How Long Will It Take for India to Surpass China? Itâ€™s taken India years to catch up with China and surpass it in terms of its rate of economic expansion, but the countryâ€™s economy is still only around a third the size of Chinaâ€™s. So how long will it take the Indian economy to match its northern neighbor in girth? As with every economic conundrum, the answer depends upon your assumptions. Here are a few numbersâ€”albeit based on wild assumptionsâ€“that may provide some context. HOPES 78 years This scenario assumes that both the billion-person economies grow in line with the best official projections. That would see China growing 7% this year and India growing as much as 8.5% in the fiscal year starting next month. It also involves the unlikely case that both economies will continue to grow at those rates on average long into the future. All that being the case, India will pass China in terms of size around 2093. Thatâ€™s 78 years from now. DREAMS 23 years Letâ€™s dream bigger, though. If you assume that India was at last able to push its gross domestic product expansion up to an average of 10% a year and meanwhile Chinaâ€™s mature economy settled down to an average of around 5% a year, then it would only take 23 years for the South Asian nation to overtake its eastern rival. NIGHTMARES 11 years Letâ€™s assume Chinaâ€™s slowdown is even worse. Even if it stopped growing altogether and India was still somehow able to expand at 10% a year on average, it would take more than a decade for India to reach Chinaâ€™s GDP total of around $10 trillion. Of course, having one of the worldsâ€™ biggest economies just stop growing for decades would be a catastrophe that would change growth everywhere so this scenario, like the others, is basically just a mathematical trick GENERATIONS 3 So, how long is the 78 years it would take India to catch up at the current rate of growth? About three generations. That is to say that India will not become bigger than China until after your great-grandchildren are born. ANOTHER ERA 1937 Another way to get perspective on how long that is: think back 78 years, to 1937. That was the year George IV was crowned king of the British Empire and emperor of India. Toyota Motor Corp. was founded in August that year. Hitler wouldnâ€™t invade Poland for another two years. How Long Will It Take for India to Surpass China? â€“ The Numbers - WSJ I think it will be between Dreams and Night mares, a matter of 2 to one and half decades !