Destabilization of Myanmar: U.S. Plans “Rohingyaland”

Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by rockey 71, Jun 11, 2015.

  1. rockey 71

    rockey 71 Regular Member

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    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-de...-a-south-asian-kosovo-in-rohingyaland/5454716

    The Destabilization of Myanmar: U.S. Plan for Carving Out A South Asian “Kosovo” in “Rohingyaland”
    ByAndrew Korybko
    Global Research, June 10, 2015
    Oriental Review9 June 2015
    Region:Asia
    Theme:Intelligence



    [​IMG]
    (Please readPart Iprior to this article)

    Carving Out The Asian “Kosovo”
    There was no way that the US could resist politicizing such a tempting geopolitical crisis, and as expected, it found a way to diplomatically intervene. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell spoke out against the Myanmar government and sprinkled his statement with strong shades of ‘humanitarian intervention/responsibility to protect’ rhetoric when heannouncedthat “There’s the need for the government to do all it can to protect and assume responsibility for members of a long-suffering religious minority group, the Rohingya, thousands of whom have been forced to take to the high seas on dangerous makeshift vessels to escape persecution .” By claiming that the government is responsible for whatever happens to the Rohingya overseas (an utterly ridiculous assertion to level against any state), McConnell is slyly inferring that it has blood on its hands for initiating the highly publicized crisis. This opens the door for the US to potentially deepen its involvement in ‘mediating’ the situation and dictating proposed ‘solutions’ for bringing it to an end. In fact, President Obama alreadydrew a connectionbetween ‘democratization’ and the government’s treatment of Rohingyas, and the State Departmentdemandsthat they be given immediate citizenship. The US is clearly pursuing ulterior interests by using the humanitarian crisis as a cover for lecturing Myanmar, but what exactly is its end game?

    Towards A Federation Model:

    More than anything, the US wants to weaken the centrality of the Myanmar state and impose a federation model on the country. While such a governing template could be constructive step towards resolving certain countries’ internal crises (e.g. Ukraine), in others, it may only accelerate the unravelling of the state. Myanmar falls into the second category, as a federation system would inevitably lead to an archipelago of autonomous nation-states scattered all along the country’s periphery, and empowered within their new framework, they can more efficiently oppose central rule. Not only that, but they’d be extremely vulnerable to foreign lobbying in support of their anti-government positions, and the US could coopt them in order to guarantee that Myanmar remains weak and divided for the foreseeable future. If need be, the US could also manipulate each of the autonomous nation-states against one other in order to manufacture a territorial or political crisis that it could then exploit in intensifying its involvement in Myanmar’s internal affairs. It might even one day make the decision to dismantle the Union of Myanmar (the official name of the state) entirely, using the bloody Yugoslav model as a precedent in coaxing a disastrous ‘Reverse Brzezinski’ intervention from China.

    [​IMG]
    Aung San Suu Kyi, (left) purveyor of Western “pro-democracy” gags, now finds herself presiding over a movement using these gimmicks to call for racial genocide. A “monk” (right) puts his US State Department subsidized color revolution training to a new use… calling for genocide. So far, Suu Kyi has categorically failed to condemn the violence mainly because it is being carried out by the backbone of her own political network. Source: Land Destroyer

    The Rohingya Autumn:

    To get to this point, however, the US needs to deal a critical blow to the Myanmar government so that it reverses its decades-long policy of unity and finally accedes to devolving into a federation. As explained previously, the most conceivable way in which this could be achieved is if the Rohingya begin a full-scale rebellion against the authorities. A serious uprising in the coastal Rakhine State could more easily be supported by foreign patrons (i.e. the US) than the ones that have been ongoing for decades along the periphery, but if the latter are strategically ordered to renew their anti-government campaign in concurrent coordination with a Rohingya rebellion, then the authorities would be placed in an extremely precarious and unprecedented situation.

    The trigger for all of this destabilization could likely be theupcoming autumn general elections, scheduled to take place in either late October or early November. It’s for this exact reason that the US is so insistent that Myanmar grant the Rohingyas citizenship, since it wants them to partake in the election and throw the results for Rakhine State in a predetermined direction. This could take the form of voting for a fringe ‘protest candidate’ or party that has scarcely any hopes of an electoral victory, and when the Rohingya-affiliated candidate or party predictably loses, it could be a general signal for them to initiate their preplanned protest movement against the government. Under such a scenario, the Rohingyas could stage a Color Revolution demanding autonomy or outright independence as ‘compensation’ for what they allege was a ‘rigged election’ (echoing expected US and Western statements on the topic), and per the US’new patterned approachto domestic interference, this could easily transition into a full-fledged Unconventional War. A similar scenario is that a Rohingya Color Revolution/Unconventional War breaks out sometime this summer in the run-up to the elections, which would be intended to pressure the government in making political concessions to them and the other ethnic rebels prior to the nationwide vote.

    The Syrian Model:

    The US’ Hybrid War against Myanmar could most likely follow the Syrian Model in extensively involving supportive regional states, in particular, those in which many Rohingya have already settled. This means that Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are candidates for joining the covert ‘coalition of the willing’ against Myanmar, as each of them could potentially train some of their Rohingyas in Color Revolution and/or Unconventional Warfare techniques before sending them back to their home country for future deployment. Such a plan would mirror what Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are doing against Syria, since each of them has already been training regime change-minded Syrians (and members of dozens of other nationalities) on their territory for years now. What the highlighted Asian states would be doing against Myanmar is no different, since it follows the same tried-and-tested pattern that the US has perfected in the Mideast.

    Not all of those four countries may participate, however, since political considerations in Bangladesh and Thailand might preclude their involvement. Malaysia and Indonesia, while having their respective reservations, might be tempted to play an active role in the forthcoming conflict if the US succeeds in convincing them that they’d be fighting against anti-Muslim discrimination in Myanmar. It could also sweeten the deal by throwing in certain economic incentives, such as agreeing to bankroll most or all of the operation so long as those respective countries’ territories can be used as training bases. Additionally, it might pressure Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta by making the continuation of existing support (be it political, military, or economic) contingent on them joining the ‘coalition’ in their intended capacities. In exchange for their cooperation, the US might assure them of its support in combating ISIL if it ever establishes a foothold in theMindanao-Sulawesi Arc, as was nervously speculated upon at theShangri-La Dialoguemeeting late last month. It doesn’t matter whether the US is sincere in this pledge or not (it might even receive some strategic benefit by setting ISIL loose in the region), but what’s important here is that this promise alleviates Malaysia and Indonesia’s greatest insecurity fear and consequently influences them in agreeing to the Rohingya operation.

    Chaos For Creative Ends
    Weakening Myanmar isn’t the only reason why the US is supporting the Rohingyas, as it has more grand objectives in mind which would be greatly facilitated as well. Here’s what the US has in store for South Asia:

    US Bases:

    The creation of an independent or largely autonomous Rohingyaland could lead to the establishment of the first American base mainland South Asia, just as the manufacturing of “Kosovo” led to Camp Bondsteel as its first outpost in the Balkans. The US may exploit the humanitarian concern surrounding the Rohingyas to press for Western ‘observers’ to ‘monitor’ the situation in Myanmar, and the outbreak of any large-scale rebellion there could possibly invite an international intervention (‘justified’ on the false basis of ‘humanitarian intervention/responsibility to protect’) for their support. Whichever way it develops, it’s evident that the US has an interest in gaining a strategic military foothold in the region, since this would then allow it to simultaneously exert more direct influence on the rest of Myanmar, Bangladesh,Northeast India(which the US could contribute to further destabilizing in order to punish Modi for any major forthcoming multipolar moves), and China’smultiethnic and pivotal province of Yunnan.

    [​IMG]

    Break The BCIM:

    The US’ interest in this corner of South Asia is predicated on theBCIM trade corridorthat would connect Bangladesh, China, India, and Myanmar. Should this ambitious plan be implemented, then the resultant South Asian Silk Road would markedly decrease tensions between India and China, stabilize India’s restive Northeast and Myanmar’s rebellious periphery, and lay the groundwork for tangible development in this impoverished cross-border region. All of these benefits would advance multipolarity within the four-country corridor and fortify its defenses against creeping unipolarity, hence why the US has an important stake in sabotaging the project via its Rohingya manipulations.

    Pipeline Ploys:

    Energy geopolitics is the guiding motivation for the vast majority of American geopolitical decisions, not least of which is its described designs against Myanmar. China recently openedtwo strategic oil and gas pipelinesrunning through the country, which incidentally end in Rakhine State. As is known, Beijing is disproportionately dependent on energy shipments transiting the Strait of Malacca chokepoint, and the opening of alternative routes is of the highest strategic order in ensuring China’s energy security. While its moves in Myanmar are certainly a step in this direction, if Rakhine State is destabilized with a future crisis (Color Revolution and/or Unconventional War), or becomes autonomous/independent under American tutelage, then the strategic benefit that Beijing derived from these pipelines would be nullified and conversely become a considerable vulnerability.

    Anti-China Proxy War:

    The article earlier mentioned how destabilization in Myanmar could be exploited to tempt China into a conventional intervention, which is certainly probable, but it could also be used to destabilize it by other means as well. A return to full-scale warfare could lead to a humanitarian crisis in Yunnan with hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding into the province. Limited fighting between the Myanmar government and Kokang rebels earlier this year created a minor international sensation when anunexpected number of peoplefled to China, some of whom were supposedlyturned back. The People’s Republic hasreportedly had difficultyaccommodating the refugees, demonstrating that it was relatively unprepared for the situation. One should understand that the fighting which prompted the humanitarian exodus was relatively small scale and of minor intensity, and that any real resumption of ethnic warfare along the entire Myanmar-China border would dwarf the earlier refugee crisis and create severe challenges for Beijing.

    Jihadist Playground:

    Last but not least, the Rohingya issue could become a rallying cry for international jidhadists due to the shades of Buddhist-on-Muslim violence. Experts are already warning thatISIL could recruit disgruntled Rohingyas, and one mustn’t forget that itsAl Qaeda rivalis also looking to set up shop in the region as well. While a plethora of exploitable regional opportunities present themselves for whichever jihadist group is interested , the Rohingya cause is the only one which has already received global recognition and near-universal sympathy, thereby implying a degree of ‘moral legitimacy’ for aspiring terrorists. Should ISIL or Al Qaeda nest themselves in Rakhine State, the destabilizing repercussions would be enormous and reverberate throughout the entire region. In fact, it might even prompt India and/or Bangladesh to stage some sort of intervention, especially if Rakhine-based terrorists carry out attacks against their countries. Suffice to say, the introduction of Islamic terrorism to Rakhine State would assuredly lead to the further internationalization of the Rohingya issue and constitute a dire security threat for the region’s governments.

    Concluding Thoughts
    The plight of the Rohingyas elicits understandable concern from many, butthe unfortunate aspect is that the US is manipulating the world’s short-term emotional response to the current migrant crisis in order to pursue its long-term geopolitical interests in South Asia.The intended creation of a pro-American autonomous or independent Rohingyaland is akin to the same strategic pattern that it first spearheaded in “Kosovo”, except the US can now achieve its goals via the indirect Hybrid War lessons that it’s perfected in Syria. The crusade for state creation is inherently tied to the destruction of the targeted host state, which in this case would see Rohingyaland (and perhaps many other ethnic nation-states) being baptized through a sea of fire in separating from Myanmar. The US has concrete geopolitical reasons for why it supports the Rohingyas, chiefly concerning the establishment of its first intended base in mainland South Asia and its desire to cut off China’s non-Malacca pipeline routes through Myanmar. Additionally, with a firm regional outpost in Rohingyaland (whether direct or via proxy), the US can obstruct the multipolar BCIM trade corridor and leverage influence in Bangladesh, Northeast India, the rest of Myanmar, and perhaps even further afield in Yunnan Province. The coming months will be indicative of how far the US plans to go in supporting Rohingyaland, but by all current indications, it seems that this is a cause which Washington won’t give up on anytime soon.

    Andrew Korybkois the political analyst and journalist forSputnikwho currently lives and studies in Moscow, exclusively for ORIENTAL REVIEW.
     
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  3. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Nope....India will not let that happen..... Neither will china.....
     
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  4. Oblaks

    Oblaks Regular Member

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    First of all what is there to destabilize in Myanmar? What a purported article.
     
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  5. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    :dude:

    "Rohingyaland”.........?....!

    Total 4% people are Muslims in Burma, according to the 2008 government census.

    :troll:
     
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  6. rockey 71

    rockey 71 Regular Member

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    You miss the point. This is not about Burma. This is about Arakan which was invaded and occupied by the King of Ava till the East India Co entered.
     
  7. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    You mean this?
    [​IMG]

    This won't happen.
     
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  8. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Silly article . USA has absolutely nothing to gain from this.
     
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  10. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Burmies are not dysfunctional like lslamic countries. Having said that I think some Americans are going to scam funds from Arab nations in the name of Rohingya Muslims.

    BTW American pressure on Burma will make Burma closer to India.

    I was with the opinion of invading Burma to establish democracy, in case China gets aggressive at our borders in a nexus with Pakistan (two front war) and we be able to thrust from east Burma into Chinese heart land with our missiles covering every Chinese coastal City without InN required to swim across the South China sea.

    Going by the cooperation and relationship we enjoy with military Junta, and our current issues to neutralize cross border terrorism for the development of NE we need to avoid being part of any such American adventurism.

    Not to mention the larger strategic approach of India has been always to keep American presence in subcontinent scarce if not zero.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2015
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  11. apple

    apple Tihar Jail Banned

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    And neither will America.

    Was impressed and (unfortunately) quite surprised that so many people on this thread could recognise this article for the BS it is.

    Am guessing the author of this article, Andrew, likes it when his Russian "friends" call him Andrei.

    Didn't read the story the but judging by the subtitles of the paragraphs it's typical Russian BS.

    For a start, the West isn't particularly happy with Kosovo. But, in general we consider our involvement their to have beneficial results. No one who understands the West would use the "spectre" of Kosovo to criticise a foreign oolicy (which in this case doesn't exist) and, more importantly, it's not a situation anyone in the west wants to repeat or use a model. Likewise Syria, which he also mentions. There's no "Syrian Solution" or at least there isn't one visible.

    Talking Kosovo, Syria, Hybrid War (which is what the west claims Russia is up to in the Ukraine), Federalisation and "Rohingya Autumn" are just pathetic attempts to try and get the reader to associate the situation in Burma with what this author considers to be failures/ crimes commited by American foreign policy.

    One line from the articles did catch my eye
    "More than anything, the US wants to weaken the centrality of the Myanmar state and impose a federation model on the country."
    No one in the English speaking word, which Andrew is (/was) presumably a part of, understands what the hell federation/ federalisation/ etc... mean. It's something Russians talk about. No one else knows what Federation actually is Andrew, it's not something anyone wants, far less wants "more than anything".

    And the basic fundamental point which he totally ignores, the Burmese government has gotten a lot of support from the west, over the years.and Aung San Suu Kyi has a lot of very powerful supporters too. If this author had put down his Tolstoi for a while and studied the west's relations with SE Asia he'd realise how stupid his article is, And while maybe in his circles Islamist extremism is all the west fault, really, really can't believe he can be that stupid to suggest any western country, let alone America would try to help Islamic seperatists create some federalised something.

    Oh and fundamental point 2, Myanmar neighbours China. China worries people and destablising one of their neighbours makes no sense,.
     
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  12. rockey 71

    rockey 71 Regular Member

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    1.Andrew Korybko is a Moscow based reporter working for Western media. He is certainly not anti-West. People suspect he has links deep into US admin. My comments are made assuming this article isn't total B/S.
    2. Obviously USA/West are planning an E Timor or Kosovo like solution. China and India may not find that agreeable. Sino-Burma border has witnessed violent fighting for long. This has escalated in recent times. China is facing a truth that it should have known always - that the Burmese are a treacherous/unreliable people. Has been so throughout their history. India has made major inroads into Burma, specifically Arakan at the cost of China. Not China, but India is rebuilding the Akyab Port. A Kaladan Waterway Deal gives India direct access to the Bay of Bengal through the Arakan Yoma Ranges. This and the recent transit deals with BD will assist her in quelling the North East insurgencies.
    3.Although Andrew Korybko feels Thailand may not get involved but that may not be true till the end. Thais have heavy investments in Burma. On the other hand Thai-Burma border has always remained violent and open to opium trade. There are tribes who dwell trans-border.
    4. BD's foreign and national security are aligned with India's under the current Hasina/BAL govt. India would prefer BD pursues secular identity. This may been the main obstacle for BD to come forward to assist the Rohingyas, who are a Muslim people. In fact throughout history Burma has trounced upon Arakan whenever Bengal was weak. If GOB had been strong, few warnings and border skirmishes would have kept Burma in leash. We have the example of Gen Zia who had warned the Burmese to take back the refugees or he would send them back armed.
    5. In 1992 BD was prepared to invade Arakan to settle these people. The Americans and the Muslim bloc had come out in full support. But China, then recovering from the international fall out of the Tien Mien Square incident, had dissuaded BD. In hindsight China may not find that decision has been helpful.
    6. Eastern and Southern BD were integral part of the Arakan Kingdom till Emperor Aurangzeb had them annexed. Since the start of Japanese occupation, WW II, the flow of Rohingya refugees never ceased even for a day. Taking two generations in the count there must be around 2 mlln Rohingyas living in BD as our citizens. They are doctors, lawyers, journalists, traders, bankers - they are everywhere. Some leading hotels and even banks are owned by them. Khatunganj, Chittagong is the commercial heart of BD. The leading merchants there are Rohingyas. This is a complex human issue which unfortunately cannot be solved humanely because of Burma's stance.
     
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  13. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    To stir up a hornet's nest like Burma?

    Internal conflict in Burma

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Myanmar

    KIA of Kachin is reported to hav an American connection, Shan factions backed by their Thai brethren.

    Karen, Naga, Arakan, Wa, Kokang... where the military junta's writ out of Naypyitaw doesn't run often enough. a messy mess to sort out...

    some genius recommends India invade Burma to prop up democracy and open a new front there to penetrate China??

    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2015
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  14. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

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    @hit&run

    America did a balls up job in Iraq and rest of the middle east, so spreading democracy to Burma is not even on part II of their "to do list".
    Is there any country the Republicans do not want to invade? But from the looks of it Hilary is coming back to White House in 2016 so there goes the plan down the drain.

    Messing up and destabilizing a country which is sandwiched between China and India is not going to sit well with either of them and works opposite to the "propping India against China" policy.

    As for the BD invading Burma, @rockey 71, dude pray to the heavens that you didn't do it and or else they would have pummeled you to the ground.
     
  15. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    We have been giving democracies to couple of countries. Last one was Maldives before it was East Pakistan. Next will be Tibet or Baluchistan. Since you will fight till last Pakistani we will make sure that last Pakistani falls before getting Tibet. So let me put Baluchistan first and then Tibet.

    Our PM just lectured your nation about democracy, right at the heart of your nation addressing young students of a central university, and you could not do a squat.

    Next time you come back again sulking all around Pakistani forum for tips, I will tell you how to quote a poster and the context in which he has made an assertion. If you prove your intelligence, I will tell you how it will be done as well.
     
  16. rockey 71

    rockey 71 Regular Member

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    Yes, you have hit the target. Those who control America launch wars, promote conflicts, encourage immorality and even cause famines to make money. Victory is not their aim; the war/conflict itself is. They sell more weapons, they dish out more loans and they profit by Urban Renewal.
     
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  17. rockey 71

    rockey 71 Regular Member

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    Democracy is an indigenous thing. Nobody gives this to anybody. No, we didn't hear Modi lecturing us on democracy. He knows very well the sacrifices we have made for democracy. He knows the Bengalis are among the top democracy loving people in the world.
     
  18. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    You missed the context (two front war) in which I made that assertion. You missed the important cardinal point i.e. democracy which means there will be stake holders withing Burma to restore stability.

    I can explain it further If you would ask and we have a thread on two front war which is now dormant for long. Further more I have already conceded that at present there is no need and It came from my reading of posters @pmaitra @CrYsIs who has forced me to think in terms of first developing NE; which I think is reasonable, before we upgrade our offensive capabilities from present defensive capabilities.
     
  19. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    I wasn't talking about Dhaka university so your whole argument will be not apt for me to debate further.
     
  20. rockey 71

    rockey 71 Regular Member

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    In short, if there was democracy under the current Hasina govt, then she wouldn't have been the PM.
     
  21. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    I am still not getting gist of your point, Sir.

    If there was democracy in West and East Pakistan then your nation would have never required Indian intervention in the first place. Your Democracy was looted in day light and even being in majority and wining the election military rule was imposed.
     

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