How China can upstage The US vis a vis India

Discussion in 'China' started by Yusuf, Jun 8, 2012.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I wrote a new piece on my blog.

    How China can upstage The US vis a vis India | Sarvatra Vijay

    Over the last few days we have seen some hectic parlaying in Asia with Leon Panetta moving across the continent meeting with leaders of many important countries including India. He has called India the “lynchpin” of Asia. Foreign Minister SM Krishna traveled to China to attend the SCO summit where India is an observer. Reports say that the Chinese have been actively wooing India to join the SCO to thwart India joining any other security organization presumably led by the US. The US on the other side is trying to use India as a counter-weight against China. India it seems is in an enviable position of being pursued by the super power and the what is being touted as future super power.

    India’s relations with both US and China has been one of suspicion and mistrust. India was on the other side of the cold war divide and with China it fought a bitter war in 1962 the wounds of which are still fresh in India. China has over the years been aggressive in its claims which has made matters worse.

    Though India and China have not shared the best of political relations, trade between the two countries has grown rapidly and heavily in favour of China. The Chinese have also realized that India will pursue its foreign policy independently of other countries which suits Indian interest. This has got the Chinese interested in pursuing India and wean it away from the US which is actively trying to block China in Asia particularly because it has acrimonious relations with it neighbours in the South China Sea.

    China is now feeling the pressure that the US has exerted with its proactive policy especially with the latest announcement of stationing 60% of its naval force in the Pacific which is obviously intended at containing China. The US is actively pursuing India which sits on the strategic location of Indian Ocean through which much of China’s trade and energy passes.

    China can upstate the US by changing its stance on India which means settling the border issue. China claims large parts of Arunachal Pradesh, hold Aksai Chin and also the Pakistan ceded Shaksgham Valley. If China gives up the claims to the region and signs a treaty with India, India will not have any reason to be anti China and join any anti China bloc that comes up in Asia. What it also does is opens up China to use India as a land route to reach the Arabian sea and thereby avoiding its ally Pakistan which is a much more dangerous route and also harbors the East Turkestan rebels of China.

    China will also then benefit from an Indian acceptance of its sovereignty on Tibet from its current position of accepting Chinese suzerainty on Tibet. It will also benefit from India helping China in its handling of the Uigher issue. This will also mean opening up of direct land routes to trade between Tibet and East Turkestan with India.
    The Chinese can only be prevented from doing this by their own arrogance and not letting anyone in its backyard rival it. India is poised to grow militarily and economically. China will do well to accept the fact and consider partnering with India to create a peaceful and prosperous Asia. The opportunities will be immense. China stands to gain more from India than the other way round. India’s gain will be a peaceful border with China and its territorial integrity intact. Will China have the courage to settle the border row and sign a treaty with India? Time will tell how Chinese planners think.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2012
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  3. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Wow, India is enticing China into giving up a lot by virtually offering nothing in return. No matter by "suzerainty" or "sovereignty" China already has a de facto rule over Tibet recognized worldwide; Without India's help China would continue doing what's necessary for Uygur; And direct route? China already has got Pakistan.

    Indeed, India has nothing to offer. Or a counter-weight to China for US? That China has got used to. Weaning India away from the US? That's delusional. India would continue to play one against the other. Partnering with India to create a peaceful and prosperous Asia? No, China would be more comfortable without India.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2012
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  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Sure you failed to notice the strategic benefit it gets you. I have a feeling that the Chinese will actively try to solve the border row.
     
  5. StarShip Enterprise

    StarShip Enterprise Regular Member

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    is there anybody sane enough in china to see the light out of it ???

    " Pride goeth before Fall " and they are full of $$it.
     
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  6. huaxia rox

    huaxia rox Senior Member Senior Member

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    the whole thing is about merely india not prc and not SCO.....the best thing can turn out for india is if india plays good it can woo russia and the US at the same time to get the benefits as big as possible from both the 2 (for example u get t-50 and u get f-35 as well) but if things go wrong both the 2 (russia and the US) may dump india........and of coz what i see currently is india moving more close to the US which may coz unhappiness from russia........

    why prc and pakistan aint related to the whole thing???coz the relation between prc and india has been decided since the day india picked to undertake their forward north policy....and the relation between pakistan and india has been decided since the day the 2 had problems with kashmir........so with or without russia and the US....these wont change in the forseable future......

    besides how 'Chinese have been actively wooing India to join the SCO '????
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    If one has observed the Chinese history, it is replete with imperialist and expansionist fervour.

    Starting with a people from North of the Yellow River, they expanded South and West, civiilising what they called 'barbarians' and through coercion, intermarriage, humiliation forced people to covert to being Hans.

    China claims 92% of its population are Hans. It is a fudge since they converted the others to accept the Han culture and call themselves Han. The 100 Yues by no stretch of imagination (except Han) be Hans.

    This attitude of their can never change and therefore they will claim areas as theirs. It is an addiction that they cannot do without. Apart from what they claim of India, her actions in the South China Sea is the latest.

    Therefore, she will be at loggerheads with all her neighbours and there is no chance that they can ever be able to upstage the US.
     
  8. Bhadra

    Bhadra Defence Professionals Defence Professionals Senior Member

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    This is a win win situation for both India and China but it is too simplistic for international politics paradigms or crooked diplomacy the nations generally follow. China is too enemoured with their "central place" in the universe to allow a percieved rival grow in peace to compete with them in Asia and elsewhere. Therefore, China just throwing India off her back, though seems to be very good but may not be realistic.

    China not being a big threat to India means a clamity for Pakistan, more Indian influence in Nepal, BD, Myanmar and ASEAN including Vietnam. From Chinese point of view, that would mean reduction in Chineses core areas of influence specially loss of Pakistan and Indian neighbours. Diplomacy may not allow it.

    But yes, the time has come for India to make amximum of the situation and at least get its northern borders sorted out. Let India and China fight in South China Sea.
     
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  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Hence my last paragraph.
     
  10. huaxia rox

    huaxia rox Senior Member Senior Member

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    i ve said theres no room for prc to change the policy with india so long as zangnan is occupied....no matter how india can go along with the US or russia or pakistan india is prcs enemy.....

    besides u never say who needs whom more....u can try not to recognize tibet a part of prc and see the consequences.....
     
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  11. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Too simplistic, viz a viz China, India has not been aggressive, and whether China changes its stance or not, India is wary.

    Rest of Asia and the world looks upto us to counter-weight China, we have not agreed nor disagreed to fulfill this role, we want to milk this situation dry, and then if still possible remain neutral/friendly with China.

    On some platforms we have to ally with China, on some we have to go against. No need of a permanent scowl on the face.

    Land routes from China to Arabian Sea will be more expensive than sea route from China to ArabianSea.

    ?

    How can India help uighur issue ? India has acknowledged that Tibet is part of China, but we give refuge to Tibetans.

    China is not arrogant, we are not a major threat to them, RoW is.
     
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  12. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It sounds too simplistic and that is how it is as far as India goes. We need our territorial integrity to be respected. That is the end of the matter. I tried to figure out what China can gain from a friendly India.

    Yes we cannot trust them right now and from my posts on the forum, anyone can tell what my position is on the Chinese. Something tells me that the Chinis want to do business with India as uncle sam starts to encircle it.
     
  13. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Another good piece Yusuf, and putting up a case of forging closer ties with the PRC is a pretty tough subject to write on given how the PRC has a habit of double dealing with us. Much appreciated.

    It’s largely a myth that China is pursuing India. Fair enough the news websites will report China’s wooing us, but that should be largely seen as an effort to present a more balanced view, which in fact could well be far from true. We will keep dealing with a two faced China where a small section will play a good cop to us, the other and the majority, a bad and an aggressive cop, and it is the latter which comes across as the real face of China.

    I would on the contrary suggest different, it is time we bid a thankful goodbye to raksha mantri AK Antony, it is for the first time I am suggesting this and now is the time to do it (before the next US administration takes charge) and look for an alternative who is keen to take up the common cause with the US. Too much of idealism and too much of a protective/defensive mindset also doesn’t pay. There is so much to gain from this relationship, and we need to relook at this relationship at a time when the US is more than willing to make some serious concessions for us.

    Let us be clear about one thing, a strong Indo-US relationship, but without compromising on certain issues which are of interest to us, ought to be the way for the next few decades at least. This well could be the most defining relationship, as the rhetoric goes.

    Let us gain a serious global foothold, where the US has the most important part to play. Extremely important that we attain membership of certain exclusive groups or increase our stake and presence in world bodies where we already have a presence which influence the way world shapes up, be it economic, technology control, security, or strategic bodies. This coupled with strong economy, armed forces well stocked and budgeted which can look after Indian interests far beyond the Indian land/air space/sea lanes, and a very assertive political leadership will mean the real rising of India.

    Let us do this much, and this ought to be the homework for the next few decades and then sit and settle out disputes with the PRC. Chinese have a habit of dealing and negotiating with an opposition that is strong, not a weak one. Today China doesn’t have a good enough reason to even listen to us on Pakistan or on our encirclement about which they remain largely dismissive by suggesting it as India’s hyperbole, forget settling border disputes, their encirclement or more for now.
     
  14. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    My piece was totally from the PoV of what China can do to take on the US in Asia.

    As always, I will always be pro US and advocate strong military and strategic ties with them. My take on the recent happenings vis a vis US when i find the time. Quite a few things in my mind which i have to gather and write.
     
  15. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    India China relations will remain in this " Blow hot and cold " state for a long time till
    China dumps Pakistan

    China's attitude towards India changes every day
    Now that Mr Panetta has given
    a heart attack to CCP Mandarins the CCP is singing paens in praise of India's NEUTRALITY
     
  16. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Antony should leave for Beijing immediately.

    And then visit Philippines on teh way back. And conduct joint naval exercises with them.
     
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  17. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    And also make a stopover at Vietnam where India and Vietnam sign an accord
    that India is selling Brahmos and Prithvi missiles AND also our OLD Frigates like
    INS Godavari and INS Rajput and Vietnam is giving India the CAM RAHN BAY :india:
     
  18. DMF

    DMF Regular Member

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    USA want to contain China,not be because China is the enemy, but a competitor. Obama once said during his visit to Australia, that if Chinese like to live an American life, this earth will be not enough to sustain.
    The USA is far from China, but intertwined in business, will not fight a open war, but regret that give China a chance to develop.
    USA only want to use India, to woo India to buy some weapons, but will not help India to develop economically, because this is not according USA interests, a poor India is better.
    But India is near to China, also a competitor to China. 2500years ago, China was in a war-stats situation, the foreign policy of the warring stats was: To make good relationship with far away countries and attack the nearby.
    But at these days, the purpose of war can be achieved without war.
     
  19. captonjohn

    captonjohn Regular Member

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    do not even think about to test indian capabilities. This is not 1962 so stop threatening us!!
     
  20. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well, an indian expert's idea what is the best interest for Chna in handling China-india relationship!

    The name itself already tell you a lot about the value of this proposal.

    "giving up the claims to disputed area"? No problem, as long as india gives up its claim! Will india do that?

    "accept china's sovereign over tibet?" Sorry, you already give that! You can give the same thing twice!

    "Help China handling USA's pressure"? Come on, India cannot even handle USA's force in india ocean, how can it come to help China in west Pacific? With what? Talking?

    Is this guy some kind of high scholl boy?
     
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  21. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Understand that Yusuf, but then China has no incentive nor intention to do any of that.

    A power which remains expansionist will never negotiate with a country that hardly challenges them, their mindset doesnt work like that. China will only listen to us the day we are in a position of directly challenging and threatening their interests, and for that our "look-east" policy and how we manoeuvre in the SEA remains paramount.

    If not more, we are still a few decades away before we can sort our problems with them, till then the status quo coupled with our encirclement suits them the best. Important for us is to reply in kind and not look desperate at all for any sort of a solution.

    China is largely irrelevant to us in today's context. Their relevance remains to the extent that the things dont escalate beyond a certain point, and a little cooperation here and there.

    Ought to be the way forward.
     
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