Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons?

Yusuf

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This is what they claim. Historically India has not had good relations with Taiwan as India voted for PRC against ROC when it came to recognition in the UN as the representative of China and its seat along with the veto.
 

keshtopatel

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If anyone here's thinking of Helping Taiwan out with nukes, put it to rest. They are worse than PRC in claims. If they heavens forbid come to power, they will transform entire Asia into a warzone fighting with almost even remote enemies like Mongolia and obviously us. Heck! They even claim upper half of Uttarakhand as a part of their country! PRC is hostile I agree but ROC will be worse. Unless someone third comes to rule China, I don't think we'd be getting cosy with them ANYTIME soon.

And Taiwan isn't a separate state yet to have a requirement of Nukes. Any attack on Taiwan is considered an attack on PRC and therefore nuclear attack even by CCP is out of question. Remember, CCP wants MORE LAND from all its neighbours. If it nukes them up, what will it take from them?

Arey yaar please take a chil pill on this subject!

I have lived in HK for 2.5 years, from there I have criss crossed to Taipei 4 times (Cathay Pacific), but this is no justification anyway to justify anything on this topic though.

It is hard to imagin by any sane person to percieve that 23 million island nation like Taiwan would try to stand against billion plus people on flimsy ground - Taiwan is not a border state of India first of all, and the other thing - Its UNO outcast (1971)!

My freind, just revisit your thought process (perception)!

However, as I have felt, visiting there several times, local people are very friendly with many Indians there, no grudge at all! Many Indian exporters there helping Taiwan to export their merchandise, as in HK.

On the diplomatic & trade issue between India and Taiwan:

First, there is no diplomatic ties between India and Taiwan. Like the US, India has the same one China policy. India is not even a potential superpower at this time, but yes, it is a regional power, and second best GDP growth nation (percentage wise) after China. Therefore, Taiwan needs India as its export destination, and correctly so, there is India Taipei association, currently India is not averse to Taiwan joining UNO.

There is siginificant presence of Taiwanese companies in India who want to peneterat Indian maket in favour of there land. India´s trade (IMPEX) with Taiwan stands to 7 billion USD aproximately.


A nation, which is strugling for its own existence in the light of Massive Chines pre-emptive strikes, can not be thinking about its territorial claims against a nation nearly 6000 Km away. This is strange, without substance. Akin to any cockroach doing suicide by hanging!

 

pmaitra

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If anyone here's thinking of Helping Taiwan out with nukes, put it to rest.
In international diplomacy and geo-politics, there is no permanent friend or foe.

I could be correct or wrong in suggesting we go into a Nuclear Warhead Sharing Agreement with certain countries including Taiwan (I never said 'give them nukes'), we should at least be open to convincing Taiwan to give up their territorial claim(s) with which India is not comfortable with and then go ahead with whatever geo-political alliance that can be forged.
 

keshtopatel

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Nuclear Warhead Sharing Agreement
Pretty new phenomena!

What is the genesis, or doctrine, who does share this kind of classified information worldwide, is there any treaty or precedence (open source) ?

I am all ears!

New listing which begs some credible answers from the relivant poster......
 

pmaitra

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keshtopatel

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Yes Sir:

Go to: List of states with nuclear weapons - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Search for the string "Nuclear weapons sharing".
Nuclear weapon sharing is general phenomena among NATO members. But what you said is the following:

Nuclear Warhead Sharing Agreement
Now this is a closely gaurded secret, even though US forces have deployed NUKES in Germany-South Korean territory, they have never given any inside information on its nuclear warhead, because there is no need!

But Taiwan is NON NATO nation, how did you think of this alien concept my friend?

My friend, in your given link of WIKI, there is no SINGLE word as warhead!
Nuclear sharing is a concept in NATO's policy of nuclear deterrence, which involves member countries without nuclear weapons of their own in the planning for the use of nuclear weapons by NATO, and in particular provides for the armed forces of these countries to be involved in delivering these weapons in the event of their use.
My argument with you is pure and simple on your bold lines:

Nuclear Warhead Sharing Agreement

Warhead information is very dirty and dangerous on one hand, and SECRET AND SACROSANCT on the other!

I have nothing against the messenger, I am only against the message............
 

pmaitra

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Nuclear weapon sharing is general phenomena among NATO members. But what you said is the following: 'Warhead' [/B]
Ok, so there is no meantion of the term "warhead", but there is indeed mention of the term delivering nuclear weapons. Let me quote from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_sharing:

Nuclear sharing is a concept in NATO's policy of nuclear deterrence, which involves member countries without nuclear weapons of their own in the planning for the use of nuclear weapons by NATO, and in particular provides for the armed forces of these countries to be involved in delivering these weapons in the event of their use.
So, don't you think that nuclear weapons and their delivery systems will definitely consist of missiles and warheads?

I have posted a map with locations of missiles for your perusal:

NatoNukeMissiles.jpg

Now this is a closely gaurded secret, even though US forces have deployed NUKES in Germany-South Korean territory, they have never given any inside information on its nuclear warhead, because there is no need!

But Taiwan is NON NATO nation, how did you think of this alien concept my friend?
Ok, so what is the problem? Is there any hard and fast rule that only NATO members can have a nuke sharing agreement? Besides, you asked for a precedence, and I gave you one. I am quoting your question below:

... is there any treaty or precedence (open source) ?
Besides, why should anyone even bother about a precedence? Does one have to do things only after someone else has done it? Did NATO have a precedence?

My friend, in your given link of WIKI, there is no SINGLE word as warhead!
I am not aware of nuclear missiles that do not have nuclear warheads. I am, however, aware that there are nuclear missiles in NATO countries; and that those missiles are intended to deliver Nuclear Warheads and not Thermobaric Bombs!

My argument with you is pure and simple on your bold lines:

Nuclear Warhead Sharing Agreement

Warhead information is very dirty and dangerous on one hand, and SECRET AND SACROSANCT on the other!

I have nothing against the messenger, I am only against the message............
No offense taken. I don't see anything "dirty" about the term "warhead"; but I do respect your opinion. In the context of Nuclear Weapons (and in my humble opinion), the term "warhead" is not in any way more dirty than the terms "Little Boy" or "Fat Man".
 
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mattster

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Look Guys.......Taiwan does not need nuclear weapons to deter China.....all it needs is enough land based missiles to reduce either Shanghai or Beijing to dust. They dont even have to be nukes. It will be enough to tank the fragile Chinese economy which is 70% export based.

Why do you think that China has not invaded Taiwan ?? Simple answer - THEY CANT AFFORD TO.
Using nukes to invade a country without nukes would turn the whole world against China in a second. It would be the death of the Chinese economy !!

The second choice for China is to have a conventional military takeover of Taiwan. Here the problem is equally complicated - In addition to the sea.....if the Taiwanese military which has better technology than China were to even hold out for 1 week - it would almost be equal to a defeat for China. PUBLIC RELATIONS NIGHTMARE. Not to mention that relations between the US and China as well as the rest of the world with turn into another cold-war.

In both scenarios - the consequences will be disasterous for China. Any Chinese leader would be mad to try and take over Taiwan.

Unless China becomes the undisputed military and economic superpower of the world, with no equal in sight - you will never see anything happening across the Straits of Taiwan except for some toothless bull-crap hot air warnings to Taiwan from some big talking PLA general once every 6 months
 

neo29

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No matter what, Taiwan cant get nukes from anyone. No one in the world will help them. Atleast for now no one will help them. Nuclear Sharing is out of question.

Its upto Taiwan to develop nukes and they are absolutely capable of it. But they wont get Plutonium or Uranium from anywhere.

The US gave Israel nuke technology secretly, they may or may not have done the same with Taiwan. But yes they are capable of it depending on the scenario.

With thousands of missiles pointing at Taiwan why shouldn't Taiwan have nuclear weapons.
 

keshtopatel

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Nuclear Warhead Sharing Agreement
By giving warhead or its blueprints to any nation, MTCR treaty is violated, NATO is an entity of various members and NATO does not buy, sell or lease nuclear weapons.

However if you mean nuclear gaurantee, as US has given to Australia, Japan and South Korea (its called nuclear umbrella) then its okey........Its a gaurantee on Paper without actual warhead transfer taking place!
 

keshtopatel

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With thousands of missiles pointing at Taiwan why shouldn't Taiwan have nuclear weapons.

The reasoning mentioned above is right.

Taiwan does not have nuclear weapons. However, Taiwan has made attempts to organize production of plutonium on an experimental basis. Imported nuclear technologies, knowledge, and equipment do not enable Taiwan to create nuclear weapons, but do provide the necessary basis for work in the nuclear field and may accelerate nuclear weapons development, if such a decision is made.
By 1974 the US Central Intelligence Agency concluded that "Taipei conducts its small nuclear program with a weapon option clearly in mind, and it will be in a position to fabricate a nuclear device after five years or so."
But they wont get Plutonium or Uranium from anywhere.

Taiwan does not have its own natural reserves of nuclear raw materials and actively cooperates with other countries in searching for and exploring uranium deposits. A five-year agreement between a Taiwanese and an American firm on joint development of uranium ore in the United States was signed in 1985. That same year a contract was signed with the Republic of South Africa for a 10-year supply of uranium from that country.
 

neo29

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^^^^ @keshtopatel

Taiwan may have Uranium but i highly doubt that they contracted with South Africa. It may not be official.

Here is the entire article from where u took the extracts.

Taiwan and Nuclear Weapons

Taiwan does not have nuclear weapons. However, Taiwan has made attempts to organize production of plutonium on an experimental basis. Imported nuclear technologies, knowledge, and equipment do not enable Taiwan to create nuclear weapons, but do provide the necessary basis for work in the nuclear field and may accelerate nuclear weapons development, if such a decision is made. Taiwan is a member of the Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons. To increase transparency, Taiwan is implementing the IAEA's new, more effective safeguards, known as "Program 93+2."

Following the reestablishment of National Tsinghua University in Taiwan in 1956, the university built the nation's first research nuclear reactor and began training atomic energy specialists. More than a decade later, the Taiwan Power Company established a nuclear energy department and laid plans for a nuclear power plant. Thereafter the Atomic Energy Council and the Nuclear Energy Research Institute were established, and the development of nuclear energy gradually progressed to the stage of large reactors used for the generation of power.

Taiwan launched a nuclear weapons program after the first Chinese nuclear test in October 1964. The military Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology developed the "Hsin Chu Program" which included the purchase of a heavy-water reactor, a heavy-water production plant, and a plutonium separation plant. The Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) established in 1968 as the sole national institute in Taiwan specialized in nuclear technology R&D programs.

By 1974 the US Central Intelligence Agency concluded that "Taipei conducts its small nuclear program with a weapon option clearly in mind, and it will be in a position to fabricate a nuclear device after five years or so."

Chiang Kai-shek died in 1975, and the presidency was assumed by his son, Chiang Ching-kuo.

In September 1976 President Chiang Ching-kuo stated that Taiwan would not develop reprocessing facilities or engage in reprocessing. Despite this pledge, Taiwan appears to have continued modest clandestine reprocessing and irradiation research through the late 1980s. The United States forced Taiwan to dismantle some facilities to reduce the risk they posed.

In 1988 Taiwan shut down the TRR reactor. Before 1988, INER was under the administration of Chung Shan Institute of Sciences and Technologies (CSIST). INER's mission was designated for the national peaceful usage of the nuclear energy research and development, and after 1988 INER became a part of Atomic Energy Council.

Speculation over a covert Taiwanese nuclear program intensified on 13 October 2004, after the Associated Press reported that International Atomic Energy Agency officials disclosed they had evidence that Taiwan experimented with plutonium during the early 1980s (AP). Taiwanese experts voiced strong opposition to the idea of a nuclear program, saying it would bring direct conflict with China and isolate Taiwan from the United States (Taipei Times, ETtoday). The pro-independence China Post was one of the few Taiwanese media outlets to publish an editorial supporting a nuclear weapons capability.
Atomic Power

Developed atomic power engineering has been created in the country with the technical assistance of American and Western European states. By the mid-1980's, there were already six nuclear power units with a total capacity of 4,900 megawatts operating in Taiwan. The construction of Taiwan's fourth nuclear power plant will set the stage for the acquisition of an advanced reactor design and digital control technology. Because the nation's first nuclear power plant is approaching its second ten-year license renewal, the focus of research efforts over the next few years will be to prevent the plant from deteriorating and extend the plant service life.

Taiwan does not have its own natural reserves of nuclear raw materials and actively cooperates with other countries in searching for and exploring uranium deposits. A five-year agreement between a Taiwanese and an American firm on joint development of uranium ore in the United States was signed in 1985. That same year a contract was signed with the Republic of South Africa for a 10-year supply of uranium from that country.

Apart from power generation, nuclear energy technology is also widely used in the R.O.C. for medical purposes. In addition to the medium-sized cyclotron and medical isotope and nuclear material extraction facilities constructed by the Nuclear Energy Research Institute, major hospitals and medical centers have established radiation medicine, tumor therapy and nuclear medicine departments. Among these, Veterans General Hospital in Taipei has set up a small cyclotron to produce short half-life radioactive isotopes for medical purposes.
 

keshtopatel

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Taiwan may have Uranium but i highly doubt that they contracted with South Africa. It may not be official.
They do have Uranium, thier reactors are running!

South African exports meet about 70 percent of Taiwan's uranium needs.
"Uranium Pledged for Taiwan," Worldwide Report, 7 June 1984, p. 33.
 

Yusuf

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KT, sharing of nukes warheads etc is not a violation of MTCR. Its pure proliferation. MTCR is to control the spread of ling range missiles to deliver nukes which puts it at 300kms. Pakistan got ready warheads and missiles from china and north korea, now that is some serious violation which the west blinked at.
 

keshtopatel

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KT, sharing of nukes warheads etc is not a violation of MTCR. Its pure proliferation. MTCR is to control the spread of ling range missiles to deliver nukes which puts it at 300kms. Pakistan got ready warheads and missiles from china and north korea, now that is some serious violation which the west blinked at.
See the following from primary source:

The Missile Technology Control Regime is an informal and voluntary association of countries which share the goals of non-proliferation of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction, and which seek to coordinate national export licensing efforts aimed at preventing their proliferation.
http://www.mtcr.info/english/index.html

Nuclear warheads = WMD

More:

The MTCR was initiated partly in response to the increasing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), i.e., nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
 
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Yusuf

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share the goals of non-proliferation of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction
Delivering WMD, it does not talk of WMDs itself. It was part of the process to stop the spread of WMDs.
 

keshtopatel

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Delivering WMD, it does not talk of WMDs itself. It was part of the process to stop the spread of WMDs.
So, the 300 KM plus 500Kg threshold does mean that 450 Kg (below 500 Kg) nuclear warhead would be allowed to be exported with 290 Km missile?
 

Yusuf

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Negative. You cannot sell nukes.. Period. Sell all the missiles you want under 300kms range.
 

Yusuf

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There you go!

Hence we can safely conclude that:

MTCR prohibits nuclear warheads to be exported!
No it does not. Where does it say that? MTCR is only a means to prevent WMD itself. Selling of nukes is not a violation of MTCR but NPT.
 

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