How to fudge data - China style

[Ray]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

It is actually Boom, Doom, Gloom!

The statistics show its rise and fall.

But China will bounce back is what the Chinese feel!

One has to wait and see.

 

[Daredevil]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

only if u care to start a thread called 'current economy of india (no 'doom' word needed coz truth iteslf carries weight)' in this forum then u can put at least 10 articles per day to show how shinning india is........

We are as much critical with Indian Economy as we will be with any other economy that is falsified.

China has a long standing history of falsifying economic data. It is not for no reason that data coming out from China is being referred as 'Beijing Bean Counter Economics'.

 

[no smoking]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

It is actually Boom, Doom, Gloom!

The statistics show its rise and fall.

But China will bounce back is what the Chinese feel!

One has to wait and see.

I understand your feeling!
After years been told that india is destined to surpass China at least in growth, finally the day is coming-2012 or 2013 and China is slowing down. But, you suddentlly find that india is slowing down further. What can be worse.
Everyone need an acceptable explaination. What can be better than this one-- China fake its data.
No matter it is false or true, everybody need it.
Ok, let's hold hand together and pray.

 

[panduranghari]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

I understand your feeling!
After years been told that india is destined to surpass China at least in growth, finally the day is coming-2012 or 2013 and China is slowing down. But, you suddentlly find that india is slowing down further. What can be worse.
Everyone need an acceptable explaination. What can be better than this one-- China fake its data.
No matter it is false or true, everybody need it.
Ok, let's hold hand together and pray.

Sir,

China is actually fudging the data.

This is from NY Times

As the Chinese economy continues to sputter, prominent corporate executives in China and Western economists say there is evidence that local and provincial officials are falsifying economic statistics to disguise the true depth of the troubles.
Record-setting mountains of excess coal have accumulated at the country's biggest storage areas because power plants are burning less coal in the face of tumbling electricity demand. But local and provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown, power sector executives said.
Electricity production and consumption have been considered a telltale sign of a wide variety of economic activity. They are widely viewed by foreign investors and even some Chinese officials as the gold standard for measuring what is really happening in the country's economy, because the gathering and reporting of data in China is not considered as reliable as it is in many countries.
Indeed, officials in some cities and provinces are also overstating economic output, corporate revenue, corporate profits and tax receipts, the corporate executives and economists said. The officials do so by urging businesses to keep separate sets of books, showing improving business results and tax payments that do not exist.
The executives and economists roughly estimated that the effect of the inaccurate statistics was to falsely inflate a variety of economic indicators by 1 or 2 percentage points. That may be enough to make very bad economic news look merely bad. The executives and economists requested anonymity for fear of jeopardizing their relationship with the Chinese authorities, on whom they depend for data and business deals.

 

[nimo_cn]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

Sir,

China is actually fudging the data.

This is from NY Times

But local and provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown, power sector executives said.

Loopholes in NYTimes' masterpiece you may not know, electricity distribution in China is dorminated by a handful state-owned companies like State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid. Unlike normal state-owned companies, they are under the direct control of Chinese central government and are called "央企" in China to be distinguished from other state-owned companies, hence they can't be forced by local governments to hide real data from Beijing.

 

[arkem8]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

China to 'maintain 8% growth for over 20 years' - People's Daily Online

Yes! you read that right!! 20 MORE YEARS----the Chini's will grow at 8%!!!!

You have to be complete retard to believe this, but then again this is an authoritarian state and there is no choice...

 

[panduranghari]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

Loopholes in NYTimes' masterpiece you may not know, electricity distribution in China is dorminated by a handful state-owned companies like State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid. Unlike normal state-owned companies, they are under the direct control of Chinese central government and are called "央企" in China to be distinguished from other state-owned companies, hence they can't be forced by local governments to hide real data from Beijing.

On the contrary the local CCP official has to show all is well or else he will be Boxilaied. Sometime the propaganda tool works other way.

 

[Zero_Wing]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

lair lair pants on fire

 

[nimo_cn]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

On the contrary the local CCP official has to show all is well or else he will be Boxilaied. Sometime the propaganda tool works other way.

Boxilai was trying to show everything was well when he was taken down, so your odd theory doesn't stand.

But that is not the point I was making, I was telling you that local CPC officials have little influence over Chinese powerful state-owned companies, hence can't force them to hide real data from Beijing. If you want to refute anything, try that.

 

[Ray]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

I understand your feeling!
After years been told that india is destined to surpass China at least in growth, finally the day is coming-2012 or 2013 and China is slowing down. But, you suddentlly find that india is slowing down further. What can be worse.
Everyone need an acceptable explaination. What can be better than this one-- China fake its data.
No matter it is false or true, everybody need it.
Ok, let's hold hand together and pray.

You understand my feelings?

You are psychic?

You have ESP?

Pray?

Since when have Communists understood prayers?

OK, so China fakes figures.

Everyone requires false data?

OK China is a superpower - false data!

Glad India does not fake their data or else the Govt would be thrown out!

Great difference and every so reassuring!

 

[Ray]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

Loopholes in NYTimes' masterpiece you may not know, electricity distribution in China is dorminated by a handful state-owned companies like State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid. Unlike normal state-owned companies, they are under the direct control of Chinese central government and are called "央企" in China to be distinguished from other state-owned companies, hence they can't be forced by local governments to hide real data from Beijing.

So who is faking the data?

Or is the data not faked?

What are the other loopholes?

 

[Ray]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

Before 1994 electricity supply was managed by electric power bureaus of the provincial governments. Now utilities are managed by corporations outside of the government administration structure.

To end the State Power Corporation's (SPC) monopoly of the power industry, China's State Council dismantled the corporation in December 2002 and set up 11 smaller companies. SPC had owned 46% of the country's electrical generation assets and 90% of the electrical supply assets. The smaller companies include two electric power grid operators, five electric power generation companies and four relevant business companies. Each of the five electric power generation companies owns less than 20% (32 GW of electricity generation capacity) of China's market share for electric power generation. Ongoing reforms aim to separate power plants from power-supply networks, privatize a significant amount of state-owned property, encourage competition, and revamp pricing mechanisms.[4]

It is expected that the municipal electric power companies will be divided into electric power generating and electric power supply companies. A policy of competition between the different generators will be implemented in the next years..........

The five majors, and their listed subsidiaries: The five majors are all SOEs directly administered by SASAC.[9] Their listed subsidiaries are substantially independent, hence counted as IPPs, and are major power providers in their own right. Typically each of the big 5 has about 10% of national installed capacity, and their listed subsidiary an extra 4 or 5% on top of that.
China Datang Corporation
parent of Datang International Power Generation Company (SEHK: 991; SSE: 601991)
China Guodian Corporation ("Guodian")
parent of GD Power Development Company (SSE: 600795),
China Huadian Group
parent of Huadian Power International Co., Ltd.
China Huaneng Group
parent of Huaneng Power International (NYSE:HNP)
China Power Investment Corporation ("CPI")
parent of China Power International Development Limited ("CPID", 2380.HK)
Additionally two other SOEs also have listed IPP subsidiaries:
the coalmine owning Shenhua Group
parent of China Shenhua Energy Company (SEHK: 1088, SSE: 601088)
China Resources Group ("Huarun")
parent of China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited ("CRP", SEHK: 836)
Secondary companies:
Shenzhen Energy Co., Ltd.
Guangdong Yuedian Group Co., Ltd.
Anhui Province Energy Group Co., Ltd.
Hebei Jiantou Energy Investment Co., Ltd.
Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co., Ltd.
Shandong Luneng Taishan Cable Co., Ltd.
Guangzhou Development Industry (Holdings) Co., Ltd.
Chongqing Jiulong Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co., Ltd.
Shenergy Company (SSE: 600642), Shanghai.
Shenergy Group, Shanghai.
Sichuan Chuantou Energy Stock Co., Ltd.
Naitou Securities Co., Ltd.
Panjiang Coal and Electric Power Group
Hunan Huayin Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Shanxi Top Energy Co., Ltd.
Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Co., Ltd.
SDIC Huajing Power Holdings Co., Ltd.[10][11]
Sichuan MinJiang Hydropower Co., Ltd.
Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Guangxi Guidong Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Xichang Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Mingxing Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Guangan Aaa Public Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Leshan Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Fujian MingDong Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co., Ltd.
Nuclear and hydro:
China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group
China Yangtze Power (listed)
Sinohydro Corporation an engineering company.
Guangdong Meiyan Hydropower Co., Ltd.
Grid operators include:
State Grid Corporation of China
China Southern Power Grid
Wenzhou CHINT Group Corporation ("Zhengtai")

Electricity sector in the People's Republic of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

also please see

Categoryower companies of the People's Republic of China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Power_companies_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China


Are they also State owned?

 

[nimo_cn]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

So who is faking the data?

Or is the data not faked?

What are the other loopholes?

I have pointed out the loopholes of the article, local CPC officials can't force central-owned companies to hide real data from Beijing as the article had claimed. If it is not my writing skills, then you must have some comprehension problems.

NYTimes claimed the data is fake because local official are faking it, I am saying it can't be possible for the locals to fake the data.

 

[Armand2REP]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

NYTimes claimed the data is fake because local official are faking it, I am saying it can't be possible for the locals to fake the data.

Why couldn't they? Most of the companies I audited couldn't even keep their books straight. As long as they fill out the forms to comply with the Accountancy Law, no one bothers to check if it is correct. Upon inspection: inventories didn't match up, nor did assets, revenue or accounts receivables. Inventory was piled up while sales exaggerated, debt write-offs weren't even included, assets far over valued. SOEs are run by CCP cronies and supplied capital by more cronies in the banks. It is a monolith of corruption and bad accountancy...

 

[Ray]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

I have pointed out the loopholes of the article, local CPC officials can't force central-owned companies to hide real data from Beijing as the article had claimed. If it is not my writing skills, then you must have some comprehension problems.

NYTimes claimed the data is fake because local official are faking it, I am saying it can't be possible for the locals to fake the data.

OK.

Thanks.

Got it.

Capitalist propaganda!

 

[nimo_cn]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

Why couldn't they? Most of the companies I audited couldn't even keep their books straight. As long as they fill out the forms to comply with the Accountancy Law, no one bothers to check if it is correct. Upon inspection: inventories didn't match up, nor did assets, revenue or accounts receivables. Inventory was piled up while sales exaggerated, debt write-offs weren't even included, assets far over valued. SOEs are run by CCP cronies and supplied capital by more cronies in the banks. It is a monolith of corruption and bad accountancy...

Who are you refering to by "they", the local officials or the state-owned companies?

NYTimes' theory is that the state-owned companies are forced by local CPC officials to keep real data from Beijing, and I am merely pointed out loopholes of that theory. Now what, you are inventing another theory?

 

[G90]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

As usual the west have basically no clue about China ROFL

The state-owned mega corporations like State Grid only report to the State assert management and superviorision commitee, which means they are under directly control of central government, and are peers to local goverments.

Meanwhile, the CEO of State Grid is the son of a retired political big man in China, who is far more seniors to any local government offiicals or their own fathers (saving for two of them), you think he could give a ---- to the local government officials to the degree he even fake a report to cheat the central goverment (which is a big crime in China, which will at least cost his own political future) :ROFL:

 

[Armand2REP]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

Who are you refering to by "they", the local officials or the state-owned companies?

The reporting authority of the companies...

NYTimes' theory is that the state-owned companies are forced by local CPC officials to keep real data from Beijing, and I am merely pointed out loopholes of that theory. Now what, you are inventing another theory?

I am saying the data local authorities already get is fake, they know it and don't enforce inspection of the Accountancy Law. They let the companies do the dirty work for them.

 

[no smoking]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

You understand my feelings?

You are psychic?

You have ESP?

Pray?

Since when have Communists understood prayers?

Since I am not a Communist at all! Or even not holding a chinese passport!

OK, so China fakes figures.

Everyone requires false data?

OK China is a superpower - false data!

Does it matter to you or anybody except chinese? China is faking its data or not, india is not the one to be affected!

Glad India does not fake their data or else the Govt would be thrown out!

Great difference and every so reassuring!

Don't worry, wait and see!

 

[panduranghari]

Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles: Economis

http://ineteconomics.org/sites/inet.civicactions.net/files/BWpaper_SHIH_040811.pdf

Some excerpts;


>> China has three structural causes of capital flight. First, wealth in China is highly
concentrated. Using three different methodologies based on survey data, data on
large share holders of listed company, and data on the total financial and real estate
assets in China, the wealthiest 1% urban households command between 2 and 5
trillion USD in wealth.

>> A 20% reallocation of this wealth overseas would cause a substantial but likely
controllable drainage of China's foreign exchange reserve.

>> A 30-40% reallocation of this wealth overseas would see the depletion of China's
foreign exchange reserve by close to 1 trillion USD or more.

>> Second, underground banks, false trade invoicing, and now an experimental scheme
to allow individual investors to invest overseas provide multiple channels for capital to circumvent China's exchange control.

>> Third, real deposit interest rates are negative and will remain so in the foreseeable future, thus prompting wealthy households to speculate overseas on a large scale if relative returns suddenly decrease in China.

>> If the top 1% of households in China reallocates 1 trillion USD of their wealth
overseas, the central bank then will be faced with a choice between large scale
quantitative easing and an illiquid banking system.

>> In the short term, China's only recourse to reduce the volatile state of its foreign
exchange reserve is to bring real interest rates back to positive territory.

Shih also finds strong evidence that the risks posed by capital flight has been increasing (my emphasis):

Over time, rising income and wealth inequality only makes the situation more
volatile, especially at a time when the growth of the FX reserve is expected to slow. In 2009, for example, the foreign exchange reserve grew by 22%, but the wealth of the
super wealthy listed in Hurun grew by 26% in 2009 and 64% in the two year period
between 2008 and 2009.

Thus, unless policies are put into place to reverse this trend, the FX reserve becomes increasingly vulnerable to capital flight by the top 1% of households over time.


Where is this money going?