If Pakistan splinters...
Bharat Verma
The Chinese will suffer a major setback if dysfunctional Pakistan splinters in the near future.
This is the singular reason for the Chinese to move their troops into Gilgit Baltistan, the northern areas of PoK. The strategy is two-fold.
First, to occupy or gain influence over as much occupied Indian Territory as possible, in case Pakistan breaks up.
Second, to keep up the pressure on Indian borders since Pakistan is no position to do the same given its present internal disarray.
Further, China does not want India to be emboldened to mount an attack on Pakistan, which is already gasping for oxygen.
With the break-up of Pakistan, ISI activities like export of fake Indian currency and infiltration of terrorists through Nepal will cease. Anti-India rabble rousing by ISI inspired elements in Bangladesh will no longer be possible.
The Union of India's consolidation and integration as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan in the name of religion is eliminated.
India then will be able to concentrate on the principal threat posed by China.
A Fragmented Pakistan will lessen the heavy financial burden placed on India's economy with drastic reduction in the security apparatus. This will enable young India to make rapid economic strides that can outpace ageing China in a short span of time.
However, if Pakistan falls apart, Sind, which has very strong democratic yearning, is certain to chart its own independent path, but in consonance with Indian value system.
Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources will be definitely against the Chinese, who are exploiting its resources in conjunction with Islamabad. Denial of Gwadar port will preclude Chinese navy from the warm waters of Indian Ocean and direct access to West Asia.
The biggest gain for the democracies will be that China's expanding authoritarian influence will be sharply curtailed. Also the Jihad fervor being orchestrated in this part of the world by the Punjabi Sunnis will die a natural death due to fatigue and lack of resources.
The spread of two authoritarian streams, Chinese communism and the Islamic fundamentalism, in combination or otherwise, threaten the survival of democracies in Asia.
If Pakistan splinters, one of the threats will be substantially neutralised.
This in turn will make Central Asia, where Pakistan aims to attain strategic depth with the help of Islamic fundamentalists, a safer place
If Pakistan splinters, Xinjiang in China will face renewed instability, and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come under severe pressure.
With independent Sind and Baluchistan, the Chinese supply lines from Gwadar would also get blocked. This will force China to revert to 'peaceful rise' instead of laying claim on territory or islands of other nations.
The power of the Shias will increase, thus creating a balance with some of the Sunni sects that are mainly responsible for terrorist acts worldwide.
