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Indx TechStyle

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If the adversary is more concerned about the CPEC than Pakistani themselves, we must be doing something right.
As your wish! :clap2:
If you think that we can build thousands of kilometers of new roads, highways and railways and new power stations producing 20 gigaqatt without having any effect on our economy,
Far away from being called thousands, at least under CPEC.
 

Neo

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As your wish! :clap2:
Its a fact.

Far away from being called thousands, at least under CPEC.
CPEC is still in its initial phase and the investment has gone up from $30 to 45 billion in first two years of implementation and stands at 57.5 billion today (3rd year). The amount is expected to be doubled within a decade. Our focus is on solving the energy crisis first but infrastructure is next major step. Our part of investment plan has yet to take off.
 

Willy2

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I don't go through all the 50 pages of this thread , but following last few pages and some random discussion here and I have a idea(unfortunate) that pakistanis are happy to be truck driver under CPEC in terms of job creation .
There are very few details about skill labour and high end job available for Pakistanis.
China (as per as example of Africa) whenever invest it's money , it entrust own ppl to run it , local ppl don't have huge access to those facility , as per as the long article by @Indx TechStyle , the pak official said there would be 0.9 million chinese .:shock::shock::shock::shock: 900000 chinese ??
In my state around a decade ago , left govt used to give contract of thermal power plant to chinese companies , who came with very large no. of chinese engineer , which become concern for central govt , and later many project either disbanded or transferred to central govt authority .
 

Indx TechStyle

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Its a fact.
I said as your wish, enjoy till it's okay.:becky:
We will see what's the outcome later, it will be GIFT City or Ghost City on lease.
CPEC is still in its initial phase and the investment has gone up from $30 to 45 billion in first two years of implementation and stands at 57.5 billion today (3rd year). The amount is expected to be doubled within a decade. Our focus is on solving the energy crisis first but infrastructure is next major step. Our part of investment plan has yet to take off.
Well well, I'm saying thousands of kilometres roads don't seem to viable but construction per day can be improved a lot.

Regarding energy, 20GW isn't really a big amount IMO, at least my perception studying infrastructure & Indian energy sector. It's even drawn by non conventional sources. Just saying.:)
that pakistanis are happy to be truck driver under CPEC in terms of job creation.
I will give some admiration if trucks can have better looks.
the pak official said there would be 0.9 million chinese .:shock::shock::shock::shock: 900000 chinese ??
Specially western part of Pakistan.

Regards
 

Mikesingh

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Would it not be cheaper and faster to use Karachi port and then the road network to China?
Check this out......

Calculations tell us that shipping through Gwadar port is costlier and more time consuming than transporting through sea, and distance between Pakistani cities and Chinese cities is as much as the distance between Pakistani cities and major European cities. Thus, if there is no land route trade happening between Europe and Pakistan, then certainly no trade will happen between china and Pakistan on a large scale. And anything which is cheaper and quicker is always preferred, which is not the case for transporting through Gwadar and Kashghar by road.

Cost comparison for viability of CPEC.

Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km
Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km

Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 7 cents.

Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 3 cents.

This is the most conservative calculation not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway The hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulun Shan mountains range, and Altai Shan mountain range.

But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Ton of goods from Shanghai to Gwadar.

Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47
Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41
So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a ton of goods = $440.88


Now let destination port be Dubai.


Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93
Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787


Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $446.67

Total cost of Shipping directly by sea from Dubai to Shangahi = $28.93
which is 16 times cheaper than that of Transporting via Gwadar through the CPEC!!!

Heck Total cost of Transport from Gwadar to Chinese border is more than what would be required for Transport from Dubai to Shanghai by sea!
 

ezsasa

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If the adversary is more concerned about the CPEC than Pakistani themselves, we must be doing right
Our concern is not exactly about CPEC, most of us don't care as long as it remains purely as a economic corridor.

My concern atleast is that if you guys mismanage this mega project, you will give strong footing for Chinese on our west.

I sincerely hope patriotic Pakistanis will resist Chinese take over of Pakistan when the time comes. Your clue for potential take over will be a surge of communist and socialist propaganda.
 
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Neo

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Our concern is not exactly about CPEC, most of us don't care as long as it remains purely as a economic corridor.

My concern atleast is that if you guys mismanage this mega project, you will give strong footing for Chinese on our west.

I sincerely hope patriotic Pakistanis will resist Chinese take over of Pakistan when the time comes. Your clue for potential take over will be a surge of communist and socialist propaganda.
There's no take over, nor is it going to be. Unlike Srilanka, Pakistan is not without resources; we have over $2 trillions buried in several parts of the country, enough to payback Chinese loans/investment.

But Chinese military presence, naval base in Gwadar is imminent and even desired by Pakistan. No way US or India can prevent it from happening.
 

captscooby81

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@ezsasa Looks like your concern and mine are proving right ..this is not at all economic thing its pure strategic defence base to counter the US and India

BEIJING: China is set to increase the number of its marine corps from 20,000 to one lakh as part of plans to deploy them overseas for the first time, including at the strategic Gwadar port in Pakistan and military logistics base in Djibouti in the Indian Ocean.

The expansion is planned to protect China's maritime lifelines and its growing interests overseas, Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post reported today.

Some members would be stationed at ports China operates in Djibouti and Gwadar in southwest Pakistan, Chinese military insiders and experts were quoted as saying.

Gwadar port is a deep-sea port next to the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil route in and out of the Persian Gulf, built with Chinese funding and operated by mainland firms.

Although the port is not home to any PLA installation, navy ships are expected to dock at the facility in the near future, the report said.

Gwadar also connects the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through PoK with China's Xinjiang.

Reports from Pakistan said the country itself is setting up Special Security Division comprising 15,000 troops, including 9,000 Pakistan Army soldiers and 6,000 para-military forces personnel to protect CPEC and Chinese personnel.

The expanded Chinese marine corps is part of a wider push to refocus the world's largest army away from winning a land war based on sheer numbers and towards meeting a range of security scenarios using highly specialised units, the report said.

Towards that end, Chinese President Xi Jinping is reducing the size of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by three lakh, with nearly all of the cuts coming from the land forces, it said.

For this, two brigades of special combat soldiers had already been moved to the marines, nearly doubling its size to 20,000, and more brigades would be added, the report said.

"The PLA marines will be increased to 100,000, consisting of six brigades in the coming future to fulfil new missions of our country," it quoted a source as saying.

The size of the navy would also grow 15 per cent from its current estimated size of 2.35 lakh personnel.
China this year plans to increase its defence spending by about seven per cent to $152 billion. Much of it was expected to go to the navy as China plans to spread its influence far from its shores.
Traditionally, marines have mostly operated only in China's coastal areas, as their role was limited by their relatively small numbers and basic equipment, Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said.
But a bigger corps could be deployed much farther afield as the navy takes on more challenges.
 

sthf

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@Neo Could you please point out the investment that has actually taken place since 2015? Thanks.
 

Neo

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Pakistan will be paying China $90b against CPEC-related projects
By Salman Siddiqui
Published: March 12, 2017

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif meets Chinese President Xi Jinping. PHOTO: REUTERS

KARACHI: Pakistan will end up paying $90 billion to China over a span of 30 years against the loan and investment portfolio worth $50 billion under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), report of a brokerage house estimated.

The estimated return – sum of principal and interest on foreign currency debt and repayment of profits/dividend on equity investment – shows 40% return on investment.

The amount increased to $54 billion after the inclusion of more projects in CPEC such as investments in Pakistan Railways and financing of the Karachi Circular Railways project. The volume of return would increase accordingly. Infrastructure and power projects – part of the CPEC portfolio and divided across time in terms of priority – are expected to be completed by fiscal year 2030.

Pak-China partnership:Dasu power project to create 8,000 jobs for locals

Topline Securities, in its report, said leading economists have estimated annual average repayments of $3-4 billion per year post fiscal year 2020.

“Average annual repayment of CPEC will be $3 billion. {However, in medium term} between fiscal year 2020-25, it will range between $2.0-5.3 billion with average payment of $3.7 billion,” Saad Hashemy, an analyst at the brokerage house, said in a report titled, ‘Pakistan’s External Account Concerns and CPEC Repayment’.

Another valid concern is over the repayment of CPEC-related projects. This is because most projects are being funded abroad and Pakistan is not seeing any significant inflow of foreign exchange.

“It should be noted that project financing for CPEC is being done between Chinese companies and banks and around 25% of CPEC investment is expected to come in Pakistan,” he said. The report argued the repayment would remain manageable despite additional burden of debt servicing and repatriate of profits on equity investment in CPEC. The amount for additional repayment would be generated from the expected surge in exports, drop in imports and increased inflow of remittances.

Trade

The brokerage house assumed exports to grow by 4.5% a year till fiscal year 2025, which is higher than the previous decade’s average of 3%. This is because of expectation of CPEC-led higher GDP growth in the coming years and positive impact on local industry.

Imports are expected to grow by 4% in line with last decade’s average. Further, remittances are expected to grow within 4-4.5%, which is lower than last couple of decade’s average of over 7% as Pakistani diaspora has to a great extent shifted to official channels of transferring money.

“We expect current account deficit to remain on average at 1.5% of GDP between FY20-25 at a range of 1.2%-1.8%,” it said. In addition, Arif Habib Limited estimated, CPEC-related transportation would earn $400-500 million per annum to Pakistan, which would be sufficient for repayments.

Revised macro estimates

At the same time, Topline Securities said Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) in the first seven months of current fiscal year 2017 remained much higher than expectation at $4.7 billion, which is 88% higher than last year.

“The higher CAD was mainly on account of weak exports of $12.3 billion, which posted a decline of 1.3% while imports of $25.5 billion increased by 9%,” it said. “Given the large CAD…, we are revising up our CAD forecast to $6.6 billion (from previous $4.7 billion), which is 2.2% of GDP,” it added.

“Given higher CAD, we are revising down our year end forecast of foreign exchange reserves to $22-23 billion from previous estimate of over $25 billion. “These are all time high foreign exchange and provide 4-5 months of import cover (accounting for only reserves with State Bank of Pakistan of $17-18 billion),” it said.
 

roma

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If the adversary is more concerned about the CPEC than Pakistani themselves, we must be doing something right.

I cannot change the negative perception and approach you have towards Sino-Pak alliance and all the fruit it bears, after all you're an Indian and you think like an Indian

CPEC is being financed by China and we are greatful to them for providing the opportunity in a time no one is willing to pour in sizeable investment. What has the West done for Pakistan despite having military pacts and fancy titles as MFN and MNNA except for squeezing us out politically as well as militarily?

No land is being sold and we can very well bear the financial burden as the loans have a timespan of 30 years. Even if we grow at 5-6% for three decades, we will have a couple of trillion dollars economy. So don't loose your hair over CPEC, we will be just fine.
Neo Brother , firstly i am not an adversary , im quite happy for pak to be independent of india just not enemies .....i am wary of china making us fight each other when that should not be so

im in favour of more cultural contact between india and pak and not india and china

so go ahead and lets see what happens ....you say you can pay , i say you will have to "sell" land access to china , they will own your strategic places soon , you otoh say NO that wont happen

ok we cant prove it now , lets hope we live long enough to find out what actually happens

ps1 thanks for saying i think like an indian - sometimes i wonder , having being born abroad i sometimes wondered if i was indian enough

ps2 - thanks for "admitting " above that pak will owe 90 billion to china ( for initial 46 billion loan ") ..hmmmm the numbers are already beginning to pile up ...... for 90 billion India would have bought the whole marcel Dassault company log stock and barrel and a couple of others too .....hmmmmm these chins are great businessmen

ps3 .- cpec is in initial stages ( as u stated in ur post above ) and you already owe 90 billion ( estimate , conservative ? ) - doesnt that ring alarm bells ? no ?
 
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anupamsurey

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There's no take over, nor is it going to be. Unlike Srilanka, Pakistan is not without resources; we have over $2 trillions buried in several parts of the country, enough to payback Chinese loans/investment.

But Chinese military presence, naval base in Gwadar is imminent and even desired by Pakistan. No way US or India can prevent it from happening.
will you please eloborate on this $ 2 trillion remark of yours , can you cite some one. and if there are really 2 trillion buried in pakistan then why do they keep asking for loans and aids.
 

Neo

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GE equips new 1,320 MW CPHGC power plant to help Pakistan meet growing energy needs

Karachi, 16 March, 2017 – GE is supplying Northwest Electric Power Design Institute Co. Ltd. (NWEPDI) and Tianjin Electric Power Construction Company (TEPC) with two units each of supercritical steam turbines, boilers and generators for the China Power Hub Generation Company (Pvt.) Limited (CPHGC) 1,320 megawatt (MW) Power Plant in District Hub, Balochistan, Pakistan. CPHGC is a joint venture of China Power International Holdings Limited (CPIH) with Pakistan’s Hub Power Company (HUBCO). The power plant’s construction has started and a groundbreaking ceremony is expected on Tuesday, March 21. The facility is expected to enter commercial operations in 2019.

“We are proud to be the equipment, procurement and construction (EPC) partner for the CPHGC project, which will feed the Pakistani national grid, to the benefit of all sections of the community – households, cities, villages and industry,” said Zengqiang Liu, the GM of the NWEPDI-TEPC Consortium. “We decided to opt for GE’s technologies because of their global expertise in manufacturing key equipment for coal-fired power plants and their proven track record in Pakistan.”

CPHGC is one of the infrastructure ventures supported under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a large development megaproject that aims to connect Port Gwadar in southern Pakistan to Xinjiang, China’s northwestern autonomous region, through transportation and energy networks. The project will support the Government of Pakistan’s goals under Vision 2025 to increase access to electricity from 67 percent to over 90 percent of the population and spur faster socio-economic development by helping to meet a part of the current energy deficit. It will also help Pakistan diversify its energy mix and reduce dependence on expensive imported fuels such as oil and diesel, allowing the use of cheaper supplies of coal.

“With the sixth largest population in the world, Pakistan’s energy needs are large and growing,” said Dr. Sacha Parneix, Commercial General Manager for GE’s Steam Power Systems business in the Middle East, North Africa & Turkey (MENAT). “Coal presents an opportunity to expand the alternative energy base in the country and reduce the per megawatt-hour costs of power generation. GE’s advanced solutions, based on modern supercritical technology, can support the utilization of this resource to provide efficient and reliable power at very competitive costs.”

“Meeting Pakistan’s growing energy needs will require efforts to draw on resources from across the energy mix, including coal, gas, oil, wind, hydro and other sources,” said Sarim Sheikh, President & CEO of GE Pakistan and Central Asia region. “GE is proud to work together with its partners and customers in the country and beyond to help utilize these different resources to secure Pakistan’s energy future.”

GE Power’s Steam Power Systems business is an industry leader that has installed 30 percent of the world’s steam turbine capacity and 30 percent of the world’s boilers. It offers smarter, cleaner steam power solutions, including air quality control systems technology that can be implemented at coal-fired power plants to remove up to 99% of air pollutants, helping to meet and exceed the world’s strictest regulations.

GE also recently announced its new global Powering Efficiency Center of Excellence (COE), which brings together cross-business experts in its energy businesses to apply a total plant hardware and software solution approach to boost the efficiency of the world’s new and existing coal-fired power plants and significantly reduce their emissions. Every point of efficiency reduces operating costs over the lifetime of the plant while also reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 2 percent.

GE has been a long-term partner in Pakistan’s progress for more than 50 years, creating over 400 employment opportunities in the country. Today, GE-built technologies can generate up to 25% of Pakistan’s electricity, while GE and its joint venture partners power more than 60% of the aircraft operated by Pakistani commercial carriers and GE Healthcare devices are installed in more than 70% of large hospitals across the country.

http://www.genewsroom.com/press-rel...plant-help-pakistan-meet-growing-energy-needs
 

lcafanboy

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China ready to take CPEC forward with Pakistan: spokesperson

BEIJING: A Chinese foreign affairs ministry spokesperson on Friday said Beijing is ready to work with Islamabad to move forward the multi-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to benefit the people of the two countries.

“The CPEC is a new cooperation framework set up by China and Pakistan to pursue long-term development. It is also an important project of the Belt and Road Initiative,” Chinese FO Spokesperson Hua Chunying said during a press briefing.

Pakistan, China revise ‘priority list’ of CPEC energy projects


“China stands ready to work with Pakistan to move forward the CPEC so as to benefit the two peoples at an early date,” she said.

Hua Chunying maintained that it was important, not only in promoting common development for China and Pakistan but also in promoting regional connectivity, development and prosperity of regional countries.

In advancing the CPEC, both Pakistan and China had adhered to the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, the Chinese official added. She said the dividends and benefits brought by CPEC would be shared by people in China and Pakistan and in the region.

Responding to a question, the spokesperson rejected apprehensions that once the CPEC trade routes officially opened, Pakistan will be flooded with cheap Chinese products, which would make it hard for local Pakistani companies to survive.

At the invitation of the Pakistani military, honour guards of the three services of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army had sent a formation to march in the military parade marking Pakistan Day, she said.

Pakistan will be paying China $90b against CPEC-related projects


Hua Chunying added, “In 2015, Pakistan sent a formation to take part in China’s military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.”

“China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic cooperative partners, and the Chinese and the Pakistani military maintain a traditional friendship,” continued the Chinese spokesperson.

Joining the Pakistani side in its military parade this time was another vivid testament to the epitome of the high-level strategic mutual trust and friendly relations between the two countries and their militaries, the Chinese FO spokesperson added.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1365218/china-ready-take-cpec-forward-pakistan-spokesperson/

Pakistan will be paying China $90b against CPEC-related projects :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 

Bravado

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There's no take over, nor is it going to be. Unlike Srilanka, Pakistan is not without resources; we have over $2 trillions buried in several parts of the country, enough to payback Chinese loans/investment.

But Chinese military presence, naval base in Gwadar is imminent and even desired by Pakistan. No way US or India can prevent it from happening.
Neo dude, I am not able to understand,
China is building a highway to transport its goods, why Pakistan is paying for that, just to collect chungi/toll tax?
All infrastructure projects will be build on loan.
So what Pakistan is getting? Just fancy loan on thermal power plants.
It seems China is going to colonize Pakistan for its resources and for "so called" strategic location.
 

Mikesingh

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If the adversary is more concerned about the CPEC than Pakistani themselves, we must be doing something right.
Nope! You're doing something wrong. You've prostituted POK and GB to your Chinese masters. How can a third country be allowed to construct infrastructure in J&K?
If you think that we can build thousands of kilometers of new roads, highways and railways and new power stations producing 20 gigaqatt without having any effect on our economy, you're naive and biased.
And pray, WTF are you going to use the 'thousands' of kms new roads, highways and railways for? Selling undies, vests and towels? These are your only exports. And this is not viable as the cost of transportation will be far higher than your manufacturing costs. Lol!
And you talk of gigawatts of energy? Your cost today of electricity is approx Rs 7 PKR per unit. The cost of electricity from the 11 discarded Chinese polluting coal fired plants once operational will be Rs 18 approx PKR per unit!! Commercial cost would be around Rs 25-Rs 30 PKR per unit! Can the ordinary Paki afford this? And your industrial sector? Not a chance! They'll all go bust! Period!
CPEC is being financed by China and we are greatful to them for providing the opportunity in a time no one is willing to pour in sizable investment.
Don't peddle this bullshit since you know squat about the financial implications. Out of $46 billion which is NOT aid or grants, $11 billion for road infra is a loan with huge interest rate and the remainder is slightly less but with a shorter time frame. Payback time is when you Pakis are gonna get screwed. A debt trap awaits you.
No land is being sold and we can very well bear the financial burden as the loans have a timespan of 30 years.
Sold? you guys are so shameless and beholden to your master China that you have gifted thousands of hectares to the Chinks for free! Jeeez! Is that financial prudence? Far from it. You are on the highway to becoming an autonomous region of China like Tibet!

And you've literally gifted away Gwadar Port to the Chinese on a so called 40 year 'lease'. It's actually handing over the port to your masters in perpetuity or for the next 100 years at least, that is if you survive that long, which I doubt!

You wily Pakis have given the port away to the Chinks for establishing a PLAN base out there as a hedge against any Indian attack since the Chinese would then get involved too. Nice! Full marks to you scheming and sneaky Pakis for this one!
 
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SorryNotSorry

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1. Pakistan will essentially pay for a highway that China wants to use to connect to Gwadar

2. This loan that China is giving is not a good deal at all compared to other infra loans like the Bullet train deal between India and Japan: a soft loan with 50 year tenure, 15 year moratorium @0.1% interest rate. This means India can comfortably afford this project while creating jobs in Japan and strengthening ties. Meanwhile the 30 years tenure @ 1.6% interest rate isn't really that good. While some of the loans are at 0%, but these represent a very small fraction of the overall costs; there are also loans from Chinese banks at 5-6% . So overall it doesn't seem like the smartest idea.

3. $90 billion over 30 years is no joke for Pak.

4."game changer" " our economy will quadruple overnight" . How will this happen? "we will have ruhani infrastructure and best natural port in South Asia". What does product does Pakistan plan to export to the whole world with all this infrastructure? What is this mystery product that is made in Pakistan that will make CPEC a "game changer". hmmmmm.....

5. Energy problem solved- while China tries to move away from coal ( or atleast pretend it does )- it gives out a profitable loan on hand-me-downs. Even the alt energy equipment is made in China, and they gave out loans on this too. Well played China.
 

SorryNotSorry

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And best of all "Ittefaq" se Nawaz Sharif just happens to be one of the owners of Ittefaq Group- the biggest, and one of the only few steel producers of Pakistan. What a coincidence.
Its just my speculation that Nawaz not only gains major political brownie points by building huge infrastructure that Pak couldn't possibly afford on it's own or even dream of : winning over the aam poor Pakistani, selling them this stupid idea that Pakistan is also an emerging economic powerhouse can compete with India in terms of development; while- probably also winning the biggest steel contract that his company has ever seen. And the funniest part is - all this is on a backbreaking loan.

This isn't that far fetched considering he was caught with his pants down in 1992, when state cooperatives poured all their money in Ittefaq Steel Mills while he was in power.

Did I mention they invited the opportunistic wolf that is China into their house, whom they now owe a colossal debt to for the next 30 years, and who they completely depend on for everything from industry to economics to defence; the same China that bought 40 percent of their stock exchange and also will have to "protect" its assets in Pakistan?
Guess Pakistan didn't learn a lesson from colonialism.

LOL game changer. If the Pakis still can't see it God help them.
 

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CPEC: How Pakistan is losing out to China

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/cpec-how-pakistans-losing-out-to-china/20170410.htm

'The accusation that Pakistan risks losing sovereignty to China is emotive and has the potential to spread.'

'China will, however, remain intent on achieving its strategic ambitions of acquiring Gwadar port and securing a large chunk of Pakistan occupied Kashmir,' says former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.



Criticism, differences and doubts regarding the China Pakistan Economic Corridor have increased in Pakistan over the past year.

The singular central thread that runs through all of them is that Pakistan's sovereignty is increasingly at risk!

As Pakistan realises that the CPEC -- with investment now raised to an estimated $54 billion -- cannot be viewed as a silver bullet that will lift Pakistan out of its dire economic difficulties or solve issues afflicting its society, doubts are magnified by the fundamental divergence in how both countries view the CPEC.

While for Beijing it is part of a larger strategic objective which it views as an essential stepping stone towards global leadership, Islamabad sees it as a solution for its economic difficulties.

Endorsed by the Pakistan army, politicians of the ruling party and some Pakistani diplomats, the CPEC has been projected as an opportunity that would ensure a 2.5 per cent rise in growth, add over 26,000 MW of energy and provide at least 700,000 jobs for Pakistanis.

Recent assessments by Pakistani economists, journalists and politicians, however, offer a different picture.

There are complaints that inter-provincial resentment and differences have flared, with accusations that the country's eastern portion, where the majority of Pakistan's economic bases are located, is being favoured.

The CPEC is now disparagingly called the 'China Punjab Economic Corridor!

Because fuel for the CPEC's new power plants must be imported from China's Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, the cost per unit of electricity generated will be double the present, adding to the consumers' difficulties.

There is serious concern about the interest repayment burden on Pakistan.

The bulk of funding has come as loan-based financing to individual companies and not unconditional grants by the Chinese government, yet there is significant risk for the government as many of the power projects are under sovereign guarantees.

Additionally, loans taken from Chinese entities by Pakistani companies in the first quarter of 2017 already totals $979 million compared to only $138 million for the same period last year.

Pakistan's liabilities, both private and public, are already a staggering 75 per cent of GDP, or Rs 22.5 trillion.

Last November, Pakistan was unable to repay Rs 136.5 billion in bank loans stemming from the energy sector and postponed payment for another two years.

While the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan has publicly regretted the absence of transparency in disbursements of funds received from China, the State Bank of Pakistan recently confirmed that Pakistan's tax collection is unable to pay for debt servicing.

The trade deficit is also rapidly growing with Pakistan's imports from China rising from 4 per cent last year to 9 per cent already this year.

Politicians in the provinces meanwhile complain that while tens of thousands of Chinese workers are employed on CPEC projects, no Pakistanis have yet got jobs.

Complaints about the cost of security of the CPEC are mounting and China has declined to defray the expenditure.

Because of China's growing concern about the security of the 10,000 Chinese workers and CPEC projects, Pakistan announced it will double the size of the division-strength special security division commanded by a major general by the end of March.

Pakistani politicians, who already cavil at the expenditure of $12 million per year on the SSD, have now become more strident in their criticism.



The Gwadar port's security, which is of special concern to China, imposes a heavy financial burden on Pakistan.

In January 2016, the Pakistan navy decided to deploy two additional marine battalions to provide round the clock security at Gwadar.

On September 21, 2016, in the wake of the deterioration in India–Pakistan relations over Kashmir, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang publicly expressed reservations and told Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif that he 'hoped' Pakistan can continue to provide protection to the CPEC and Chinese personnel in Pakistan. The warning was echoed by China’s state-run media.

In November 2016, during the inaugural Kashgar-Gwadar cargo run and subsequent transfer of containers to waiting vessels at Gwadar port, Pakistan's navy deployed ships and aircraft to provide security cover to ensure safe and secure transit and assuage Chinese concerns.

The role of Pakistan's maritime forces has increased since Gwadar became operational with Pakistan's navy assigned special responsibility to protect the Gwadar seaport project and more than 500 Chinese working there.

It has strengthened maritime security capabilities to ward off attacks by terrorist groups or insurgents on seaports and vessels by intensifying security patrols, establishing the Pakistan marines' force protection battalion and setting up coastal watch stations.

With China refusing to provide any financial assistance towards the CPEC's security expenses, the Pakistan government on September 24, 2016, decided to meet expenses incurred on the SSD by adding 1 per cent to the cost of all central energy projects and recovering it from consumers through the national electric power regulatory authority.

The senate standing committee on planning development and reform has protested at billing citizens for providing security to thr Chinese in Pakistan.

Pakistani analysts have also now begun pointing to China's undue interest in Gwadar port. They point to the unmistakable similarities between Gwadar and Sri Lanka's Hambantota.

Saddled with unpayable Chinese loans, Sri Lanka now intends to allow a $1.4 billion debt for an 80 per cent equity swap that will allow China a 99-year lease on the Hambantota port and 1,500 acres of adjacent land.

In Gwadar, the development of which the Chinese agreed to fund only in 2007 after Pakistan agreed to grant it 'sovereign guarantees to the port facilities' after decades of hard negotiation, the Chinese have signed a 40-year lease on 2,300 acres of land to develop a 'special economic zone' and an international airport.

Gwadar additionally symbolises the sense of alienation felt by many in Balochistan.

The Balochis assert that local fishermen have been forced to leave Gwadar, that they will soon become a minority in their homeland, and that most of the benefits of the CPEC are going to outsiders.

The biggest threat to the CPEC and, potentially Sino-Pak relations is the unchecked rise of radicalisation of Islam in Pakistan.

The closure on January 11, 2017 of the borders of China's restive Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region with Pakistan is the first visible crack in the gloss of lacquer that the CPEC seeks to put on the China-Pakistan relationship.

Chinese provincial officials are also increasingly naming Pakistan as the source from where Uyghur 'terrorists' enter China.

China informed Islamabad last January that it plans to raise a 10,000-strong 'private army' for deployment in the CPEC to protect workers and construction sites.

The accusation that Pakistan risks losing sovereignty to China is emotive and has the potential to spread. It could get aggravated with the presence of Chinese security personnel in Pakistan.

Increasing criticism of the CPEC will hamper completion of numerous projects. China will, however, remain intent on achieving its strategic ambitions of acquiring Gwadar port and securing a large chunk of Pakistan occupied Kashmir and adjacent areas.

In case of increased problems, it will invest an amount just adequate to keep the Sino-Pakistan relationship in a state of decent repair.
 

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