Endgame in Pakistan

[LurkerBaba]

I am yet to see them do that. They have their claims on parts of Balochistan but that's based on their alleged historic claims and not to propagate their version of Islam.

Iran has always been expansionist. First it was Zoroastrianism, now it's Shia Islam.

 

[Yusuf]

Iran has always been expansionist. First it was Zoroastrianism, now it's Shia Islam.

Please don't go back to the times of kings. In the last few years, post WWII I would say no.

 

[Virendra]

Next few decades would be interesting. Pakistan would be fighting a lot of battles in and out. Same with Iran. They will be fighting international pressure as well as a skewed population and demogrpahic issue as the modern Iranian women are having fewer children. In fact Ahamdinejad is working overtime to make policy shifts for encouraging the reversal of this population trend. I don't know why, may be he thinks Iran can fight the west better that way.
1990 : 0-14 years: 45% (26 million)
2000 : 0-14 years: 35% (24 million)
2009 : 0-14 years: 24% (18 million)
Iran is a country full of young people - 70% population is below 35 yrs.
Youth literacy rates have increased significantly, specially for girls. Currently, women outnumber men at the university (undergraduate) level by a factor of 2.

Statistics source - Iran's Population Tells the Truth � News About Iran

First they took desperate measures to reduce population growth and relieve the economy. Now they are desperate for population boom again. I fail to understand. The government and the people both are taking radically quick swings.
Now that I've come far off from the topic let me say that the more Pakistan or Iran slide in mud more they will come closer and make common cause against the "Zionist" powers like US and us
Guess who will be the patrons protecting them .... China and to some extent Russia.

Regards,
Virendra

 

[Iamanidiot]

I think 20 years down the line Indians would be extremely bloodthirsty and expansionist

 

[Yusuf]

I think 20 years down the line Indians would be extremely bloodthirsty and expansionist

Can you look into my future in that crystal ball as well?

 

[LurkerBaba]

I am yet to see them do that. They have their claims on parts of Balochistan but that's based on their alleged historic claims and not to propagate their version of Islam.

Please don't go back to the times of kings. In the last few years, post WWII I would say no.

Okay, I don't want to derail the thread. But Iran has interests in the region, and their alleged historic claims include Punjab and Sindh.

But we are not sworn in enemies as well ? Are we ?

Do you realise the gravity of the situation if bangladesh was still a east pakistan ? We would have to be dividing our resources to defend the border at both east and west pakistan. Today we are just patrolling the bangladeshi border from stupid tresspassers, not that we have to worry that they are going to run into our territory with tanks and planes. Not to mention the convenience china would had gotten with pakistan also being on the eastern side of india. A perfect string of pearl.

Pakistan in bits and pieces will be much more usefull for india. Let the balochistan be the stooge of US or iran, who cares ? We are not hostile with anyone of either, rather we are friends for a time being as our policies co-incide with US and iran both. Besides, being the neighbours we have every chance of having good relation with balochistan.

Partially agree, unlike Bangaldesh these smaller countries would be located in a very important region.

This 'End Game' should put a stop to our isolation from Central Asia. A broken up Pakistan with Iranian and Chinese client states won't allow us access

 

[Yusuf]

Okay, I don't want to derail the thread. But Iran has interests in the region, and their alleged historic claims include Punjab and Sindh.




Partially agree, unlike Bangaldesh these smaller countries would be located in a very important region.

This 'End Game' should put a stop to our isolation from Central Asia. A broken up Pakistan with Iranian and Chinese client states won't allow us access

Every country has an interest in the region. India has, China has to access Arabian sea, US has. So if Iran has an interest so what?

We have decent relations with Iran. Keep them that way. China is too far from home in our region to mess too much with us.

 

[civfanatic]

Iran has always been expansionist. First it was Zoroastrianism, now it's Shia Islam.

Zoroastrianism and Shia Islam were both intended to give Persians a unique identity vis-a-vis other neighboring peoples. AFAIK Persians never spread Zoroastrianism to non-Iranic peoples, as it was meant to be a religion solely for Persians/Iranians. Same with Shia Islam, though that it is an interesting case since it was spread to the Persians themselves by Shia militant orders consisting mainly of Turcoman tribes. Ismail and the later Safavids used Shia Islam to create a separate identity for Iranians, which was lacking since the Arab conquest.

 

[LurkerBaba]

Every country has an interest in the region. India has, China has to access Arabian sea, US has. So if Iran has an interest so what?

Yes, Iran and India share somewhat common interest as long as Pakistan is united. A broken up Pakistan will lead to competition, Indian interests won't be the same as Iranian ones.

 

[devgupt]

Was breaking up of Soviet Union good for NATO countries or not?

A divided Pakistan means there will be 3 -4 new nations in the neighborhood. If Iran, US , China can manipulate them, so can we. Currently we have no one to manipulate - the whole bloc controlled by Rawalpindi is blood thirsty for us.After their break up we can play them.

And this nonsense about Pakistan being a buffer against extremist Islam.
One should read about Baloch and Sindhi societies. Balochs are inherently seculars - and the BLA manifesto promises a secular country like India.Balochis are dead against Taliban.Sindhis to follow a Sufi version of Islam.
Pakjabis - to maintain their control (ex Zia Ul Haq) introduced vigorous Islamization in these regions hoping to unite the country behind them. Without Pakistan, the native cultures will flourish again.This will be real bulwark against extremist Islam.

 

[Yusuf]

Yes, Iran and India share somewhat common interest as long as Pakistan is united. A broken up Pakistan will lead to competition, Indian interests won't be the same as Iranian ones.

At most, Iran will look to get parts of Balochistan. Nothing more. India has friendly relations with Iran and our interests in Astan will be secure either way thorough Iran or Balochistan via Sindh. India has has nothing to worry. If we are able to get back our Gilgit Baltistan, we are into Central Asia.

 

[devgupt]

Yes, Iran and India share somewhat common interest as long as Pakistan is united. A broken up Pakistan will lead to competition, Indian interests won't be the same as Iranian ones.

Currently we have 0 influence on the regions which constitute Pakistan. After its breakup we can have control over some of them.Plus there will be no nuclear threat from Karachi or Quetta.That is incentive enough.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Best geopolitical thread I have seen on DFI.

 

[LurkerBaba]

Currently we have 0 influence on the regions which constitute Pakistan. After its breakup we can have control over some of them.Plus there will be no nuclear threat from Karachi or Quetta.That is incentive enough.

Agreed.

One should read about Baloch and Sindhi societies. Balochs are inherently seculars - and the BLA manifesto promises a secular country like India.Balochis are dead against Taliban.Sindhis to follow a Sufi version of Islam.

I don't buy that. Balochs are feeling the pressure under Pakjab, hence the ethnic nationalism. Once free, they may joint the pan-islam bandwagon with Saudi Funding.

 

[Yusuf]

Agreed.



I don't buy that. Balochs are feeling the pressure under Pakjab, hence the ethnic nationalism. Once free, they may joint the pan-islam bandwagon with Saudi Funding.

Like I said earlier, they are fiercely independent and have a respect for other religion, that's what I have learnt .

 

[LurkerBaba]

Like I said earlier, they are fiercely independent and have a respect for other religion, that's what I have learnt .

Okay, now that everyone agrees with this particular endgame. How do we go about implementing it ?

 

[Yusuf]

Okay, now that everyone agrees with this particular endgame. How do we go about implementing it ?

1) wait till they break on their own under their own internal strife.
2) Grow a spine and develop covert capability to influence it using our intelligence.

Second option is the ideal as we need to give a "helping" hand which will ensure that they break up and not leave it to chance.

 

[The Messiah]

Smaller countries.

Baluchistan, Sindhe as Independent country. Both will be Pro-India.
We should raise POK in aggressive way and prepare to hit them at their weakest point in future.
Support to A'than by Men, Money and Material to raise Durand Line.
Pak will become = Punjab and then their economy, diplomacy will be so weak, They can't even stand as "threat"

By this way, Possible threat from Bangladesh will also vanish. China-Pak relation will go below carpet due to no direct link via Kashmir. Threat of China will also reduce.

Weak and Unstable Pakistan is in India's favor!!

You saved me from typing :thumb:

 

[The Messiah]

I think 20 years down the line Indians would be extremely bloodthirsty and expansionist

I am already that.

Every person who doesn't bow down to the tiranga should be killed.

 

[Ray]

Endgame?

Or is it the beginning of the end?