Do you believe this, $123,000,000,000,000 by the year of 2040?

Yusuf

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at current prices and all other factors remaining constant, china will have to grow at about 11.5% for another 30 years. But the Chinese economy is already slowing down. i would imagine by 2040, china can reach 60-70 trillion.
 

SHASH2K2

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They expect China to become a scaled down version of Jimwabwe. There is no harm for us in them dreaming so.Let them dream and live happily in their wonderland.
 

Daredevil

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Total BS. From now on China's GDP growth is going to slow down or remain same at the maximum and if it is so, it will never ever reach 50 trillion forget about 123 trillion. Most unlikely.
 

sayareakd

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may be chines have there own theories of economy unlike the theories we know.
 

sesha_maruthi27

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It is impossible by any economy to develop to such a stature in such a little period, given the present world financial crisis:emot15:
 

thakur_ritesh

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Those are some startling numbers infact. China's economy at 123t usd will be 40% of the global gdp, which means by then the global economy will be worth 307.5t usd.

EU will be left at just 5% of the global economy which means a mere 15-16t usd, well which is what the today's EU is already at, and assuming there wont be any further additions to EU's membership does the author mean to suggest that EU just wont grow at all?
Does that mean with an over all growth of global economy by 250t usd during the said period, EU will have no share in that at all?
And in this all this maddening growth by 250t usd where will all the natural resources and resources otherwise come from?
EU would infact be a very poor corner of the world by those estimates, if yes, I am for one amazed!

Would have been keen to know what would have happened to other global economies, most certainly at 14% US wouldn't be the second largest economy, and china would have not grown as much by just trading with the US (since EU is to not grow at all so for them we assume all remains constant starting from today) so would have loved to see the data for other countries.
Imagine these 3 making up 60% of global economy, so what will happen to BRI of the left out BRIC who would have individually most certainly out performed the EU for sure which means if not less the BRI alone should be around 20-25% of the global order, then where will the other emerging economies disappear and then there are other 150 odd countries, or is it that all these 30 years it will be just the Chinese economy that will be growing rest will just be catering to them?

Since this study surrounds around higher education, India churns out 33% of global engineering graduates per year employable or otherwise (I am not counting in quality since there has been no such emphasis by the author), there has been a tremendous thrust given to higher education in India where India is in an attempt to have 30 graduates and post graduates off every 100 that complete 10years of formal education by 2020 and india is attempting near 100% 10years of formal education for all (over an extended period o time), so if education were to be the lone factor surrounding such a growth india wont be far behind either.

Does anyone have a detailed study/report on this, would be quite interesting to go through and specific criticism by eminent economists, if yes please share. Thanks.
 

Singh

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If there is hyperinflation in the US, then even Nepalese economy can touch 500 trillion U$D mark but then U$D will be worthless and there will be a new global currency in place.
However with rapid growth the kind the author predicts will lead to massive overheating and will be essentially unsustainable and catastrophic. THe Chinese were doing all they could to stop the growth in the last few years, now the Chinese are doing all the can to fudge the numbers to show growth.
 

amoy

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GDP GDP........Let's face the music (clear headed as Wen put) >>>>>

+quote

China remains a developing country

While taking pride from the rapid growth and remarkable achievements over the past 30 years, "we are clear-headed about our place and role in today's world," Wen said.

Although China's gross domestic product is the third largest in the world, the per capita figure is only one tenth of that of developed countries, he noted.

China is a leading producer of many important products, but remains at the lower end of the global industrial chain; China is a big trading nation, but its exports are low in technology content and in added value, Wen said.

China's coastal areas and some of the big and medium-sized cities thrive in modernization, but many places in the central and western regions and the vast rural areas are still rather backward, he said, noting that 150 million people in China are still living below the poverty line set by the United Nations.

In addition, more efforts are needed before China establishes full-fledged social security and legal systems and eradicate inequity, corruption and other social ills, Wen said.

"Taken as a whole, China is still in the primary stage of socialism and remains a developing country," he concluded, adding that the country's further development faces constraints of energy, resources and the environment.

"These are our basic national conditions. This is the real China," Wen said.

China sticks to reform and opening-up

In order to realize the strategic goal of basically achieving modernization by the middle of this century, China will forge ahead in the coming decades with the already 32-year-old basic policy of reform and opening-up, the Chinese premier said.

The guideline "has benefited people across the country" and "there is no reason whatsoever for us to deviate from it," Wen said.

Terming development as Beijing's "top priority," he said China's progressing industrialization and urbanization will draw hundreds of millions of farmers into towns and cities and thus "create more domestic demand than ever."

The trend will "open up broad market and development space and serve as a powerful engine sustaining the growth of the Chinese economy and the world economy at large," Wen continued.
-

+unquote
 

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