Do not dismiss it as conspiracy theory.

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Vishwarupa, Jun 4, 2016.

  1. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    You can laugh as much as you want and dismiss this as conspiracy theory, but day by day, looking at the politics & economy of the country, my theory is gaining strength & momentum.

    My theory is as follows:

    "Over the last 2-3 years, global hidden forces (I usually refer to them as 3Ms - Mullahs, Missionaries, Marxists) are trying to take control of Indian Economy. For this project, what else can be better than claiming a significant stake in our banking system which forms the backbone of our economy? In fact, PSU banks which have their tentacles spread into every nook & corner of our nation, would be the most obvious target, and the process of capturing them has already begun.

    First & foremost, there should be a strong reason for the 3Ms to acquire a stake in our economy. For that, they had to create an artificial mini-recession in India, which was successfully achieved by their puppet R3 of RBI who abruptly switched from WPI from CPI & refused rate cuts which in turn affected our Industries:
    http://www.dnaindia.com/money/repor...icy-rate-cut-emerges-as-spread-widens-2103022

    This actually had an accumulating effect on bad loans in our banking sector, which was then exploited by R3 in the pretext of cleaning up of banks. Actually, the NPA mess (bad loans) of our banks has been in existence for decades and it is not something new. It actually required a careful & gradual surgery, but was unfortunately suddenly thrown out of the bathtub last year without caring about the consequences.

    Even in 2013 when R3 assumed office during UPA rule, the NPAs mess was already there, but R3 chose to turn a blind eye towards it because he wanted to strike it later i.e after BJP came to power, so that he could slow down the Modi jaggernaut & prepare the ground for FIIs to strike afresh.
    Here is an article from 2014 which had mentioned the NPA mess created by previous Govt:
    http://www.dnaindia.com/money/repor...nherit-rs-3-lakh-crore-financial-mess-1966575

    During this process, the foreign forces had slowly withdrawn whatever stake they had in our banks, due to which our bank stock prices were on a falling spree.
    For example, consider ICICI Bank. It was the darling of FIIs even till as recently as 2014:
    http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/why-do-fiis-love-icici-bank-114030600664_1.html

    But in 2015, they had quietly exited ICICI Bank resulting in the stock price falling down to throwaway prices:
    http://www.livemint.com/Money/Z3fQbUdoFpuZtOpTQedviJ/ICICI-Bank-shares-hit-19month-low.html

    Finally, by the end of 2015, the NPA mess was exposed by abruptly changing the definition of NPA itself, & the banks were armtwisted to suddenly show losses which in turn led to crash of their stock prices in Feb 2016.
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...t-value-of-psu-banks/articleshow/51078318.cms

    Now that the bank stocks have crashed & are available at throwaway prices, FIIs under the 3Ms guidance started accumulating them, thereby claiming stake at much lower prices.
    The same ICICI Bank is now available at much lower prices, thereby helping FIIs to gain more stake for the same price:
    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2016-01-28/news/70150320_1_fiis-dcb-bank-dipan-mehta

    The same was the story in the case of PSU Banks as well. In 2015, they sold their stake at higher prices & waited for R3 to strike down the banks:
    http://articles.economictimes.india...4567738_1_psu-banks-private-sector-banks-npas

    And in 2016 after R3 struck down the banks very hard, and now that they are available at much lower prices, the FIIs started rushing again from Feb 2016. Basically, the idea was that, if in 2014, FIIs had 20% stake in a PSU bank, then by selling it for X amount and waiting for the bank's stock price to fall to X/2 in 2016, the FIIs could again come & now buy double the stake for the same X amount.

    (To give a simpler analogy. Assume you had 1 ton gold & the market price for 1 gram gold was Rs 3000 in 2014. You send someone who is powerful enough to shake up the gold market so that gold will decrease in 2015. So, you sell your 1 ton gold for Rs 300 crore in 2014 & keep the cash in your house. Throughout 2015, gold price will drop and hit the bottom of Rs 1500 per gram in Feb 2016. That's when you enter the market with your Rs 300 crore cash, and for that, you now get 2 tons of gold. i.e You had 1 ton gold in 2014, but with all these drama, you now have 2 tons of gold in 2016!!
    That's how FIIs under the auspices of 3Ms orchestrated the entry of R3 with his scripted plan, and later after all the hungama, doubled their stake in our Indian banks without spending any extra money)

    But, there was a small problem. They could not purchase more than 20% of the Indian PSU banks. To overcome it, they are trying to get the FDI limit increased from 20% to 49%:
    http://bankingfrontiers.com/govt-may-hike-fii-stake-in-psu-banks/

    If this happens (and it looks like it will definitely happen), then it will be a big success for these global forces who are trying to gain control of our economy by invading our banking sector."

    That's is my theory of how global forces are trying to gain control of Indian Economy. Not just me, but even eminent thinkers & analysts have been flouting similar theories. Here is another similar theory by Gurumurthy:
    http://www.newindianexpress.com/col...s-Rajans-Agenda/2016/02/20/article3286750.ece

    Here is a popularly acknowledged theory of how G30 creates havoc:
    http://www.occupy.com/article/global-power-project-group-thirty-financial-crisis-kingpins

    R3 is part of that G30:
    http://www.countercurrents.org/kasli110913.htm

    As I said in the beginning, it is easy to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory. But if you look at the bigger picture along with the geopolitical & market dynamics and try to connect the dots with the help of all the links I have provided, with an open mind, this theory might gain credibility & we can prepare ourselves for the future consequences accordingly.

    Source: Facebook
     
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  3. raja696

    raja696 Regular Member

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    From long time i was suspecting raghuram as wolf in sheeps clothes... well its turning out to be true unfortunately i too felt same way in larger picture (not considering swamy claims) . No governor can regulate our economy its wider than we know it, and what raghu ram did he has hurt fews percentages of structured economy by tinkering it...
     
  4. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    While the mighty superpowers like the US are scared of Islamic Banking due to terror fears, should a developing nation like India take such big risk?


    [​IMG]
     
  5. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    Of late, Arab Mullahs are feeling nervous because crude has crashed, and the US will reduce their dependency on Arabs because they are able to dig oil in their own country due to advancement in fracking.
    http://www.investopedia.com/…/how-has-fracking-helped-us-de…

    Also, going forward, progress in green energy initiatives in developed nations will slowly make oil (almost) obsolete, thereby pushing the Arab Shiekhs into obscurity.

    So, these Shiekhs are now desperately looking at India for 2 major reasons:

    1) To capture/control energy sector of India so that they can keep their cash register ringing.

    2) And to start investing in India so that they can grow their existing assets/money. For example, they might start investing heavily into Indian real estate, Indian banks, Indian stock markets, Indian industries etc.

    In fact, it has already begun.
    "Saudi Arabia's top business tycoons to invest in India's key sectors like defence, insurance, railway and oil"
    http://www.ndtv.com/…/pm-seeks-saudi-investments-in-key-ind…

    But since their methods of investments are not conventional, they might push for Sharia compliant systems and one such system is Islamic Banking which they have managed to push into India through their G30 agent at RBI:
    http://swarajyamag.com/…/why-is-raghuram-rajan-toying-with-…

    What's in store for us going forward?
    We can expect Arab Shiekhs & Mullahs to show lot of "love" towards India and they might try all kinds of tricks to impress Indian Govt so that they can win our trust and gradually invade our economy, energy sector & financial institutions.
    Once they are confident of their finances being safe in India, their tension will ease and then they can start thinking of other agendas. i.e They might start opening up their religious intentions, to probably propagate their religion by funding madrasas in India, building more mosques in India & funding them, and maybe add a tint of sharia compliance into everything in India. For example, Islamic Banking (which is already approved by RBI), Islamic Mutual Funds, Islamic ATMs, Sharia Stock Exchange, Sharia reward points, Halal popcorn/cool-drinks etc.
    Don't be surprised if next time you visit a shopping mall & the cashier rejects your credit card because he accepts only Sharia card but not Visa or Master card.
    Don't be surprised if next time your financial advisor suggests you to buy some Sharia mutual funds because Govt gives tax benefits for such funds.

    Am I kidding? No!!

    I am serious. As shown in the earlier link, Islamic Banking is already approved. Next in line is Sharia Mutual Funds. Tata has already got approval to offer sharia compliant mutual fund:
    http://www.tatamutualfund.com/…/diversifi…/tata-ethical-fund

    And you thought I was kidding about tax benefit for sharia fund? That is also actually in process:
    http://www.financialexpress.com/…/boost-demand-of-sh…/14227/

    You thought the example of Sharia ATM was sarcasm? No.
    They are part of Islamic Banking and the specialty of such ATMs is that you can make zakat payments which is a major feature of Islamic Banking:
    http://www.shariahfinancewatch.org/…/zakat-payments-at-you…/

    Sharia credit card? Here it is. Halal card, just like Visa & Mastercard:
    http://www.creditcards.com/…/shariah-compliant-credit-cards…
     
  6. OneGrimPilgrim

    OneGrimPilgrim Senior Member Senior Member

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    whr invaders hv been eulogised, heroes binned!!
    Raghuram Rajan Controversy: Why Subramanian Swamy HAS a Point.

    There is a sense of anger among Indian intellectual class, stunned by the demand made by Dr Subramanian Swamy for sacking of Dr Raghuram Rajan - the most respected, ever charming, hottest RBI Governor India has ever had. From Shobha De to newspaper editors to the average Joe, Dr Raghuram Rajan commands a following rivaling that of Salman Khan.

    Not only analysts, commentators and financial daily editors have come out in support of Dr Rajan, even common public seems to be completely unanimous in their support of Dr Rajan and all the good work he has been doing for Indian economy. Going by the number of editorials / articles and public forum comments posted in support of Dr Rajan, one can easily conclude that India is in safe hands, or at least perceived by the general public to be in safe hands.

    There is no denying the fact that Dr Raghuram Rajan is one of the finest brains when it comes to Economics. Applauded by some as one of the very few economists to warn about 2008 crisis much ahead of the time, he is widely respected and credited with sound understanding of complex macroeconomics issues.

    The last time a central banker got so much respect and public support was Alan Greenspan in 2002 era. The other Economist, who got so much respect from Indian public / experts / intellectuals, was Dr Manmohan Singh as India’s PM in 2004-09 era. Needless to say, public opinion is hardly the right barometer for gauging long-term impact if one goes by the disdain both these gentlemen now attract from academia and general public alike - as public opinion, fickle at best, is always swayed by perception rather than hard facts.

    The arguments made in support of Dr Rajan are multifold and cover almost every possible ground to demonstrate how Rajan is the best man for the job and how wrong is Subramanian Swamy. The main arguments given by supporters of Dr Rajan are as follows:

    1. Dr Rajan has been able to keep inflation under control by keeping interest rates high initially and didn’t succumb to political pressure (greatest virtue in the country of Singham). This hard stance towards inflation kept cheap money out and didn’t allow buildup of another sub-prime scenario in India.

    2. He has cracked open the NPA issue of banks and brought out the muck in open. This cleansing of bank balance-sheets will usher in a new era of transparency and will fix the nexus of politician-banker-bureaucrat forever, as the public sector banks are the primary source of crony capitalism and high real estate prices in India.

    3. He has published far more papers than Dr Swamy and is cited / peer-reviewed many times more compared to Dr Swamy.

    4. He is very well respected by International media and considered to be one of the best brains in Economics

    5. He is a far better economist than Dr Subramanian Swamy who is more of a lone ranger / fringe politician.

    All the above arguments seem quite valid on the face of it, but then keep in mind that the criticism of Raghuram Rajan is not made by some usual analyst but none other than Dr Subramanian Swamy - one of the sharpest brains around with an enviable track record of proving his points. So rather than jumping in defense of Raghuram Rajan, it is much better to have a deeper look at the critique, since Dr Swamy has a reputation of not making false claims without support from necessary data. So rather than debating on issues like nos of papers published, who is the better economist, etc., let us focus on the major issue of interest rates and inflation, which seems to be the bone of contention among fan-boys and Dr Swamy.

    There is no debate that inflation has remained within limits since Dr Rajan took over RBI in 2013; however, the low inflation has been more of a function of massive drop in oil prices and commodity prices. Since 2013, oil prices have dropped from the heights of US$ 90 a barrel to US$ 40 a barrel (55% drop). Further, by choosing not to pass this price drop benefit to consumers, Indian govt has been able to manage its high fiscal deficit, which in turn calmed down its currency. Further, Modi Govt has been quite proactive in controlling food inflation by taking quick actions, be it import of food items or action against hoarders. Hence, to say that inflation in India is down due to strong monetary policy and high interest rates is nothing but a big myth. In fact a little bit of movement in oil prices in last quarter has already perked up the inflation.

    Hence, it is obvious that high interest rate regime has nothing to do with inflation and in fact every thing to do with low growth faced by India. Interestingly, everyone has jumped on Subramanian Swamy, harping on the fact of rate cuts not passed by banks to consumers and talking of headline interest rate, while totally forgetting that Swamy is not talking of main interest rate but interest rate available to SME sector. Interestingly, while interest rates for large corporate hover around 9%, interest rates for SME sector hover in the range of 16% to 22% and no attempt has been made to bring down this rate.

    Worldwide, and especially in the Western world, monetary policies are effective tools to manage inflation; however, the economists trained in Western view need to understand that India is not West and does not have the luxury of enormous resources or well-oiled supply chain. Inflation in India is not a function of more demand but supply side constraints, which become worse with higher interest rates and crony capitalism. So far, not only has RBI failed in bringing down overall lending rates in general economy, it has also not worked on main inflation which is plaguing middle class and poor in India.

    Unfortunately, all discussions related to inflation in India revolve around food prices, while in actual the bigger share is consumed by housing sector. On an average, almost 34% of a household income goes towards meeting the housing cost (Rent/EMI), and thanks to liberal policies / crony capitalism indulged by banks (primarily PSU Banks), the prices of housing have remained strong in India and in fact are much higher than even the prices in Dr Rajan’s adopted country. In 2008, when the whole world was reeling under severe liquidity crunch and asset prices collapsed like anything, Indian real estate and Indian economy remained insular and that was not due to sheer brain of Dr Manmohan Singh but sheer luck in the form of 6th Pay Commission and crony capitalism of PSU banks (banks pumped capital in real estate firms and thus allowed them to keep prices high) that saved the day for Indian economy and builders.

    However, this benevolence of Indian banks created other victims - that is overall economic growth in general and middle class in particular. The continued high real estate cost (EMI/Rent) left hardly any surplus cash in the hands of an average consumer and in turn led to continued slowdown in the Indian industry (a fact clearly visible if one goes by almost flat growth of white goods, commercial vehicles, etc.), which was already reeling under high interest costs.

    Now one may argue as to what is the relation between housing prices with inflation and interest rates. By keeping interest rates for housing at 11% while lending rate for SME at 14%, RBI has crowded out money from all sectors and diverted it to housing. Given the power of leverage and faulty income tax laws, investors are earning 30% to 36% returns from real estate and thus creating capital scarcity and higher interest rates. Today, an SME or a hospital or an educational institute pay interest rates in order of 14%+ while housing loans are disbursed at 11% or lower, and on top of it get significant income tax rebate.

    Dr Rajan, in his 2005 address, had observed that ongoing financial developments had made the world a riskier place (no, he didn’t predict the 2008 crisis as believed popularly) and raised concerns regarding banks’ inability to handle risks beyond a limit due to flawed reward structure. Interestingly, despite deep insight into the workings of banking system, the RBI Governor in India never restrained banks from providing additional liquidity to real estate or stopped fancy derivative schemes like interest subvention, etc. This continued liquidity given to housing sector in the form of lower interest rates and subvention schemes has created massive build up of risk in Indian banking system in the form of housing. Strangely, Dr Rajan didn’t take any action in terms of normalizing exposure to housing sector.

    Hence, Dr Subramanian Swamy is correct when he says that Dr Raghuram Rajan has wrecked the economy by wrong policies, since continuous 22% interest rate has wrecked SME sector due to high costs and low demand as average household has hardly any cash surplus left after paying for real estate costs (Rent/EMI).

    So rather than saving and steering Indian economy, the policies of present Governor have pushed India in a unique crisis with almost no industrial growth coupled with high interest rates where there is massive unemployment or no job growth except some small slivers of hope on account of massive funding to startups.

    Now with oil slowly limping back to US$ 50 per barrel and above, and 7th Pay Commission on the horizon, Indian economy is going to face double whammy for which neither Indian Finance Ministry nor RBI are well prepared.

    So why is there such wide support for Dr Raghuram Rajan and so much disdain for Dr Swamy? Interestingly, the reasons don’t lie in economics data or hard facts but in human behaviour.

    We all love Dr Rajan because he is so much like us and represents our aspirations - be it his education (IIT, IIMA, MIT), his career path (Chicago Professor, IMF, RBI Governor), which we all aspire for us or for our kids to have. Not in the distant past, we all went gaga over a certain other economist who ruled this country for 10 years and despite all hard data / evidence about lack of moral compass and corruption, we kept him revered and on the altar of perfection. So this is basically about us and not at all about Dr Rajan or Dr Manmohan Singh.

    Now on Dr Swamy – the reason for the disdain and smirks thrown at him by the great middle class is obvious as Dr Swamy is that super-intelligent lone warrior in the class whom we all secretly admire but have none of the intellect, guts or courage, and hence mock him, because however hard we try, we can’t be him.

    But then when was economics about data and not about human behaviour!!!

    Read more of my thoughts on my blog: http://www.fringenotes.in
     
  7. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    BJP is there in power as govt.

    If they wants to change RBI Governor then that is fine.

    Convey the message to Governor.

    That he did great job, but the govt wants to provide opportunity to someone else now.

    End of story.

    What say....!
     
  8. OneGrimPilgrim

    OneGrimPilgrim Senior Member Senior Member

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    whr invaders hv been eulogised, heroes binned!!
    his 3-yr contract is to end this Sept., and he has given indications that he wont be continuing/renewing. so the story should anyway end without much hullabaloo.
     
  9. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Very good then.......................................................................
     
  10. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is exactly what I have been cautioning.
    BJP & the Ultra bhakts can give millions of innovative reasons to justify tax hikes, but as I have always been saying, it is a psychological game in politics where perception plays a major role.

    Introducing 6 new taxes and withdrawing 4 of them after protests will effectively result in addition of only 2 new taxes, but the mindset of people is such that they remember the 6 new taxes (but forget that 4 new taxes were rolled back). You cannot blame the people because that's how psychology works. So, as an administrator, you should be cautious enough so as to not play with middle class sentiments, and certainly not give a chance to political hyenas to ride on your follies.

    Look at how the official page of Aam Aadmi Party has now upped the ante by creating a new post on this issue, indicating their eagerness to exploit middle class sentiments & play the perception battle.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    In politics, perception plays a major role in determining the pulse of voters. Political parties spend tons on advertising & propaganda to fight perception battles, and hence it is of utmost importance to maintain a balanced perception, especially when a party is in power.

    Coming to the real topic now, based on my interaction with people in urban as well as rural, I can safely vouch for the fact that BJP is gradually building a perception of anti-middle-class party, mainly due to its desperation to add taxes at a frequency which is faster than the pace at which the middle-class can digest (while the irony is that it is the same middle class which brought BJP to power).

    As a supporter of BJP, I can definitely find "innovative" ways to defend the party & justify their new taxes & even the Krishi Kalyan tax which was introduced yesterday. I am confident of the Modi Govt using these taxes for constructive purposes in the best interest of the nation. Having said that, the pace/frequency at which these taxes are being introduced, are not going down well with the middle class and hence affecting the perception of the party.

    This brings us back to the same old topic of "Jaichands" within the party who are trying to provoke the middle class. The pattern is very interesting because half the time, there would be U-Turns & rollbacks of the taxes (like in the case of EPF tax, Gold tax etc), but despite the rollback, the damage would already be done. For example, a typical salaried professional would show signs of frustration against the Govt by pointing out that he now has to pay all these taxes and even pay tax on EPF withdrawal. Although the fact is that Tax on EPF was rolled back, the damage to perception was already done. And after rolling back EPF tax, introducing another new tax within a month will strengthen the "confirmation bias" of the target audience (middle-class). That's how psychology works. It is this psychological game which is being played by Jaichands to portray BJP as Tax-Janata-Party and indulging in self-destruction of future prospects.

    Unfortunately, this time it is not Congress or AAP but BJP itself which must take the blame because it is happening from within the party. I hope the party leaders introspect over this psychological warfare and take some measures to curb the menace. If not addressed now, it can cost the party dearly later, because political perception with psychological manipulation is like a bamboo plant which starts growing gradually and shoots up later.

    Source: facebook
     
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  12. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

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    The Islamic banks will be under watch and it will be easy for India to control accounts of Muslims.

    In India the radical element is not even 0.5% and what ever radicalization and recruitment happen, well it happens in foreign.

    HSBC is itself a tax heaven for many crocodiles.
     
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  13. OneGrimPilgrim

    OneGrimPilgrim Senior Member Senior Member

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    whr invaders hv been eulogised, heroes binned!!
    these perceptions would probably last only till GST and till before the next LS elections, the reason why the cesses are being introduced NOW.

    but BJP should grab its weapons and go hammer & tongs after the [email protected] too thats being churned out & spread, like the old post-edit email-whatsapp circulations of 'dear FM, we are already paying so-&-so tax....'
     
  14. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    Do you have any data to prove that only 0.5% is radicalized & others are holy cow? Many ISIS recruiters are based in India.
     
  15. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Actually we are lucky to have a politician like swamy. Some time prima facie what he says sense absurd but ultimately he turns out to be right. When he exposes some one, lots of truth starts coming out and convince you that what he says is always right.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2016
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  16. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    [​IMG]

    The purpose of a system is what it does.
     
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  17. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

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    see the muslim population in total is 172Million and 1% of 150 Million is 17 lakh!!

    So if even 1% is radicalized then it is a catastrophe.

    The IS is failing in India because the return of recruits is more than recruitment itself. Muslims in India do not actually have that instinct due to culture in which they adopted doesn't allow them to go for it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2016
  18. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Bhai..too many flawed assumptions in your conspiracy.

    Don't want to talk about NPAs because it will need long explanation.

    Coming to FIIs buying bank stocks, they can buy hardly anything more till govt. does not dilute its stake in most banks. Private sector banks much less affected by NPAs as compared to PSUs coz PSUs had to give loans to likes of Mallaya.

    Knowing about NPAs is important to quantify risk of the system. If you don't do that you will end up like US banks post Lehmann crisis when everyone bought sub-prime mortgages, but no one knew who holds what. Can't stress more on why it is important to know NPAs and stressed assets.
     

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