Expect a Chinese attack by June/July!

Ray

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I will not argue if CHina will attack India or not - I am just curious about the time line mentioned by Col Anil Athale. Why June/ July?
- The monsoon rains will make life miserable for the attacker, landslides cut off roads, rations get destroyed, the rivers are in spate.
- If they use Pak Army, then armour cannot be used due to the soggy ground.
- The June/ July time line gives the IA enough time to recover and counter-attack across the border at a place of own choosing.

- The likely time line would be Oct/ Nov - to hit hard and pull back so that the winter snow blocks the passes and limits the counter-action from IA, preventing any further escalation of the conflict.
May/Jun/Jul is when the Passes open.

Mid Oct/Nov, they close.

But, the fact that you mention of Oct being good for quick shot and then move back to take the advantage of the Passes closing is also on the cards.

The only issue is that what if the IA also gives a tight slap and so China will be left red faced and so could it require a larger timeframe to ensure that they are not left with a red face and do some face saving before hightailing it?
 
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Kunal Biswas

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One must accept the situation, His views are not very wrong..

1. The PLA Strength is good in other side supplemented with SF brigades along LAC..
2. They have been practicing Blitz style Offensive doctrine Over Mountains areas since 1997..
3. They have constructed more than 5-6 airbases to support Ground offensive mainly CAS..
4. They are continually developing ' Terrain specific ' weaponry for TAR region..


Where as we recently did is increase troop strength, we are issuing RFI which are very lengthy process and keep failing to archive its objectives, We are not doing anything improvise with hardware we already have to counter the situation either..

In other words existing Troops are well placed not the newer troops and with the weaponry which are there but not suited to the battlefield reqirments..



IA army is heavy relaying on IAF too, Its the IAF who can stop the offence if it occours..
 

Bhadra

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I will not argue if CHina will attack India or not - I am just curious about the time line mentioned by Col Anil Athale. Why June/ July?
- The monsoon rains will make life miserable for the attacker, landslides cut off roads, rations get destroyed, the rivers are in spate.
- If they use Pak Army, then armour cannot be used due to the soggy ground.
- The June/ July time line gives the IA enough time to recover and counter-attack across the border at a place of own choosing.

- The likely time line would be Oct/ Nov - to hit hard and pull back so that the winter snow blocks the passes and limits the counter-action from IA, preventing any further escalation of the conflict.


Because by then the Jupiter would have entered Taurus. Ha Ha Ha...
 

Oracle

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War mongering...................................

Biggest trade partners won't get into full fledged war over a border dispute.
You are right on that one. However I am of the view that the Colonel is asking the GoI to modernize the IA and do that on a fast track. We all know the policy paralysis of successive G'soI on each and every front. You need to create fear in order for the Government to wake up from it's slumber and act.
 

civfanatic

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I would have thought the prediction would be for December rather than June/July. After all the world is supposed to end then anyway, isn't it?
 
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Oracle

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I would have thought the prediction would be for December rather than June/July. After all the world is supposed to then anyway, isn't it?
For the world to end, through a Nuclear Holocaust - a conventional war has to start and gradually cross the threshold. No country would want to start a war by tossing nukes, rather stop it by tossing nukes.

June/july would be the perfect timing of a conventional war, if that has to cross the threshold and go nuclear. Your prediction would come true, if by October, most of the countries align with either China or India. One thing is sure, most countries would like to see China go down.
 
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Bhadra

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I would have thought the prediction would be for December rather than June/July. After all the world is supposed to then anyway, isn't it?
December is too late to come, grab and hold a larger chunk. This time around the Chinese are not going to come to run away and claim a victory. They will have to stay (made to stay) and face the claws of the Tiger.
 

trackwhack

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One way of looking at this - an opportunity for India to actually gain territory.
 

Oracle

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I will not argue if CHina will attack India or not - I am just curious about the time line mentioned by Col Anil Athale. Why June/ July?
- The monsoon rains will make life miserable for the attacker, landslides cut off roads, rations get destroyed, the rivers are in spate.
- If they use Pak Army, then armour cannot be used due to the soggy ground.
- The June/ July time line gives the IA enough time to recover and counter-attack across the border at a place of own choosing.

- The likely time line would be Oct/ Nov - to hit hard and pull back so that the winter snow blocks the passes and limits the counter-action from IA, preventing any further escalation of the conflict.
Sir, I agree with your points. However, what about the infrastructure on the other side of the LAC? I think it is a 100 times better than what we have on our side of the border. If at all, it would affect our forces more.
 

Tshering22

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Whatever the news says, I support the colonel's views. We don't need to station 90% of our military in eastern border but at least speed up infrastructure projects here pertaining to military movements. 3 ALGs are nothing when it is about war against PLA. Of course we won't have droves of PLA troops running into our territory but airborne raids cannot be ruled out for which we must have retaliatory measures ready to penetrate into Tibet if needed.

About time a Hawk took over... I am tired of seeing Dodos (not Doves) in power.
 

ice berg

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June/july would be the perfect timing of a conventional war, if that has to cross the threshold and go nuclear. Your prediction would come true, if by October, most of the countries align with either China or India. One thing is sure, most countries would like to see China go down.
Like to see China go down? What are you smoking? China is the biggest trade partner for many countries in SE Asia.
Dont know what country you are from. Most countries prefer a stable relation with their major trade partners. You dont want to see them going up in smoke. Especially when the world is in a recession.

I swear some people just never think before they post something.
 

Virendra

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It would be better for him to say "keep an eye on China and gear up our defense" than speculate that China will attack India in June/July
Very well thought of you my friend. Looking neutrally, the officer's view seems a bit paranoid but believe me, in Indian context it isn't.
Because in India things work a bit differently. Here the Government is deaf, blind and mute. You have to shout in order to be heard.

Regards,
Virendra
 

no smoking

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One way of looking at this - an opportunity for India to actually gain territory.
Wonderful, why doesn't india start a war proactivly now?
You know, PLA is just a coward to do anything.
So, roll up your sleeves and do it.
 

Ray

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Wonderful, why doesn't india start a war proactivly now?
You know, PLA is just a coward to do anything.
So, roll up your sleeves and do it.
Hopefully someone passes this request to the PM.
 

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