Egypt Revolution Developments - Phase 2

The Messiah

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Egypt army opens fire on pro-Morsi protesters

At least three supporters of deposed President Morsi killed, as crowd marches on barracks where ousted leader is held.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/06/world/middleeast/egypt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

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One of the allegedly biggest grouse of Egypt Military was: The Muslim Brotherhood led regime of getting increasingly inimical to Assad & sympathetic towards the Syrian rebels. Military felt that this attitude is not good for the country as this many lead to increased Talibanisation of the Egyptian society.
This is how extremists should be dealt with. Same should happen in India also, gun down all the extremists of all hues on the roads.
 

TrueSpirit

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This is how extremists should be dealt with. Same should happen in India also, gun down all the extremists of all hues on the roads.
Wouldn't this response itself be an "extremist" approach to solve layered issues ?

However, I agree with the fact that all extremism needs to be dealt with an iron hand in velvet glove.

At the same time, our response should not be disproportionate, because that would spawn even more of what we wanted to exterminate in the first place: more radicals.....
 

nrupatunga

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the way army has reacted there.. soon Muslim brotherhood will go in armed resistance and this will be a start of civil war in egypt
Civil war as in similar to syria may not be likely, as MB may not have access to a regular flow of money to finance the civil war. Even in syria, as gcc are financing the rebels have nothing to worry. It's assad who is finding it difficult to run war. Unlike assad who has iran (some extent russia) to support his war machinery, MB does not have even a single donor.

Yes, things may go much worse but civil war, not sure about that.
 

TrueSpirit

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Civil war as in similar to syria may not be likely, as MB may not have access to a regular flow of money to finance the civil war. Even in syria, as gcc are financing the rebels have nothing to worry. It's assad who is finding it difficult to run war. Unlike assad who has iran (some extent russia) to support his war machinery, MB does not have even a single donor.

Yes, things may go much worse but civil war, not sure about that.
Depends on what Saudis think about it. If they desire so, MB could wage civil war. But, I believe that they have taken a somewhat nuanced stance so far. Difficult to predict the future.
 

nrupatunga

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Depends on what Saudis think about it. If they desire so, MB could wage civil war. But, I believe that they have taken a somewhat nuanced stance so far. Difficult to predict the future.
I suppose saudis see MB as a rival islamic movement to their own wahabbis.
 

nrupatunga

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Egypt unrest: Interim leader outlines election timetable
Mr Mansour issued the decree late on Monday.

It says that a panel to amend the constitution - which was suspended last week - would be formed within 15 days. The changes would then be put to a referendum - to be organised within four months. This would lead to parliamentary elections - which could be held early in 2014. Finally, presidential elections would be called once the new parliament convenes.
And then MB rejects it.
Brotherhood rejects Mansour poll decree
Leading Brotherhood figure Essam al-Erian says the plan for constitutional changes and a vote next year "brings the country back to square one".
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To get the official MB version, one can follow @Ikhwanweb and @gelhaddad (spokesperson of MB) on twitter.
 

Himanshu Pandey

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Civil war as in similar to syria may not be likely, as MB may not have access to a regular flow of money to finance the civil war. Even in syria, as gcc are financing the rebels have nothing to worry. It's assad who is finding it difficult to run war. Unlike assad who has iran (some extent russia) to support his war machinery, MB does not have even a single donor.

Yes, things may go much worse but civil war, not sure about that.
Egypt is sitting on Swej Canal.... and it is too important for other resources and strategic location... If MB goes to civil war which is not difficult to start.. you need few thousand people who knows from which end of gun you need to aim on enemy when you pull the trigger and few thousand guns... both are there in plainity.. once things get started others players will take interest... if MB goes to civil war.. the radicals and Al Qayda will join them to increase their reach in egypt too as they did in syria.

my firm opinion is civil war is just in the corner... if the new government will not act better it will start.
 

nrupatunga

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Egypt is sitting on Swej Canal.... and it is too important for other resources and strategic location... If MB goes to civil war which is not difficult to start.. you need few thousand people who knows from which end of gun you need to aim on enemy when you pull the trigger and few thousand guns... both are there in plainity.. once things get started others players will take interest... if MB goes to civil war.. the radicals and Al Qayda will join them to increase their reach in egypt too as they did in syria.

my firm opinion is civil war is just in the corner... if the new government will not act better it will start.
If just few hundred/thousand is enough to start a civil war, then there would been lot of civil wars eveerywhere esp in west asia. Why couldn't kurds start a civil war in iraq/turkey/iran??? Even in vietnam, if North vietnam hadn't got support from former USSR, china, they couldn't have so succesful. Even in a'stan if west had not supplied money/weapons to mujahideens, ussr could not have failed in such a manner. Even in desh, if not for constant support from pakis, JnK would not have seen so huge terrorism problem.

To sustain a civil war, they need money/arms support. If MB can self-finance themselves like taliban is currently doing, then maybe yes. Taliban is getting around 400 million$ annually. Wahabbis see MB as a rival islamic group. Saudis are fine with MB to an extent, but if they felt MB went too independent, they will certainly act against MB.

WRT suez canal if egypt army cannot maintain an open suez canal, then considering its importance, i suppose an international force will come and sit there to have an open and free canal.
 

Himanshu Pandey

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If just few hundred/thousand is enough to start a civil war, then there would been lot of civil wars eveerywhere esp in west asia. Why couldn't kurds start a civil war in iraq/turkey/iran??? Even in vietnam, if North vietnam hadn't got support from former USSR, china, they couldn't have so succesful. Even in a'stan if west had not supplied money/weapons to mujahideens, ussr could not have failed in such a manner. Even in desh, if not for constant support from pakis, JnK would not have seen so huge terrorism problem.

To sustain a civil war, they need money/arms support. If MB can self-finance themselves like taliban is currently doing, then maybe yes. Taliban is getting around 400 million$ annually. Wahabbis see MB as a rival islamic group. Saudis are fine with MB to an extent, but if they felt MB went too independent, they will certainly act against MB.

WRT suez canal if egypt army cannot maintain an open suez canal, then considering its importance, i suppose an international force will come and sit there to have an open and free canal.
lets see how many nations are there in west asia which are ot having civil war.... only Saudi, UAE, Oman, Katar, Bahrin and may be few more... all else are having a civil war running... they are not reported as much as Egypt, Libya or Syria... kurds are fighting a civil war in Iraq and Turkey, people has risen in bahrin but got pampered... saudis and UAE are using SA people and African people to ventilate their frustration and current regime profit them so they don't have a civil war.

west came later in afghanistan.. with money and weapon, afghans has already risen against USSR... they may have not won but they were fighitng the war.. vietnam is a all together different story leave that.

J&K is facing terror attacks not civil war as kashmiries may not love India but they know its better to be in India rather then in pakistan.. naxaliets can be considered in this category but they are flourishing due to lack of the will of GOI so it too is not there...

yes they need the money and thats why I mentioned Al-Qayda in it as they are in syria, in Iraq, once they enter the Egypt things will go from tense to worse...yes egyptian forces are able to secure Swej but I used it as showing egypt is a important nations and west will be there with money and gun for rebels or army whichever supports its interest.

My friend civil war stars when people start picking sides and then start shooting other side... it can be crushed but on what price thats the issue.
 

nrupatunga

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@tothinkandsay Yes, people may pick a side and start going against the regime. But if they do not have backers who can make a difference. Then that uprising will go nowhere. It will be soon crushed and then no civil war. In syria itself, there was an uprising when Assad sr was ruling around early/mid 80's. Sunnis rose against Hafez al-assad. But it was crushed with an iron fist. Then sunnis in syria had no backers. Now with a constant stream of money and arms from powerful backers, they are continuing fighting the regime forces for more than 2 years. Even now the things are in such a position, that it looks like they still win the battle of attrition, even it take a long while for this to happen.

So here again, in egypt if MB had to go against army they should intiated a civil war by now. Yes they will protest, prtotest agian and yes they will protest again. Many people may lose their lives. Things may be really bad, but civil war not sure about it. MB may grudginly go back to their shadowy ways of operations as in days of nasser/sadat/mubarak.

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If anyone thought that gcc would team up with MB, then this shows where gcc leanings are wrt MB v/s army
UAE offers Egypt $3 billion support, Saudis $5 billion
Saudi Arabia approved $5 billion in aid to Egypt on Tuesday and the United Arab Emirates has offered $3 billion in desperately needed support for the economy after the army ousted the Islamist president last week.

The Saudi funds comprise a $2 billion central bank deposit, $2 billion in energy products, and $1 billion in cash, the Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf told Reuters.

The United Arab Emirates will make a $1 billion grant to Egypt and a $2 billion loan, state news agency WAM said on Tuesday. The $2 billion loan would take the form of an interest-free deposit with Egypt's central bank, WAM said.
 
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amoy

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Anybody knows why GCC monarchies get so generous for Egypt coup?

Egyptian army's financial coup: 12 billion petrodollars from Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti fans

The petrodollar shower for Egypt did not end with the $8 billion from Saudi Arabia and the UAE: Kuwait has pledged another $5 billion - later amended to $4 billion - in a secret communication to Riyadh. It will be released after the sheikhdom's parliamentary elections on July 27, and so raise total Gulf Arab bounty to Egypt to the staggering total of $12 billion.

Friendly assistance on this scale tends to diminish the relevance of Washington's dilemmas over the continuation of its $1.3 billion aid package to Egypt after a military coup, of which $700 million is due this year.

The suggestion that US aid may be used to hasten Egypt's "swift return to a democratically elected civilian government" loses its force when Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both guaranteed to make up any shortfalls in US aid to Egypt.

On June 26, Syrian Deputy Prime Minister Kadri Jamil boasted that Moscow, Beijing and Tehran were contributing half a billion dollars per month to Syria's war chest. "It's not so bad to have Russia, China and Iran on your side," he gloated.

Egypt can now boast to have far outstripped Syria in foreign support - $12 billion in a single month, compared with a mere $6 billion in a year.
 

nrupatunga

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@amoy GCC have lot of petrodollars to spend. And MB is seen as a rival islamic movement to wahabbis. Also since egypt being largest arab state, unrest or failure of state means rise of groups which may tomorrow turn against them. Its always to good to control the crowd. Though 12 or 20 billion $ is huge, considering the stakes for themselves, it is a wise investment to safeguard themselves.
 
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amoy

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@nrupatunga IMO not that GCC sheikhs love MB less but that they love whoever in reign of Egypt more. They could have rendered the same to Morsi.

Is MB indeed a rival Islamic movement? Are the same GCC deep-pockets funding MB in Syria?

Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
 
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nrupatunga

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IIRC gcc and maybe even turkey had given billions of $$ of aid to MB ruled egypt as well. As mentioned, they would like to control whoever rules egypt. If the ruler tries to become independent, then they would be reigned in like morsi.

But is it just me or everyone else noticed that out of gcc, except qatar everyone has offered aid. Of all the gcc countries, qatar was most close to MB. Even maybe last year qatari emir had visited hamas and promised aid to them (Hamas has or maybe had close relations with MB). So it maybe that even in syria, qatar maybe supporting MB. But needs to be looked into this.
 

Ash

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I read an article recently , were it was stated the Morsi assissted in the planning of the assination/murder of the U.S. ambassador in Libya.Ii wonder if there is any truth in this and whether this is the reason for Morsi being kicked out of Govt? U.S retributuion maybe,
 

t_co

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If just few hundred/thousand is enough to start a civil war, then there would been lot of civil wars eveerywhere esp in west asia. Why couldn't kurds start a civil war in iraq/turkey/iran??? Even in vietnam, if North vietnam hadn't got support from former USSR, china, they couldn't have so succesful. Even in a'stan if west had not supplied money/weapons to mujahideens, ussr could not have failed in such a manner. Even in desh, if not for constant support from pakis, JnK would not have seen so huge terrorism problem.

To sustain a civil war, they need money/arms support. If MB can self-finance themselves like taliban is currently doing, then maybe yes. Taliban is getting around 400 million$ annually. Wahabbis see MB as a rival islamic group. Saudis are fine with MB to an extent, but if they felt MB went too independent, they will certainly act against MB.

WRT suez canal if egypt army cannot maintain an open suez canal, then considering its importance, i suppose an international force will come and sit there to have an open and free canal.
AFAIK China has privately disclosed to the Israelis that if Egypt cannot guarantee shipping traffic through Suez, then China would not use its UN veto against an Israeli intervention there.
 

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