INDIA 2030---Posted by Steve Coll

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by ajtr, May 14, 2010.

  1. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    INDIA 2030


    Posted by Steve Coll
    At a think tank, it is possible to pass the time by pulling out of your in-box two-inch-thick research reports with titles such as, “India’s Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.” (This one happened to arrive from the McKinsey Global Institute.) As a one-time urban householder in India, I was curious enough in this case to page through the statistical forecasts and recommendations. Essentially, if I understand it correctly, the report’s authors provide a specific strategy by which India’s government could emulate the pathways followed by urban planners in other leapfrogging economies in Asia and Latin America. The plan is attached to a warning: “If India continues with its current unplanned urbanization path, it will result in a sharp deterioration in the quality of life in its cities, putting even today’s rates of economic growth at risk.”

    The report contains a forecast of per-capita growth in India’s gross domestic product, particularly in its cities. By 2030, it predicts, Mumbai will have a population of thirty-three million and a per capita G.D.P. of $8,000, in 2008 prices. Delhi will have a population of twenty-six million and a per capita G.D.P. of $11,400. Those are astonishing numbers. Absent nuclear war with Pakistan, South Asia will have graduated from poverty to middle-income status in my (hoped-for) professional lifetime. Already rents, land prices, and housing prices are way out of whack in Delhi and other international cities. But it is hard to begrudge a long-benighted country the problems that come with rising wealth.

    The problem with urban planning in India, however, lies in a cause of national success—the country’s resilient democracy. In China the government transformed cities in a single decade by razing slums, issuing draconian rules about residency and education permits, and so on. The McKinsey report authors argue something similar could be achieved in India by a determined government. But eminent domain can be as hard to exercise in Indian cities as it is in the NIMBY exurbs of the United States. As a friend remarked when I was there earlier this year, as we snaked through traffic jam after traffic jam, most of them caused by road construction sites, India will be fine installing modern infrastructure such as cell phones and wireless broadband—as long as it doesn’t involve land; land use is the mother of Indian conflict.
     
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  3. BunBunCake

    BunBunCake Regular Member

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    These are huge cities, and they are and will be developing at a fast rate (we don't need this think tank's OBVIOUS predictions). The title of the thread should be India's Big Cities -- 2030. Not INDIA. Because 99.999% of other parts of India is still living in dumps. Less than $2 day, ETC! We all know this.
     
  4. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    The bolded part wow I didn't know this. care to enlighten this poor soul with source of such wisdom please
     
  5. Agantrope

    Agantrope Senior Member Senior Member

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    Bolded part - Is it so??

    $2 can be accepted to some extent, but????
     
  6. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    Not possible, not healthy for a country like India, either. Reliable indicators of economic growth don't come from urban settlements in India. They come from tier-3 cities or towns. If NCR continues to vacuum all investment from North-Central India, at some point its counter-magnets will fail, and there will be a huge influx of people from neighbouring states who will set up ghettos around the city if living in it is not possible.
     
  7. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    The NCR will be increased from the present extreme limits of gurgaon, faridabad, noida and Ghaziabad to alwar in rajastahan, and sonipat in haryana just to sight two examples, there has been such a deliberation happening for sometime now and it should be done soon enough. The radius from central delhi to one side will be 100kms, and with in an excellent infrastructure in place.

    In north chandigarh, jaipur have come up as good IT alternatives to the NCR, with himachal, uttrakhand, haryana doing very well and Punjab doing decently well especially if one is to look at the industrial investments going into these states, though I find the politicians in Punjab having their priorities misplaced.

    I think what will happen is, just the way we have layers of cities/towns, soon enough we will have layers of states/regions. There will be some who would have shot off and would form the top most layer like Gujarat, maharashtra, tamilnadu, etc, states which would compete with the very best in the world on most aspects followed by a second layer which will be self sustaining and providing good opportunities to their residents to another layer which will be a region which will remain in troubled waters which will possibly compromise of present days BIMAROU states, naxal infested, and terrorism infested belts, and these will be the regions/states which will be more or less left behind and these are the places which require the most attention, and very good governance, and sadly as it may sound these troubled areas will comprise the most part of India in terms of population and area covered, right from parts of north to central to south to north-east.
     
  8. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    Correct. My point though was that NCR's counter-magnets (Bareilly, Kanpur, Kota, Patiala, Dehradun, and Gwalior) aren't keeping up its expansion. This much nucleation of population and wealth is bad for more than one reason:
    • Water tables will tank, Yamuna or not
    • Strategic distribution of national assets, wealth, and institutions is safer than nucleation (in case of war or natural disaster)
    • Will create poverty and underinvestment in areas away from it
    • Growth not inclusive holistic
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2010
  9. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    thank god the south has got uniform development.The only city of repute in the north is delhi other than that nope.
     
  10. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    You guys failed to catch the sarcasm.
     
  11. BunBunCake

    BunBunCake Regular Member

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    Comeon, I didn't mean literally 99% of India lives in poverty. (sorry if i mislead you)

    You should admit the situation in India is pretty bad. As an Indian, I am exaggerating more, and I feel sad and ashamed that half of us are living in such crap conditions. Before we talk more, we need that solved.
     
  12. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    half of us now this is again a wisdom I am not against criticism but this sort of statements don't help in any constructive discussion
     

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