IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2014 released

Discussion in 'China' started by Martian, Apr 9, 2014.

  1. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

    Sep 25, 2009
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    The latest IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database has been updated. There are no surprises.

    Link: World Economic Outlook Database | International Monetary Fund

    Wikipedia has updated their spreadsheet with the latest IMF WEO April 2014 data. Let's take a look.

    In 2013, China became a $9.2 trillion economy. Japan fell below $5 trillion.

    For 2014, China will become a $10 trillion economy. Japan is still below $5 trillion. Brazil, Russia, and India are each about $2 trillion.

    Remarkably, China's economy is five times larger than either Brazil, Russia, or India. The Chinese economy is still growing faster than the other BRIC countries. This means the gap between China and the other BRICs will increase to six times larger in the near future.

    Slowly, but inexorably, China is catching up to the U.S. economy. I think there is an upcoming revision to the way that the U.S. calculates its service economy. For example, investments in movies and software will be counted as part of the service GDP and no longer counted only when the movie tickets or DVDs are sold. This will provide a bump to U.S. GDP and make it harder for China to catch up.

    Also, China's economy is slowing. It's about 7.5% economic growth this year. It could easily decelerate to 6% annually in the upcoming years. However, over the long term, China's currency should continue appreciating (due to U.S. political pressure). Thus, China will keep closing the distance between the U.S. and Chinese GDPs. It might take a few more years than people expected for China to match U.S. nominal GDP.

    IMF GDP estimates between 2010 and 2019



    On the per-capita front, China's per-capita GDP will be $7,333 this year. By 2018, Chinese per-capita GDP will cross the $10,000 mark.

    In 2009, China was ranked 102nd in the world in per-capita GDP. This year, China is ranked 82nd in the world. Given the relatively strong growth in the Chinese economy, China should keep rising through the per-capita GDP ranks.

    IMF Per Capita GDP estimates between 2010 and 2019


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