How Long Will It Take for India to Surpass China?

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Srinivas_K, Mar 14, 2015.

  1. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    How Long Will It Take for India to Surpass China?

    It’s taken India years to catch up with China and surpass it in terms of its rate of economic expansion, but the country’s economy is still only around a third the size of China’s.

    So how long will it take the Indian economy to match its northern neighbor in girth?

    As with every economic conundrum, the answer depends upon your assumptions. Here are a few numbers—albeit based on wild assumptions–that may provide some context.

    HOPES

    78 years

    This scenario assumes that both the billion-person economies grow in line with the best official projections.

    That would see China growing 7% this year and India growing as much as 8.5% in the fiscal year starting next month.

    It also involves the unlikely case that both economies will continue to grow at those rates on average long into the future.

    All that being the case, India will pass China in terms of size around 2093. That’s 78 years from now.

    DREAMS

    23 years

    Let’s dream bigger, though. If you assume that India was at last able to push its gross domestic product expansion up to an average of 10% a year and meanwhile China’s mature economy settled down to an average of around 5% a year, then it would only take 23 years for the South Asian nation to overtake its eastern rival.

    NIGHTMARES

    11 years

    Let’s assume China’s slowdown is even worse. Even if it stopped growing altogether and India was still somehow able to expand at 10% a year on average, it would take more than a decade for India to reach China’s GDP total of around $10 trillion. Of course, having one of the worlds’ biggest economies just stop growing for decades would be a catastrophe that would change growth everywhere so this scenario, like the others, is basically just a mathematical trick

    GENERATIONS

    3

    So, how long is the 78 years it would take India to catch up at the current rate of growth? About three generations. That is to say that India will not become bigger than China until after your great-grandchildren are born.

    ANOTHER ERA

    1937

    Another way to get perspective on how long that is: think back 78 years, to 1937. That was the year George IV was crowned king of the British Empire and emperor of India. Toyota Motor Corp. was founded in August that year. Hitler wouldn’t invade Poland for another two years.

    How Long Will It Take for India to Surpass China? – The Numbers - WSJ

    I think it will be between Dreams and Night mares, a matter of 2 to one and half decades !
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2015
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    As long as we have people who prefer to look at North Korea and pretend we are doing great, it will take at least one era before we can surpass China. Am I right, @Mad Indian?

    BTW, how do we define one era? A century? A millennium? A great year?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
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  4. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    what if congressi rule india for atleast another 50 years of that 78 years,

    or at least 2 of that 3 generations,

    or at least 10 of that 23,

    more caste based concessions,reservations and more and more paki and bangladeshi getting indian citizenships. :laugh:
     
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  5. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    You would prefer to live in a Dictatorship over Democracy then? Good to know..
     
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  6. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    my view is that it is not a matter of time , but rather a matter of thinking

    we need paradigm changes in the thought patterns , unity , sense of national ethics

    and other areas too numerous to mention here ....... change and improve our thinking by paradigms

    and the catch-up would be so swift and with such momentum as to create shock-waves globally ! !

    otoh refuse to change the thinking and closing the gap will never happen !

    addendum: One attitude that seriously needs to be fixed, and fast too, is the attitude of a large number of the parliamentarians in the Rajya ~ Sabha - . - _talking about" South Indian Women" and women's body shape in general when the debate was supposed to have been about insurance and financial. related matters ..... such would never have" n happened in China

    We need to ask Nano and the people to wake some serious replacements in that assembly. Megalomaniacs have usurped the proceedings and instead of serving the people, they are serving their pockets and their egos.

    that has gotta change

    instead of asking the question in the title, i would ask - how do we improve ourselves , never mind china or anyone else

    we should see china as an inspiration or an alternative route for progress, except in the area of defence where they
    are without doubt the major adversary. .

    once again
    never mind about china , or phina
    take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves

    just make sure this stops happening
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...nd-dead-in-Bengaluru/articleshow/46586702.cms
    and catching up with whoever will take care of itself !
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2015
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  7. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    There're more meaningful indicators than GDP, or GDP growth rate, such as life expectancy, child mortality rate, adult literacy rate, electricity consumption per person, internet users...

    [​IMG]
     
  8. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    Only Idiots think India will surpass China or US in economy

    Hello see maps of US/Chi, they have huge natural resources,civilized neighbors with human resources.We have mostly Human resources,less natural resources with filthy neighbors (Pak-a,BD,Npl,Burma etc).

    2.Psychology of Human is very important.US want to be/IS World police,China want to be 1st or want to beat US.We neither interested in Policing or beating US/China.

    In any-case we stay No.3 for another 200 yrs
     
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    [​IMG]
     
  10. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Material possessions should not be the major criteria of judging a person's success. India must preserve its unique qualities which has made India a great civilization.

    Indians will definitely get richer. Whether they get richer in comparison with China is unimportant.

    India needs to develop electronic industries if the growth is to be sustained.
     
  11. mayfair

    mayfair Elite Member Elite Member

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    We need not "surpass" anyone, just strengthen ourselves, be progressive and strive to get better and better with time. Why this urge to "surpass China"? China's growth is good for them, India's growth is good for us Indians.

    Different countries and people "grow" into different trajectories that are not completely comparable.
     
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  12. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

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    India can be equal to China in 15 to 20 years if we remove corruption and bring innovation in our way of thinking. Corruption like black money is destroying India. India's economy is around 3 to 4 trillion but we register only 2.1 trillion because the rest is in black or untaxed or unregistered economy .
    Example I know a guy who brought a 5 crore rupees house but showed the house as 35 lakhs to pay less tax this is just one example.
     
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  13. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    That'll be forever for practically all fields, except population.
     
  14. DingDong

    DingDong Senior Member Senior Member

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    India has followed a path of organic and sustainable growth. We used to read stories about the "Asian Tigers", where are they now? Our rate of growth will pick up sooner than expected once we break the threshold of 2000 USD per capita, our growth will be driven by the services boom and a rise in domestic demand (people will have money left in their hands after spending on basic needs) which will catalyze manufacturing. My guess is that India is going to hit the growth expressway after 2018.
     
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  15. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    India has allegedly surpassed China in GDP growth rate after the calculation method "adjustment". So it's a piece of cake isn't it?

    But look at below graph, child mortality, literacy... phewwwwwww -- backbreaking efforts of generations are needed in order to improve any of those digits! No shortcuts indeed.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

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    China is a communist country so it will always have the wealth and services spread out. India is capitalist and accepts that there will be winners and losers. All the factor's you listed don't matter in the slightest, they aid in improving GDP, which is the ultimate source of power. It doesn't matter if one guy in India is sitting on a $100k or if two guys in China have $50k each, it is effectively the same from a national power perspective. China has taken every possible short cut to boost its GDP and don't even get me started on the Shadow banking, government growth targets that never seem to falter even when exports are down, which are much worse than any "adjusted GDP" argument you can make about India.

    The fact is that China sold it's future to make rapid gains now. They cut their population severely and as a result with so few young people all the earned income went into banks where it acted as massive capital to finance economic growth. China will have to pay the price for that later, everyone assumes they can manage it, but realistically no one knows how that will pay out. It might make Japan's "lost decade" look like a hiccup. Communism which is basically like a dictatorship absolutely has short term gains as everything is easy to do, no debate no feedback from the people, just "do this or we will shoot you in the head." Such tactics only work for so long, as the human spirit at its very core yearns to be free. One democratic revolution and it could set back China's economy for decades.

    So yes China has done well by taking all possible short cuts but the foundation they have build upon is weak. India has done the opposite and is rising on a solid foundation. How long will it take India to overtake China? Who knows? But something to consider, if China and India tie at 50 Trillion dollar economies who is really the more powerful nation then? China which has dominance over pretty much no place at all, and a never ending list of hostile powerful nations: USA, Japan, Vietnam, India, Philippines, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan etc... or India which pretty much dominates South Asia and the entire Indian Ocean region (to a significant extent if not completely) and has virtually no enemies except Pakistan as well as a whole list of powerful allies.

    India and China aren't equals because China has 1000x the forces opposing it. All India need do is slowly rise on a powerful foundation and let the USA and its allies deal with China, while China has to simultaneously balance not running into a credit bubble, real estate bubble, population time bomb or a democratic civil war.
     
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  17. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Basically, what you saying is: because India is not doing anything meaningful and taking no risk, India is looking better. Well, I guess if India can succeed with a policy, it is definitely a big achievement in human history.

    You are talking like a poor boy dreaming about how his life could be when he got rich while he has no single clue how he can get rich in the first place.
    Kid, the only reason that India has not faced these foreign trouble yet is: you are 2 trillion economy while China is 10 trillion economy.
     
  18. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well, most of any developing problems today are related directly or indirectly to the poverty.
    The only reason that India ancient civilization was admired is: Ancient Indians were enjoying a far better lives than most of people in the world at the time.
     
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  19. prohumanity

    prohumanity Regular Member

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    The agents of west want you to have this mindset to compare and create rivalry between India and China. Romaji is talking about pound and pennies and indicating that there is no need for stronger military. This is also what West dreams...a miliatrily weak India so that it can be controlled and manipulated to maximize profits of western corporations. I say India must keep making its military more and more powerful so the west can never again dare to use Pakistani type poodle against India. If they succeed in creating enmity between India and China...their hegemony can continue for decades otherwise the end of hegemony is very near. Just think why NATO can not invade Russia ? Because Russia has a powerful, formidable military force ...plain and simple ! If Iraq had Nukes...could west dare to invade Iraq ? Who are you fooling...Indians are smart and they understand these age old
    "divide and conquer" games. India and China are ancient civilizations and they can coexist with mutual respect and harmony.
     
  20. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    what ??? really ???:lol:

    there is hugh gap between chinas rich and poor.
     
  21. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    After the next big-crunch and big-bang, unless something terrible goes wrong in China (Aliens with a taste for dumplings invade).
     

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