well aware of your level of knowledge and habit of hiding face after making those silly comments, dodging & not quoting that part and declaring others' childish.

They kick you inside "that place" every time but you, come up again & again.

Isn't this the kind of typical childish mind?
This is a place for discussion which everyone is coming to make his or her contribution. It is not about who win, who lose. It is all about "sharing the idea".

Having fun, kiddo.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

INR is has broken the level of 65 and currently traded at 64.91. 2.5% rise in this month.

 

[Kshatriya87]

While our idiotic print and electronic media is busy in election discussion how sicularism is in danger in Modi's victory, a highly significant economic event went almost unnoticed. In last couple of days, Rupee has appreciated by 2% against USD. While people are foolishly arguing that India shall become a 5 TR USD economy in coming 10 years, I have always maintained on various forum that you guys are taking into account only Growth rate and Ignore the currency appreciation. India Rupee is valued almost 4 time lower that its purchase power and it offers a great chance of currency appreciation. In last 2 days INR has jumped from RS 66.80 a USD to 65.43 a USD which is a jump of 2% in value against USD. We need to understand what this means for us and its consequences.

Understanding the effect on GDP.

2% appreciation in India Rupee against USD means we have added, 2% in Indian GDP in nominal term in USD. This amounts to 2.5 Tr USDx2% is 50 bn USD which is 20% of Pakistan economy. When we struggle a lot to increase growth rate by 0.5% and people speculates whether growth rate shall be 7.1% or 7.5% so that GDP may increase in volume by same percentage and we may add to GDP in our existing level of about 2.5 TR USD. This is a straight hike of 2% in GDP nominal. 2.4 TR usd economy has just grown to 2.45 TR USD economy adding 50 Bn USD in just 2 days. This means we have further widen the Gap between UK economy and Indian economy by 2% more to whom Indian economy just overtook.

External Debt:

India's external debt is about 485 bn USD in March 2016 as per RBI. This simply mean that we have reduced our Debt by 2% in rupee term. This is saving of 10 bn USD while payment in Rupee which mean that we will have to Pay Ts 65000 crore less while discharging our Debt. Appreciation of 1% in Rupee value against USD saves our Rs 30000 crore which we may use for our development.

Weapon and oil import:

Our Oil import was 64 bn USD in 2015-16. Oil prices are rising so as the consumption. Even if I assume it to be 70 bn USD in coming year, this is a reduction of RS 10000 crore in oil Import bill and we may expect that impact of rise in crude oil price will be absorbed by appreciation in Rupee value and end user will not have to pay a price increase of Rs 1.50 per USD.

For our weapon import, we have a plan to purchase 230 bn USD weapon in coming decade. This 2% appreciation will result in a saving of 4.6 BN USD which is about RS 30000 crore.

Trade deficit:

Our import is higher than the export. So Trade deficit shall narrow. We have monthly average of trade deficit between 7 to 10 BN USD. If I take it as about 100 bn USD it is a decrease in Trade deficit by 2 BN USD which is 13000 crore Rupees.

Impact on Export:

Obviously export has always a negative impact on Appreciation of any currency but India export is largely in IT and engineering sector etc which can easily absorb this rise. Some exports such as petroleum products which are linked with oil import and they can easily afford to ease the price as the input are also getting cheaper because of currency appreciation.

Raising of cost effective fund:

Recently reliance took a loan of around 700 to 800 mn USD from International market at a rate of some 2.5% interest. The greatest risk of raising fund from international market is that you will end up loosing a great amount if your currency falls. We show this happening in the case South Korea and collapsing of their economy. If Rupee starts appreciating, hedging of rupee shall be very cost effective and you can buy fund from International market at a very cheap rate which can be as low as 2% to 4%. Your servicing of debt shall be very very cheap and you can overcome the biggest factor of production which is capital in case of India.

Conclusion:

Appreciation is INR VS USD and other currency is a great development in India economy. After the appreciation of Rupee against USD in Vajpayee era, the economy was completely let down by foolish policies of congress and Chidambaram in particular. As Modi rightly said that it is Harvard VS Hard work. BJP government has set policies right. Rupees is by and large stable in 2 and half year of BJP government. Now Rupee has started appreciating. This will be a great achievement and a great boost to Indian economy and Rupee will head toward its correct value which should be around RS 20 a USD.


-HariPrasad.

I was following the rupee rate closely since elections. As I expected, rupee indeed climbed. But there is a down side as well. The whole make in India campaign works only if the manufacturing in India is cheap. If rupee climbs, all things in India get a bit costlier and hence will increase manufacturing costs.

 

[Kshatriya87]

On a funnier note, Signora Gandhi once said that the Rupee rate is higher than PM's age. Modi took away that taunt as well from the congress !!

 

[Kshatriya87]

Reason for Currency Rise is fall of USD

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...lls-across-the-broad/articleshow/57850503.cms

 

[Kshatriya87]

I wouldn't get my hopes up. As soon as the dollar stabilizes, INR rise will stop. When the dollar rises again, INR will fall back down.




* Asian currencies rise on broad dollar weakness * Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, Indian rupee hit multi-month highs * Search for yield will support EM Asian currencies- analyst (Adds detail, updates prices) By Patturaja Murugaboopathy March 27 (Reuters) - Most Asian currencies hit multi-month highs on Monday as the dollar declined across the board after U.S. President Donald Trump failed to push through a healthcare reform bill. The collapse of the healthcare legislation has raised doubts about Trump's ability to deliver on other key campaign pledges such as tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending. However, after his setback, Trump said he would turn his attention to getting "big tax cuts" through Congress. The Taiwan dollar surged to a 30-month high at 30.244 per dollar, while the Thai bhat rose to a 20-month high at 34.429 per dollar. The Indian rupee and the South Korean won also touched multi-month highs on Monday. Emerging Asian currencies were also supported by a fall in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S Treasury yield stood at 2.3675 percent on Monday, the lowest in nearly a month. "Generally (the healthcare defeat) is a disappointment for the 'Trump trade'. But in terms of impact on risk sentiment, it is mixed given the Trump administration now says it will move on and focus on tax reform, which is relevant to the market," said Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist at Bank of Singapore. He also said the fall in U.S treasury yields would encourage carry trades in the emerging Asian currencies. "There is still desire to reach for yield, that's keeping the Asian currencies supportive", Sim said. Reuters calculations showed the carry trade in Indian rupee has yielded more than 5 percent this year. However, most of the Asian currencies' gains were linked to the region's rallying equity markets this year. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS has risen around 12 percent so far in 2017. Hencem equity inflows into the region would determine the Asian currencies' movements in the short term, some analysts said. "Our sense is that caution creeping in via equity market impact will act as the initial backstop for USD/AXJ." Mizhuo Senior Economist Vishnu Varathan said in a note. CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change on the day at 0633 GMT Currency Latest bid Previous Pct Move day Japan yen 110.160 111.3 +1.03 Sing dlr 1.394 1.3980 +0.31 Taiwan dlr 30.246 30.488 +0.80 Korean won 1112.800 1122.6 +0.88 Baht 34.439 34.591 +0.44 Peso 50.140 50.325 +0.37 Rupiah 13308.000 13326 +0.14 Rupee 65.080 65.41 +0.50 Ringgit 4.410 4.423 +0.29 Yuan 6.873 6.8850 +0.18 Change so far Currency Latest bid End 2016 Pct Move Japan yen 110.160 117.07 +6.27 Sing dlr 1.394 1.4490 +3.97 Taiwan dlr 30.246 32.279 +6.72 Korean won 1112.800 1207.70 +8.53 Baht 34.439 35.80 +3.95 Peso 50.140 49.72 -0.84 Rupiah 13308.000 13470 +1.22 Rupee 65.080 67.92 +4.36 Ringgit 4.410 4.4845 +1.69 Yuan 6.873 6.9467 +1.08 (Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy; Editing by Eric Meijer and Kim Coghill)

 

[Kshatriya87]

Rupee likely to appreciate further towards Rs 63/USD in next 6 months: Experts

The Indian currency, in morning trade which advanced as much as 11 paise against the dollar to breach the 65 level at 64.93 - a fresh 17-month high, could well touch levels of around 63/USD in the next 6 months, suggest experts.

The rupee opened after a day’s holiday as forex and money markets were closed on Tuesday for ‘Gudi Padwa’. It has risen as much as 4.4 percent against the US Dollar so far in the year 2017, supported by a gush of liquidity from foreign investors as well as stable political scenario.

“Since January nearly USD 5.3 billion has entered the equity market which has also been reflected in the movement in the stock indices. FPI flows into debt segment have also been positive in March and it remains to be seen if this is sustained over the next few months,” CARE Ratings said in a report.

The appreciation of rupee could continue in the short term, but in the long-term, experts feel that the rupee will weaken against the USD.

Technically, the USD-INR pair has given a breakdown of its “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern at 66.60 levels on a daily chart. Moreover, prices have been trading below its 50 DSMA which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.

We have collated views from various experts on rupee appreciation and where do they see rupee trending in the next 6 months:

Nikhil Kamath, Co-Founder & Head of Trading, Zerodha

The RBI intervention seems to be decreasing as forex markets and turnover are increasing quickly. We see this trend continuing and might see the Rupee appreciate up to the 63 levels, this works favorably for foreign investors who are buying up Indian debt on the back of higher returns caused by a currency move in Rupees favor.

We see the long-term average stabilizing between the 63-66 level.

Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution, Religare Securities Ltd.

While the 65 level was broken on Wednesday after a long time, there is considerable resistance at this level. We expect the rupee to get steadily weaker against the US dollar in the first six months of the next FY, perhaps ending at 66.50 by Diwali 2017.

Once the current exuberance is over, inflation and monsoons will continue to be factors to watch as also the dollar index. Our export competitiveness is also at stake and will force RBI to intervene. Either way, this will be a volatile year for the rupee.

Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in

It appears that major bottom is in place for Indian Rupee around Rs 69/USD and recently the way it has breached the critical resistance present at 66 is clearly suggesting that it has a long way to go.

Initially, we are expecting a target of 63.70 and probably, in near future, for quite a long time it should stuck up in a range of 66 – 63.70 kind of levels and clearly it looks that downsides are capped around 66.

Choice Broking:

The USD-INR pair has given a breakdown of its “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern at 66.60 levels on a daily chart. A momentum indicator RSI has remained below 45 levels, which suggest further negative momentum can be seen in the prices.

In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover and moving below its signal line on a daily chart. For trading perspective, one can sell USD-INR in the range of 65.20 with a stop loss of 65.40/USD for the target of 64.80/USD levels.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...s-63usd-in-next-6-months-experts-2248943.html