If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter survey

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Black Cats, Aug 16, 2013.

  1. Black Cats

    Black Cats Regular Member

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    If elections were to happen today, Congress would lose 122 seats: India Today CVoter survey

    India Today Online New Delhi, August 15, 2013 | UPDATED 10:00 IST



    If elections to the Lok Sabha were to be held this month, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance is likely to lose 122 seats, says the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation opinion poll which is being featured in the magazine's next issue which will hit the stands on August 16.

    Though the UPA's numbers will come down to 137 from the 259 it now has, it does not mean the NDA gains these seats. The BJP-led alliance may also lose four seats, and end up with a smaller tally of 155.

    The seats the UPA now holds will, in fact, go to other parties, most of them regional. The other parties may gain 126 seats and with 251 seats can claim stake to form the government as a Third Front.

    The poll said the UPA has been consistently losing support of voters since 2010.

    [​IMG]

    However, there will be a major flip in the vote share of the UPA and the NDA.

    The ruling alliance's share will be down to 28 per cent-a fall of 8 per cent, while the opposition alliance's vote share will jump by six per cent to reach 32 per cent.

    If the seat shares are broken down for each state, the Congress will lose 26 of the 33 seats in Andhra Pradesh despite its decision to carve out Telangana with big gains for the TRS.

    In Bihar, the JD-U, which just snapped its ties with the BJP, will lose 10 seats. The BJP will however not gain much. The winner will be the RJD, with a jump from 4 to 14 seats.

    In Gujarat, the BJP will win 25 seats and the Congress a mere 5. But the BJP will lose 12 seats in Karnataka and gain will be for the Congress.

    Maharashtra will see a rise of the Shiv Sena and decline of the Congress.

    [​IMG]

    And in Uttar Pradesh, the state that can swing the general elections, the Congress will lose 16 seats while the SP will win 34 and the BSP 27 of the 80 seats. The BJP will be left with only two more seats from its 2009 tally of 10, says the opinion poll.

    The Trinamool Congress will be strengthened with the party winning more than half of the 42 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal. The Left Front will also gain two seats.

    The study is based on a national representative sample of 15,815 randomly selected respondents across all 28 states between August 2 and 10, with interviews conducted face-to-face. Margin of error is +\-3 per cent.



    Link - If elections were to happen today, Congress would lose 122 seats: India Today CVoter survey : North, News - India Today
     
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  3. Black Cats

    Black Cats Regular Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Even the paid survey is afraid to predict Modi :toilet: win.......I'm still searching for Modi's :toilet: magic.
     
  4. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Who has paid for this survey in your opinion.
     
  5. aragorn

    aragorn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Glad to hear that out of 26 seats of Gujarat BJP will win 25 and Congress 5.
     
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  6. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    a) C-Voter surveys are wrong 9/10 times - in 2009 they predicted a close call for UPA and NDA gains when in fact the voter, esp the urban voter, gave a handsome 200+ seats to Congress !

    b) Seems interested parties are trying to scare the voter with the specter of Third Front.
     
  7. aragorn

    aragorn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    that is more likely. People will be scared once they know there is a possibility of Mulayam can become next PM. :D
     
  8. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Mulayam-Maya-Mamta all are bad options.
     
  9. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    For all these years no one contacted me for opinion poll.
     
  10. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    India today group though BJP-Advani supporter is some what nagative against Modi. Yesterday also just after Modi speech they aired LKA Speech saying this not the time to say these things about PM.
     
  11. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    155 seats for NDA is not good news for Modi. May be Sushma, Arun and Rajnath must be rejoicing. Those who can control 30-50 seats from others will be king.
     
  12. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Now i am expecting more flames and coded public statements from Modi to won over other seats.
     
  13. Shirman

    Shirman Regular Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Modi factor will play a huge role for BJP as for C-voter it says the same thing in July 13 too at Times/ TOI opinion poll............nothing new........3rd/4th front not possible
    link :- Congress clear loser, but BJP far from victory, opinion poll says - Times Of India

    Play the prediction game with this amazing site

    http://www.indiavotes.com/tools/swin...y/pc/143/15/27

    As of now my estimates

    BJP - 170-175 (J&K 2, Punjab 3, Haryana 2, Delhi 4, Uttarakhand 3, Himachal 2, Rajasthan 18, MP 23, Chattisgarh 10, UP 30, Bihar 15, Jharkhand 7, Gujrat 21, Maharashtra 15, Goa 2, Karnataka 7, Andhra 2, West Bengal 2, Orissa 1, Assam 5 and a couple from rest of the places)

    BJP Supporting parties - 20-25 SAD 7, HJC 1, SS 12, AGP 2

    Congress - 125-130 J&K 2, Punjab 3, Haryana 6, Delhi 3, UK 1, Himachal 2, Rajasthan 7, MP 6, C'garh 3, UP 5, Bihar 2, J'kand 4, Gujrat 5, Maharashtra 13, Kar 18, Andhra 10, TN 2, WB 6, Orisaa 2, Assam 6, Kerala 7, rest of the states - 10

    Congress supporting parties - 40-45 DMK 6, RJD 6, LJP 1, NCP 10, NC 2, BSP 15

    Other parties - 175+ Left 30, TMC 20, AIADMK 25, SP 25, BJD 15, TDP 10, YSRC 12, TRS 8, JDU 15

    Key states for Congress - Rajasthan , UP and AP which gave it 20+21+33 = 75 seats. Right now major losses expected with 7+5+10= 22 seats. Improved position in Karnataka will be some relief though. As of for now their aim would be to somehow reach 140-145 and limit the BJP to 150-155

    For BJP - Rajasthan and the cow belt are the main focus states Bihar, Jharkhand, UP and Uttarakhand ) with total 25+40+14+80+5- 165 seats. Last time it won 5+12+8+10+0 -35 seats, needs to push it upto 75-80 seats for it to go near total 175+. Looks doable with Raj 18-20, Bihar 15-17, UP 30-35, UK 3-4 and Jharkhand 8-9 seats

    Three factors - New and improved Hindutva with external Suraksha and threats, Modi's OBC card and Kalyan Singh impact (Lodhs 5% of population and majorly influence at least 10-11 seats in the Agra, Aligarh, Ferozabad, Farrukhabad belt). A major reason of BJP's decline in UP has been the disenchantment of the non-yadav OBCs and MBCs. Kalyan coming back and Modi's OBC card could help bridge that gap.

    Lets see how it goes
     
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  14. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    I'd say its good,bad & worse news. UPA 122 down,NDA 4 down & regional parties gaining. DISASTER!!
     
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  15. Shirman

    Shirman Regular Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    No its a superb tactic by both Modi and Advani.............to confuse their rivals.............
     
  16. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Regular Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    Congress would most probably lose many seats, but who would gain is not certain. If SP emerges as the most powerful then they would support diminished Congress and we would have more 5 years of dynastic Raj. BJP would form government only if it gains clear or near clear majority.
     
  17. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    MY estimates are BJP on its own 200-215 seats under NAMO provided he is declared the PM candidate.
     
  18. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    So, still little chance of govt. formation for NDA ...? BJP has only SAD & Shiv Sena
     
  19. A chauhan

    A chauhan "अहिंसा परमो धर्मः धर्म हिंसा तथैव च: l" Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    I also have the same hope, but who knows the ignorant Indian voters ?
     
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  20. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    200-215 BJP seats means 35 seats from AIADMK + SAD + SS + TRS + RJD +AGP+TDP= 300.
     
  21. aragorn

    aragorn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: If elections were to happen today, ......: India Today CVoter surv

    When i was in college first year, during vacations i went for one such survey, all the survey forms were filled by my friends at a chai ki tapri, they ticked options randomly and then they used to summarize the data and prepare charts like they are doing now..After my week long stint of inner workings of such surveys, i never believed any surveys.
     
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