Pakistan's not going to collapse anytime soon.Just so the EU comes to the attention for even greater bilateral trade.Just sweetening for India's ears.
When masses and lawyers come out to garland a killer who assassinated a GOVERNOR and no one is able to do anything about it - you know that country is in big trouble! I don't know what the appropriate definition of collapse really is - but if you sum up ALL the following:
1) Pakistan's economy is no longer self-reliant. It is defined by foreign aid - without which it will consume up its tiny 17 odd billion $ foreign exchange in a matter of months
2) Pakistan's cycle of violence has gone beyond vanilla tangibility. Pakistani security experts - for the first time - have no clue as to WHY the hundreds of different factions are murdering, and killing people - muslims across Pakistan! Uptil the Soviets in Afghanistan, all of Pakistani "Fringe" elements had a cause to fight for. Other than the few anti-american outfits - most groups have fallen into chaos - where murder and ransom is no different from the banditry of the middle ages - and this cycle of violence is getting more and more frequent.
3) Karachi - Pakistan's principal port city - is a city under siege. The traffic reports, the news reports of lukewarm activity within the relatively minuscule Karachi Stock Exchange, the casual way of life reports in local media - belie the truth no one in Pakistan is willing to admit : The daily violence, over 30 murders a day, daylight robberies and murders, gangster driven militias roaming highly sectorized communities and the rapid decline of trade is slowly turning karachi into an urban hell.
4) Unlike the bravado's of Pakistan's "successful" war against Al Qaeda and Taliban - the fact of the matter is - Pakistan is simply hitting the outlying militias - the bulk of the taliban and al qaeda - which number more than 30000 by some estimates- are sitting pretty in N Waziristan. That number is too great and too guerilla for an army like Pakistani army to take on. The rules of the games just don't apply there. They're still intact -and they're STILL a major threat.
5) After Lal MAsjid operation - Pakistanis know that the civil or millitary administration - can no longer attempt a raid like that - the repercussions will be enormous - implying the rogue islamists now have a field run - as in sanctuaries in such mosques and madrasas to run and plan destructive operations right under the nose of the authorities!!!
Its a potent mix. And like I said in the beginnin - this may not end up being a collapse like Somalia or even Afghanistan - but an Authoritarian, single party islamist pakistan akin to Iran right on India's border is a nightmare no one wants..and no one would suffer more than the Pakistanis themselves