I pose a question about Pakistan's troubles

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by Sailor, Apr 24, 2009.

  1. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    I don't know about anyone else but I think that the worry over rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea pales into insignificance compared to the Taliban taking over Pakistan and with it the nuclear weapons.

    My question is.
    If it got to a stage where it becomes obvious that the Pakistan army is going to be beaten by the Taliban, are there Moslems in senior positions in India that could be used as go betweens to convince Pakistan to accept the Indian army's help to put down the terrorists and accept an Indian army incursion into their country?
     
  2.  
  3. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    2,632
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Location:
    Earth
    The Pakistani Army will not be beaten in a direct confrontation with the Taliban. That you can be sure of. Of course, that matters only if there is direct confrontation, i.e. the Army decided to fight the Taliban. But I don't think the Taliban can take over Pakistan like they did Afghanistan.

    The Punjabis will not tolerate a Talibani transformation of their culture. Unless they use force and coercion in the Punjab, which they won't be permitted to do by the army, they have no hope of taking over the Pakistani Punjab. And until Punjab falls, Pakistan will remain a country in civil war, but will not be ruled by the Taliban.

    Oh, and to answer your question, if their army is beat, then there is no need for any go betweens, because then I think the IA will step in regardless of invitations to make sure India's borders are secure.
     
  4. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    Having difficulty correlating why the Taliban are winning ground everywhere and knocking on the door of Islamabad, but the Pakistan army isn't mobilized to fight them.
    Why is that?
    What has to happen before their army does something?

    Like to ask the question again about Moslems in senior posts in India. Are there such people?
     
  5. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    2,632
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Location:
    Earth
    They face multiple impediments. First is that they're not mentally prepared to fight the Taliban. The Pakistani army, although quite professional, also has been thoroughly indoctrinated for fighting an Islamic war against "Hindu" India. Their official motto is ""Iman, Taqwa, Jihad fi Sabilillah", which means "Faith, Piety, to strive in the path of Allah putting aside all your physical needs". The thought of fighting fellow Muslims, especially Pathans, who comprise 30% of the PA, is not very appealing.

    Secondly, the PA is not trained to fight a CI war. In the one campaign which they did undertake against the Taliban, Bajaur, they took six months to clear the rag tag militants from an area the size of New York City. They have lost more than 1600 soldiers so far, and troop morale is at an all time low. Last year, there were reports of troops surrendering en masse to Taliban fighters and joining them.

    Lastly, since the Pakistani leaders have always seen everything from religious perspective, Indian Muslim leaders may certainly be used as go betweens if there's a need.
     
  6. yang

    yang Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2009
    Messages:
    358
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    China
    But I don't think they are winnign everywhere,their attack style make them hard to control,like playing hide-and-seek with the gov.
    I think the Chiese Army is strong enough,but there are something nasty happened , the East Turkistan Terrorist attack common people,or try to create confusion in our Xingjiang province,and they are sure to have some relationship with the Taliban.
     
  7. yang

    yang Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2009
    Messages:
    358
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    China
    I think it is more a Social Problem than just a religious issue.The Taliban came into horrizon in Afh,it is a country so poor,and the contradiction between the people's demand and the short of aggregate supply lead the social problem,and the people are so un satisfied with the rescent condition,and it is easy for the radical religious to hold the people together,and do the terrorist incidents.
    But I think they can't success,today isn't a age of great revolution,and they can't support by the rest people.
     
  8. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    But this is the exact opposite to your earlier quote The Pakistani Army will not be beaten in a direct confrontation with the Taliban. That you can be sure of.

    Now you say they are joining the Taliban en masse.
    Either they have to fight them and beat them or Pakistan is taken over by the Taliban.
     
  9. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    But in all reports Yang they are succeeding. They are winning and have to be stopped. But who is going to stop them? It won't be the West. It has to be Indian soldiers and India has to seek approval soon to do it or there will be a disaster.
     
  10. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    2,632
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Location:
    Earth
    It won't. If the senior generals decide to take on the Taliban, then they will succeed. The PA used only 8000 troops in the Bajaur campaign. The strength of the PA is 5,50,000, which makes it the 7th or 8th largest army in the world. But if they're going to be half hearted in their attempts to fight the Taliban, without making a serious effort to convince their troops and the country that this is a war that has to be fought come what may, then they'll definitely find the going hard. For sure, the PA will have to train its troops in CI. The Indian army has had to do the same to fight the numerous insurgencies in India since independence. But it has managed to do that while defending the country's borders.

    http://www.dawn.com.pk/2007/09/01/top1.htm
     
  11. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    Does this then prove that the Taliban's radical policies are shared by the Pak army?
    If that is so what hope is there?
     
  12. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2009
    Messages:
    1,972
    Likes Received:
    70
    No. Not because there aren't enough muslims about whom you mentioned, but because the convincing will never get through Pakistani's iron wall of hatred.
    And by the time they do get convinced, it would be too late.

    Secondly, Pakistani Army cannot be beaten by the Taliban, unless it breaks from within.
    Pakistani army is a powerful under-utilized tool in the current scenario.
     
  13. EnlightenedMonk

    EnlightenedMonk Member of The Month JULY 2009 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2009
    Messages:
    3,831
    Likes Received:
    21
    Now, your question will have to be dealt with at many levels Sailor...

    First of all, the Pakistan Army, though untrained to stand up to such unconventional fighting tactics is a thoroughly professional unit and I have no doubts in my mind that with a little bit of will and training they will be able to stand up easily to the rag-tag militia of the Taliban. The West has given them a lot of aid recently and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future, but there are a variety of reasons why this is not happening.

    To try and understand those reasons you have to go back in History.

    Starting from 1947 when Pakistan was created, you will notice that it has been getting into trouble with all its neighbours including us Indians. First, it was the issue of Kashmir and as it went on, they kept finding various other reasons. They fought multiple wars with us over that issue. And, history bears testament to the fact that it was they who were the aggressors and not us (check any neutral source that you like to verify this)...

    Then, when Zia-ul-Haq came to power he noticed that the country wasn't exactly binding together due to the ethnic and cultural differences that were prevalent and he needed a common factor using which he could bind the country together. This he found easily under the banner of "Islam". He rallied the country under the banner of Islam in an attempt to unite all the different factions. And, very conveniently, at this time the Soviets also invaded Afghanistan, another friendly country to the West.

    The Americans seemed very interested in this and wanted to use this as a proxy war against the Soviets to try and deal a defeat (atleast a moral defeat if not a military defeat) to the Soviets. To do this, of course, they needed Pakistan's help without whom all of this would not be possible.

    So, they started funding the ISI (Pakistan's Intelligence Agency) which in turn would fund the rag-tag militia from all over the world which had assembled to "save a brother Muslim country from outside interference" or to "Claim back Muslim Land". A lot of the footsoldiers of this military were Pakistanis who were indoctrinated in their numerous Madarasas. At the same time, Zia undertook a total Islamization of Pakistan starting from the bottom up wherein every level of bureaucracy and society would be Islamised.

    These included the Army, Bureaucracy, General Society etc. He wanted Pakistan to be a completely Islamic society where everything they did would be in the name of Islam and for Allah. They wanted to be torch-bearers of the Islamic world at large. So, Zia went ahead with this plan. I mean, where did it hurt him ??? It pleased the Americans due to the anti-Soviet footsoldiers, it helped make Pakistan the centre of the Islamic world and it also helped unite the different factions in his own country.

    He noticed no immediate fallacy with this plan and he went ahead with it. Implementing the plan even included doctoring their educational system to portray some glaring lies and inaccuracies which were being fed to children from the school level just to achieve what Zia wanted to Achieve.

    Hence, with his entire policies, the Islamisation of Pakistan had truly begun from the early 80s.

    Now, this was all fine until the Soviets were defeated or were at the verge of defeat. After that, Pakistan needed to find a way to deal with all those youth who were fighting in Afghanistan so far, but after the defeat of the Soviets were essentially "unemployed". All these unemployed youth knew only about radical Islam and knew nothing else so they couldn't be employed in the conventional fields.'

    So, Pakistan began looking east. He found India as a ripe target and indoctrinated into these Pakistani youth that big bully India was usurping Islamic Land (Kashmir) and that as the torchbearers of the Islamic World, Pakistan had to stand upto India and deny them that land. If you see the figures that record terrorism and infiltration in the valley, you will notice that they suddenly spiked up or started around the time that the Soviets were defeated in Afghanistan. Before that there were no significant incidents of Terror or infiltration in the valley. They just started around the time when the Soviets were defeated.

    This is a clear indication that the youth who became free from Afghanistan were slowly being funneled into India. But, sending them into India was not enough for Pakistan. It wouldn't give "employment" to all their youth.

    So, what they did was they supported a group of these highly indoctrinated youth led by a chap called Mullah Omar and they called themselves the Taliban. The Taliban were secretly supported by the ISI and sent off to devour on Afghanistan because the ISI realised that having such a large numer of indoctrinated youth in the country was not good for stability and they had to be given some other work to concentrate on and some other land to use their "Sharia" on. So, they pointed them toward Afghanistan and gave them funds and asked them to go and "chew" on that.

    The rest, as they say, is History. The Taliban took over Afghanistan and spread anarchy all over that country with whatever laws they wanted to implement. It was basically like their puritanical society which they had formed on the basis of Islam. Everything thus was hunky dory during the 1990s as the Taliban kept themselves occupied with their activities in Afghanistan.

    But, then 9/11 happened and America noticed the threat that Al-Qaida and Taliban would pose to it, even though they were far away. So, they invaded Afghanistan and all the Taliban went running back to "mummy" (ISI / Pakistan).

    Now, the situation in Pakistan was also Islamically Charged, the result of the policies that were implemented by Zia ul Haq about 2 decades ago. They believed themselves to be descendants of Arabs, torchbearers of the Islamic World, the bearers of the only Islamic Bomb etc. So, the people in the tribal areas immediately supported the Taliban and made them their guests. They had a safe haven to go around in and they were not threatened. So, they made this their home.

    At the same time, the radicalisation of the Army and defence forces was also almost complete. By this time, the radical officers who were inducted during the time of Zia ul Haq had also crossed the Brigadier level and were slowly but surely approaching the General and Lt. General levels in the Armed forces. So, on the whole, they were well and truly on their way to becoming an "Islamic Army" or "Radicalised Army" whichever way you want to refer to it.

    This radicalised army refused and still to a large extent refuses to take on the Taliban because they consider them their "Muslim Brothers" who have been fighting for a just cause. Some from the Army even went ahead and joined the Taliban.

    Now, you have a situation in Pakistan where a lot of the Generals and Lt. Generals are still not radicalised since they were from before the time of Zia ul Haq. But, a lot of the officers from below them are from Zia's time and they have a radical streak to them. So, if the General orders something, the lower officers might not carry it out to the last word. So, essentially, the Generals are seeing the rug pulled out from right under their feet by the Islamic Fundamentalists in a literal sense...

    I think from here on, you can put one and one together and see where we are heading...

    Also, Pakistan was created on the funda of Hated for India. So, they see India as the mortal enemy and not one with whom they want to do deals. So, for them as far as India is concerned, its more than just "religion". It's a very personal thing.

    So, even if there are Muslims from the higher echelons of power who will try and negotiate with Pakistan and try and put some sense into their heads, I doubt it will work at such a late stage because there will not be ground support for India or any other non-Islamic power trying to go in there to clean up the mess.

    I've tried to be as true to my knowledge as possible while writing this explanation. If you guys see any discrepancies, please intimate to me and I'll be happy to correct them.
     
  14. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2009
    Messages:
    4,434
    Likes Received:
    1,719
    Location:
    Land of the GODS - "Dev Bhomi".
    Sailor,


    to begin with you have to understand PA is deeply involved in assisting the taliban, just like the other day daredevil said, they are as much a part of the problem, the front face to run the show for PA is the isi. if you reflect back right from 1948 till date they have always used these people the only difference has been that these terror groups have worked under different names but the people involved have been more or less the same and so has been the ideology. recently a brigadier ranked officer from the PA was offering namaz behind fazrullha a known hardcore talibani along with officials from the civil administration. there is a radio station which works under a few frequencies but till date there has been no effort to jam this transmission or blow up the so-called radio station and this “radio mullha” is used to pass sermons against the US and NATO. every now and then baitullha mehsud keeps holding press conference in the fata region but still the PA has no trace of him when whole lot of journalists are invited each time and they can easily trace him. there was a conversation of COAS general kayani appreciating lt gen pasha (head isi) for a remarkable job done by these terror groups in afghanistan and these people were termed as `assets. not so long back a call from the high offices of COAS general kayani was tapped telling taliban that the PA is going to attack them so in case there are any senior chaps of taliban then they should fled the scene before the attack happens.


    pakistan sees afghanistan as a place through which it can exert its influence in the CAR, an area rich in energy resources, which they see as potential clients of their port at gwadar and these countries are predominantly muslim so they feel that connection will help them in pressing upon their perception of koran on the locals in these countries and then these countries form a larger islamic union with them. PA does not see the US and NATO in astan for long as they are sure with the rising number of causalities of soldiers of the member nations of NATO the domestic pressure will be that much more to get their forces back home and this is in fact is being seen in most of europe where NATO has opened backdoor channels of negotiations with the taliban and the term of good taliban under the influence of PA erupted to the international forum. once US and NATO are out of astan, PA wants to see mullha omar be the head of the country just like it was between 1996-2001 who is a stooge of the PA so effectively then it is will be the PA that will control astan under the disguise of taliban.


    PA will never fight these very people who they have propped up to fight as jihadis in the name of islam in astan and kashmir, instead as has been well documented they are as usual fueling them with whole lot of resources through the “rouge” elements of the isi. the question comes to mind then why have there been so many causalities in the PA camp, first and foremost, are those stats independently documented and if not then there are valid reasons to not believe the figure given by the PA secondly how many officials above the rank of lt colonel have been killed in these ops, hardly any, the only ones who have been killed have been a victim of suicide bombing and no one for sure knows the reasons behind these type of bombings. these chaps for as low as 1,500 aussie dollars can be bought and they are ready to blow them selves up, so the reasons behind could be as trivial as professional rivalry. my attempt to give this background was so that you get a feel of what is being played around by the PA.


    with this background be certain the PA will never assault the taliban, there will be another false flag and the world will be made to believe that PA is the front line force in the WoT. india has back door channels active most of the time if not through the direct diplomatic channel then certainly through the track II channel, but be rest assured they will not listen to any of the things certainly not the PA on the assistance from the IA on their own land. not long back there was an earthquake in pakistan occupied kashmir (PoK) and india offered help to pakistan with choppers which pakistan needed badly but they rejected the offer at once. you can imagine the thought process there, they are ready to let innocents die than take help from us.


    now look at the larger picture, by now from my post it would have been certain that PA is the force behind the taliban. the agenda as i see is to have an islamic republic just like the one in iran where the highest spiritual leader will be appointed by the PA and to achieve this agenda the taliban has been used very tactfully. when such a thing happens, then PA is effectively able to get rid of the democracy for ever who they despise as US agents and have their style of dictatorship for ever but every time they do not have to agree with the outside world they can always duck behind the spiritual leader. by doing this they can for always do away with the bickering from the west, push around their own agenda more freely and have open cordial relations with the islamic states and with prc with out any US interference. now coming to their nukes, well recently our PM passed a statement where he said he was confident that their nukes are safe and as i have highlighted in another thread there are some valid reasons to believe their statement and also that he has been convinced on this by the US, in fact all the hoopla around their nukes has fizzled since the democratic government took to power which in effect would mean that at the moment US has significant control on those nukes, to what extent cant be said.
     
  15. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    This nuke factor is mystifying to me too. The nukes can only be guarded by the Pak army.
    Now we have a situation where......................
    a] Pak army supports the Taliban and their ultimate government.
    and
    b] The Pak army is guarding the nukes so that the Taliban can't get at them.

    Isn't that just a 'now' situation? I mean if the Islamic radicals are running the parliament like they are in Iran, how long is it before they order the army to stand aside?
     
  16. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2009
    Messages:
    1,972
    Likes Received:
    70
    The Army doesn't have to listen to them.
     
  17. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    If the Taliban became the legitimate government with a President the army would have to listen to them like Iran or anywhere. And they would.

    By the way well done on those posts Enlightened One and Thakur
     
  18. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2009
    Messages:
    4,434
    Likes Received:
    1,719
    Location:
    Land of the GODS - "Dev Bhomi".
    not quite mate, if you observe closely you will realise that no one other than the PA calls the shots in pakistan and they are the real show runners in that country. at the moment the person running the show for them is their PM yusuf raza gilani, and the PA has a strangle hold on that country. be rest assured there will be some sort of an islamic revolution in another few years and this can happen in two ways. first is to let taliban go on rampage like the way they are doing now but with this there is some level of resentment at international level who are talking about safe havens for terror network so i doubt this will be allowed to happen for long, the other way will be to dismiss the elected government but before this happens they will create a situation where islamic revolution becomes a matter of heated debate in that country and by using the media, prominent speakers a perception will be created that the only way to save that country is by way of an islamic revolution and the moment there is mass support there will be coup and then the army will appoint an islamic cleric who will be spiritual leader of the country acceptable to most corners of the country who then will be the public face of the PA both for its domestic audience and also the international audience. the clerics who head will be directly appointed by the army and they will take directives from the army and there will be no way the command of nuke weapons will be handed over to them. no one can be more powerful in pakistan that PA no matter what happens and as it is the PA is known as the army of allah.
     
  19. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    Well written again.
    The only downside of all this politicking and Taliban rampaging is the plight of the women. How many will be flogged, maimed and murdered until sanity returns.
    Must be hell on Earth for womenfolk. It is hard to believe that a country's men can go to war with their women. As I said the other day........Is this God's Earth or planet X?
     
  20. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2009
    Messages:
    11,613
    Likes Received:
    5,669
    Sailor, it is not just women folk who will be mistreated. Their kind of justice is the most barbaric way of punishment to the offender. I have some videos, where a guy was stoned to death with big stones and guy's throat was slithered with a knife just like they do for a goat or some animal. When you watch this gore it will make you puke, its very disgusting.

    I don't know about God on earth but there are men who can certainly stop it but they don't want to, to meet their strategic ends. Sad but true.
     
  21. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2009
    Messages:
    24,269
    Likes Received:
    11,228
    Location:
    BANGalore
    NO WAY. First Pakistan will not ask and second, India will not get involved in the mess over there. But one thing is for sure that we will fortify our borders and also assist/involve ourselves in taking out the nukes before it falls in the hands of the Taliban.
     

Share This Page