Hypothetical Nuclear Explosions

[Alpha1]

San Francisco

An Ohio-class nuclear missile submarine collides with a
freighter in the fog, off the coast of San Francisco, half-way between Alcatraz Island and Fisherman's Wharf. One of the sub's missiles accidentally
detonates in the collision.All 8 MIRVed warheads on the
missile detonate in an explosion that yields 800 kilotons. The
fissionable material contained in the other thermonuclear
warheads on board contributes another megaton, bringing the
overall yield to 1.8 megatons. The heavy fog that contributed to the collision greatly attenuates the thermal pulse. The resulting explosion leaves behind not only
the usual radioactive by-products, but also a large amount of unused fissionable
material.A population density of 15,000
people per square mile, uniformly
distributed. Over 90% of the people are inside. The shock
wave will spread out uniformly.
Assumptions
It is very unlikely that an accident like the one contemplated could actually happen. Great care is taken in the designing of these
weapons systems specifically to prevent an accident from taking place. However, of all nations nuclear forces, the submarines are the most autonomous (have the fewest safety lockouts).

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco Exam: 4 seconds after detonation

Blast Wave
The shock wave will have an overpressure of 20 psi at a distance of 1.4 miles from the
site of the accident. Even the most heavily reinforced structures will be destroyed
inside this circle, including Fisherman's Wharf, buildings on
Alcatraz Island and a good portion of the north facing waterfront. Any ships inside this ring will be sunk. Roughly one
minute later a wave over 50 feet high, created by the blast, will hitthe shore.
Casualties
Only a few square miles of the 20psi ring are over land. All people inside this ring, about 45,000,
are killed by the thermal pulse (attenuated by the fog, but still over 160 calories per square
centimeter) or the shock wave.
Fireball
The fireball will have a maximum radius of 2,695 feet. However, it is completely over water, and does no damage to the nearby
structures.

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco 9 seconds after detonation

Blast Wave
An overpressure of at least 10 psi extends out for 2.7 miles. Most
concrete and steel reinforced structures will be destroyed or
severely damaged. All non-reinforced structures will be
leveled. Some buildings will be
shielded by the hilly terrain of the city and suffer reduced damage. However, even these structures
will likely have their interiors destroyed. The thermal pulse will
be attenuated by the fog to less than 2 calories per square
centimeter.
Casualties
Most people inside buildings will be killed by flying debris or die as the buildings collapse. Those in
the direct line of sight will be blinded by the flash but will receive no other injury from the much attenuated thermal pulse. Fatalities are estimated at 120,000 with another 30,000 injured but alive.

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco 14
seconds after detonation

Blast Wave
The shock wave will have moved out 1.2 miles in the 5 seconds as the ring of destruction is extended out to 3.5 miles. The overpressure at the edge of the ring, which covers about 16 square miles, will be 5 psi. Reinforced structures will be
heavily damaged as well as unreinforced residential. Again,
some structures will be shielded by the city's hills and thus receive reduced damage. Significant
structures affected in this ring include the Golden Gate and Bay
Bridges, the Civic Center and the
Presidio. It is very likely that both bridges will be severely damaged
or destroyed by the blast.
Casualties
This ring contains roughly 90,000 people. Less than one half (25,000) of the indoor population will be killed inside buildings, mainly by flying debris. Many of the rest (40,000) will
receive injuries to varying degrees. Those outside at this
range escape serious direct injury from the blast overpressure but may be injured
or killed by flying objects. The thermal pulse has been attenuated to well below 1 calorie per square centimeter,
posing the danger of temporary flashblindness to those looking in the direction of the blast, but nothing more.
Thermal Effects
This region contains the most severe fire hazard, since fire
ignition and spread are more likely in partly damaged buildings than in completely flattened
areas. Perhaps 5% of the building would be initially ignited, with fire spread to
adjoining buildings highly likely. Fires will continue to spread for
at least 24 hours, ultimately destroying about half the buildings.

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco 24 seconds after detonation

Blast Wave
This band extends out to a 5.8 mile radius and has an overpressure at the outside edge of 2 psi. Reinforced structures
will receive varying amounts of damage, with those buildings at the edge being almost completely
undamaged. Wood and brick buildings will receive moderate
amounts of initial damage, with the damage becoming less significant at the outside edge of the ring. Many buildings shielded by the hills will receive little or no damage.
Casualties
An estimated 35,000 people will be fatalities in this ring, with another 75,000 injured to varying degrees. No deaths or
injuries are due directly to the blast overpressure. At this distance the fog attenuated thermal pulse doesn't even cause flashblindness.
Thermal Effects
Usually at this distance from ground zero, additional damage is expected from unchecked fires
started by the thermal pulse. However, the heavy fog will attenuate the thermal pulse so rapidly that the only areas that
are likely to receive enough energy to start exposed materials burning would have those fires put out by the blast a few seconds later. Additionally, the
moisture from the fog will further hamper any fires from spreading.

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco 38
seconds after detonation

Blast Wave
This band extends out for almost 9 miles and has an overpressure
of 1 psi at its outside edge. At the inner edge there will be light to moderate amounts of damage to unreinforced buildings of brick
and wood. Reinforced structures and commercial buildings will receive light damage at most.
This band extends out to cover the rest of San Francisco as well
as Sausalito and parts of Oakland.
Casualties
Though this ring covers an additional 140 square miles, much of this area is over water. The affected population in this ring is estimated to be 500,000. There will be almost no fatalities in this ring and roughly 30,000 injuries.

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco Radioactive Fallout
The initial radiation in the form of gamma rays and neutrons can
be a major source of fatalities in the first few miles from a nuclear blast of 1.8 megatons. Several
factors in this scenario reduce
the impact that initial radiation has on the overall number of
fatalities. With the blast centered more than a mile off shore much of the lethal radiation zone is
located over water where there are few people. Additionally, the heavy fog will attenuate the radiation faster than dry air, and the hills will shield many people. Since most people are inside,
they will receive further shielding
by buildings - typically between 10% and 40%. Because of the dirty nature of this blast, fallout will be an especially important effect to
consider. This blast will likely deposit measurable, if not
harmful, amounts of radioactive debris across much of the U.S., in the form of delayed fallout over
the next several months. Even more important are the localized effects that the early fallout,
defined as all the fallout occurring in the first 24 hours, will have on the survivors, rescue workers and those not directly
affected by the blast but living in the vicinity of San Francisco.
In a surface blast, fallout consists of neutron activated weapon debris, fission products, unused fission material, activated sea water and sea floor material. Surface blasts generally produce more early fallout since the average size of the fallout particles are larger and thus fall
back to earth faster. Over 300 species of radioactive materials
are produced in a blast. Each has its own half life and some
interact in particular ways with the human body. If we assume that there is little
wind, the fallout will settle back to earth in a circular pattern
centered around ground zero. For a 1.8 megaton blast where roughly one megaton of yield comes from fission, we can expect the following total dose levels. After the first 24 hours, when
most of the early fallout has settled, the radiation level
decreases roughly in proportion to elapsed time. Reducing
exposure by leaving the area or remaining in a fallout shelter will greatly reduce the radiation effects on people Significant levels of radiation
(greater than 200 rads will cause radiation sickness) will extend
out much farther than other effects such as blast overpressure. Radioactive contamination will hamper rescue, cleanup and recovery
efforts as most of the city will have dangerously high levels of radiation for many weeks tocome.
The radiation given off by fallout is dangerous because of the way it interacts with the body's cells.
There are three basic types of radiation given off by radioactive
fallout: gamma, beta and alpha. The gamma rays are high energy photons that penetrate deeply
into tissue and cause damage by scattering off of, and knocking
loose, electrons that are a part of the body's cells. The beta rays (electrons) only penetrate shallowly but can cause severe
burns. The alpha rays (helium nuclei) are the most massive and
do the most damage when they interact with the body's cells,
ionizing elements they contact. Neutrons interact with the nuclei to lock out protons that then
ionize other elements.
In addition to the direct effect that radiation has, some
elements can be absorbed into the body causing greater internal damage to specific organs.
Strontium 90 (created in the fission process) is similar in chemical composition to calcium and lodges in the bones, especially in children. Iodine 131
is absorbed by the thyroid gland and can result in cancer of the
thyroid or hypothyroidism.
Cesium 137 is taken into the body much like potassium and is
distributed fairly evenly.
Fallout Effects
Dose-rem
Effects
5-20
Possible late effects; possible
chromosomal damage.
20-100
Temporary reduction in white
blood cells.
100-200
Mild radiation sickness within a
few hours: vomiting, diarrhea,
fatigue; reduction in resistance
to infection.
200-300
Serious radiation sickness effects
as in 100-200 rem and hemorrhage; exposure is a Lethal
Dose to 10-35% of the
population after 30 days (LD 10-35/30).
300-400
Serious radiation sickness; also
marrow and intestine
destruction; LD 50-70/30.
400-1000
Acute illness, early death; LD 60-95/30.
1000-5000
Acute illness, early death in days;
LD 100/10.

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco Recovery
In this simulated accident we have assumed that there is
nothing to prevent state and federal resources from
concentrating on the devastated area. Though the rescue work would be hampered by radioactivity, much in the way of immediate aid would be available that would not be if this were a
full scale nuclear attack.
Access
Both the Bay and Golden Gate
Bridges would likely be damaged and unusable in any rescue effort. At the least there would be
debris and damaged vehicles that would have to be cleared
before any aid could be transported. Access to San Francisco would be limited to the highways that run up the peninsula. It is likely that these
highways would be the only way into or out of the city. San
Francisco International Airport is located well outside the 1 psi ring and is shielded by hills. Aid
and equipment could likely be flown into the airport after the
initially high radiation levels from early fallout had subsided.
Medical Effects
With 175,000 people injured to varying degrees the medical
system will be unable to give care to all but the most severely
injured. There will be relatively few burn victims from the
thermal pulse, but still more than the immediate area is capable of caring for at once. More importantly, the area covered by total dose of 300 rads of fallout
over the first 18 hours is quite large (almost 2000 square miles).
People who don't evacuate the area or seek shelter from the
radiation in the early fallout will likely come down with radiation sickness. For the long term, the
incidence of various forms of cancer will increase for the
general population up to 50 miles distant from the blast.
Utilities
Most of San Francisco will be without utilities at least out to
the 2 psi ring. However, most
people will need to evacuate the area, at least temporarily, out
much farther than the edge of the 1 psi ring. Restoration of
utilities will happen as they are required for rescue and
evacuation.
Rescue and Recovery
Hundreds of thousands of people
will likely have to evacuate; some
permanently, others for weeks or months. California's disaster
planning for major earthquakes may help in the effort to find
shelter and food for all those evacuating. It is unlikely that San
Francisco will be habitable for
many years to come.
Decontamination and cleanup after the initially high radiation
levels have subsided will take years, if even attempted - the
cost will be incredibly high.
Distance from
ground zero (mi.)
Population
Fatalities
Injuries
Uninjured
.
0 - 1.4
45,000
45,000
0
0
1.4 - 2.7
150,000
120,000
30,000
0
2.7 - 3.5
90,000
25,000
40,000
25,000
3.5 - 5.8
225,000
35,000
75,000
115,000
5.8 - 9.0
500,000
0
30,000
470,000
Totals
1,010,000
225,000
175,000
610,000

 

[Alpha1]

San Francisco
Summary
This simulation of a nuclear accident contains many
assumptions, and there is a high degree of uncertainty in the
prediction of specific effects and the resulting casualty figures.Great care is taken in the designing of these weapons systems specifically to prevent an accident from taking place.
However, of all the nations's nuclear forces, the submarines are the most autonomous (havethe fewest safety lockouts).
However, some points stand out.
1. 105 square miles of property destruction (2 psi)
2. 224,000 killed, 175,000 injured
3. Dangerous radiation levels
from fallout extend for 50 miles from blast site
4. Coordinated national rescue and recovery effort necessary

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit

The detonation point selected is the intersection of I-75 and I-94, approximately at the Civic Center and about 3 miles from the Detroit-Windsor tunnel entrance.
The nuclear weapon has a yield of (1 megaton) and is a surface burst.
Assumptions
(1.) There is no warning. The population has not been evacuated nor sought shelter. Both measures could reduce casualties.
(2.) The detonation takes place at night when most peopleare at their residences. This corresponds to the available census data.
(3.) There is clear weather, with visibility of 10 miles.
(4.) No other cities are attacked, an assumption that allows for analyzing the extent of outside help that would be
required, if it were available.

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit : 3.5 seconds after detonation
Blast Wave -

Out to a distance of 0.6 miles from the center there will be
nothing recognizable remaining, with the exception of some
massive concrete bridge abutments and building foundations. *At 0.6 miles some
heavily damaged highway bridge sections remain, but little else
*until 1.3 miles, where a few very
strongly constructed buildings will survive. *A distance of 1.7
miles (12 psi ring) is the closest range where any significant
structures will remain standing.
Casualties
Of the people in this area during the night, there are virtually no
survivors. Most deaths will occur from collapsing buildings.
Although many fires will be started, only a small percentage
of the buildings are likely to continue to burn after the blast
wave passes.
Fireball
The fireball will have a radius of (0.4 miles) However, the blast
effects will greatly outweigh any
direct thermal effects due to the fireball.

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit : 8.0 seconds after detonation
Blast Wave

In the band between the 1.7 and 2.7 mile (5 psi) circles, typical
multistory buildings will have the walls completely blown out, but increasingly at greater distances the skeletal structure will remain standing. Individual residences in this region will be totally destroyed. Heavy industrial plants will be destroyed in the inner
part of the ring, but some industry will remain functional
towards the outer edge. Debris will clutter the streets from a depth of tens of feet in industrial
areas to several inches in more residential areas.
Casualties:
In this ring about half of the population will suffer fatalities, with most of the remaining
being injured. Most deaths will occur from collapsing buildings.
Although many fires will be started, only a small percentage
are likely to continue to burn after the blast wave passes. The initial radiation would be lethal out to (1.7 miles), but be
insignificant in its prompt effects (50 rems) at (2.0 miles.)

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit : 16.5 seconds after detonation
Blast Wave

In the band from 2.7 to 4.7 miles (2 psi), large buildings will have lost their windows. Residential
buildings will be totally destroyed
or severely damaged. There will still be substantial debris in the streets, but a significant number
of vehicles will remain operable.
In this zone, damage to heavy industrial plants will be severe.
Casualties
In this ring only 5% of the population will be killed, but nearly half will be injured. There
would be additional deaths from thermal radiation in this band.
Many of these would die because adequate medical treatment
would not be available.
Thermal Effects
This region contains the most severe fire hazard, since fire
ignition and spread are more likely in partly damaged
buildings. Fires will continue to spread for 24 hours at least,
ultimately destroying about half the buildings.

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit : 29 seconds after detonation
Blast Wave

In the outermost band (4.7 miles,1 psi) there would be only light
damage tocommercial structures and moderate damage to
residences.
Casualties
Casualties are estimated at 25%injured and only a small number killed. Under the range of
conditions, there will be an additional 3,000 to 75,000 burn injuries requiring specialized medical care.
Thermal Effects
Fire ignitions should be comparatively rare (limited to kindling materials such as
newspaper or dry leaves) and easily controlled by the survivors.

 

[Alpha1]

Self deleted...

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit Radiation & Fallout

Fallout
Fallout from the stem starts building after about 10 minutes.
This is the prime threat to rescue crews. The affected area would have a radius of about 6.5 miles with a hot spot a distance downwind that depends on the
wind velocity. If there is a 15-mph wind from the southwest,
an area of about 1 square mile-the solid ellipse shown-would
cause an average exposure of 300 rems in the first hour. The
larger toned ellipse shows an area of 150 rems in the first hour.
Because of the dirty nature of this blast, fallout will be an
especially important effect to consider. This blast will likely deposit measurable, if not harmful, amounts of radioactive debris across much of the U.S., in the form of delayed fallout over
the next several months. Even more important are the localized effects that the early fallout,
defined as all the fallout occurring in the first 24 hours, will have on the survivors, rescue workers and those not directly
affected by the blast but living in the vicinity of Detroit.
Surface blasts generally produce more early fallout since the average size of the fallout particles are larger and thus fall back to earth faster. Over 300 species of radioactive materials are produced in a blast. Each has its own half life and some interact in particular ways with the human body.
After the first 24hours, when most of the early fallout has
settled, the radiation level decreases roughly in proportion
to elapsed time. Reducing exposure by leaving the area or
remaining in a fallout shelter will greatly reduce the radiation
effects on people
Significant levels of radiation (greater than 200 rads will cause radiation sickness) will extend
out much farther than other effects such as blast overpressure. Radioactive contamination will hamper rescue, cleanup and recovery
efforts as most of the city will have dangerously high levels of radiation for many weeks to come.
The radiation given off by fallout is dangerous because of the way it interacts with the body's cells.
There are three basic types of radiation given off by radioactive
fallout: gamma, beta and alpha.
*The gamma rays are high energy
photons that penetrate deeply
into tissue and cause damage by
scattering off of, and knocking
loose, electrons that are a part of the body's cells.
*The beta rays
(electrons) only penetrate
shallowly but can cause severe burns. *The alpha rays (heliumnuclei) are the most massive and
do the most damage when they interact with the body's cells,
ionizing elements they contact.
Neutrons interact with the nuclei to lock out protons that then
ionize other elements.
In addition to the direct effect that radiation has, some
elements can be absorbed into the body causing greater internal damage to specific organs.
Strontium 90 (created in the fission process) is similar in chemical composition to
calcium and lodges in the bones,especially in children. Iodine 131
is absorbed by the thyroid gland and can result in cancer of the
thyroid or hypothyroidism.
Cesium 137 is taken into the body much like potassium and is
distributed fairly evenly.
Fallout Effects
Dose-rem:
Effects:
5-20
Possible late effects; possible chromosomal damage.
20-100
Temporary reduction in white blood cells.
100-200
Mild radiation sickness within a
few hours: vomiting, diarrhea,fatigue; reduction in resistance to infection.
200-300
Serious radiation sickness effects
as in 100-200 rem and hemorrhage; exposure is a Lethal
Dose to 10-35% of the
population after 30 days (LD10-35/30).
300-400
Serious radiation sickness; also marrow and intestine destruction; LD 50-70/30.
400-1000
Acute illness, early death; LD60-95/30.
1000-5000
Acute illness, early death in days;
LD 100/10.

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit : Long-Term
Fallout Pattern Radioactive Fallout

The extent and location of radioactive fall-out will depend
on weather conditions, especially
the speed and direction of the wind. It should not be forgotten that fallout patterns are idealized
- such neat ellipses would occur in reality only with an absolutely constant wind and no rain. The
onset of fallout would depend on wind velocity and distance from the explosion and it would be most dangerous during the first few days. In the case of an attack on a single city (using a surface burst, as our example does), people living downwind would probably evacuate .Those who neither evacuated
nor found adequate fallout shelters would be subjected to dangerous levels of radiation: people in the inner contour
would receive a fatal dose within the first week; people in the next contour out would contract very
severe radiation sickness if they
stayed indoors and would probably receive a fatal dose if
they spent much time outdoors; people in the next contour out
would contract generally nonfatal
radiation sickness, with increased hazards of deaths
from other diseases. People in the outer contour (90 roentgens
in the first week) would suffer few visible effects, but their life expectancy would drop as a
result of an increased risk of eventual cancer.

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit : Recovery
Radioactive Fallout
This simulated attack considers Detroit to be the only damaged
area in the United States, that there is no other threat that would prevent survivors and those in surrounding areas from giving all possible aid, and that
Federal and State governments will actively organize outside assistance.
Medical Effects
The near half-million injured presents a medical task of
incredible magnitude. The Detroitarea hospitals contain about 18,000 beds. Nearly 55% of these beds lie within the (5-psi ring), and would be destroyed.
Another 15% would be severely damaged, leaving 5,000 beds
usable. They would be incapable of providing significant medical care for the tens of thousands of
burn victims. The ENTIRE United States only has approximately 3,000 beds in specialized burn centers.
Utilities
The total loss of all utilities (electricity, gas, water, and
sewage) in areas where there has been significant physical
damage to the basic structure of buildings is inevitable. These
services can slowly be restored within 1 to 2 weeks with outside
assistance.
Rescue and Recovery
Rescue and recovery operations will depend on the
reestablishment of
transportation. The main airport, located in the middle of the 2 to 5 psi ring will have essentially all of its facilities destroyed.
Interstate highways and broad urban streets without significant structures nearby will survive as
far in as the 12 psi ring and can be quickly restored to use on clearing away minor amounts of
debris. However, the majority of urban streets will be cluttered with varying quantities of debris,
starting with tree limbs and other minor obstacles at (1 psi,)
and increasing in density up to the 12 psi ring, where all
buildings, trees, and cars will be smashed and quite uniformly
redistributed over the area. It could take weeks or months to
remove the debris and restore road transportation in the area. Clean-up efforts could not begin until (2-3) weeks after the attack. The main train station will also suffer major damage but will be usable.
Fallout Effects
The extent and location of radioactive fallout will depend on
weather conditions, especially the speed and direction of the
wind. It would be most dangerous during the first few
days after the explosion. The fallout could cover the farming areas in Canada if the wind is
from the southwest, or over Cleveland and Pittsburgh, if the wind is from the northwest. Some areas would remain
dangerously radioactive and would have to be cleaned up at tremendous cost or be abandoned for many years to come.
It is likely that many tens of thousands of people would become homeless. Creation of
temporary shelter would be among the first recovery tasks
after all the trapped and injured had been found and cared for.
True recovery for Detroit would take many years.
This simulated attack considers Detroit to be the only damaged
area in the United States, that there is no other threat that would prevent survivors and those in surrounding areas from giving all possible aid, and that
Federal and State governments will actively organize outside assistance.

 

[Alpha1]

Detroit:Summary
While this simulation of a 1megaton surface burst contains
many assumptions, and the uncertainty associated with any
of the estimates is large, a number of points stand out:
(1.) 70 squaremiles of property destruction ( 2 psi.),
(2.) 250,000 killed, 500,000 injured,
(3.) Additional damage from post blast fires,
(4.) Coordinated national rescue and recovery effort necessary.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

It would take a shorter time for Detroit to rise from the ashes of a nuclear strike than it would from the destruction wrought by years of control by the Democratic Party.