VOCvangoens
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- Sep 21, 2015
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The armed forces of the great powers, in relation to the other great powers, behave in very much the same fashion as their nuclear arsenals; as a deterrent and as bargaining chips in the great geopolitical board game. An imbalance in the armed forces of the powers in a given region gives the power whom the imbalance favours greater diplomatic and strategic force. Take for example China's increasing brashness in the assertion of its power in its perceived strategic interests in the South China Sea. Thus China's navy has the confidence to confront Indo-Vietnamese oil exploration missions in the South China Sea; something they wouldn't have attempted against Western powers in the early twentieth century given their utter humiliation during the Opium Wars.
China's naval build-up has been paralleled by the accelerating modernisation of its air force; of which there are no better symbols than the J20 and J31 stealth aircraft. Given India's dithering and delay, which is compounding the problem of the upcoming retirement of its elderly squadrons of Mig21s, resulting in a net depletion of forces and adversely tipping the balance in the favour of China. The consequences would be detrimental to India's strategic, national, and economic interests. Thus, India's acquisition of stealth fighters must be viewed ultimately from a geopolitical strategic perspective in addition to the tactical perspective; the former being partly a function of the latter.
As an almost failed state, I don't regard Pakistan as much of a conventional threat, its main threat is from terrorism, its nuclear weapons and as a poodle of China. Therefore, I tend to view Pakistan's conventional threat as an extension of the Chinese threat.
I'm no expert but among the advantages of the F35 Lightning II would presumably include reliability-particularly with regard to the engines. I'm not sure if this is true or not but there is a view that Russian jets aren't designed to be pushed to their limits on a regular basis, as is the tendency of the IAF, and this is cited as the cause of many crashes of the SU30 MKI and other Russian jets. It may be true that Russian jets may look good on paper but when it comes to war, they don't come up to scratch. Also, there is the possibility of the integration of the METEOR with the F35 and it doesn't seem as though the Russians will have a ramjer air-to-air missile available anytime soon.
Besides the possible tactical advantages, if one looks at India's only interest as being its security viz China, then the F35 indeed appears to be beneficial. The capabilities gained from the mere possession of a capable Western stealth fighter alone should increase an imaginary deterrence coefficient. Although, one could argue that the performance characteristics of the F35 very much overlap with that of the HAL AMCA, they're not air superiority fighters, and the former could jeopardise the latter.
However, the symbolic value of the purchase is greater as it would signify India's membership of the neo-SEATO bloc of the USA, Australia, Japan and South Korea as only the USA's NATO and other long-standing allies, such as Japan, Israel and Australia, are getting the F35. I imagine that a strong bloc such as this would mollify Chinese geopolitical ambitions and maintain the balance of power in Asia.
But to become effectively part of such a bloc would by definition remove India's long-cherished non-aligned status and could very much subordinate it to Western policies in international affairs. For example, given the historical good relations India has enjoyed with Russia, the West could hypothetically use its influence to further isolate Russia by twisting India's arm. Moreover the West oppose Eurasian economic integration, something which would benefit India enormously in the long run, as it would substantially reduce their influence in the world.
It's also important not to forget that despite the values of freedom, democracy, liberalism and plurality that the United States shares with India, this wasn't enough to prevent the unholy alliance which it had with Pakistan (Phuckistan or Porkistan to some of our Indian friends). It has been only since the War On Terror, and the blowback from the decades in which the Pakistanis/Phuckistanis/Porkistanis have supported Islamic terrorists, which could be regarded as a stab in back for the USA, and the continuing emergence of India as a global economic force to be reckoned with, sublimely withstanding America's sanctions, that the Americans have finally realised that their interests ultimately lie in supporting India in distinction to the almost failed terrorist hellhole of Phuckistan.
All Russia wants and has ever wanted is money, money, money! The Russians want a deal which will maintain India as a customer and cash cow for decades to come; given sales for spares and upgrades.
Yes, the Russian have made a deal to sell SU35s to China and possibly to Pakistan. Russia has in the past sold more advanced kit to India than to China, the SU30 MKI is more advanced and capable than the MKK, and these could be viewed merely as a means of gaining bargaining power to force India to purchase the PAK FA/FGFA. I believe that the mooted deal with Pakistan would collapse once the PAK FA deal has been categorically completed.
There is a problem that Russia is cozying up to China given the economic woes that Western sanctions have wrought upon it. Resultant Chinese influence could be used to compromise India's military; i.e. delaying the sale or delivery of spares, etc. As about 75% of India's present fighter and ground attack aircraft are from Russia, it doesn't seem particularly wise to push Russia further towards China. India is and has been a much more reliable customer than China, always keen to reverse-engineer Russian kit.
Ultimately, the best thing for India is to develop its own advanced military-industrial complex so that it can design and manufacture the best stealth fighters on its own and thus be truly independent. Until then she has to make a fine calculation involving all known factors and variables, and known unknowns and unknown knowns, to come to a decision as to which aircraft will benefit her the most in the long-run.
China's naval build-up has been paralleled by the accelerating modernisation of its air force; of which there are no better symbols than the J20 and J31 stealth aircraft. Given India's dithering and delay, which is compounding the problem of the upcoming retirement of its elderly squadrons of Mig21s, resulting in a net depletion of forces and adversely tipping the balance in the favour of China. The consequences would be detrimental to India's strategic, national, and economic interests. Thus, India's acquisition of stealth fighters must be viewed ultimately from a geopolitical strategic perspective in addition to the tactical perspective; the former being partly a function of the latter.
As an almost failed state, I don't regard Pakistan as much of a conventional threat, its main threat is from terrorism, its nuclear weapons and as a poodle of China. Therefore, I tend to view Pakistan's conventional threat as an extension of the Chinese threat.
I'm no expert but among the advantages of the F35 Lightning II would presumably include reliability-particularly with regard to the engines. I'm not sure if this is true or not but there is a view that Russian jets aren't designed to be pushed to their limits on a regular basis, as is the tendency of the IAF, and this is cited as the cause of many crashes of the SU30 MKI and other Russian jets. It may be true that Russian jets may look good on paper but when it comes to war, they don't come up to scratch. Also, there is the possibility of the integration of the METEOR with the F35 and it doesn't seem as though the Russians will have a ramjer air-to-air missile available anytime soon.
Besides the possible tactical advantages, if one looks at India's only interest as being its security viz China, then the F35 indeed appears to be beneficial. The capabilities gained from the mere possession of a capable Western stealth fighter alone should increase an imaginary deterrence coefficient. Although, one could argue that the performance characteristics of the F35 very much overlap with that of the HAL AMCA, they're not air superiority fighters, and the former could jeopardise the latter.
However, the symbolic value of the purchase is greater as it would signify India's membership of the neo-SEATO bloc of the USA, Australia, Japan and South Korea as only the USA's NATO and other long-standing allies, such as Japan, Israel and Australia, are getting the F35. I imagine that a strong bloc such as this would mollify Chinese geopolitical ambitions and maintain the balance of power in Asia.
But to become effectively part of such a bloc would by definition remove India's long-cherished non-aligned status and could very much subordinate it to Western policies in international affairs. For example, given the historical good relations India has enjoyed with Russia, the West could hypothetically use its influence to further isolate Russia by twisting India's arm. Moreover the West oppose Eurasian economic integration, something which would benefit India enormously in the long run, as it would substantially reduce their influence in the world.
It's also important not to forget that despite the values of freedom, democracy, liberalism and plurality that the United States shares with India, this wasn't enough to prevent the unholy alliance which it had with Pakistan (Phuckistan or Porkistan to some of our Indian friends). It has been only since the War On Terror, and the blowback from the decades in which the Pakistanis/Phuckistanis/Porkistanis have supported Islamic terrorists, which could be regarded as a stab in back for the USA, and the continuing emergence of India as a global economic force to be reckoned with, sublimely withstanding America's sanctions, that the Americans have finally realised that their interests ultimately lie in supporting India in distinction to the almost failed terrorist hellhole of Phuckistan.
All Russia wants and has ever wanted is money, money, money! The Russians want a deal which will maintain India as a customer and cash cow for decades to come; given sales for spares and upgrades.
Yes, the Russian have made a deal to sell SU35s to China and possibly to Pakistan. Russia has in the past sold more advanced kit to India than to China, the SU30 MKI is more advanced and capable than the MKK, and these could be viewed merely as a means of gaining bargaining power to force India to purchase the PAK FA/FGFA. I believe that the mooted deal with Pakistan would collapse once the PAK FA deal has been categorically completed.
There is a problem that Russia is cozying up to China given the economic woes that Western sanctions have wrought upon it. Resultant Chinese influence could be used to compromise India's military; i.e. delaying the sale or delivery of spares, etc. As about 75% of India's present fighter and ground attack aircraft are from Russia, it doesn't seem particularly wise to push Russia further towards China. India is and has been a much more reliable customer than China, always keen to reverse-engineer Russian kit.
Ultimately, the best thing for India is to develop its own advanced military-industrial complex so that it can design and manufacture the best stealth fighters on its own and thus be truly independent. Until then she has to make a fine calculation involving all known factors and variables, and known unknowns and unknown knowns, to come to a decision as to which aircraft will benefit her the most in the long-run.
