A global scenario projected by Britainâ€™s ministry of defence says that by 2045 India is likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globally with the third largest defence expenditure pegged at 654 billion US dollars. Titled â€˜Global Strategic Trends â€“ Out to 2045â€™, the publication by the ministryâ€™s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre sets out what the world might look like 30 years from now. It looks at a range variables, including energy, mineral resources, conflict and migration. â€œAlthough Chinaâ€™s military-industrial complex is unlikely to surpass the technological sophistication of the US by 2045, it may rival it in terms of size, as could Indiaâ€™s. Both India and China will probably seek to develop sizeable and technically advanced armed forces, including ocean-going navies, capable of delivering an enduring and capable maritime presence both regionally and further afieldâ€, the paper says. The analysis on South & East Asia and Oceania says: â€œThe military capabilities of other countries in the region are also likely to increase but only China, India, Australia, Japan (which is actively increasing its military capability) and South Korea are likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globallyâ€. However, the analysis notes that although India is likely to spend more on defence than the UK, it will â€œalmost certainly have to overcome domestic political issues and improve the way it invests to attain the capabilities needed to project conventional military power globallyâ€. According to the projection, the US and China are likely to have similarly sized defence budgets, potentially out-spending the rest of the world by 2045. India could have a defence budget equivalent to the EUâ€™s total spending on defence, it says. â€œAdditionally, China, India and the US are likely to lead in defence-related research and development â€“ further enhancing their military capabilitiesâ€, the paper says. In terms of Technology, the paper says that China and India are likely to attain global leadership in select technical disciplines, achieving parity with the West in a number of niche areas as soon as 2015 and more widely by 2045. Stating that China and India will â€œalmost certainly continue to be the dominant powersâ€ in the region, the paper says that the ways the two countries manage their societiesâ€™ demands and their internal methods of governance will be important to the regionâ€™s development. In terms of conflict, it is projected that Kashmir would continue to one of the areas of tension, including the border between China and India. â€œThe risk of a major state-on-state conflict in the region cannot be ruled outâ€, it says. The paper is based on inputs from a range of individuals and global institutions, including Indiaâ€™s Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, United Services Institute and the Vivekananda International Foundation.