Dealing with Pakistan

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by arnabmit, Jan 10, 2015.

  1. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    Dealing with Pakistan – Part 1

    Pakistan is four nations stuck together by the glue of violent theocracy. The ironies spill over. Founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah was a Shia. Today Shias are slaughtered daily, especially in the seething cauldron that is Karachi.

    Muhammad Zafarullah Khan, Pakistan’s first foreign minister and the first Pakistani President of the UN General Assembly, was an Ahmadi. He would be horrified at the way his people are being murdered in Pakistan – with the full sanction of the law.

    In 1984, President General Zia-ul-Haq issued the anti-Ahmadiyya ordinance which forbade Ahmadis from calling themselves Muslims. Ever since Ahmadis have been the target of murderous assault by the Pakistani state and other fundamentalists.

    Of Pakistan’s 188 million people, 105 million are Punjabis. Another 40 million are Sindhis and Mohajirs, 28 million Pashtuns and 7 million Baloch. Minorities, including Hindus and Christians, make up the rest.

    The Pakistani army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are dominated by Punjabis. Most Pashtuns – though not all – have been co-opted. Sindhis retain their political base but their leaders are feudal, exemplified by the wealthy and corrupt Bhutto family. The Mojahirs – émigrés from India during partition – continue to be marginalized and persecuted.

    The Pakistani Punjabi is an odd character. Rooted in an Indus civilizational culture, he has a split personality, hankering after an Arab-Persian-Turko ancestry that eludes him.

    But Pakistan’s problems run deeper than ethnicity or demographics. In the 1960s, Pakistan’s GDP was around 30% of India’s. Its per capita income was significantly higher than India’s. Today Pakistan’s GDP ($250 billion) is barely 12% of India’s and its per capita income significantly lower. The gap is widening every year.

    Pakistan’s stated ambition is parity with India: militarily, economically and geopolitically. Terrorism – or death by a thousand cuts – has been its modus operandi since the 1980s to achieve this objective.

    The Peshawar massacre changes nothing. Pakistan continues to train, fund and sponsor Punjab-based terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jammat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). It fights only the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. The latter, Tehreek-e-Taliban (TeT), has sworn to uproot the Pakistani state and took responsibility for the Peshwar massacre.

    The Afghan Taliban has meanwhile battled the US and NATO in Afghanistan. Pakistan has, under severe US pressure, reluctantly launched a campaign against it.

    But the Punjab-based Pakistani terrorists (Hafiz Saeed, Zaki ur Rehman Lakhvi, et al) remain pampered guests, used by the Pakistani army to launch terror attacks on India. By doing so, a psychotic nation that Pakistan has over the decades developed into hopes to reduce the “asymmetry” – economic, military and geopolitical – that exists with India.

    Every time a terror attack – or even an aborted attempt at one as in the case of the Pakistani vessel that blew up off Porbandar – occurs, a counter-narrative emerges from Islamabad, faithfully mimicked by sections of the Indian media and former diplomats, bureaucrats and armed forces officers. This narrative tries to downplay such incidents and question the credibility of India’s security apparatus.

    Those who have a vested interest in Track-II or back channel talks are especially eager to draw an equivalence between India and Pakistan. There, of course, is no equivalence though Pakistan and its Indian ventriloquists strive to manufacture one.

    So what are India’s options? We can’t change our neighbours but we can certainly change their delinquent behavior. The strategy must straddle four fronts: diplomatic pressure; economic sanctions; military action; and covert operations.

    The Modi government has signalled its intent by retaliating with force to Pakistan’s mortar shelling across the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB). But the four-pronged strategy to deal effectively with Pakistan must go deeper and further.

    Both Afghanistan, following the NATO troop drawdown, and Balochistan, in deep ferment, have implications for India’s strategy. Afghans and Baloch have longstanding antipathies towards Pakistan and goodwill for India. Both must form part of India’s overall strategy to neutralize Pakistan’s delinquent behavior.

    These measures must be practical, well thought-out and robust. Of that and more in part-2 of this article.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2015
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  3. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    Dealing with Pakistan – Part 2

    Nasir Dagaarzai is the central character in a film, “The Line of Freedom”, on the Balochistan insurgency. Directed by British filmmaker David Whitney and produced by brothers Noordin and Bharval Mengal, the film tells the story of Dagaarzai who was kidnapped, tortured and murdered by the Pakistani military.

    Dagaarzai’s murder is part of Pakistan’s brutal “kill and dump” policy against the Baloch people. In 2013 Ajit Doval, now National Security Advisor (NSA), had warned Pakistan: “You can do another Mumbai, but you will lose Balochistan.”

    Balochistan, an arid but resource-rich land, is the largest of Pakistan’s provinces, accounting for 44% of its land mass. Its people are secular in the real sense of the word. They abhor Pakistanis and have much goodwill for India. But of them, and their land, more in a moment.

    In the first part of this article I wrote that India should follow a four-pronged policy to neutralize Pakistan’s decades-long proxy terror war against India.

    First, diplomatic downgrade. The heavy mortar shelling of Indian villages across the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) by Pakistani Rangers has caused the death of several Indian civilians and soldiers. This amounts to an undeclared, if limited, war on the Indian state. The BSF has responded robustly but it is important to stress that India has “responded” – Pakistan in every instance has been the provocateur.

    In such a sustained, medium-intensity conflict, downgrading of diplomatic relations to consular status is the mandatory first step in a calibrated strategy. Pakistan possesses whatever little international credibility it does today because India engages with it – at High Commissioner level, through back channel talks and, till recently, in a structured dialogue.

    All three avenues must, for the present, be terminated.

    Pakistan loses credibility. India loses nothing. The United States’ engagement with Pakistan meanwhile is that of a client paying a disresputable vendor for essential services.

    Second, economic sanctions. Till terrorism from Pakistan aimed at India ends, there is little rationale for continuing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Islamabad. Reciprocity of MFN (under different nomenclature) to India was promised by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif but has not fructified – and is not likely to in the forseeable future. By withdrawing MFN status, India again loses nothing. Its market is 10 times the size of Pakistan’s and the largely one-way trade between the two countries helps Pakistan not India.

    Furthermore, if Pakistan’s violations across the LoC and IB continue, India should do some plain speaking with its major trading partners: privileged access to India’s big and increasingly prosperous market would be contingent on graded economic sanctions against Pakistan. The US, for example, has deployed international sanctions against Iraq, Iran and North Korea – and even against India after Pokhran-II in 1998. It is a weapon in India’s armoury which has not been used so far. It should be.

    Third, international legal action. The Indian government has long had reservations about internationalising Jammu & Kashmir. That phobia must end. Pakistan-sponsored terrorism is an international crime and should be taken to the International Court of Justice at the Hague. (India is not a member of the International Criminal Court.) Pakistan has limited legal locus standi in Kashmir. The UN resolution of August 13, 1948 on J&K clearly states:

    “As the presence of troops of Pakistan in the territory of the State of Jammu and Kashmir constitutes a material change in the situation since it was represented by the Government of Pakistan before the Security Council; the Government of Pakistan agrees to withdraw its troops from that State.”

    In other words, Pakistan continues to be in illegal occupation of PoK – the principal reason why J&K is the “core issue” though not in the manner Islamabad imagines.

    Fourth, covert operations. India’s covert capability behind enemy lines was severely curtailed by former Prime Minister I.K. Gujral in 1997. It is now being rebuilt by NSA Doval. The capability comprises human intelligence on the ground in Pakistan as well as covert actions within Pakistan against hostile targets including Dawood Ibrahim and the terrorists in the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jammat-ud-Dawa (JuD) he finances with the full knowledge and backing of the ISI.

    This is where the Balochistan insurgency this article began with comes in. The film on the murdered Baloch Nazir Dagaarzai shows how the Pakistan military is perpetrating silent genocide in Balochistan. India can help the Baloch (as it has Afghans) with funds and training in India.

    The Baloch are a proud people but have been brutalized by the Pakistani army and ISI. Balochistan is Pakistan’s Achilles Heel and must form a part of India’s multi-pronged counter-terrorism strategy.

    These four measures – diplomatic, economic, legal and covert – will obviously not end Pakistan’s proxy terrorism. But they will signal a robust new paradigm and send a strong message to the state-sponsored terrorists who infest Pakistan: India is no longer the soft state it was for decades; ignore this warning at your peril.

    Critics of a strong stand against Pakistani terrorism fear the consequences of ratcheting up tensions, even hinting darkly at the use by Islamabad of tactical nuclear weapons. This is nonsense for two reasons.

    First, Pakistan’s Scotch-swilling Generals have a heightened sense of self-preservation. Their predominant aim is to line their pockets with US aid dollars, using Kashmir as an excuse to perpetuate an endless medium-intensity conflict with India. Use of nuclear weapons will end their idyllic world forever.

    Second, Pakistan’s Generals know India has highly developed tactical short-range battlefield nuclear weapons of its own. Nuclear adventurism by Pakistan is not a military option. It is pure bluff. Both India and Pakistan at the highest levels know it.

    A cabal of former Indian diplomats, bureaucrats, armed forces officers and journalists loses no opportunity to draw an equivalence between India and Pakistan on terror victimhood. There is of course none. But it is this enemy within whose insidious narrative has for years forced India to fight Pakistani terror with one hand tied behind its back.

    For terrorism from Pakistan to end, that nexus too must be broken.
     
  4. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    If you deal cards, then you will find Pakistan is the joker of the pack.
     
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  5. Nicky G

    Nicky G Senior Member Senior Member

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    My worry is that this government will act only after something major has taken place, when one would hope they had been proactive.

    Pak will disintegrate, India should work to hasten that disintegration. Nukes are a bluff that have already been called in Kargil, its US and international pressure that matters.
     
  6. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    We may think that nukes are a bluff, but we can't rely on that assumption.

    Our no. 1 priority has to be the de-nuclearization of Pakistan. All our intelligence efforts have to be directed towards that end. We should swallow our pride and enlist whatever help we can, from any quarter. The CIA, the Mossad, etc. This de-nuking process is critical for world peace.

    Once that is done, we don't need to worry about anything anymore.
     
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  7. Nicky G

    Nicky G Senior Member Senior Member

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    Its not about relying on an assumption, its about not being held hostage by them which is the sole purpose for which Pak was allowed to have these in the first place.

    As for de-nuclearization, that is not going to happen unless Pak establishment is degraded or disintegrates to the level that the west, US in particular can no longer pretend them to be under reasonable control.
     
  8. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is exactly what we have to do..Go covert and purge catalysts of threat towards India. We cant always expect other countries to share intel cuz at highest level these will come under the political game plan. For them innocent civilian lives are collateral.
     
  9. Dark Sorrow

    Dark Sorrow Respected Member Senior Member

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    Eye for an Eye makes the entire world blind.
    I see two ways dealing with Pakistan :
    1. Make Pakistan so economically dependent on us that they won't dare to go against us
    2. Break their country in two or more parts by means of civil war. There should be no direct involvement of Indian Army
     
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  10. Dark Sorrow

    Dark Sorrow Respected Member Senior Member

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    Direct confrontation with Pakistan will be useless and will not serve any purpose for us. It will cost us more.
     
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  11. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Pakistan is one community, the punjabis , colonising the other three
    their ony rival , the sindhis have been diluted by the mohajirs and now the sindhis have enough problems
    trying to get their homeland back and no time for overall domination of the country - the punjabis saw to that
    in the early 1970s.....i

    i agree that the pashtuns have been co-opted into the system , to aid the Punjabis .


    unless we have another lal bahadur shastri who took pre-emptive action in 1965 - although you are generally
    right about the slowness, happily there are also times when the goi can surprise us all !
    nules are not a bluff and that paklanders know that the international community is against them
    having them which is why they are driving them around the roads of packland
    with radiation spilling all over the place - in that sense pak is already nuking themselves ! :toilet:

    the long and short of the answer to dealing with pakistan is ; - we cant ! .....not on our own
    but we can , ....if the intl community ( usa, and others ) is involved .- and they are

    in terms of denuking packland , it is a major objective of many foreign entities and the paks know it
    so they are already putting their nukes in vans and drive all over the place to hide from surveillance etc

    the intl community is well aware of it ....direct confrontation is not the answer.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2015
  12. dastan

    dastan Regular Member

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    Seriously?
    That sounds amateurish, even for pakistan!
     
  13. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    bro , i dont mean to be harsh , but before posting just do a google search .
    This following took me less than 10 seconds and reveals multiple sources backing what i wrote ....which btw is common knowledge among many of us on this forum
    https://www.google.pt/?hl=en&gws_rd...=en-PT&q=paksitan+moving+nukes+around+in+vans

    i'll take it a step further - these vans are ordinary vans with hardly the safety requirements for the cargo theyre carrying - they must be radiating thousands of people by now . This procedure started in earnest after the bin laden raid ( if im right , i dont claim accuracy on that one ) - so lets's say 2012 - ten years i.e. 2022 lets see if there are manifestations of high level radiation among the people of pakland ...theyre literally nuking themselves.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2015
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  14. dastan

    dastan Regular Member

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    Thanks sorry for wording that wrongly
     
  15. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    With China in the economic plan ..how do you think that will pan out?
    Breaking the country in two or more parts is something thats already on the boards.
     
  16. prohumanity

    prohumanity Regular Member

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    The same powers who financed, supported and enabled Pakistan by giving billions in aids and giving tanks, fighters like F-16 etc to intimidate India over decades. The same powers who undermined India for decades by evil minds like Henry Kissinger, Madeline Albright etc in cohuts with Paki General Musaharaff are now...wishing that India destroy Paki as Paki has become a headache for their masters.
    Netanyahoo's of the world are still dreaming to manipulate India and use it for the Yahudi cause. They make degrading cartoons of someone's prophet and call it freedom of speech BUT start yelling anti-semetism..anti- semetism with full throat as soon as someone even says the word "yahudi" ...where is the freedom speech now ? Hypocrats of first degree. Do not hurt the deepest feelings of any people ..respect others' feeling ...that's a fundamental value of Indian civilization.
     
  17. Dark Sorrow

    Dark Sorrow Respected Member Senior Member

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    Chinese are businessmen. They are looking out for their interest. The moment aiding Pakistan goes against their interest the Chinese will dump Pakistan.
    If you consider trade between China and Pakistan the geographical distance and conditions plays a big obstacle compared to trade between India and Pakistan.
    More ever breaking Pakistan also will have its disadvantages like :
    • More 5 decades of hate between the 2 countries
    • More terrorist attacks on India
    • Illegal migration may cause problems to us
    • Breaking Pakistan may also backfire on us
    • Economic implications to us can't be foreseen
     
  18. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    • So what

      Peace bring prosperity either in economic or culture.
     
  19. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    ^^^^ Edit not working

    [*]More terrorist attacks on India

    Simply NO.
    Can i remind u,who started J&K and Khalistan insurgencies.India faced worst terrorism when we are in poor.Now India is not 1980's poor India &Pak is not West'n ally any more.

    [*]Illegal migration may cause problems to us

    I don't' think BJP govt allow Paki muslims aka jihadis into India.


    [*]Breaking Pakistan may also backfire on us
    Breaking pak,Creating BD is best thing ever happened to India.Another breaking will bring complete peace to Indian subcontinent

    [*]Economic implications to us can't be foreseen

    Peace bring prosperity either in economic or culture.
     
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  20. SANITY

    SANITY Regular Member

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    If people's views or words offend you, you ought to keep distance from them instead of asking them to respect you by becoming like you. You don't give respect to other faith by converting each of the other faith and if you have critical or even insulting views does not mean I am supposed to do the same or act with violence. I don't like prophet, I haven't read anything to believe he was a prophet or even a sane human being, is it disrespect?

    Btw, who wants India to destroy Pakistan?
     
  21. SANITY

    SANITY Regular Member

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    Can we not merge them with us? With better freedom and opprtunities, how long will they hate us ? When the ordinary people and even the brainwashed and naive ones see no discrimination, would it not make them realize the fault in partition and agree for united Indian subcontinent?
     

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