How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by jakojako777, Jan 5, 2010.

  1. jakojako777

    jakojako777 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,957
    Likes Received:
    40
    How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World

    In a remote corner of the world, a port bristles with cranes, smokestacks, mammoth ships—and trouble for Europe.


    Over the next few days, Russia will change the world. It has completed a new oil pipeline and port complex that sets Russia up to become a more powerful oil exporter than Saudi Arabia. The ramifications for Europe and Asia are profound: The shape of the global economy—and the global balance of power—will be altered forever.

    December 28 was a big day of ceremony in Russia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pushed a button that transformed global oil dynamics—especially for Asia and Europe. The button released thousands of barrels of Siberian crude into a waiting Russian supertanker and heralded the opening of Russia’s first modern Pacific-based oil export facilities.

    The multibillion-dollar, state-of-the-art oil terminal was a “great New Year present for Russia,” Putin said during the inauguration. The strategic terminal, located in the city of Kozmino on the coast of the Sea of Japan, is one of the “biggest projects in contemporary Russia” he said, not only in “modern Russia, but the former Soviet Union too.”

    Putin has every right to be enthusiastic about his new port. Kozmino will unlock a two-way gate through which Russia’s vast Siberian oilfields will gush into Asia’s energy-hungry economies—and Chinese, Korean and Japanese currency will flow into Russia.

    If just the seven ships currently waiting to berth are all filled during January, the port of Kozmino will instantly become Russia’s third-most important oil outlet.

    According to Reuters, the first oil transport loads on January 15. In a symbolic move highlighting Russia’s warming relationship with China, Hong Kong will receive the first shipment.

    After that, Kozmino’s importance will exponentially grow over the next year. Currently, all Siberian oil shipments into Kozmino are delivered by train—but that will soon change. Phase one of the East Siberian-Pacific Ocean Pipeline (espo) was also completed during December. Phase two will soon connect the Siberian fields directly to the new port. When phase two is finished in 2012, total exports could jump from the current rate of 250,000 barrels per day to over 1 million. Kozmino will transform into one of the largest oil centers in the world—capable of handling 16 percent of total Russian oil exports. It will be one of the most strategic geopolitical assets in Russia’s arsenal.

    Russia pumped more than 10 million barrels of oil per day during November. With Saudi Arabian production falling, Russia is now the world’s largest oil exporter. Toss in Russia’s natural gas exports, and Russia is the biggest energy superpower in the world, by far. That does not even count Russia’s massive uranium resources and nuclear expertise.

    But here is why the new port in Kozmino could radically affect the future of both Asia and Europe. For over a century, Russia’s entire energy infrastructure has focused mainly on supplying Europe. That has now changed forever!

    The first and now-complete phase of the espo pipeline, which connects Russia’s Siberian oil fields to China, is already destabilizing global oil dynamics and shifting them in Russia’s direction. “espo is what political strategists might call a ‘game-changer,’” writes the Telegraph. “It means that Russia will be able to send its oil either east or west—so it can drive a harder bargain when selling crude to Europe” (emphasis mine throughout).

    Previously, when Russia has had pricing disputes with Europe, Moscow had to play the embargo card with an obvious bluff. It had no other alternative outlet for its oil. Without the Europeans, its oil would sit in Samotlor and Tyanskoye, costing money instead of making it. But now Moscow can turn off the tap to Europe and still pump in the profits by opening the pipe wide to its energy-hungry Asian partners.

    But Russia’s stranglehold on Europe is about to get even tighter—much tighter. By 2012, the espo pipeline will be twinned with a pipeline for natural gas exports so Russian gas supplies can also flow east instead of west if necessary.

    This development is truly scary to Europeans.

    Moscow has already demonstrated that it isn’t afraid to turn off Europe’s energy supplies when it feels it needs to. In the middle of winter 2006, Russia shut off gas supplies to Germany, and several other countries, in order to punish Ukraine. Since then, it has repeatedly used the same method to strong-arm its former Eastern European satellites back into accepting Russian dominance.

    The message is clear: Russian oil and gas supplies are a weapon to be used—or not used—to freeze opponents into submission.

    Europe, in a tenuous relationship with Russia to begin with, desperately needs to secure another source of energy. Only one other region in the world can supply the energy to warm and lubricate modern Europe’s homes and industries: the Middle East. Countries like Germany, which imports 90 percent of its oil, are now much more dependent on one of the most volatile regions of the world for power supplies.

    It is inevitable that Berlin will seek to expand its ties with oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council members: the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and especially Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest petroleum producer. Europe has no choice but to become much more intimately involved with the affairs of the Middle East—a region from which 40 percent of its oil is currently derived.

    It is therefore no surprise that Germany, the most dominant nation in Europe, has made sure it has troops on the ground surrounding this Middle Eastern “golden triangle” of energy production (Gulf Cooperation Council members plus Iran and Iraq). On the seas, the European Union’s naval presence is growing too. The European anti-piracy task force operates in both the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden. Forty percent of the world’s ocean-borne oil is shipped through the Gulf of Oman.

    Europe is critically dependent on imported oil. And Germany knows it must have a strong presence in the world’s most oil-rich region if it is to secure its flow and the country’s future.


    The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode at any time. Syria dominates Lebanon and is stirring up trouble there. Iran is about to create a nuclear weapon and has said it wants to wipe Israel off the map. It is test firing missiles that can strike European capitals. Israel knows that the window to prevent Iran from getting the bomb is closing. Hamas is preparing to violently take East Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital. Israel is about to release 1,000 terrorists back onto the streets in return for one captured Israeli soldier.

    And to top it off, the world is in the midst of its worst depression since the 1930s. Oil prices remain above $70 per barrel, and the International Energy Agency has indicated that world oil production will now peak in 2020—10 years sooner than prior estimates. Some analysts think the world has already reached peak oil production.

    In this climate of global instability, Russia’s recent moves on the world’s oil stage will be amplified in dramatic fashion. By unlocking Siberia’s energy reserves, Russia is simultaneously binding Asia together and lighting a fire under Europe. Watch for the development of an Asian alliance between Russia, China and Japan. And watch for Europe’s next moves toward the Middle East.


    How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World | Columns | theTrumpet.com by the Philadelphia Church of God
     
  2.  
  3. Indianrabbit

    Indianrabbit Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2009
    Messages:
    475
    Likes Received:
    13
    Wow a stronger Russia is good for India.
     
  4. jakojako777

    jakojako777 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,957
    Likes Received:
    40
    Yes my friend nothing like good old common sense.
    The stronger are India and Russia the less is China going to mess around.:d_training:
     
  5. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2009
    Messages:
    210
    Likes Received:
    0
    If Indians and Russians can not accept a strong China it'd be your problem not ours.

    It's too early to say Russia has the capacity to use energy as a weapon. When oil price goes down below 60USD the oil export won't bring enough profits and Russia would have the debt problem again.
     
  6. redragon

    redragon Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2009
    Messages:
    928
    Likes Received:
    36
    60? It's long gone, the normal price should be 75-90. the new energy is the real threat for Russia
     
  7. jakojako777

    jakojako777 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,957
    Likes Received:
    40

    If Indians and Russians can not accept a strong China it'd be your problem not ours.
    Nobody is rejecting China .
    It is not problem accepting future strong China...the problem is taking care that China can be contained if ever necessary.

    When oil price goes down below 60USD the oil export won't bring enough profits and Russia would have the debt problem again.


    Stop your wet dreams.
    Oil will NEVER again go under 60$ !
    You didn't read article?
    The most optimistic prediction gives world 10 years of sufficient oil supply after which ALL production will be in net decline.
    Everybody can gues that prices will start to rise SKY HIGH before that time even comes close.
    And be cause of growth of the population there is always GROWTH of DEMAND for oil - that will just speed up process.
    So Russian future is VERY bright .
    Regarding EU "energy as a weapon" it is already becoming reality.
    Once oil becomes more precious the power of Russia will grow.
     
  8. jakojako777

    jakojako777 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,957
    Likes Received:
    40
    OK if you think that electric cars can so easily and quickly replace others I don't want to waist my time talking to you.
    New energy will come just gradually enough to ease the need for classic energy resources and evade catastrophe of total chase after what is left of the scarce resources.......

    This decade is already announced as decade of wars for resources and No1 is oil !

    Many ignore and underestimate difficulty of every day deeper drilling to reach for that oil that is all the time getting more difficult to extract
    That is additional factor that will start to raise the price
     

Share This Page