DEMOGRAPHÄ°C CRÄ°SÄ°S. The extinction rate of Russians considerably quickened

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by ajtr, Apr 22, 2010.

  1. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    According to Russian media outlets, Russia is covered with a new wave of demographic crisis. A natural reduction in number of Russian women of active childbearing age has been going on since early 2008.

    According to forecasts of the head of health ministry of Russia, Golikova, by 2020 the number of Russian women at the age of 20-29 would decrease by 4.6 million, or 38%.

    For normal growth of the population of Russia 3 million should be born every year, this figure does not exceed 2.08 million today. And now it will only decrease.

    To keep the growth of demographic indicators, the average Russian family must have at least 4-5 children, that is completely excluded for Russians in present conditions.

    "Today many talk about the impending "demographic hole", but in fact Russia is firmly seated in it, - says director of the institute of international studies of family, deputy director of the Institute of demography school of economics, Zakharov. - Today only to replace the dead Russian families need to have at least two or three children. Thus, an inevitable continuation of the process of population decline expected for Russia.

    The depopulation of Russia can be avoided if annually accept on a constant residence up to 1 million migrants. But it is also unlikely, as well as large-scale migration to Russia of "compatriots abroad", on what for some reason the Russian athorities seriously hope.

    "Firstly, Russia is waiting for the reduction and the aging of workforce - continues Zakharov. - World history has no examples of such a strong reduction in the population of working age. "Battle of the staff" is ahead.

    Secondly, the final collapse threatens the existing pension system - numerically small taxpayers will not take out the necessary level of compulsory contributions for the benefit of children and the elderly.

    Thirdly, numerous migrants with diffrent culturies root into the Russian society, who are needed for the Russian economy, even in a crisis. Similarly, many civilizations had disappeared from the world map.

    Fourthly, we are waiting for the inevitable decline in the FSB, the Interior Ministry, the army.

    Fifthly, Russia will face the problem of demolition or preservation of the vast amounts of housing and social and economic infrastructure in the emptying small cities and towns ..."




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  3. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    The Eurabian threat

    More and more, references to ‘unsustainable immigration’ in Europe are code for rising concerns about the ever-expanding Muslim presence there. Recently, Belgium passed a law banning any Islamic veil that covers the face. The logic is that those who can see other people’s faces should not be concealing their own. France is about to pass similar legislation, and no doubt other countries will do so as well.
    Although the number of Muslim women affected by these laws is tiny, this shift away from the generally tolerant attitudes of the past is an indicator of the mounting resentment the local population is feeling about the millions of Muslims in their midst. Last year, a YouTube video called “Muslim Demographics” was viewed by over eleven million people. The video contrasts low European birth rates with the rapid growth of European Muslims, and then indulges in demographic fantasy by extrapolating concocted figures to conjure up a scenario in which locals in many cities would be outnumbered by Muslims.

    For instance, the video claims that the average Muslim woman in France bears 8.1 children, whereas the actual figure is around three. Similarly, it asserts that 30 per cent of the French population below 20 years of age is Muslim; the real number is 5.7 per cent. The narrative concludes that by 2050, Muslims could outnumber local Europeans, thus effectively taking over the continent. Such an Islamised Europe has been dubbed Eurabia by doom-mongers on the right.

    However, whatever the actual demographics, the local population has begun to feel very jittery about the prospects of retaining the dominant white, Christian culture that has held sway for centuries. Already, many Europeans in cities with large Muslim populations believe they are outnumbered.

    The reality is that in Europe, the vast majority of legal and illegal immigrants are Muslim. One reason, of course, is that the countries they come from tend to be desperately poor, and are growing increasingly dysfunctional. Britain is a magnet for immigrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria. Spain is a popular destination for North Africans due to its proximity to Africa, and the ease with which migrants can then move on to other European countries. France has traditionally been the landing place of choice for Muslims from its former colonies.

    Thus, for most Europeans, immigrants mean Muslims. Although there is a rising clamour to halt the influx of migrants, Eric Kaufmann doubts this will ever happen, given the low population growth rate in Europe. In his article, Europe’s Return to the Faith in the April issue of Prospect, the author argues that with a declining local population, the current inflow of 250,000 Muslims into the EU will probably continue. Although at 0.5 per cent of the EU’s population, this might seem like a trickle, over time it will have a significant demographic impact.

    A major reason for European concern over this silent invasion is the widely shared perception that Muslim minorities do not integrate into local culture as easily as other immigrants do. Kaufmann cites several surveys that indicate a hardening of the faith among Muslim youth, as against the tendency among younger Christians to become less observant than their parents. For instance, 37 per cent of the 16-24 age group of Muslims in the UK have professed a desire to live under Sharia law, as against just 17 per cent of those over 55. Understandably, this growing fundamentalism among Muslims born and brought up in Europe is causing alarm bells to ring in a Europe that has already suffered from several Islamic terrorist attacks.

    Although projections show that the number of Muslims will increase sharply over the next few years, the growth rate is showing a steady decline. According to Kaufmann, Pakistani and Bangladeshi total fertility rates (TFR) in England and Wales have fallen from 9.3 in 1971 to 4.9 in 1996. Currently, both groups have a TFR of around three, which, while still higher than the national average, is significantly lower than the peak figures of a generation ago.

    However, even according to the most conservative projections, Sweden will have the highest percentage of Muslims in Europe by 2030 with 14 per cent, while Britain will have 7 per cent as against 2.8 per cent in 2001. Beyond these statistics and projections lies the world of perceptions and politics. Already, the presence of large pockets of often militant Muslim youths has brought the issue of immigration on to the public agenda in many European countries. With elections due in a month in the UK, many observers expect this to be a hot topic for debate between the major parties. The rise of right-wing parties like the British National Party is largely ascribed to the fear and resentment caused by large-scale immigration. In France, too, the growing popularity of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s Front National is a sign of things to come. Holland and Italy are seeing a surge of anti-immigrant sentiment.

    Christopher Caldwell, a journalist who has been reporting on Muslims in Europe for over a decade, has written a controversial book on the dynamics and dangers of unimpeded Muslims into Europe. The title and subtitle give a clue about the contents: Reflections on the Revolution in Europe: can Europe be the same with different people in it? His answer is an emphatic no. Caldwell’s is one of the many voices in Europe that question and criticise the immigration policies that have allowed and encouraged such large-scale immigration. Indeed, his focus is specifically on the growing presence of Muslims in Europe, as this quote from his book shows:

    “…As soon as it became obvious that certain immigrants proposed to establish foreign cultures on European lands, immigration — and Muslim immigration a fortiori — appeared in a different light. It appeared in the light of a project to claim territory. The establishment of Muslim institutions was worrisome, no matter how innocent their ends or how peaceful their ethos. In 2005, the English journalist Rod Liddle saw the first outlines of a Muslim state in Europe. He wrote that there was already ‘a string of towns and cities, from Rennes in the south, through Lille, Brussels, Antwerp… to Aarhaus in Denmark in the far north, where the Muslim population approaches or exceeds 20 per cent (and in some cases constitutes a majority).”

    Caldwell goes on to voice a fundamental European concern: “It was not just that young Muslims were assimilating too slowly into European culture as the generations passed, it was that they were dis-assimilating…”

    It is precisely this thought that is provoking a backlash, and may well drive an anti-immigrant movement in Europe.
     

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