Yusuf,
USA's weak link in this context is Israel, and Israel will not tolerate any country in its neighborhood which can dare challenge their very existence, so iran, or for that matter any west Asian country with nukes is a definite no-no for them. The trouble starts if iran ends up with nukes, which then means a domino effect, where the rest in west-Asia would also want them.
Iranian nuke sites will be taken out, either with US on board, or being only notified at the very last moment by the Israelis. But will this lead to a regime change or not is the real question because an attack on iran could well unify the whole county behind the current regime, as such Persians remain very proud about who they are, and their existence.
Long time Ritesh, hope you doing well,
anyways here goes.
Possibility of it being counter productive is a extremely good point. But if we are going for limited strikes and regime change, then there will be people on the ground with enough critical mass to ensure such an outcome
Adux,
Let the US compensate us today, what is stopping them from doing it today? Why wait for tomorrow? Let them make way for indian oil PSUs, which will then take up the stake and at reasonable rates, and then we will have our oil needs well secured.
I am extremely practical, Ritesh. I completely and totally understand current (stress) USA position. Like it or not, Pakistan have them by the balls. American companies even lost out to European companies in Iraq. That is not how they work. There is something far important to India than some paltry difference in oil prices, ensuring the denuking and splitting of Pakistan. That would add atleast 2-3% to our economy and China will not have it that easy.
When the americans negotiate both with india and pakistan, are they being fence sitters? No, they are pursuing their interests, likewise we are doing. The art of diplomacy remains, you negotiate with everyone with whom you share interests, even though the others you negotiate with might not see eye to eye, which should be their problem, not ours.
You are being emotional at past transgressions of the US. I am not, because I am sure India plans to transgress on US toes soon.
If the eventuality of a regime change is true and imminent, then being a fence sitter doesnt work for us. But if the status quo is what is going to continue and the current regime doesnt change, there is absolutely no need to change our policy.
No Adux, the key is not about timing. Key remains we list up all our interests in Iran, and negotiate all those with the powers that want us to take sides, and we do a very hard bargain. At the end, country ought to gain the max, that for me is taking a stand, ie taking a stand for the country, and for no one else.
I dont think I get your point, the current Iranian regime is anti-india to a large extend, has not really helped us in encircling Pakistan.
But the point is when will the change happen? The war rhetoric has been on going for well over a decade now, can we be certain it will happen tomorrow? Fact remains, no matter who governs Iran, we have to have good relations with them for the sheer reason that they provide us access to CAR and Afghanistan. We have just secured raw material contracts in A'stan, and more are to be had, and all the transportation of the same will happen through Iran, then there remains a definite chance of taliban returning in A'stan, and we then again find a common cause.
To be honest, you are not being quite coherent and connected in your own thoughts here.
Taliban will come to Afghanistan, if US withdraws. Is India ready to send in troops to Afghanistan to protect our interest. NO. We are too much of pussies for that. So the only way for us to ensure the protection of our interest and contracts to have American troops there, who will ensure taliban will not take over.
Taliban is proxy pakistan, but the US has its logistics running through Pakistan, the only way US has freedom of movement and total will power in Afghanistan, is if its actions are not hindered and tampered by Pakistan, so the only option is Iran. You think without the US WoT, India would even got even one contract in Afghanistan?
India's NEEDS
US to be in Afghanistan, till Afghanistan can protect itself from Taliban and Pakistan
US need to be out of the clutches of Pakistan, which hinders its action on terrorism and Taliban
Make sure Iran doesnt have a nuclear weapon
Our route to Afghanistan remains open.
Now, if we achieve the above
US without the concern of its logistical chain running through Pakistan, it can take on the ISI
Iran which currently doesnt but can now be made to refocus on Pakistan ( making the Pakistani Army divide its forces to Iran, Afghanistan and India)
FACT
Current Iranian regime gives us OiL in a bit of a discount, because nobody else can actually buy from them, only China and we can do it
They are also not ready to coperate with us in regards to Pakistan.
Let us not cut short our memories, please recall 2010, and the way Pakistan was being allowed to have its way in A'stan, and the way we had then been ignored, it seemed all that we had done in A'stan had gone down the gutter and betrayal was written all over, and that is when we went back to Iran and Russia. Seeing that and facing a double game from Pakistan, USA changed its course again, and then we had a re-entry, or pretty much everything was lost, and I am talking about events which have happened less than two years ago to us.
NO you are wrong on that. It had nothing to do with Iran or Russia. It did not even have anything to do with USA-India, it had everything to do with deteoriation of Pakistan- US and Pakistan- Afghanistan relationship
How do we know the sense being drilled into us is not financed, and presented in a way that it seems logical to the viewer. All of a sudden everyone seems so interested in subject, which otherwise never ever mattered to the main stream media, things certainly dont happen out of the blue, and in a corporate media, certainly not, those chaps have profits to make.
Because I know better than the media.
One thing I really dont get, why is it that the more is only expected off us? If we are a power to be, should we for a change also not expect something? Which is precisely what I mean by bucking under pressure. It is us who will have to create a level playing ground, else as I said in another post, we will either end up being a japan or in a worst case scenario, a Pakistan to the US. Most important is, how we negotiate today will set the ball rolling for tomorrow, and will be followed by generations to come. If we have to take a stand, only take a stand for our interests, and so will happen in times to come as well, and so will the likes of US deal with us. We make concessions today, and they will ask for double that tomorrow.
West may want everything from us, we dont have to give it anything.
If this eventuality, is true that Iran will face a regime change, then there is no point India being a fence sitter or a Iranian supporter.
Agree, but are they really being threatened as is being made out to be? Had it been so, Israel would have ceased to exist long back. Pakistanis have said a zillion things about us, and we still stand where we did, and Iran even with all the rhetoric comes across as much more saner. Also, Israel is not a power which doesnt have nukes with it, Iran dare dose something, there wont be an Iran tomorrow, and it wont just be Israel pounding them, but pretty much whole of the west and rest of west-Asia.
Israel will cross it, so will the west. I dont think the west is going to sit there and just go down as hasbeen's especially against some camel jockeys
Anyways, I am least interested in either of these two countries, what they say or how they justify it, and I am not here to justify any of their actions. All I care for is, our interests are met the best way possible, and if we have to do a give, then we have our take which is many-many times of that give.
Who is asking to India give anything, India has to be pragmatic. I am saddened that even after repeating how French behaved 6 months before the conflict to Libya, and to take that as an example. You all are simply not to getting and getting into the usual whinefest about how India has always been taken advantage , has done more than share etc etc etc.
