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Western estimate of Chinese strategic thermonuclear warheads is clearly wrong.
In the last 20 years, China added the DF-31A ICBM, DF-5B ICBM, DF-41 ICBM, and JL-2 SLBMs.
There should have been a huge spike in Chinese strategic thermonuclear warheads due to the four new classes of Chinese ICBMs/SLBMs. Instead, the West kept its estimate of Chinese strategic thermonuclear warheads unchanged from 1980.
The West is pretending that China never deployed the Chinese DF-31A, DF-5B, DF-41, and JL-2.
In conclusion, it should be obvious to anyone with an iota of intelligence that the West has intentionally frozen the count of Chinese strategic thermonuclear weapons at the 1980 level, regardless of reality.