Hatf V Ghauri missile test fails, parts fall on Pakistani village

[Pandora]

sir not everyday such a spicy story comes, specially from Pakistan, when Pakistani says their missiles never ever failed any test. Even their press release says that it was release as planned

Eggactly!!!Saar!!! But Now am feeling sorry about their people,what if the stay near those test range with so much confident as they were feeded with info that Pakistan missiles never fails and hit Bullzeye with CEP accuracy of 0.00000001~....

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

Then How come ISPR reported this as Successful test and added so much info about Hi fandoos Galactic equipment used for this missile test.... Any comments ??

The ISPR has increasingly come under criticizm from even pro-Military commentators, about not providing the public with the correct information when things go bad, whether it is with respect to anti-terrorism operations or a missile test failure.

A degree of ridicule and criticizm is warranted IMO because that should hopefully play a role in overcoming institutional inertia in continuing to offer false accounts about failures, failures that might have been easy to hide in the past when the Pakistani media was not as large and independent an institution as it is now, and when technology such as cell phones with cameras and video recording capabilities were not as widespread and therefore able to capture information refuting official statements.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

So this announcement of "sucess" when in reality it was a failure puts into doubt all other announcements of "sucess" as well.

I would think, given the frequent number of missile tests in recent years, that multiple failures would have resulted in more accounts such as this one. It does appear that the Ghauri has failed several times.

It also appears that that people with access to insider information on such issues are now far more willing to leak the information about failures into the public because, as I mentioned, even pro-military commentators are getting increasingly fed up with the the lack of honesty in information provided to Pakistani citizens, so regardless of ISPR statements, we'll probably find out whether a particular test or military operation was successful or not.

 

[KS]

I would think, given the frequent number of missile tests in recent years, that multiple failures would have resulted in more accounts such as this one. It does appear that the Ghauri has failed several times.

It also appears that that people with access to insider information on such issues are now far more willing to leak the information about failures into the public because, as I mentioned, even pro-military commentators are getting increasingly fed up with the the lack of honesty in information provided to Pakistani citizens, so regardless of ISPR statements, we'll probably find out whether a particular test or military operation was successful or not.

I did not question this test, because logic says that when a the flight control computer fails and falls, the mission is indeed a failure. I was just commenting on the fact that previously announced sucesses which might have been failures too.

I think this is a very dangerous move by the PA to lull the Pakistanis into a false sense of security and thus getting complacent.

Now this also puts into question the supposed sucesses Pak army has had against militants and the numbers being bandied about..i have always wondered that f 40, 50 militants are being in one go how come the insurgency has not been defeated long back ? My guess now is that the ISPR is inflating the number of militants killed while at the same time concealing the number of soldiers killed so that morale of the public does not sink.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

As layman i think missile was working ok till first stage seperation thereafter, looks like bottom part snap off which had flight control computer and small boosters for trejectory correction, so after this that missile would have been no better then fin less rocket and it might had over shoot the target in best possible situation there off, worse could be that RV could have been landed in someone's house killing all or entire village and PA would have blame it on Uncle's UAV. Funny part is that PA never saw it comming or else stupid press release of its successes would not have been release. Even funny part is that tracking and link with missile failed big time and PA had no idea as to what has happen. Only when at night when reports started coming in that some parts are falling from sky, they knew something is wrong. Matter was reported in Media. Then PA waked up and started beautiful cover story about security coridor and missile parts falling as planned.......LOL PA is funny, specially for People of Pak.

Your analysis needs some corrections - the Ghauri is a single stage missile. The only 'stage separation' that occurs is the separation of the warhead from the missile body (which is the section identified in previous images of the missile and its debris). The flight computer and motors will be in the section that is not attached to the warhead. Almost all the navigation work is done by the rocket motors and flight computer prior to warhead separation. The warhead, unless it is a more advanced independently maneuverable re-entry vehicle (in which case it would have its own limited guidance system and fins) then follows a simple projectile path from the point of separation.

The recovery of the main body of the missile and its flight computer therefore does not automatically indicate a test failure - what does appear to point to a test failure (aside from the reports from individuals with sources in the military) is that the military was apparently not expecting to have any debris fall, which might indicate the they expected the main missile body and components to burn up after warhead separation, or if they were expecting debris, guidance failure of the missile caused the debris to fall in an area that they were not expecting it to.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

My guess now is that the ISPR is inflating the number of militants killed while at the same time concealing the number of soldiers killed so that morale of the public does not sink.

That the numbers are not accurate has been suspected for a while, and again, it is something the military has been criticized for (even if not always in public) by many pro-military commentators over the years.

However, potential inconsistencies in the information provided by the ISPR should not detract from the fact that the Swat operation has been a success given the current security situation in the region, as have the various other operations in Bajaur and SW. The infrequent attacks in Swat, Chitral, Bajaur are primarily due to the fact that the TTP factions from those areas were able to regroup in Afghanistan and launch cross-border attacks from there.

 

[sayareakd]

Your analysis needs some corrections - the Ghauri is a single stage missile. The only 'stage separation' that occurs is the separation of the warhead from the missile body (which is the section identified in previous images of the missile and its debris). The flight computer and motors will be in the section that is not attached to the warhead. Almost all the navigation work is done by the rocket motors and flight computer prior to warhead separation. The warhead, unless it is a more advanced independently maneuverable re-entry vehicle (in which case it would have its own limited guidance system and fins) then follows a simple projectile path from the point of separation.

The recovery of the main body of the missile and its flight computer therefore does not automatically indicate a test failure - what does appear to point to a test failure (aside from the reports from individuals with sources in the military) is that the military was apparently not expecting to have any debris fall, which might indicate the they expected the main missile body and components to burn up after warhead separation, or if they were expecting debris, guidance failure of the missile caused the debris to fall in an area that they were not expecting it to.

look at frame 2.34, it has 2nd stage separation, think of it as your first stage (yeah when i said first it means first and only stage) any way, look closely at this pic

and the ball type structure they are cylinders for small boosters, as you have seen in the youtube animation those small rocket pulses keeps the RV to the programme course. Now if you says that it separate then it wont be single stage missile in first place and when you dont have RV guided up to final point.

Ofcourse if you want to say in your bold part that your missile is not that advanced, then be my guest :thumb:

 

[sayareakd]

The recovery of the main body of the missile and its flight computer therefore does not automatically indicate a test failure - what does appear to point to a test failure (aside from the reports from individuals with sources in the military) is that the military was apparently not expecting to have any debris fall, which might indicate the they expected the main missile body and components to burn up after warhead separation, or if they were expecting debris, guidance failure of the missile caused the debris to fall in an area that they were not expecting it to.

Pakistanis are amazing, their flight control computer ditch them in mid flight, still they think it was successful test may be because they learn some madarsa science

equally stupid is the Press release that says

Rawalpindi - November 30, 2012:
A spokesman of ISPR has said that the Hatf V (Ghauri) missile test conducted on Wednesday was a complete success. The missile during its flight remained within the designated flight path and corridor. The metal parts found in a remote area of Dadu, as reported in media today, were part of the motor body, which separated from the missile as planned, well within the safety corridor.

It was ensured that at no point, would human life or property be at risk. There is no cause for alarm or concern, the spokesman concluded.

Please next time name 'flight control computer' as "semi-mid flight control computer (Citizen at your own risk and please wear safety helmets)"

 

[Yusuf]

I did not question this test, because logic says that when a the flight control computer fails and falls, the mission is indeed a failure. I was just commenting on the fact that previously announced sucesses which might have been failures too.

I think this is a very dangerous move by the PA to lull the Pakistanis into a false sense of security and thus getting complacent.

Now this also puts into question the supposed sucesses Pak army has had against militants and the numbers being bandied about..i have always wondered that f 40, 50 militants are being in one go how come the insurgency has not been defeated long back ? My guess now is that the ISPR is inflating the number of militants killed while at the same time concealing the number of soldiers killed so that morale of the public does not sink.

The more appropriate question to ask is ARE THEY killing any militants? We know they are hand in glove waiting for the yanks to pull out and reestablish "strategic depth".

OT for this thread but just an observation.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

look at frame 2.34, it has 2nd stage separation, think of it as your first stage (yeah when i said first it means first and only stage) any way, look closely at this pic

and the ball type structure they are cylinders for small boosters, as you have seen in the youtube animation those small rocket pulses keeps the RV to the programme course. Now if you says that it separate then it wont be single stage missile in first place and when you dont have RV guided up to final point.

Ofcourse if you want to say in your bold part that your missile is not that advanced, then be my guest :thumb:

Those gyros are probably part of the guidance system of the main missile body. Their presence in the main missile body section does not automatically imply that the current warheads Pakistan has are completely 'dumb warheads' without the means of some degree of course-correction using a guidance system and control mechanism build into the warhead.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

The more appropriate question to ask is ARE THEY killing any militants? We know they are hand in glove waiting for the yanks to pull out and reestablish "strategic depth".

OT for this thread but just an observation.

Yes they are eliminating militants, because otherwise, as I pointed out, Pakistan would not be seeing the significantly lower levels of violence in Swat, Bajaur, SW etc. While occasional high profile attacks continue to occur, the levels of violence are down significantly from the 2007 through 2010 period.

And while Pakistan has disagreements with the US over its approach in Afghanistan, it is incorrect to argue that Pakistan is waiting for the US to leave in order to initiate yet another civil war in Afghanistan to re-establish Taliban rule.

 

[Yusuf]

Yes they are eliminating militants, because otherwise, as I pointed out, Pakistan would not be seeing the significantly lower levels of violence in Swat, Bajaur, SW etc. While occasional high profile attacks continue to occur, the levels of violence are down significantly from the 2007 through 2010 period.

And while Pakistan has disagreements with the US over its approach in Afghanistan, it is incorrect to argue that Pakistan is waiting for the US to leave in order to initiate yet another civil war in Afghanistan to re-establish Taliban rule.

Reduction in violence due to secret deals? Good Taliban, Bad Taliban??

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

Reduction in violence due to secret deals? Good Taliban, Bad Taliban??

In that case Mullah FM would still be running Swat openly, as would Maulvi Faqir Mohammed in Bajaur and Hakimullah Mehsud in South Waziristan.

Yes, 'peace deals' have been signed with some Taliban factions (Mullah Nazir in South Waziristan, Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan), but these factions of the Taliban were never really as openly hostile to the Pakistani military as the ones targeted in various military operations in Swat and FATA.

 

[Yusuf]

In that case Mullah FM would still be running Swat openly, as would Maulvi Faqir Mohammed in Bajaur and Hakimullah Mehsud in South Waziristan.

Yes, 'peace deals' have been signed with some Taliban factions (Mullah Nazir in South Waziristan, Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan), but these factions of the Taliban were never really as openly hostile to the Pakistani military as the ones targeted in various military operations in Swat and FATA.

Yiu agree with good Talib bad Talib theory.? Good for Pak in its quest for strategic depth?

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

Yiu agree with good Talib bad Talib theory.? Good for Pak in its quest for strategic depth?

There is a certain lack of understanding of tribal dynamics here.

First, I don't believe there is any policy of 'strategic depth', and has not been for years. Second, even if there was a policy of 'strategic depth', so called 'Good Taliban' like Mullah Nazir and Gul Bahadur would not be able to deliver on it because their factions and their leadership strength within their factions is restricted to their specific tribal areas. Mullah Nazir's men cannot go into North Waziristan without Gul Bahadur's approval (and vice versa) and could not even go into the South Waziristan region of the sub-tribe of Mehsuds that gave Baitullah and Hakimullah Mehsud their power.

To argue that somehow these deeply fractured Pakistan based factions, that barely have any influence outside of their specific tribal domains within FATA, could have influence across the border in Afghanistan is deeply flawed.

 

[sayareakd]

Those gyros are probably part of the guidance system of the main missile body. Their presence in the main missile body section does not automatically imply that the current warheads Pakistan has are completely 'dumb warheads' without the means of some degree of course-correction using a guidance system and control mechanism build into the warhead.

:clobber:

check it again and again

and this

 

[sayareakd]

Pakistani members it is not clear as to where that missile was going from the what ever has come, it was launched from the same launch site as previous tests parts of the RV feel on Dadu so that is point of reference from the launch site. If we draw a line from launch site to Dadu.

This area has industrial centers

What is shocking is the Population density in this area, wonder on what side of arrow that security corridor exists and for what part

Wow! looks like Karachi was the target

 

[johnnyboy]

Let me propose a conspiracy theory... what are the chances that India successfully intercepted this missile?

 

[Yusuf]

Let me propose a conspiracy theory... what are the chances that India successfully intercepted this missile?

I'd say that is a CT

 

[sayareakd]

cross post

unconfirmed reports says that India successfully intercepted Pakistani Ghauri missile through its PDV interceptor, Pakistani missile was tracked from its launch site near Jhelum and it was intercepted in outerspace, since no one can claim its sovereign rights to outer space, therefore this test was within International norms. Pakistani was so ashamed of this BMD test that dont even acknowledge that their missile was intercepted by Indian missile. Later on make believe story was released by PA for public consumption.

PDV a super secret interceptor missile was shown in public, its range is believe to be 400-500 km.