Decline of Empires

Discussion in 'Military History' started by pmaitra, Nov 23, 2014.

  1. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    DECLINE of EMPIRES: The Signs of Decay

    DECLINE of EMPIRES: The Signs of Decay - YouTube

    Strongly recommended discussion, mainly by James Heddle.

    Also, please post your views on why certain empires declined or decayed. Pick any Empire and state the signs that you see as being the causes for their decline.
     
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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  4. prohumanity

    prohumanity Regular Member

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    NOT so fast ,Professor ! There is a difference between past empires and United States...US is resilient, flexible and adapts faster to new realities. US has already started planning downsizing of some military bases and wants to make alliances with like minded democratic nations whose interests and economies are interdependent. Even with all the wars in recent times, there is calm and discipline in US..there is no widespread protests, riots, hunger or scarcity. There is still rule of law mostly. If it was a regular empire, there would have been a lot of disruption by now. Yes, I agree that US may suffer relative decline in coming decades but your timeline is out of whack. US empire will go into slow motion decline and it will take at least 40 more years . There is no nation on horizon to replace US power...China is being promoted by some BUT China has huge weaknesses of its own and now, is in an economic decline . In next 20 years, Chinese economy is going to grow about 5% or even less. Don't forget,Chinese economic growth was largely due to US market access which China is losing steadily. European Union is chronic deflation and not going to be able to match US. India is still in early stage of its development..at least 4 or 5 decades away from a very major power status.
    As much as people wish, United States is going to remain at the helms for next 40 years. World is going to gradually become MULTIPOLAR and US may be considered the last empire in history books of the future.
    MY PREDICTION: USA to remain greatest power on Earth until year 2050.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2014
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  5. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    @prohumanity, I agree with you, that the US decline, which has already started, will be slow.

    A collapse of the US, in my view, will not be a disintegration of the US, but a disintegration of the ruling cabal, and the nation, hopefully, will revert back to its constitution.

    The disintegration of the US Empire, here, in my view, refers to the European vassals of the US. We should be able to look beyond the de jure administrative borders of the US, and look at the de facto political borders of the US Empire, which includes all the NATO states.
     
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  6. mattster

    mattster Respected Member Senior Member

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    I chuckle at the term you used "European vassals of the US".

    If "European Vassals" means having to spend a small portion of your GDP on defense, and having the big US military provide for your security while you spend your own money on your people and your generous social programs, etc ........then you could consider the Europeans "very lucky vassals" indeed.

    Trust me when I say that - when the US reaches the point where it can no longer afford to guarantee the security of Western Europe and Japan and those nations will have to bear the full brunt of having to pay for their own defense, they are not going to be so happy !!

    I think the last real empire in the true sense of the word was the British empire, some may argue its was the Soviet Empire.

    But the so called "US Empire" is a is group of states who want to be aligned with the US. That alignment will naturally become weaker if there is no one threatening the alliance. It will become stronger if a strong threat emerges. So even weak states that are part of the alignment are free to implement changes in policy that the US does not agree with. They definitely a lot of pressure from the US but it does not mean that they don't make their own decisions. So in that sense - the so called US Empire is unique......its made up of members who can leave if they want to, but they will have to fend for themselves.
     
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  7. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I chuckle at the "kind" reception most of your posts get in this forum.

    Ok.
     
  8. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    Does this thread only apply only to American empire or to all empires? Because the empire that went puff the fastest was the Soviet Union.

    Cold War Museum
     
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Why don't you spend some time and listen to the video in the opening post? That way, your question, whether this thread applies to all empires, will be answered.

    In general, I expect people to listen to the two videos posted here before commenting, but not everyone can be expected to be responsible enough to do that.
     
  10. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    My prediction is 2022. This gentleman is wrong about one thing - it will not be a peaceful transition for USA. Actually USSR was very lucky to have a peaceful transition.

    USA is predicted to go through severe chaos because USA is basically a bankrupt country. The only thing standing between chaos and order is US military. If US military falls, the ability to rule USA disappears as dollar will crash. Pampered people of USA cannot adjust to new reality that they have to work hard for menial jobs for just feeding themselves.

    USA is run by some very smart people. They have thought of every eventuality except one - demise of dollar. I have seen some reports of "planned demise of dollar", but these are hogwash. Demise of dollar is an unplanned contingency.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2014
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  11. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yes. But Soviet empire is history already. Soviet empire fell due to same age-old reason - two few earn, too many spend in mature empires.
     
  12. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Ukraine cannot win as Ukraine is practically abandoned already. Kiev is getting loans, not aid. Loans have to repaid. There are no NATO tanks in the streets of Eastern Ukraine.

    Ukraine wants to join NATO. The West says it likes the idea. This is where the relationship is stuck.

    The question IF NATO wants to go to war with Russia over Ukraine has been answered already - the answer is No. The economic sanctions is not a replacement of military action. Iraq was a different situation. USA could afford to invade Iraq. The nuclear equation with Russia is not conducive to all out war.

    Yes Kiev can win a conventional military conflict with Russia. This is always a possibility. However the chances are remote here as well as political actions of Kiev have already annoyed a lot of Ukrainians. Just saying Pro-EU parties won the election is not going to win the military conflict. Indications are Ukrainian soldiers are already demoralized. Winter in the trenches is a very difficult proposition. Kiev does not have sound finances. Bluster is easy but maintaining an army is not.
     
  13. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I do not wish a violent transition in the US. I wish a peaceful transition, but the fact that many people own guns makes it a realistic estimate that a transition will be bloody.
     
  14. prohumanity

    prohumanity Regular Member

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    I am surprized by your catastrophic predictions about US decline. US is certainly not as fragile as some people are projecting it ..it's much stronger . Pulling out some forces and closing bases will save US a lot of money. The real losers will be Japan and European countries as they will have to come up with their own money to fund militaries to defend themselves. The free ride of American military and funding will be over for Europe and Japan. That savings can be used to provide healthcare and better education for US population. The decline of US will be very slow and orderly and people will adjust to it. After 9/11, I used to hear a lot alarming dramatic predictions about US falling from the cliff....nothing of that sort happened...yes..economy slowed ,people lost houses and savings..BUT they adjusted to new reality beautifully. Those who were predicting doom are wondering why US is still alive and kicking.....I say because Americans are great people ,tolerant and reasonable. Yes, US politicians are low quality and most of them don't deserve to lead this great nation and its amazing people.
    As for dollars demise...the correct word is "dollars slow motion decline" which US is already factoring in for last 10 years in its planning. Dollar is not collapsing overnight...mark my words. This process will take 20 to 30 years. American standard of living will become more like European and that's not so bad.
    What if US makes great trade alliances with democratic nations like India and its economy surges once again....that will delay dollars decline even further in the future.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2014
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  15. Peter

    Peter Senior Member Senior Member

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    No offense sir,but which side of the bed did you wake up today??
     
  16. Peter

    Peter Senior Member Senior Member

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  17. Peter

    Peter Senior Member Senior Member

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    Decline of the Roman Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
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  18. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    USA has many positives. The big negative is the empire that USA has created. Maintaining the empire is a big expense. USA has fallen to a cycle of less revenue compared to expenses for last 40 years.

    On top of deficit in government revenues, USA has lost competitiveness in most industries.

    All empires have a big weakness. They fall due to overspending.

    If US dollar falls slowly, that would have been good. But all indications are that dollar will fall suddenly and catastrophically.
    US dollar is not adjusting to the reality due to wealthy people's desire to keep their money in dollars.

    However history is replete with instances of monied people sitting on the wrong side of political change.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2014
  19. mattster

    mattster Respected Member Senior Member

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    This reminds me of the people who keep predicating that the Chinese economy is going to blow up. Every 5 years for the last 25 years or so, they come around and print articles about how the Chinese economy is going to crash in the next 5 years.......then 5 years later when it does not happen - they come back and move the date up another 5 years.

    Comparing the Brits and the Soviets to the US is rather intellectually lame.

    The British empire produced and created very little - It was all based on siphoning off every ounce of wealth and sweat off the backs off the natives around the far-flung empire. The Brits sucked the wealth out of all the nations it ruled - both small and large - the crown jewel of this empire being India......whose fueding maharajas were more than happy to serve the Brit.

    The Soviets on the other hand did the reverse - They financed and supported a whole bunch of satellite states/allies who produced nothing with their hopelessly backward socialist economies.The Soviets took the concept of "Empire" and turned it on its head, by becoming the central banker to a bunch of bankrupt states plus their own bankrupt industrial base. Its no surprise that it collapsed under its own weight.

    The "US Empire" if you want to call it that, is built upon the industrial, and technological strength of the country. The US did not have to go overseas and milk other countries dry. Everything from the first auto assembly-line to the aircraft industry to semiconductors to computers to software and the Internet were created from here. This is what makes the US more resilient. It has both the size in terms of population and the educational and industrial and military infrastructure to compete with the best. It is still a young state...unlike Europe and China - everywhere you go in the US, you see people having babies. It also does not carry the huge financial burden that the social-democratic welfare states of Europe have in terms of generous cradle-to-grave benefits that its gives its citizens.

    Off-course the US has made their fair share of mistakes/blunders like Iraq along the way......but people here have a "can do" and a "never quit" attitude.

    The competition will get harder and the gap between the US and China and the EU will narrow both in terms of wealth and power, but the US will not dropout of the Top 3 anytime soon...at least not in our lifetimes. The Chinese economy may overtake the US economy in sheer numbers but there will still be half-a-billion restless Chinese living near subsistence levels. The Chinese are not going to take over high tech innovation the way they dominated low-tech manufacturing......nobody is going to cede that ground without a bitter fight to the end.

    Those who point to all the problems the US has should ask themselves this - Do any of the countries competing with the US for No:1 spot have lesser problems. The US certainly has its problems.....but are US problems any worse than China or India problems ?

    Like I said at the top of my post - The people who predict that the US will be history by 2020.....will be back here in 2020 predicting that it will happen in 2030.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2014
  20. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    As long as US continues to be THE MAGNET for best of human intellect, there is no competing with US. And, I see no signs of US becoming any lesser attractive than it has been.
     
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  21. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    There was statistic that normally three generations of a "dynasty" - "empire" survive and stay in power and after that they decline.
     

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