If Russia nukes Saudi Arabia, will it benefit India?

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by pmaitra, Aug 28, 2013.

  1. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    If Russia nukes Saudi Arabia, will it benefit India?

    This is my question to you all. Please present your view on the pros and cons, if such a thing should happen, although it has not yet been reported by any major news organization.

    This is with reference to this news article (see spoiler below) posted here: http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/west-asia-africa/20816-syrian-crisis-179.html#post783944


    N.B.: Kindly note that the original article did not mention 'nuke,' and I have added it in the title to create a dramatic effect.
     
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    More discussion from previous thread:







     
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  4. PredictablyMalicious

    PredictablyMalicious Punjabi Senior Member

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    Saudi Arab are very nice countries not sure why you want to obliterate it? :confused:
     
  5. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Re: The Syrian Crisis

    Sadly, the pay-offs of a full scale military offensive against SA do not outweigh the costs. If terrorism is the root cause of any military strike then Pakistan should be the priority target(specially in case of India).

    Under protection from the US, invasion of SA for its resources is completely unfeasible and surgical strikes won't achieve anything since their support to global terror is monetary. It is highly unlikely any nation would consider such a move, well maybe Iran.
    @pmaitra: Can you move this post to the new thread?
     
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  6. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    We are bad people. :sad:
     
  7. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    If that was a sarcasm, I missed it. If not, thank you for your candid observation. Also, I will not be able to tell you, again, why I would welcome a strike against KSA. That is because, the reason has already been stated clearly in the post above your's, which you have not read, so there is no hope that writing another post explaining this will have any meaningful impact.
     
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  8. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    One thing for sure is crude oil / petrol price will skyrocket.

    India, as one of top importers, will be an victim... hefty inflation anticipated.

    Who are the obvious beneficiaries? Iran, Iraq, and RUSSIA!

    Check below import figures from Saudi, and "Petroleum Crude"

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Re: The Syrian Crisis

    Well, it is not as if India is attacking KSA. The question is, whether it will benefit India. I think @amoy has provided a valid point, that the price of crude will increase.

    Now, India could get oil from Iran and Iraq, but not Russia, as PRC and Pakistan have effectively cut India off from Central Asia. So, any Russian oil or gas for India will have to come through Iran, or via Asia-Pacific.
     
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  10. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    Attacking KSA basically means again a US/Russia tiff under a nuclear overhang.

    Pro:
    > Wahhabism will be reduced
    > Global Terrorist funding will be dealt a serious blow
    > Kashmir would be safer; Pak weaker
    > Bangladesh might just become friendlier to India

    Con:
    > Iran would be the next regional leader
    > Iran funded terrorism from Kerala would increase
    > Global oil price would spike dramatically
    > Israel would be at war

    Just a few points from the top of my head...
     
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  11. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Re: The Syrian Crisis

    I posted this before I was aware that a thread had been created and was replying to your previous post.

    Now since the stakes have been escalated to to nuclear warfare, I would have to say that there is no way it can be beneficial for us.

    1) This will be seen as an attack on all Muslims(the holy place and all). Being the only Muslim nuclear power Pakistan would surely use this attack as an opportunity for proliferating nukes in the Ummah, which includes our neighbor Bangladesh. Hence, increasing tension in the region manifolds for us.

    2) Nuclear warfare in the region will force us to spend more on our own forces causing an economic burden.

    3) The environmental aspect.

    4) This would do nothing to stop terrorism on our soil and in all likelihood will multiply it.

    Even if we take nukes out of the picture and limit the scenario to a planned military campaign, there is little we would achieve. However, if an offensive is preceded by global isolation of Saudi Arabia(read no US protection) and if SA is left to fend for itself we could make some gains. I really doubt that without American protection the Saudis have any capacity/stomach for war.
     
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  12. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I wasn't aware of that. Are majority of Kerala Muslims Shias?
     
  13. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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  14. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    arnabmit likes this.
  15. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    But it says that Iran does collude with ISI. The ship detention is also an example of Iran's Anti-India stance.

     
  16. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    You said, "Iran funded terrorism from Kerala would increase." Firstly, is the premise true? Is Iran at all funding terrorism in Kerala? Secondly, would it increase?
     
  17. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    From the reports, it seems true. Majority of Kerala's Muslims are Sunnis. But then again, majority of the Indian Muslims don't become Jihadists as well.

    If Iran acquires a leading regional role, then Iran might replace KSA as ISI's prime financier, albeit at a much lesser scale.

    My speculation is this: While the Iran backed ISI's forces come from south India, the KSA backed ISI's forces come from the north India. These forces are deliberately kept apart by ISI to keep infighting at bay.

     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2013
  18. jamesvaikom

    jamesvaikom Regular Member

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    If Russia nukes Saudi Arabia then India will benefit. But I don't think Russia will do anything to Saudi Arabia that will reduce demand for oil. If they nuke Saudi Arabia then many people will die. Reduce in population will affect demand for oil. Human loss will reduce demand for oil and material loss will increase demand for oil. So Russia will prefer to destroy oil wells than to nuke Saudi Arabia. That will help spread Arab Spring to Saudi Arabia and to throw monarch away from power. Material loss will force Saudi Arabia employ more Indians for reconstruction. We can use that money to buy oil at higher rates from countries like Russia. Attack on Saudi Arabia which cause high casualties or material loss is good for India. We prefer casualties while Russia prefer material loss.
    @arnabmit
    Iranians hate sunnis more than other religions. I think ship detention was to increase demand for Iranian oil. If Iran fund money to extremists in Kerala then that will only help sunni groups. I don't think they will do that.
     
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  19. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

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    @arnabmit
    Wonder where you got that information on Iran-funded terror from Kerala. Kerala is overwhelmingly Sunni and the Wahhabi groups get funds Saudi sources. So Suadis getting bogged down will cut that fund flow. The Shias of Kerala are mostly of Kutchchi origin. Or Islmailis from Rajasthan... businessmen. They settled in Kerala's port towns long back... and are businessmen. In fact Wahhabis hate them.

    Saudi resources getting tied down in domestic rebuilding in case of a massive attack will be good news for global peace.

    1. Less funds for Wahhabi extremists across the world -- in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and all the trouble being fomented across Asia.

    2. Crude prices might shoot up initially, but stabilize as other oil producers start pumping more oil.

    3. The farce of Saudi aid for Asian natural calamities will come to an end. Everytime a calamity hits an Asian county, Saudis rush in with funds for building two mosques in place of one destroyed. It is another matter that they might throw in a hospital too along with half a dozen mosques.

    4. the evil House of Sauds that meddles in all other Arab countris will be replaced. That would mean more peace in the region as Iran's saber rattling is always in response of Saudi needling.
     
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  20. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

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    @jamesvaikom
    There is always the possibility of an Al Qaeda takeover of Saudi Arabia if the Sauds fall. But that will also put an end to Yankee needling of Shia ruled countries on behalf of the Sauds. And the other countries of the Persian Gulf will have to close ranks to fight Al Qaeda-led Saudi Arabia. Iran with Russian blessings will rise as a regional power and that will be good for India.... even with the recent badblood between the two countries.

    Yes, if Russians target only Saudi oil areas, which do not cause much human casualties but massive material losses, that will eventually be good for India.
     
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  21. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    The day it happens would be the best day of my life. Saudi do not deserve to exist.
     
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