Former ranking naval officers flay Oz efforts to buy new submarines

[p2prada]

They are selling U2 military flying boats to India.

Yes, and it is not a weapons system. It is a SAR aircraft.

I am talking about selling weapons. Each country has a different perception on what it will sell and what it won't.

The Americans sell offensive weapons platforms, but they make you sign a clause saying you won't use it on foreign soil in an offensive mission, like the USS Trenton. The Israelis make no distinction, while Germans won't sell you weapons at all. I mean the Germans will sell you engines or tracks for a tank, but they won't sell the guns or the shells. As of last year, the Japanese did not sell anything linked to the military.

They made the US-2 deal an exception through loopholes. The same cannot be done for a purely offensive weapons system like the Soryu without actual changes in their export regulations. And it is yet to be seen if they will provide complete freedom in using the weapons like the Israelis do or bring in regulations like the US. If they do what the Germans do then a country like India will have no chance of buying Soryu while Australia will. The Germans don't sell weapons to a country that has a chance of going to war.

 

[Ray]

I believe we are getting the military version of the U2

Japanese defence officials have said the planned sale of the US-2 to India to fulfill the IN's requirement for nine amphibious aircraft would not infringe its ban on arms exports because the aircraft is a dual-use, unarmed platform.
Japan, India agree to push for US-2 amphibian deal - IHS Jane's 360

 

[p2prada]

Re: Former ranking naval officers flay Oz efforts to buy new submarine

I believe we are getting the military version of the U2

It is the US-2 actually.

The reason we are able to get hold of it is because it is a dual use aircraft. That's the loophole right there. Similarly we can also buy trucks, jeeps and other dual use vehicles. The link you posted explains just that. Basically, as far as Japanese law is concerned, they are selling civilian technology to the Indian Navy.

As of today no country is qualified to buy weapons from Japan. There are a lot of hurdles to cross before the Japanese start exporting weapons. And that will start by amending the constitution.

First they may start with amending the constitution that allows export of weapons in a case by case basis, like the Australian Soryu. This should be followed by an amendment that allows sale of weapons to allies. After one or two decades they may finally amend the laws enough to sell weapons to India. IMHO, if you are waiting for the Japanese to start selling weapons to India, you are in for a very long wait.

 

[apple]

Re: Former high-ranking naval officers flay efforts to buy new submari

The Navy preferred Japanese subs. I guess.

In current situation, looking at Asia-Pacific region, the Japanese subs are the best option.



The new German subs by TKMS, type 216 is a project, they didn't build any of type 216 yet, but it supposed to be a long range conventional submarine.

There were two options, one improved Collins class or second all new sub.

But they preferred all new subs.




The problem with Virginia class is they are SSN, a nuke powered sub.

The US offered Virginia class. Lease them or make it at home, Aus version with the help of US companies like Bechtel and GDEB.

But nuke needs special maintenance capabilities, because of no civilian/military nuke projects in the country, govt didn't considered it at all as an option.

But the ex navy officer was looking at long range submarine, so only two things can be possible, either German subs or SSN.

So I took both in my post.

Forgot that Virginia class was nuclear powered... Yes, we wont be getting those. Aren't that into naval stuff. But, apart from the political ramifications of nuclear power, understand that nuclear submarines are, due to their power system, inherently, more noisy than other subs. Which is reason 2 we're not interested

His view is valid. The Soryu is a hotchpotch of various systems from different countries.

The engines and AIP is from Sweden. Radar and sonars are from US and Germany companies. A lot of parts are just imported and then assembled in Japan.

So, when you want to build a version that you want you will have to negotiate with all these countries. And submarine configurations are extremely complex and will take a long time to negotiate. Training of new crews is affected if compromises are made. And a glitch in training can be disastrous as we recently witnessed in India.

Even I prefer a European solution which is wholly sourced from the same country. The European jugaad in building something to suit a particular requirement is very high. They almost always deliver. The same cannot be said of the Japanese.

What's also important to consider is that the Japanese are developing a newer class of submarines. The JMSDF plan to use the Soryu only for 20 years. So the Australians will end up being the sole operators of the submarine for the remaining 20 years. And this is considering the Japanese have designed the Soryu for a full 40 year life cycle. If that is not so, then it puts serious doubts on the capability of a submarine designed for only a 20 year life.

There are far too many risks in such a case. The Australians are better off with the new German Type 216 since they want range and endurance.

The Collins class has taken classified technology from all sorts of countries. It's the reason why we can't sell them as we've signed confidentiality agreements on the restricted technology.

Australia has a good reputation, internationally. Countries trust us and we follow through on agreements. Technically advanced projects are best done using a variety of sources.

The Collins class used a lot of European technology and "they" most definitely didn't deliver on time. Not sure where you got the idea that the Japanese don't deliver on time...

The Japanese are venturing out to the world of exports for the first time. Their laws will have to be modified and new laws will have to be enacted. This is obviously going to take time. But there is a lot of room for making these changes.

That's a good point. But the subs wont be delivered till 2030, which should be long enough for the Japanese to sort out their laws. Conversely, it's so long away they may change their decision, which would be a disaster

 

[p2prada]

Re: Former high-ranking naval officers flay efforts to buy new submari

Not sure where you got the idea that the Japanese don't deliver on time...

I was not referring to time, I was referring to their ability to deliver at all. This is considering the Australian requirements are different from Japanese.

The Japanese are yet to learn how different the export market is, how every country has its own procedure and how every navy operates differently. So the companies will have to be prepared to work differently from what they are used to. The Europeans are champions at this.

You are already aware of the Gorshkov fiasco. That was the Russians working on something for the first time. And they messed up, even if they did eventually deliver. So the Soryu is an equally high risk venture, especially if Australia plans on getting Aussie specific equipment from Europe for integration.

That's a good point. But the subs wont be delivered till 2030, which should be long enough for the Japanese to sort out their laws. Conversely, it's so long away they may change their decision, which would be a disaster

The Type 216 is a less risky venture, and you know for sure you are getting good value for your money. The Germans are more akin to deliver an Aussie specific sub faster than the Japanese can configure an Aussie specific Soryu.

But I'm sure the Aussie brass already knows this and is aware of the risks.

 

[apple]

Re: Former high-ranking naval officers flay efforts to buy new submari

I was not referring to time, I was referring to their ability to deliver at all. This is considering the Australian requirements are different from Japanese.

The Japanese are yet to learn how different the export market is, how every country has its own procedure and how every navy operates differently. So the companies will have to be prepared to work differently from what they are used to. The Europeans are champions at this.

You are already aware of the Gorshkov fiasco. That was the Russians working on something for the first time. And they messed up, even if they did eventually deliver. So the Soryu is an equally high risk venture, especially if Australia plans on getting Aussie specific equipment from Europe for integration.



The Type 216 is a less risky venture, and you know for sure you are getting good value for your money. The Germans are more akin to deliver an Aussie specific sub faster than the Japanese can configure an Aussie specific Soryu.

But I'm sure the Aussie brass already knows this and is aware of the risks.

Your point about Japan having no experience in selling weapon systems, I agree with.

But, the Germans (presumed you are talking about Kockums) haven't delivered what we required, in the past...

I see your argument as being as proven failure is better than a potential failure.

And (hopefully) without bringing down the wrath of this forum's Little Russian's, Australia doesn't do business with 3rd. rate cheap criminals like Russia. The Gorshov "project" would be more accurately described as: Russia extorts the Indian military part 72. I don't really see it as relevant

 

[p2prada]

Re: Former high-ranking naval officers flay efforts to buy new submari

But, the Germans (presumed you are talking about Kockums) haven't delivered what we required, in the past...

Kockums is Swedish, even if TKMS bought it. You will be dealing with TKMS directly if you go for German.

Soryu uses propulsion and AIP that's supplied by Kockums. So you can't really be complaining about this.

I see your argument as being as proven failure is better than a potential failure.

No quite accurate. Singapore's navy has already already placed orders for the Type 218, which should be in a similar class as the Soryu. The first delivery is expected in 2020. The Germans are a far better option than the Japanese in that respect. The initial teething issues should be take care of by the time Australia gets the first submarine.

Singapore’s Type-218SG – Forerunner of a new Submarine Class? | Defense Update:

Germany's Defense Industry Turns to Asia for Business - SPIEGEL ONLINE

At the end of November, Singapore, an authoritarian city-state on the edge of the crisis regions of the West Pacific, ordered the first two Type 218SG submarines to be released by German firm ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). The custom-designed machines are to be delivered to the Singapore Navy by 2020. The deal cost the country €1.6 billion ($2.18 billion), which will go directly into the German economy.

So you are looking at proven capability, rather than potential failure or proven failure. With the Soryu, you are looking at an existing design, but with the Type 218 you are looking at a much more futuristic design. What's more important is while the Soryu will be decommissioned by the Japanese in the next 20 years, Type 218 will continue functioning with other navies around the world well beyond 2050. The Germans are sure to score more customers as time goes on.

 

[Zebra]

Re: Former high-ranking naval officers flay efforts to buy new submari

Sir, a lot of wrong information are there on different very famous web sites about Soryu class submarines.

On top of it the manufacturers and the operators they also kept tight lipped on it.

Japan is manufacturing this AIP at home.

Let us see what a (Retd) Commodore say about it......Conventional Submarine Propulsion�Overcoming the Challenge - SP's Naval Forces

The other day, I saw one more source let me dig it out again.

@Ray sir,

Kockums Stirling AIP used by Japan - Kockums

It says...

License manufacturing at Kawasaki

Kockums has an agreement with Kawasaki Heavy Industry for license production of Stirling engines for the Oyashio class submarines of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Forse (JMSDF).

In 2001, the Harushio class submarine Asashio was modified with the addition of a 9-meter plug containing a Stirling engine for testing. All tests were completed in 2003 and the decision was made to move forward with the Improved Oyashio class. In 2004, the JMSDF funded the first unit of the class that would follow the eleventh Oyashio class submarine that was already under construction.

 

[Zebra]

Re: Former ranking naval officers flay Oz efforts to buy new submarine

Japan To Make Major Switch on Sub Propulsion | Defense News | defensenews.com

Japan To Make Major Switch on Sub Propulsion

Lithium-ion Batteries Will Power Soryu-class Boats

Sep. 29, 2014 - 03:45AM | By PAUL KALLENDER-UMEZU