This is basically a study by Strategic Foresight Group which is an excellent Think tank. They have done a number of studies that and have been invited internationally from the Israeli-Palestine conflict to the ME water issue as well as to do work on Islam-West relations. So what this study and article says carries a lot of weight.
The original article a MUST READ is here Forbes India Magazine - The Manual of Counter-Terrorism
An excellent article that gives a fresh perspective on the CT issue.
Below is the interview with the Sundeep on the cover article on Forbes magazine.
Gift of terror: Expert says terrorism adds 6.6% to Pak GDP - CNBC-TV18 -
Sundeep Waslekar is the president of a company that runs a business with a profit margin of 80%, making it arguably the world's most profitable business.
His company, Strategic Foresight Group is a think-tank that advices governments and institutions around the world on five major issues, including terrorism which is one of the critical global challenges.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Waslekar says terror is worth about Rs 264 billion in Pakistan, which is 6.6% of its GDP.
He further accuses that "Pakistan's ISI made a conscious policy decision to extend the theatre of action from Jammu and Kashmir to urban India. They had two objectives - to undermine confidence in India's economy and to weaken the communal fabric of Indian society." The Strategic Foresight Group in 2002 had made a public announcement that the targets of - Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Coimbatore were designed on the said ISI policy.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. For the complete interview watch the accompanying videos.
Q: You say terror is worth Rs 264 billion in Pakistan some time ago and this is 6.6% of the GDP; I suppose that's the more important number. Is this hell of an accusation because you are saying that the Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) is directly involved in terror in India, at a state they sponsor terrorism in India? How do you arrive at this figure?
Waslekar: We have made some calculations about how much money is going into the operations of the various terrorist groups in Pakistan. We made some very detailed calculations about how much is spent on armament and their upkeep. That came to about Rs 80 billion some years ago. About Rs 24 billion were spent on ISI's own upkeep for managing these terrorist outfits.
Accounting was also done for their share in the poppy cultivation business in Afghanistan and this is a visible part. There is a invisible part of ISI's involvement in Pakistan's black economy.
All this comes to about 6.6% of GDP, we call this gross terror economy product (GTP) of Pakistan. I don't think it has changed much. The absolute numbers would have changed in the last few years, but overall share in the GDP continues to be more or less the same.
Q: Are you clear that there is evidence linking Pakistani terror in India?
Waslekar: Everybody knows that ISI made a very conscious policy decision around 2001-2002 to extend the theatre of action from Jammu and Kashmir to urban India. They had two objectives at that time. One was to undermine confidence in India's economy and second was to try to undermine the communal fabric of Indian society.
With these objectives they decided to target five cities; Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Coimbatore. We announced this very publicly in Strategic Foresight Group in 2002. Since then four of these five cities have experience very significant attacks.
Q: What made you put terror on the cover?
Sivabalan: After the July 13 attacks in Mumbai there was a big debate in the office and what is going to be our response to this. We decided to do brainstorming session with Sundeep who has written for us earlier on strategic affairs and international conflicts. We had long session where we asked him two questions fundamentally.
We asked why is India not able to stop terror attacks and will this happen again? The answer was a bit chilling to us. He said, given the current conditions it is probable that there could be more attacks in the future. He also said that there are some structural imbalances and myths surrounding the whole debate about terrorism in India.
These are on the part of the common people, policymakers and the thought leaders which kind of weakens our response to terrorism. If we can burst those myths and tell people how the terror business works and how we can respond to it more effectively, would be value addition.
Q: What are the foremost myths that should be busted?
Waslekar: Terrorism functions like a market. It has its demand and it has its supply. The supply curve is made of three imbalances; developmental imbalance, democratic imbalance and dignity imbalance. Dignity imbalance is the most significant of the three. This is what generates the supply of young people who are willing to offer themselves as fodder for terrorist attacks.
Demand is placed by vested interest and they are always organised. They can be state agency like ISI or organised group like the Naxalite group, etc. People on the demand side use religion or ideology as instruments to mobilise those on the supply side.
Q: Are you saying government then showed attack on the supply side because that's perhaps little easier? Is this because attacking demand side is attacking terrorism with force, attacking supply side is attacking civil society?
Waslekar: The government and even the society going beyond government need to deal with both the demand and supply. If you address only one of the two curves you would be very inadequate in your effort.
Sivabalan: Working on the demand side that is the people, the organised interest who create a terror need not be by force. It can be diplomatic and economic. We can use our economic muscle to kind of prevail upon our forces outside our country to refrain themselves. There are examples around the world where people have worked on the demand side without firing a single bullet by bringing together people.
See the full interview on video here
http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/c...says-terrorism-adds-66-to-pak-gdp_573699.html
The original article a MUST READ is here Forbes India Magazine - The Manual of Counter-Terrorism
An excellent article that gives a fresh perspective on the CT issue.
Below is the interview with the Sundeep on the cover article on Forbes magazine.
Gift of terror: Expert says terrorism adds 6.6% to Pak GDP - CNBC-TV18 -
Sundeep Waslekar is the president of a company that runs a business with a profit margin of 80%, making it arguably the world's most profitable business.
His company, Strategic Foresight Group is a think-tank that advices governments and institutions around the world on five major issues, including terrorism which is one of the critical global challenges.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Waslekar says terror is worth about Rs 264 billion in Pakistan, which is 6.6% of its GDP.
He further accuses that "Pakistan's ISI made a conscious policy decision to extend the theatre of action from Jammu and Kashmir to urban India. They had two objectives - to undermine confidence in India's economy and to weaken the communal fabric of Indian society." The Strategic Foresight Group in 2002 had made a public announcement that the targets of - Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Coimbatore were designed on the said ISI policy.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. For the complete interview watch the accompanying videos.
Q: You say terror is worth Rs 264 billion in Pakistan some time ago and this is 6.6% of the GDP; I suppose that's the more important number. Is this hell of an accusation because you are saying that the Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) is directly involved in terror in India, at a state they sponsor terrorism in India? How do you arrive at this figure?
Waslekar: We have made some calculations about how much money is going into the operations of the various terrorist groups in Pakistan. We made some very detailed calculations about how much is spent on armament and their upkeep. That came to about Rs 80 billion some years ago. About Rs 24 billion were spent on ISI's own upkeep for managing these terrorist outfits.
Accounting was also done for their share in the poppy cultivation business in Afghanistan and this is a visible part. There is a invisible part of ISI's involvement in Pakistan's black economy.
All this comes to about 6.6% of GDP, we call this gross terror economy product (GTP) of Pakistan. I don't think it has changed much. The absolute numbers would have changed in the last few years, but overall share in the GDP continues to be more or less the same.
Q: Are you clear that there is evidence linking Pakistani terror in India?
Waslekar: Everybody knows that ISI made a very conscious policy decision around 2001-2002 to extend the theatre of action from Jammu and Kashmir to urban India. They had two objectives at that time. One was to undermine confidence in India's economy and second was to try to undermine the communal fabric of Indian society.
With these objectives they decided to target five cities; Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Coimbatore. We announced this very publicly in Strategic Foresight Group in 2002. Since then four of these five cities have experience very significant attacks.
Q: What made you put terror on the cover?
Sivabalan: After the July 13 attacks in Mumbai there was a big debate in the office and what is going to be our response to this. We decided to do brainstorming session with Sundeep who has written for us earlier on strategic affairs and international conflicts. We had long session where we asked him two questions fundamentally.
We asked why is India not able to stop terror attacks and will this happen again? The answer was a bit chilling to us. He said, given the current conditions it is probable that there could be more attacks in the future. He also said that there are some structural imbalances and myths surrounding the whole debate about terrorism in India.
These are on the part of the common people, policymakers and the thought leaders which kind of weakens our response to terrorism. If we can burst those myths and tell people how the terror business works and how we can respond to it more effectively, would be value addition.
Q: What are the foremost myths that should be busted?
Waslekar: Terrorism functions like a market. It has its demand and it has its supply. The supply curve is made of three imbalances; developmental imbalance, democratic imbalance and dignity imbalance. Dignity imbalance is the most significant of the three. This is what generates the supply of young people who are willing to offer themselves as fodder for terrorist attacks.
Demand is placed by vested interest and they are always organised. They can be state agency like ISI or organised group like the Naxalite group, etc. People on the demand side use religion or ideology as instruments to mobilise those on the supply side.
Q: Are you saying government then showed attack on the supply side because that's perhaps little easier? Is this because attacking demand side is attacking terrorism with force, attacking supply side is attacking civil society?
Waslekar: The government and even the society going beyond government need to deal with both the demand and supply. If you address only one of the two curves you would be very inadequate in your effort.
Sivabalan: Working on the demand side that is the people, the organised interest who create a terror need not be by force. It can be diplomatic and economic. We can use our economic muscle to kind of prevail upon our forces outside our country to refrain themselves. There are examples around the world where people have worked on the demand side without firing a single bullet by bringing together people.
See the full interview on video here
http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/c...says-terrorism-adds-66-to-pak-gdp_573699.html
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