India:A global power in the making

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Emperor, Nov 18, 2009.

  1. Emperor

    Emperor Regular Member

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    Just want to highlight some important points that will lead to both victory and defeat.
    It is nothing new that almost 90% of the population are dreaming about the superpower status of India in the coming decades.But a small thing came in my mind that who is gonna give us this status? World or its citizens.Definitely it will be its citizens.For any country to project its power on the world screens it needs to be economically sound and strong.Then comes the military might. Today we are no where near in achieving the both,yet we are optimistic that we will be the same one day in future.

    Lets see how India can pull its objectives one after another.Most people often criticize India for its over burdened census and its majority living in poverty.But I am saying that the this over population is a boon to the economy if tackled properly.

    India is the only nation with more than 300 million middle class and high middle class. And ofcourse with a similar quantity of lower middle class which lie just above the poverty line.And to Honor its crown it has also embedded a jewel with a 300 million living in poverty.Most people are of the opinion that a country rise is most depended on foreign funds.But which may not be true in Indias case to some extent.
    People might be thinking what the heck is this guy talking,is he out of mind? blah blah.... Yes I want to project some hidden facts that can lead to an enormous economic growth and will change the countries stature in one go.
    People might be wonder where the hell is all the money gone that GOI has been spending all these years since Independence? the answer is,that money earmarked for development is sleeping in foreign banks like swiss banks for example.And a recent estimate stated that all the money laundered in the foreign banks could be anywhere around 4 trillion dollars. that is almost 22 times our early budget :D
    And no government takes the intiative to bring that money back to the country.Reason is simple.the leaders in the same government are the holders. Hence there is a dead end.No round ticket for the local money.

    So what? Are we really in dire need for FDI and FII? Unless these foreign investors invest in our land we cant make living? The Answer is a bold NO.

    Very recent estimate stated that more than 30% of the GDP is in savings in the country. i.e almost 400 billion. Once an economist prime minister said that a 100 billion investment in the country and kill half the poverty while at the same time raises the middle class. According to his logic, with the savings turned into investments we can eradicate all the poverty in less than 4-5 years.Since we are living in India we cant be ultra-optimistic hence I can get satisfied with a 10 year time line is all the theory is put into practise.

    Means the next ten years has to be crucial and are extremely important.and this will coincide with Mr.Kalams vision 2020 where he projected that 2020 will be year with no person living in poverty in the nation.

    This is another reason why India didnt struggled hard during the recession period while the whole world is turned upside down.Firstly we are not an export driven economy.Even till today we import a significant quantity of foreign goods which can be manufactured in the country with minimum cost.This 1.2 billion growing to 1.5 by 2020 will drive the economy like a high speed rail,given necessary measures were taken to reduce the poor-rich gap while elevation of people from poverty is done. My forecast predicts that from 2012 onwards, the growth will be in double digits for atleast 2 or 3 decades at the minimum.

    And consider the India reaching such position with its routine corruption and farse politicians.Any minor change in its governance will be a huge leap forward.

    Conclusion is,we are not dependant on outsiders for our rise.Our own population will only lead us to occupy the super power chair.
    Since we are getting economically stronger irrespective of outside developments,our military strength will grow relatively.

    As like what history taught us,we are always left alone in this mad mad world.No one will end up as a saviour of India.Indians are the only saviours of India.
    No US/Russi/UK/France/.......will come save us risking their national interests which ofcourse was recently welll documented with the US play of game. Untill recently they were the super powers donating to beggars and now they became the super power with a begging bowl running to China.Betting ourself on US will bring no good for the country.The last century has unmasked their true face as many times.
    Again ,it is a mad mad world.Everyone only looks at their own interests.We shouldnt become pawns of others.Lets be ourself and condemn every move by outsiders which is against national interest.

    We will definitely be superpower ,whether one agrees or not.But take it for granted :D

    JAI HIND.
     
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  3. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Rightly said Emperor ! Its high time that we Indians realize that nobody else is gonna fend for us, only Indians themselves can fend for India and put all our energies into uplift our status as a nation !! JAI HIND :dfi-1:
     
  4. karthikcode

    karthikcode New Member

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    jai hind

    correct boss u the true indian:india:
     
  5. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    Great post emperor reminds me of something i read" India is different; it is not an Asian tiger it is more like an Asian elephant the tiger runs fast and when it comes to a patch of thorns it gets hurt and has to stop, the elephant however throws the thorn bush aside and keeps moving at much the same pace".
     
  6. Emperor

    Emperor Regular Member

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    Thanks guys.

    Here is another important thing which I would like to share with you guys.During my last interaction with Ernst & Young people in an unofficial meeting,they projected the a growth factor of 2 digits from 2011 onwards.And this is only after considering the domestic growth models.

    I have no doubt that India will be an economic power house,but only concerned about the organizations(be it political or philanthropic) that are after helping the poor.Once the poverty is eliminated, the growth will be a steady train.
     
  7. CS1.6

    CS1.6 Regular Member

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    300million middle class?

    i dont get it, what is the standard for this middle class? by annual family income or anything else?

    can you please give more details about this standard?

    thanks
     
  8. Emperor

    Emperor Regular Member

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    It is based on annual income.
    This is what the stats proved and found:

    If the income of whole family or income of any single individual in that family falls in the range USD 5,4347-USD 27,1739 the family is considered as a middle class.And the amounts stated above are purely nominal values and not PPP.

    and people with incomes ranging between USD 2,567-USD 5,347 falls in the lower middle class while the families/individuals with incomes more than USD 456 are considered as ABL(just above poverty line)

    And a recent international seminar held in US about poverty and improving middle class detailed this about india.

    To give you more clarity ,family is considered as middle class if the family net incomes falls in that range and the person is considered middle class if his self income falls in that range.

    And the high middle class income levels are USD 27,000+ -- USD 1,24,000.
    And people with incomes over USD 124,000 are considered as rich and people with incomes > USD 217,391 are considered as high Rich class as per nominal terms.

    Note: Total fortune of top 100 rich in India with todays dollar and nominal values is $276 billion while the same of China is $170 billion more than a $100 billion difference :D

    Important to note is that,the middle classes average income tends to be marginally unchanged ,due to the fact that they wont invest in risky investments like stocks,instead they invest in gold and land.While the number of rich and ultra rich and billionaires vary heavily because of the fact that more than 80% of their assets are invested in equities and like.

    In India a middle class fellaw becomes rich under 2 most important conditions:
    1) He gets a high level corporate job which pays him millions.
    2)The land he bought for 1000`s today costs crores.

    But If a poor has to become middle class,only one important step:
    1) Need a job which pays him enough such that he can feed his family with nutritious food and save few pennies on top of that for his children education and stuff.

    This will be only plausible,if there is huge investments happen in core sectors.Hence I suggest the conversion of savings into investments in core sector.

    But If those savings are hugely invested in equities and alike, it will be a big devastation in near future and the stocks and every thing will reach the far far extreme highs making it impossible for freshers to invest and insecure.
     
  9. CS1.6

    CS1.6 Regular Member

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    Thanks for the long and detailed explaination;

    Now i have a clear understanding about the standard, however, you mentioned the 300m middle class, i do doubt this number, because according to your standard and numbers, there are now 300m people lived in a family that annual income falls in the range USD 5,4347-USD 27,1739;
     
  10. Emperor

    Emperor Regular Member

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    that income level is only for records.but I said 300m middle class people ,but not families. Got it?
     
  11. shotgunner

    shotgunner Regular Member

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    OK. Use conservative parameters now:
    1) take low side of the range i.e. US$54347 for 300 mil middle-class individual
    2) the other 1 billion of indians generate US$0

    Then national income = 300 mil x US$54347 = US$ 16304100 mil or US$ 16.3 trillion. Higher than USA (around US$ 14 trillion).

    Remember, that's just conservative. I believe that, raw data from E&Y (Indian branch I suppose?). I want E&Y do my audit before IPO.

    I got it.
     
  12. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, I think you got it wrong. Emperor said it also include a whole family income. So if a family's total income exceeds US$54347, the people of this family will all be regarded as middle class.

    But actually, india has another standard.

    "According to the Indian National Council of Applied Economic Research, the term “middle class” applies to those earning between $4,000 and $21,000 a year ($20,000-$120,000 in purchasing power parity terms).But this definition suits only about 60m (under 6 per cent) of the population. Nevertheless, there seems to be an underlying intuition about the “middle class-ness” of those moving up from $5 a day to $10. A recent study by CNN-IBN and the Hindustan Times suggested a “simple consumer-based criterion” for membership of the middle class: ownership of a telephone, a two or four-wheel (motorised) vehicle, and a colour television. Under this definition, the middle class makes up nearly 20 per cent of the population—200m people. "

    India’s middle class failure Prospect Magazine
     
  13. Emperor

    Emperor Regular Member

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    Sorry guys, there was a typo.

    the Range I mentioned had a typo in USD 5,4347-USD 27,1739; should actually
    be 5,434USD as lower level.
    And my estimate of 300 million is pured based on personal income rather than family annual income.

    It is apparent that may people will simply disbelieve the facts,but which is absolutely true.

    the fact that the total income dont tally with neither the GDP nominal nor the PPP is that most the individuals who earn is not accounted.And is simply out of GOI records.

    A simple eye opener is that,
    there is a small town in the out skirts of my native place.When one of my buddies dad is contesting for elections as an MLA for a newly raised party ,he wanted to know the true stats of the individuals in his constituency and their incomes so can he can throw some schemes/projects based on necessities and required amenities.When an individual survey was laid, in a constituency of 7,80,000 out of every ones expectations and assumptions the stats thrilled every one. as many as 600,000 are earning a min of Rs225,000/year and the lowest income stood at 60,000 Rs/year
    Of these 40% has their main occupation as agriculture and other 60% do the job ranging from IT to a basic car mechanic.
    When the stats deviated a lot over the GOI published stats,they went to the revenue offices in the constituency.the reply which came out from the mouth of that revenue officer shocked every one that,
    of all the stores and small scale industries only few register themselves and file taxes and returns.Only those employees working for big companies/public sector have an accounted incomes.Whilst a lot of other individuals earn and spend un-noticed.This is a blatant fact and one has to chew it ,considering the shabby state of Indian organization.

    The chai wallah at the end of our street who simply makes the chai and sells makes as much as 2000Rs as daily revenue.And he never bothers to get his income accounted.And even after earning that lump sum of money, he dont move to another profession.He comes in an SUV with his items ,parks the SUV on the side and opens the store. And do you know how many people like him all over the nation?
    Even persons like him for every 10 streets in cities and towns are making a huge fortune un noticed.( this is a simpleeee example)And again coming back,the revenue officer also explained that the GOI is loosing as much as twice the direct/indirect tax collection due to such un-noticed stores/chai dhukans and like.

    No Smoking,

    If GOI itself has failed to notice this kinda income earners, then under which case by case basis does an UK magazine can pull the true statics?

    there are pros and cons due to these un accounted earners.
    pro is that people are earning somehow and making a good living.
    Con is that GOI is failing to receive the intended taxes.
    IF I go to timhortons here, I have to pay tax even If I go get a medium hot choclate/ iced cappuccino_On the contrary the same wont happen in India.

    Only a person with reality check will know the true stats.
    Shotgunner, No need for being sarcastic.Those insurance companies and investor relations companies has done a pure individual statistical analysis before they came to conclusion.And do we expect a magazine to opt for a statistical measure of 1.2 billion just to publish a crappy story to swear few words ?

    P.S: I was just wondering why the chinese are so concerned about the middle class? Well....I would appreciate if you guys can either bring an actually done individual based stats/ gov stats analysis.
     
  14. huanle

    huanle Regular Member

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  15. Emperor

    Emperor Regular Member

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    again ,people simply show off their ignorance.
    In my previous post,I explained in detail that there was an unexpected variation even between the GOI figures and the actual figures.And yet,fellow chinese members simply jump in with foreign sources who simply copy and paste on their websites.

    And by the way,I asked for chinese income levels and not hong kong which used to be a british union territory until recently.

    If you are shamed of putting down your figures, its ok dont bother :D

    And the Reuters report you presented is simply absurd.Not even a day dreamer who grades India as a 3rd word country can put such nasty stats.
     
  16. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    The income and living standards vary from region to region in China. $5400 isn't considered as middle class income in majority of Chinese regions. What do we have to be shamed of?
     
  17. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Our figure? You mean those "Commie propaganda" called by you?

    Since when you guys are welcoming the figure from chinese source?

    Now, the western figure was rejected by you either. It seems we can only accepted your figure without any question. How democratic it is.
     

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