How much longer can russia hold out against china

Discussion in 'China' started by roma, Sep 7, 2009.

  1. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    The 2000 census / population of russia taken from online source Population statistics: historical demography shows a population of 147 million declining at
    0.2 % while china's at 1275 million growing at 1.2% and india's at 1027 million grwoing at 2.1 % ...... some of those figures could be questionable but the general trends are beyond question , russia with a much smaller populaton than china and declining whereas china's 8 times larger and growing.
    so one wonders how much longer russia can hold out against the much faster growing chinese and if there would be a day when the chinese would renew their claims to russian territory.
    The russians can look at the example of china india border where claims are being made after 40 years of peace and so the fact that chinese foreighn minister jiang recently signed aborger agreement with his russian counterpart should really give little assurance to the russians that the matter is settled. Far from it ....they change their mind to their convenience and especially when they have comparitive strength.
    with such a huge landmass to guard and so few people to do the job, deaths exceeding births and a shrinking population one wonders if the russians have been too tardy in seeking allies and particular with india which could boost the manpower shortage.
    YOur opinions please.
     
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  3. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Really, we never thought that way. We kept on thinking whether Russia will come for our support if China tries to invade India. Because of Russia's present technological superiority we always think Russia is beyond any Chinease threat. But China is slowly closing in the gap and if not today tomorrow Russia will be infront of a threat. If China's technological advancement reaches near that of Russia China may raise the disputes again. In a large scale war China can field several times bigger manpower than Russia. And probably Chinease economy will be more solid than Russia to absorbe the shock of a big war. Russia must maintain her relation with India and must convince India to stand by her when it is necessary.

    But situation will be different if China gets involved in a fullfledged war with India within next 5-10 years and deplate her resources in a fruitless war. It will definately delay the Chinese economical and yechnological growth to challenge Russia in near future.
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It will raise border issue but there will be no war. Even if China attains techincal parity with Russia, it cannot and will not go to war. The two erstwhile super powers did not directly go to war as they knew it would result in total destruction. Great powers have always fought wars through proxies. There are many examples.
     
  5. 1.44

    1.44 Member of The Month SEPTEMBER 2009 Senior Member

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    The Russian far east is woefully under developed and the Chinese already outnumber the 6 million people living in the resource region.Even if the Chinese do not take control over the region by military action they can still use their investments and their illegal immigration to firmly establish some measure of control over the region.
     
  6. Koji

    Koji New Member

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    Why are you guys assuming there is anomisity between the two countries? I thought they are closer than ever. They vote together in the SC, their militaries train together, and they are the leaders in the Shanghai Co-op.
     
  7. ppgj

    ppgj Senior Member Senior Member

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    russians do have problems with china in siberian region wrt the change in demography of ethnicity.all may be quiet for now but it is brewing all the same.though a showdown may not take place now but one can't rule out in the future.
     
  8. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Referring to Mr Yusuf's post above, Sir you are most likely to be correct and i have no argument with that at all , but what i was addressing was actually a different dimension. I have attempted to add a new dimension to our ususal reference and argument which is strictly based on defence technology. That is to say the population present numbers and the trends .
    My thesis continues to be that the smiling faces of chinese shaking hands with russian government officials is no reason for the russians to think that all is well .....the co-operation in SCO , voting together in UNSC and armies training together is a superb example of a repeat of what happened with india, in fact even recently and for years the two armies of india and china have been training together yet there is talk of a chinese invasion within the next few years.
    My advice to the russian people and govt ( not sure if theyre on this forum ! ) is that with your declining population, YOU ARE HEADED FOR A SERIOUS COLLAPSE . You cant increase population like switching on a light bulb , so you need temporary manpower infusion to tide you over till you can convince your population accordingly.
    Where will you get that professional manpower from, my guess is that only india has excess manpower to "loan" to you in exchange for better wages than they could get back home. Do a 3 to 5 year contract in russia while they buildup population wise .
    It's a good deal russia, otherwise , goodbye to your far east . It is already crumbling, chinese are treating the russians who do business there with contempt.
     
  9. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Don't worry Russia is waiting for global warming crescendo.:blum3:
     
  10. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    powers need not fear others .

    if one country fear other suddently, it just show that it becomes too weak
     
  11. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Or they can stop the circulation of condoms. :D

    On a serious note,
    I don't see much of a Chinese threat to Russia. Russia is on the rise again, and its military assets are stronger than those of China, qualitatively and quantitatively(few exceptions).
    If in the event of war, Russia possesses enough military might to send a bleeding China behind the Wall(Thats if no other country intervenes).
    The population factor, though important, is not a threat for quite a few years.

    There is only one superpower in Asia right now, and thats Russia.
     
  12. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    sohamsri

    yes agree. Populations neither rise nor fall suddenly , the scenario(s) is was forecasting are in the future ( being forecasts ) and population falls are erosive in nature not sudden. So it's a longer term picture : Still feel russia in no position to be complacent . It is a serious collapse in the making.
     
  13. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Russians always have to be wary of China the whole Idea behind US/West building up China was to use China against Russia, though that concept may not apply the intentions stiill remain.
     
  14. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Roma,
    Population disparity doesn't mean the country with a higher ratio automatically is in the ascendency. To defend the country or to attack, the entire nation is not called upon to fight. It's the military which does. If the country has a small population, then there is conscripion as in the case of Israel. That israel has held it's own infact being the most powerful of the entire middle east proves that low population doesn't necessarily mean a disadvantage. Technology can take care of it.

    Russia will not allow any illegal or even legal migration into it's territory if it changes the demography. So any mass migration that undermines that nations security is not going to happen.
     
  15. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Roma,

    interesting angle to look at things, though a slight correction there. the population growth rate for india = 1.46%, the prc = 0.63%, and for russia = (-)0.51% . ( List of countries by population growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ).

    coming to the question, well hypothetical really to assume they will invade the way it has been suggested though there have been certain analysis presented previously as well on similar lines in the past.

    let us check the basics first, how many people are required to man this border area, what role does technology play in doing the same, and how technology would change the need of a human in such kind of work in the future. EU, is facing a similar threat, ie depletion of their populace but then to run their economy they did hire people from outer world, a similar thing can be attempted by the russians as well and for that they need not depend on only the indians and the short coming on manning the borders can then still be handled by the russians themselves, and this is a scenarios we are talking if not more then at least a decade or two down the line.

    if the same depletion in population continues yoy, though i doubt that trend would continue for long, since people who would have joined from the outside world would add up to the numbers and them having children would certainly help the cause, may be they could as well move their extended families along side, but still in a worst case scenario assuming it does then by how much will the population fall, and as i said before, the use of technology gets important, are we not using unmanned aerial vehicles, or the same on land and under water, is there not a talk of using robots and probably it will them who will do all the job.

    may be i am underestimating the threat that it posses but i guess the threat in such a scenario will be internal and that will be because there will falling consumption trends in the country, which will directly effect the country's economy but still that can be managed.
     
  16. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Yusuf,
    Hi there ...good series of riposts that we are having here, all above board for sure. So , youre a Major-GEneral , well then i better get some good logic here herhehehrheh.
    Interesting that you should mention Israel . We could also talk about many of the Arabian Gulf states and small tiny countries even singapore. All have good defences, all have employed technilogy effectively , all have population problems , all invite immigration ( some are now FRANTIC about the need to grow their populations ) .
    Russia is huge geographically, but what it has in common with those tinys mentioned above is a developing crisis in its population demographics.
    Technology can cover the lack of manpower and can stretch it a lot , but what i STILL maintain is : theyre in BIG trouble longer term. If they do something about it , that day may never come . One of the smal countriesmentioned above , i have a great deal of experience with . They couldnt solve their population problem despite having identified it as a problem about 30 years ago . They are employing technology to cover for manpower deficiencies and are largely succesful in that , but their very ideentity as a nation is now a major topic of daily debate, With more foreigners being accepted as PR's and later as citizens the demographics is changing drastically. Even here in europ where i live i have seen with my own eyes thehdemographics change seriously . the very concept of european nationality is requiring a big change . In russia they dont have even these options . No one wants to migrate there. Many russians are leaveing by the loads , coming here to europe and usa or canada .
    Longer term i still say russia is in heap big trouble demographically and the implications on their ability to defend , ntwithstanding technology and all that will take a huuuge hit.
    They aught to think of some solid solution fast and the time to start is NOW !
     
  17. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Roma,
    I am just a DFI Maj Gen due to my position here. Not a real Maj Gen. Im just another armchair general like all of us here.

    The number of men required to defend Russia is the same as what it was a few years ago. Infact Russia has been downsizing its armed forces. Partly due to the fact it was a big salary burden and part they didnt need such a large force. Russia right now has about 1 million on active duty plus reserve force. Russia already has conscription but it is very liberal and you can get away with conscription. Russia has always been vary of China and has appropriate defences and offensive forces facing them. Russia can right now march into China if it so choses to.
    As you talk of the future, the number of men required to man will remain the same. Would Russia of its population of 150 million all be it declining not be able amass a million men? With more and more technology coming in, its possible that its troops requirement will be even lesser.
     
  18. amitkriit

    amitkriit Senior Member Senior Member

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  19. Officer of Engineers

    Officer of Engineers Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Let me get this straight. The Indian members on this forum are actually suggesting the PLA's 38th and 39th Group Armies can actually march north?
     
  20. F-14

    F-14 Global Defence Moderator Senior Member

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    sir what is your take on this please enlighten
     
  21. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    I don't think anyone suggested so, sir.
    The general view has just been that Russia would have enough force to crush a Chinese misadventure.
     

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