Discussion about Stock Market

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Yusuf, Apr 19, 2009.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    NEW DELHI: It may sound utopian in the backdrop of months-long downslide on bourses, but a US-based equity research group sees India's benchmark index Sensex scaling a milestone of 1,00,000 points within next 15 years.

    This would mean an unimaginable rally of over 10-times from the level seen just a few days ago, when Sensex was toiling below 10,000-point mark after a meltdown that began more than a year ago.

    The Sensex had more than halved to trade below 8,000-point mark in October last year after scaling a record high of over 21,000 points on January 10, 2008.

    Unperturbed by the sharp fall, US-based global equity research group Elliott Wave International, which specializes in analysis of technical charts of stock movements, believes that the recent surge in Indian market is the beginning of a long-running bull cycle that could continue for 15 years.

    The recent upsurge began on March 9 and the Sensex has gained over 2,500 points or by more than 30%.

    "If the price and time proportions between the waves in the 2003-2008 rally continue, the Sensex should hit 100,000 in about 15 years," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski said over phone.

    In its report for Asia-Pacific markets, based on analysis of technical charts, Elliottt Wave has said there were strong indications of "a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks".

    Extending its previous analysis in November last year, when it had said the Sensex might continue advancing for 15 years before the end of another bull run, Elliott Wave said the market seemed to have completed its most recent downward spiral in October 2008.

    The Indian stock market benchmark Sensex had scaled an all-time high of 21,206.77 points on January 10, 2008 before embarking on a downward journey, wherein it touched a low of 7,697.39 points on October 27.

    According to the Elliot Wave's April forecast report, the Sensex has declined in three waves to the October low, where it retraced approximately 50% of its 2003-08 rally on a percentage basis.

    The index has just broken out of its downward trend channel and the patterns seen recently and during the 2003-04 period "are the best argument for a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks," it added.

    Naming India among the "potential baby bulls" of the region, alongside Taiwan and Korea, Elliott Wave had said the completion of three waves of fall from their respective highs had made them "strong candidates to rally back to at least near their all-time highs -- if not beyond".

    Elliottt Wave has also classified Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Australia as long-term bear markets, while the "potential baby bulls" have been described as those which investors should consider for long-term investments.

    The report further noted that India had experienced long- running bearish phase in the past, indicating that the next bull-run could continue beyond its most recent all-time high levels.

    Until the early 2000s, the long bear market in India lasted for 11 years (1992-2003).

    "The five-wave pattern from 2003-08 is a road map to the future. Elliott waves progress in five waves and correct in three waves," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski said.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 27, 2010
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  3. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Why do people make such silly predictions?. It will be more meaningful for these guys to predict when will the countries come out of recession.

    To reach 100,000 points on sensex by 2025, we should be able create that much more wealth proportionately. Going by current sensex figures, we need to grow at least 10 folds from the present economy scale, which means our economy size should be around $10 trillions by 2025 compared to present $1 trillion. I think this is not possible in any sense with the pace our economy is moving.
     
  4. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    ^^ The sensex was already at 20000 levels before the meltdown. If we take that as a base, a 5 fold rise in 15 years is possible. the ratio of Market/Cap to GDP can become higher in a growing economy.

    I think a sustained 8-9% economic growth can take the sensex to that level. But yes, it is all meaningless predictions.
     
  5. SATISH

    SATISH DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    C'mon these are just wet dreams. Why do you people take it seriously?
     
  6. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    The rise of Sensex at that level only possible , if we have sustain a growth rate 8-9 % at least two decades, not the rate it is going now,they would better to predict the recovery of economy from the gloomy recession not dishing out one meaning less prediction like this.


    Regards
     
  7. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Indian stocks second best performers among BRIC in April

    Indian stocks second best performers among BRIC in April

    Friday, May 01, 2009


    New Delhi: Following a sharp recovery in the equity markets, Indian stocks have emerged as the second best performers as compared to their peers in three other BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia and China, giving close to 20% return in April.

    According to an analysis of MSCI Barra indices, a measure of returns from various stock markets across the world for foreign investors, Indian stocks have given the second highest return after Russia among the four BRIC countries during last month.

    Indian stocks have provided a return of nearly 19.54 per cent in April, while China and Brazilian markets have given 10.87% and 18.89% respectively.

    However, Russian equities have managed to outperform the Indian stocks in the month as it provided investors with a positive return of over 21%, as per the analysis of performances of Morgan Stanley Composite Indices (MSCI) for various nations.

    The 30-share benchmark index of Indian stocks, Sensex, gained close to 1,700 points in the month of April to settle at 11,403.25 points on April 29.

    Indian stocks have even outperformed the MSCI Barra's emerging market index, which includes all the developing world markets, giving returns to foreign investors to the tune of 16.28% in the month.



    Indian stocks second best performers among BRIC in April - Business News - News - MSN India - News
     
  8. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    Very good news on the performance of Indian Stock Markets, I think it overcame its continuous losing streak that began after world wide down turn of Stocks after the news of disaster on US property market.

    A nice find rage.

    Regards
     
  9. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Expect it to fall down drastically in following days.
     
  10. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    I think more or less it is now stable, because the way it was continuous down sliding is ended, how ever I think for the buyers it is better to wait for the result of the election out come, that holds the key.

    Regards
     
  11. A.V.

    A.V. New Member

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    Stock Market Index thread'

    thread to monitor major trends in the stock market, factors, analyses of future movements as well as institutionalized market participants and important commodities;
     
  12. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Sensex crosses 12,000-mark

    MUMBAI: Indian markets were witnessing a sharp rally Monday mirroring gains in the Asian markets. Traders were catching up with global markets after a long weekend back home. Metals, realty and bankex led the gains while pharmaceuticals space was modestly higher.

    "We expect the key Indian indices to rally as risk appetite is holding up globally. World markets were up while we enjoyed a long weekend. The intermediate trend remains up as things are looking up globally as well as back home. But, there is a likelihood of correction after 7-8 week's rally. The outcome of the Lok Sabha could provide a trigger for that. Another cause for concern is the spread of swine flu and its economic fallout."

    "US Treasury's stress test results will be out later this week, which will reveal the health of the large American banks. Monthly labour report is also due on Friday in the US."

    "On the whole, key global data points show continued signs of improvement, though the recovery is still fragile. There may be a few more hiccups going ahead but not as bad as the ones suffered in October-November and in early March. The upside will hinge on persistent improvement in economic conditions, pick-up in earnings and foreign capital inflows," said India Infoline note.

    Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex finally managed to breach 12,000 mark but failed to maintain the psychological level. At 12:35 pm, Sensex was at 11993.79, up 590.54 points or 5.18%. The index touched a high of 12003.44 and low of 11635.24.

    National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was near its day’s high at 3628.30, up 154.35 points or 4.44%. The broader index touched a high of 3629.45 and low of 3478.70

    BSE Midcap Index was up 3.43% and BSE Smallcap Index moved 3.08% higher.

    Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Metal Index was up 7.14%, BSE IT Index gained 5.78% and BSE Bankex moved 5.52% higher. BSE Healthcare Index was up 1.42%.

    On weekly charts, Nifty continues to close above its 50 week exponential moving average (currently placed at 3471.40 levels) however seems to consolidate around 3500 levels before witnessing any further directional action. Even on monthly charts levels of 3520-3530 is seen as strong hurdle. Also during the week, we observed FII remaining net buyer while sectoral indices failed to witness any particular directional action. Volumes in cash segment witnessed mild improvement on weekly basis. Net net, Nifty still needs to clear the levels of 3520 with strong volumes for further up move. FII inflow likely to hold key for further direction. For weekly trade, Nifty faces strong hurdle in the range 3520-3530 on higher side with next hurdle in the range 3690-3700. Any move below 3295-3300 range will see Nifty slipping towards 3150 levels on lower side,” said Reliance Money report.

    Biggest Sensex gainers were Sterlite Industries (11.72%), Mahindra & Mahindra (9.63%), HDFC (9.58%), Hindalco Industries (9.1%) and Tata Steel (8.84%).

    There were no losers in the 30-share index.

    Market breadth on BSE showed 1623 advances outnumbering 687 declines.

    Shares across the Asia-Pacific region were also on the rise following China’s encouraging manufacturing data which expanded for the first time in nine months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 4.68%, Singapore’s Straits Times rose 4.59% and China’s Shanghai Composite surged 3.28%. Japan’s stock market is closed for a three-day holiday.

    Meanwhile, European market opened firm. DAx was up 1.08% and CAC gained 0.48%.
     
  13. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Sensex Ends Up On Metals, Banks

    * MAY 7, 2009, 9:41 A.M. ET
    By SHIKHAR BALWANI

    [​IMG]

    MUMBAI -- Positive global cues and fund buying in metals, banks and some blue chips helped Indian shares end higher Thursday, but participants said political concerns are likely to keep risk appetite suppressed until the results of the country's federal elections are out.

    The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 1.4% to 12,116.94, after trading between 11,981.13 and 12,143.95 during the session.

    Dow Jones technical analysis tips the Sensex to trade between 11,880 and 12,350 Friday.

    On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty rose 1.6% to 3,683.90.

    Ashok Jainani, vice president of Khandwala Securities, said the markets remained choppy as gains from the rise in overseas equities were capped by domestic concerns on the outcome of the federal elections, which conclude May 13.

    "Nervousness is set to rise along with volatility as the election results day nears," he said, adding that investors are unlikely to commit big money until the results on May 16.

    Total traded volume on the Bombay Stock Exchange was 46.82 billion rupees, compared with 58.50 billion rupees Wednesday.

    The market breadth was positive with gainers beating losers 1,696 to 828, while 92 stocks were unchanged.

    Metal counters rose in line with their global peers as recent data from China and the U.S. showed signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity.

    Sterlite Industries ended as the biggest gainer on the Sensex, surging 13.8% to 517.45 rupees. Hindalco rose 11.3% to 70.20 rupees, while Tata Steel gained 8.8% to 294.35 rupees.

    ICICI Bank, India's largest private-sector lender, rose 1.5% to 549.10 rupees. State Bank of India gained 3.3% to 1,366.95 rupees, while mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. jumped 3.9% to 1,816 rupees.

    Reliance Industries, the country's biggest company by market capitalization, gained in line with the markets, ending up 1.8% at 1,914 rupees.

    Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, however, rose 3.7% and 3.1% to 839.30 rupees and 272.10 rupees, respectively.

    Cement stocks, which have outperformed the Sensex of late on better-than-expected fourth quarter results and a rise in cement prices, ended lower on profit taking.

    ACC fell 2.4% to 624.70 rupees, while Grasim Industries lost 1.5% to 1,774.70 rupees. The two stocks have rallied 34% and 48%, respectively, in 2009. In comparison, the Sensex has risen 24%.


    Write to Dow Jones Newswires editors at [email protected]


    Sensex Ends Up On Metals, Banks - WSJ.com
     
  14. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    I don't know what they mean by index surged because of global cues. It should be based on the market which is based in India for most of the companies. I would believe if IT shares see surge upon global cues, what about other companies, something doesn't add up.

    The present surge seems to me more like a spring surge. The moment index rises to a considerable level, the pros will dump them on the newbies who flock to market upon this good news. One should be careful in these times.
     
  15. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Sensex crosses 14k; day's trading halted

    MUMBAI: Trading
    was halted for the day immediately after it resumed at 1155 hours today at both the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock
    Exchange as the NSE Nifty breached the 20 per cent upper circuit. ( Watch )

    When trading resumed at 1155 hours, the Nifty surged to 4,384.30 over the previous close of 3,671.65, a rise of 712.65 points or almost 20 per cent.

    Similarly, the BSE Sensex zoomed by almost 2,100 points at 14,272.63 from the previous close of 12,173.42, a rise of 17.2 per cent.

    All the major sector-indices were in the positive zone. Earlier trading was halted at the BSE and NSE for two hours as for the first time in the history of the Indian stock markets the benchmark indices hit the upper circuit OF 10%, that too within a minute of opening of trade.

    With the Congress-led UPA getting over 260 seats in the general elections, it was expected that stock markets would react positively to the political developments, especially the formation of a stable government.

    The markets today opened for the first time after the electi

    Sensex crosses 14k; day's trading halted - India Business - Business - The Times of India
     
  16. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    This is I personally think the beginning of the turn around time of the Share Market , where hope of a stable pro -reform govt. fuel the sentiments and also the economy.

    Regards
     
  17. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    In one minute, India best mkt in world with 48% gain in ’09

    [​IMG]

    19 May 2009, 0106 hrs IST, Kumar Shankar Roy, TNN


    CHENNAI: The 2111-point surge on 'Magnificent' Monday pushed the Indian stock market ahead of competition as the best performing market across the world, giving investors an astounding 48% gains in 2009.

    With factors like the government's stability and the Left's fate settled, investors furiously bought index constituents in the 30-share BSE sensex, keeping the 'India story' alive and kicking.

    From sub-10,000 point levels at the end of 2008, the Indian benchmark has gained over 4,600 points in less than six months — thanks to the rally that started from early March.

    Before Monday, sensex had gained 26% in 2009 but the two minute bull blitz leading to the unprecedented over 2,000-point gain turned out to be the game-changer for the open slot of the best performing market this year. Marketmen expect India to turn into one of the lowest risk, highest growth investment destination globally.

    India could outperform emerging markets (EMs) in the coming 12-months especially if the government delivers on the policy front, said Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley. He has an year-end target of 15,300 for sensex.

    "Global investors will be chasing outperformance and Indian economy can offer them the best chance with 7-8% GDP growth in the next few years. While investors were earlier chasing value, now they will be chasing growth. The mindset has changed and there is lot of money waiting to come into India," said Seturam Iyer, chief investment officer at Shinsei AMC.

    With political risk less of an issue, Indian stock market — still under owned by FIIs — is being re-rated. With the re-rating process still unfinished, many expect India to continue to outperform other countries like China, Brazil, Taiwan, Russia and Vietnam.

    In terms of year-to-date performance, India's sensex is followed by China's Shanghai SE A-Share index with 45.6% gains, Taiwan's TAIEX (up 43.3%), Russia's RTS-2 (33.2% gain) and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite (up 31.2%), Bloomberg data shows.

    Even if equity markets head lower sharply later in the year, $10-15 billion of capital may be transferred from global financial investors to Indian corporates and their major shareholders before that, Credit Suisse analyst Nilesh Jasani said.

    While some experts feel that there could some consolidation before the market moves on, analysts at Credit Suisse believe that Indian stock market could overshoot considerably, global markets permitting, from pre-budget period to July.

    With investors in stock markets in developed nations such as Australia, France, the US, the UK and even Switzerland registering 1-6% losses or at best, flat gains in 2009, experts believe India's outperformance will bring in more FIIs, hedge funds


    In one minute, India best mkt in world with 48% gain in ?09 - India Business - Business - The Times of India

    x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x


    Highest weekly gain for markets in 17 years

    Saturday, May 23, 2009


    Mumbai: Stock indices rose, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or the Sensex, posting its highest weekly gain in 17 years.

    The Sensex closed at 13,887.15 points, up 150.61 points or 1.1 per cent. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 27.60 points, or 0.66 per cent, to close at 4238.50. Over the week, the benchmark index gained 14.08 per cent, which is the sharpest since the week ended March 27, 1992. It has also risen for 11 consecutive weeks for the first time since August 2005.

    The markets opened in the red in the morning. However, it picked up momentum in the afternoon session once it was clear that the Congress would retain key portfolios in the government. Among sectoral indices, consumer goods rose by 2.90 per cent, followed by bankex and healthcare that were up over 1.5 per cent. Both consumer durables and auto indices were down over 1 per cent.

    Larsen & Toubro, the country's largest engineering company, closed up 4.5 per cent, on expectation that infrastructure spending will be boosted to buoy an economy expanding at its slowest pace in six years.

    Source: Business Standard


    Highest weekly gain for markets in 17 years - Business News - News - MSN India - News
     
  18. luckyy

    luckyy Regular Member

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    Nifty & Sensex........

    For those who are having interest in stock market ..........

    members are requested to post their views , news , tips and pridiction on market ...
     
  19. luckyy

    luckyy Regular Member

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    how you see nifty going june months expiry..?

    will nifty cross 4800...
     
  20. luckyy

    luckyy Regular Member

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    will sensex touching 21000 this year ?
     
  21. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    Sensex ends little changed; monsoon, budget eyed- Market News-Stocks-Markets-The Economic Times

    Sensex ends little changed; monsoon, budget eyed
    23 Jun 2009, 1734 hrs IST, Mohammed Sabir, ET Bureau

    MUMBAI: Benchmarks ended volatile session flat Tuesday after recovering most of intra-day losses. Heavy-weights like Reliance Industries and ONGC alongwith positive European markets provided much needed support.

    Indices had opened sharply lower taking cues from the global markets. Traders were churning portfolios ahead of June series F&O expiry which kept the market choppy with negative bias.

    “We don’t see any bullish signs in the market. Upcoming budget and bad monsoon had held back traders and there was no solid commitment from either side. Nifty is likely to trade in broad range of 4100-4450 till budget,” said Rajesh Baheti, managing director, Crossseas Capital Services

    National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4247, down 11.75 points or 0.28 per cent. The broader index touched an intra-day low of 4143.25 and high of 4267.45.

    Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 14,324.01, down 2.21 points or 0.02 per cent. The index touched an intra-day high of 14394.19 and low of 14016.95.

    BSE Midcap Index was up 0.24 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index slipped 0.13 per cent.

    Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Oil&Gas Index gained 2.62 per cent and BSE Power Index moved 1.31 per cent higher. BSE Bankex declined 2.42 per cent and BSE Metal Index slipped 1.52 per cent.

    Biggest Nifty gainers comprised Grasim Industries (4.29%), ONGC (3.31%), Reliance Industries (3.22%), HCL Technologies (2.94%) and Tata Motors (2.65%).

    NALCO (-6.36%), ICICI Bank (-4.62%), Punjab National Bank (-3.63%), HDFC Bank (-3.74%) and Sterlite Industries (-2.98%) were the losers.

    ONGC has struck oil and gas in three new blocks, one of these finds its most significant in decades and holding the promise of significantly narrowing the energy-starved country’s demand-supply gap in the natural gas sector. The gas find at Krishna Godavari (K-G) basin off the Andhra coast could prove as rich as the Reliance Industries’ D-6 block, which, at its peak, is expected to double India’s current natural gas output.

    Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 1455 declines and 1116 advances.

    Meanwhile European markets continued to remain firm and US stock futures were marginally higher. At 5:30 pm IST, Dow Jones stock futures was up 0.33 per cent, S&P 500 stock futures gained 0.39 per cent and Nasdaq 100 stock futures moved up 0.26 per cent.
     

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