Face-off in South China

[Yusuf]

Major,
understood sir. I was replying in the context of sohams question about use of Chinese air assets in the mallacas in any future conflict, if at all.

 

[deltacamelately]

Never mind that. That is not important.

Now, you will have to do some research here, specifically, checking the Chengdu, Langzhou, and Beijing Military Regions. How many divisions can the Chinese move in 30 days?

How many can India move?

Sir,

If Guangzhou MR is not moving any Divisions, I don't really see how the Beizing MR will get bothered. And then you don't really discount the 15ABC.

India in about the same time will not move anything more than 2-4 Divisions.

 

[deltacamelately]

China cannot stop the oil supply to India since the IOR is a US preserve!

Sir,

China doesn't has a Navy that can effect a blockade kind of move. But inspite of the IOR being a US preserve and its navy being the mightiest navy in the region, what stops Chinese Diesel AIP subs from knocking off tankers flagged for India?

 

[Yusuf]

Sir,

China doesn't has a Navy that can effect a blockade kind of move. But inspite of the IOR being a US preserve and its navy being the mightiest navy in the region, what stops Chinese Diesel AIP subs from knocking off tankers flagged for India?

Major,
Will the US allow Chinese sub to operate with impunity in IOR?
Also indian aquisition of ASW platforms will be quite potent in the event of any hostility.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

If Guangzhou MR is not moving any Divisions, I don't really see how the Beizing MR will get bothered.

The 38GA and the 39GA are the only two corps size HQs that still trains at the corps level. While the CMC HQ has been grabbing alot of press lately about theatre command, the fact was that they were stripping the 38GA and the 39GA of their Staffs for a lot of their exercises.

Thus, it would be natural for the 38GA to grab one of their divisions with them.

And then you don't really discount the 15ABC.

15ABC directly answers to the CMC HQ and does not belong to any MR.

India in about the same time will not move anything more than 2-4 Divisions.

Well, gee Major, now that you've done the research for the poor boy.

Tell me, Sohamsi, what would an Indian victory at the Malaca Straits do to prevent this movement?

Don't go into the combat yet, that is not an issue with my questions just yet. What would an Indian victory at the Malaca Straits prevent this mass movement of troops?

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Major,
Will the US allow Chinese sub to operate with impunity in IOR?
Also indian aquisition of ASW platforms will be quite potent in the event of any hostility.

You need at least 10 years of training and operational experience before your ASW is effective. As of right now, the InN don't know a whale from a MING mainly because you don't know what a MING sounds like.

 

[Yusuf]

You need at least 10 years of training and operational experience before your ASW is effective. As of right now, the InN don't know a whale from a MING mainly because you don't know what a MING sounds like.

IN is at it Sir. The recent incident of an indian sub shadowing the Chinese boats near the gulf is an example.

On the question of knowing a boats accoustic signature, is it shared around with allies? I'm sure it is. If so what are the chances of India getting info on chinese boats from the US?

 

[Soham]

instead of keep bugging us for the answers.

Sir,
I'm sorry if you feel that way, but there's no-one else I could ask. None of my friends give a damn about the military, they are busy dreaming about MBAs in Harvard, none of my relatives serve in the Armed Forces, my teachers say that if the French had built the Maginot Line right, the axis powers would never have had a chance, and my parents tell me to study instead of wasting time on the internet. So you see ? There's no-one else really except you, the Brigadier and the Major.

The 38GA and the 39GA are the only two corps size HQs that still trains at the corps level. While the CMC HQ has been grabbing alot of press lately about theatre command, the fact was that they were stripping the 38GA and the 39GA of their Staffs for a lot of their exercises.

Thus, it would be natural for the 38GA to grab one of their divisions with them.

15ABC directly answers to the CMC HQ and does not belong to any MR.

Well, gee Major, now that you've done the research for the poor boy.

Tell me, Sohamsi, what would an Indian victory at the Malaca Straits do to prevent this movement?

Don't go into the combat yet, that is not an issue with my questions just yet. What would an Indian victory at the Malaca Straits prevent this mass movement of troops?

Nothing sir. Since you tell me not to get into combat, i wouldn't mention the fact that the blockade would put a question mark on the sustainment of such an operation.

 

[Soham]

IN is at it Sir. The recent incident of an indian sub shadowing the Chinese boats near the gulf is an example.

On the question of knowing a boats accoustic signature, is it shared around with allies? I'm sure it is. If so what are the chances of India getting info on chinese boats from the US?

We aren't really US allies. They might share it with NATO countries. I don't see why they'll share the radar signatures with us.

 

[Payeng]

When are the ming whales operating in IOR:twizt:

 

[Officer of Engineers]

IN is at it Sir. The recent incident of an indian sub shadowing the Chinese boats near the gulf is an example.

Destroyers. Until your collectors get close to their subs, you wouldn't know what they sound like.

On the question of knowing a boats accoustic signature, is it shared around with allies?

No, it's not. There is absolutely no reason why you should the signature of an LA Class Attack sub and even amongst allies, they will let us know a sub is in our area and we collect their signature rather than let us know.

Further more, some signatures, if given, tantamounts to Acts of War. American subs were sitting inside Soviet territorial waters (and inside Chinese waters), collecting signautres of Soviet subs that never left their home waters. There is absolutely no reason why anyone but the Americans should know that.

I'm sure it is. If so what are the chances of India getting info on chinese boats from the US?

None. You're not even an ally.

 

[Antimony]

Trying to asnwer Col. OOEs Question

Never mind that. That is not important.

Now, you will have to do some research here, specifically, checking the Chengdu, Langzhou, and Beijing Military Regions. How many divisions can the Chinese move in 30 days?

How many can India move?

From an article published in UPI Asia.com, PLA would be able to transport approximately 10 light mechanized divisions and some heavy mechanized divisions through the railroad to Tibet from the Lanzhou and Chengdu Military Regions within 30 days

The article cites the Qinghai-Tibet railroad as a major comm. link for troop movements.
Here is the link

PLA's rapid reaction capability in Tibet - upiasia.com

Furthermore, China has ben carrying out some exercises with really large troop movements. There is one going on right now - Stride 2009

Stride--2009--- China's Largest Ever Long-Range Military Exercise

I feel just a teensy bit threatened, given that all we will manage is 2-4 divisions

I do not know how much the credibility the UPI article has, though. Apparently the writer Andei Chang is widely derided in some quarters for relying too much on Russian sources for info on the PLA

 

[Officer of Engineers]

From an article published in UPI Asia.com, PLA would be able to transport approximately 10 light mechanized divisions and some heavy mechanized divisions through the railroad to Tibet from the Lanzhou and Chengdu Military Regions within 30 days

The article cites the Qinghai-Tibet railroad as a major comm. link for troop movements.
Here is the link

PLA's rapid reaction capability in Tibet - upiasia.com

Ah A Chiang, aka Pinkov, the man who almost singlehandily established Adobe Photoshop as the biggest arms manufacturer in China. As a result, he was fired from JDW for being a spokesman for that factory.

You know where I'm going with this. Reduce divisions to bdes/regts and it might start to make sense.

Furthermore, China has ben carrying out some exercises with really large troop movements. There is one going on right now - Stride 2009

Stride--2009--- China's Largest Ever Long-Range Military Exercise

I feel just a teensy bit threatened, given that all we will manage is 2-4 divisions

What the article failed to mention is that the exercises already include BLUE ARMY, ie they don't have to travel. That's 4 regts/bdes that you can chop off right there.

The Chinese, in reality, cannot manage more than 2-4 divisions with the 15ABC adding the first hits. So, around 5-6 divisions max.

 

[roma]

Officer of Engineers ....this debate is admittedly a bit above me ....only to observe ..... india not an allay of the US .... yeah , except that George W said " india is an ally right up there with Japan and South Korea, " ... and we recall him saying that " India stands shoulder to shoulder with the US ( in the war against terrorism ) ... wonder what his words are worth .... the words of a recent (ex) president ... are such words worth anything in sharing any info when push comes to shove ?

 

[Yusuf]

Colonel,
Agreed that India is not on the same footing as say the UK in it's relations with the US. But the recent bonhomie esp military contacts are on a rise. We have an agreement on joint patrols in IOR esp the Mallaccas.

The US may have good relations with China, but it sure doesn't want it to come anywhere close to challenge it's pre eminence in the global scheme of things. Would it not share info on Chinese subs and how would the Chinese know that the Americans have given India their signature to be seen as an act of war? It helps the US to help India keep the Chinese in check.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Officer of Engineers ....this debate is admittedly a bit above me ....only to observe ..... india not an allay of the US .... yeah , except that George W said " india is an ally right up there with Japan and South Korea, " ... and we recall him saying that " India stands shoulder to shoulder with the US ( in the war against terrorism ) ... wonder what his words are worth .... the words of a recent (ex) president ... are such words worth anything in sharing any info when push comes to shove ?

India does not have an Alliance Treaty with the US. Both South Korea and Japan have signed treaty obligations with the US.

Colonel,
Agreed that India is not on the same footing as say the UK in it's relations with the US. But the recent bonhomie esp military contacts are on a rise. We have an agreement on joint patrols in IOR esp the Mallaccas.

The US does not even share its accoustic database with the UK.

how would the Chinese know that the Americans have given India their signature to be seen as an act of war?

It is an Act of War for an American warship to be in Chinese territeriol waters (real ones, not the EEZ) without Chinese permission.

 

[Yusuf]

.
The US does not even share its accoustic database with the UK.

what holds it from doing so? It's not going to harm it in anyway and it's not going to be detriment to it's security interest? Perhaps it sharing it with friends will make more sense as others too will track hostile boats and share information.
One point that comes to mind is that what if information is leaked? So I would like to know if a boats signatures can be modified in anyway to fool the enemy?

 

[Antimony]

Ah A Chiang, aka Pinkov, the man who almost singlehandily established Adobe Photoshop as the biggest arms manufacturer in China. As a result, he was fired from JDW for being a spokesman for that factory.

You know where I'm going with this. Reduce divisions to bdes/regts and it might start to make sense.

Ok, that's some exaggeration

The Chinese, in reality, cannot manage more than 2-4 divisions with the 15ABC adding the first hits. So, around 5-6 divisions max.

So, anything from a worst case scenario of being out matched 3:1 (6 div vs, 2) to nearly matched (5 div : 4 div). If the IAF manage to do their job and gain superiority, at least at the beginning of the conflict and do some damage to the railroad networks on the Tibetan side, maybe a bit better for us.

All in all, given the terrain, I suspect we are setting up the stage for a bloody shooting match where noone gains ground

 

[Officer of Engineers]

what holds it from doing so?

It's a need-to-know and most of the accousitic signatures, ie the boomers both freindly and hostile, the allies do not need-to-know. Canadian and British ASW was never be in a position to hunt Soviet boomers. And the Americans do not like anyone knowing their own boomer signatures.

Those signatures we need-to-know, we have already collected on our own.

So I would like to know if a boats signatures can be modified in anyway to fool the enemy?

Signatures changes everytime a boat goes into drydock. So, it would have to be re-recorded.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Ok, that's some exaggeration

It's Pinkov. He has a very bad reputation amongst China watchers. He even plagerized my article and got paid for it.

So, anything from a worst case scenario of being out matched 3:1 (6 div vs, 2) to nearly matched (5 div : 4 div). If the IAF manage to do their job and gain superiority, at least at the beginning of the conflict and do some damage to the railroad networks on the Tibetan side, maybe a bit better for us.

The terrain is a great equalizer. I really don't see anywhere except on the Tibettan plateau where a battle of annhilation could be fought and I doubt the Indian Army is that stupid to try to march to Lhasa.