Facing an Aggressive China, Japan's Abe May Turn to Taiwan

Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by Ray, Jan 5, 2013.

  1. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,117
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    TAIPEI -- Relations with Taiwan might not be high on the list of priorities for incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, given the dismal state of the Japanese economy. However, continued tensions with Beijing could make Taipei a valuable partner for Tokyo. Yet it’s uncertain whether Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s Kuomintang (KMT) government will be receptive to potential opportunities to improve relations with Japan.

    After his election, Abe was quick in promising to mend ties with mainland China. Tokyo-Beijing relations are the worst they have been in decades due to the dispute over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which were nationalized by Japan last year but are claimed by both China and Taiwan as the Diaoyu and Diaoyutai, respectively. The notion that the issue can be resolved anytime soon, however, as Abe's pledge implies, seems to be wishful thinking, as Tokyo cannot unilaterally control the direction the territorial dispute takes. ...

    WPR Article | Facing an Aggressive China, Japan's Abe May Turn to Taiwan
     
  2.  
  3. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,117
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    How Beijing Sees Abe’s Return


    An Xinhua editorial that also appeared in the U.S. edition of the China Daily asserts that the impending premiership of Japan’s Shinzo Abe would “destabilize” East Asia. Yet the piece in reality makes a case for why Abe’s next term in office would be a good thing. To quote from the article:

    "…Abe has called for an increase in Japan's defense spending, easing constitutional restrictions on the military and even changing Japan's so-called Self Defense Forces into a full-fledged military.

    Abe is likely to push through several changes with little opposition, including abolishing the requirement for a separate new law each time Japan wants to send peacekeepers abroad and establishing a National Security Council to streamline decision-making, which was a primary, though eventually unrealized, goal of Abe's previous administration."

    The editorial also rightly notes that “for the first time in decades, national defense played a significant role in Japan's general election,” yet refrains from listing the reasons for this, namely North Korea’s renewed belligerence and the on-going crisis over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands between China and Japan.

    But Xinhua gets the big picture right, namely that Abe is likely to make Japan a more “normal” nation, to use a once-popular phrase. This means a more rational national security decision making process and a military that can be more easily dispatched abroad for collective self-defense (instead of the current cumbersome situation in which each overseas deployment requires a special law to be passed). He indeed may also attempt to increase the defense budget, which has been trending downward for nearly a decade.

    Clearly, Beijing would not be amused by a stronger, less-constrained, more confident Japan. But much of the rest of Asia wouldn’t mind. There might be grumbling over Japan’s failure to fully account for its wartime atrocities (and Abe has been on the wrong side of this in the past), but most smaller nations are eager for Tokyo to become a counterweight to China. They may make this case quietly (or in the case of the Philippines, not so quietly), but a stronger Japan that remained closely wedded to the United States would likely be welcomed by states that have territorial disputes with China or worry about the growing presence of the PLA Navy in the region’s common waters.

    Where Abe could make a real difference would be in proposing some significant public goods provisions by Japan, in addition to merely building up Japan’s military strength. Working more closely with regional coast guards on training or further revising the arms export law to allow for sales to Southeast Asian nations could help them build up their own capabilities. A greater maritime presence in the East China Sea and perhaps more partnering on training patrols in the South China Sea would answer many of the calls by Hanoi and Manila for a bigger Japanese presence.

    Beijing would only see this as an attempt by Tokyo to contain China, which is fantasy, given the disparity in size between the two militaries. Yet it speaks volumes about Beijing’s assessment of its own isolation, and Japan’s potential strength, that it takes so seriously such modest attempts at reform. It would be refreshing if China welcomed Japan’s larger role as one that can contribute to regional stability, in part by reducing the chance of miscalculation by countries that believe they can intimidate smaller nations into surrendering their national claims. Of course, since that currently seems to apply mainly to China, there’s little chance Asia’s two giants will grope their way to a more productive relationship, even by accident.

    How Beijing Sees Abe’s Return
     
  4. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,117
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    While Japan would not like to upset the apple cart, it will also not take the Chinese cleverer by half historical untruth with fudged history as the Gospel, now that Abe has take charge.

    There sure would be uncertain times in East Asia and of that there is no doubt.

    Abe is said to be independent minded and one wonders if the US' influence to calm troubled waters will hold good, given that China has unilaterally taken a very tough and hostile stance towards Japan to include near rioting against Japanese actions.

    Japan will increase their defencee spending, easing constitutional restrictions on the military and even changing Japan's so-called Self Defense Forces into a full-fledged military.

    That sure will spook China and create tensions which will be a boost to the nations on China's periphery and make result in a congregated muscle flexing to counter Chinese saber rattling that she has resorted to repeatedly these days.

    The new Japanese dispensation will only add to the tightening of the noose around China, initiated by the US.

    Difficult times is foreseen!
     
  5. s002wjh

    s002wjh Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2009
    Messages:
    1,209
    Likes Received:
    126
    if i recall, taiwan also claim the island, they even had incident with japan few month back involving the claim.
     
  6. xizhimen

    xizhimen Regular Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    24
    Exactly,Mainlanders and Taiwanese activist actually landed the island together on the same ship,carring their respective flags though.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. xizhimen

    xizhimen Regular Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    24
    Taiwan anti-Japan demonstrations
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  8. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    3,174
    Likes Received:
    422
    Basically, you can ignore any political or economic comment from Ray regarding the cases outside south asia.

    The best he can do is: collecting a lot of news, papers from internet, then paste them here without even think of it.
     
  9. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    Maybe, but someone who reads a lot of news and commentary is knowledgable in their own right.
     
  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2010
    Messages:
    5,524
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    That's like a yo-yo. When China exerts more pressure on Japan, Japan comes to the fishery talks likely with more concessions to Taiwan for fear that TW may join hands with Mainland on Diaoyutai. An interesting triangle interactions.
     
  11. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    3,174
    Likes Received:
    422
    Only after you THINK what you read!
     

Share This Page