Countering China's aggression

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Yusuf, Sep 20, 2014.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I've written this

    Countering China’s repeated aggression | Sarvatra Vijay

    Once again just before a high level bilateral visit, the Chinese intruded into India. Last year it was in Depsang before the visit of Chinese PM to India. Earlier they provoked India by issuing stapled visas to people from Jammu and Kashmir which mean it didn’t recognize the state as integral part of India and they do the same with Arunachal Pradesh. China has made it a point to provoke India every time there is bilateral visit.

    Last year the Chinese withdrew from Depsang after nearly three weeks and not before demanding India destroy bunkers and listening posts in Chumar. India obliged. The UPA government of the time termed the incident as an acne on an other beautiful face of Sino Indian relations. The usual excuse about the LAC not being demarcated and difference of perception was also offered.

    This time the Chinese by some reports intruded 4-5 kms inside India’s side of LAC. The number of troops that intruded were nearly 1000. That is a lot of troops into Indian territory which can stay put and control a lot of territory which would require a larger mobilization from India to dislodge if it came with that intention. India did send in about 1500 troops and from an account I read, the Chinese withdrew back 2 kms. The MoD said the Chinese were still entrenched in good positions but India was better placed in terms of supplies.

    What is to note that the Chinese started this latest incursion while India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval was in Beijing laying the ground work for President Xi Jinping’s visit. Doval said that “ties between the two nations were poised for an “orbital jump.” But the Chinese as usual plan their own agenda devoid of sentiments when it comes to what they describe as their core interests.

    Chinese foreign ministry spokesman after the Presidential visit said that “effective communication has led to getting the situation under control”. This begs the question, who authorized this latest intrusion? The Chinese foreign ministry statement gives a sense that it was the PLA or its local commander who acted on its own without the permission at the highest level. Many analysts in India have said that the PLA has got increasingly powerful and is pushing its way in China against the Communist Party. I would like to say that the PLA is an arm of the Communist Party of China and its loyalty lies towards the party and not the Chinese nation. PLA apart from external security is also responsible for maintaining and sustaining Communist Party control over China. The events of Tienanmen Square being the best example of it.

    The CPC has being cracking down on the PLA for its large-scale corruption. Just this year in June it said it would court-martial General Xu Caihou, who retired in 2013 as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the top military decision-making body, for taking bribes. Earlier authorities charged one of his proteges, Lieutenant-General Gu Junshan, with corruption. Gu was the deputy head of the PLA Logistics Department until he was sacked in 2012. There has been no backlash by the army brass against the CPC indicating that the CPC is firmly under control of the PLA.

    What should also be taken into account that even last year it was projected that the local commanders were responsible for the Depsang intrusion without any authorization. The question then arises as to was the commander who issued the order found and punished for starting a provocation with India? This points to the fact that the incursions are carefully orchestrated with the permission at the highest level. What should also be considered is that China has been aggressive with all its neighbors and refuses to give up or negotiate on any of its claims. It established ADIZ in East China Sea. Recently it sent an oil rig in the waters claimed by Vietnam. It also undertook dangerous aerial maneuvers with US reconnaissance planes in South China Sea.

    India’s response from the new BJP led government has been nothing new but a continuation of the UPA policy that China has gotten used to. While Modi did tell President Xi that peace at the border is imperative for stronger bilateral ties, it does not go far enough to send a firm message across to China nor does India’s tactical response in the situation forceful enough to deter more Chinese aggression in the future.

    WHAT INDIA CAN DO?

    Frankly, learn from the past! India and its leaders seem to have forgotten that after 1962 war, India gave China a bloody nose in 1967 in Nathu La. Indian troops killed over 400 Chinese troops in what basically involved the control of a boulder!

    Again in 1986-87 the Chinese did something it has been doing in Ladakh in the Eastern Sector in Sumdorong Chu. Gen Sundarji landed a brigade level force in the region using Mi 26 helicopters and continued to reinforce and refused to back down. There was a war like situation. The Chinese blinked in the end and backed down. The Chinese didn’t provoke India in that manner for 25 years. after that.

    India has to show aggressive intent to protect its territory and clearly show that it wont back down even if it means another war with its larger neighbor. Chinese troops have not been to war since they got a bloody nose by Vietnam in 1979. It may be modernizing its armed forces,but still has many equipment which is essentially Soviet Era copied material. India has fought a war/skirmish every 15 years and has been fighting insurgencies for six decades.

    The reason why China does what it is doing is clear. It does not want to demarcate the LAC let alone resolve the boundary issue.. Its continuous incursions under the garb of undemarcated LAC suits its policy of grabbing more land without going to war. By continuously intruding into India and nibbling away at the LAC, it is trying to alter the line so that if at all it decides to formally have talks on border resolution, it can show that it controls more territory on the ground than shown on any map going back to the 60s. Baiscally it is China’s Forward Policy.

    India has to adopt a modern version of Nehru’s Forward Policy which analysts say led to the 1962 war with China. Unless China knows that India has the will to counter forcefully, it will continue with its aggression. India is also constitutionally bound to reclaim the large swathes of territory of Aksai Chin that China occupies. India is within its rights and within international law to seek that territory back, by any means. India for decades has done nothing diplomatically or militarily to show any intent to reclaim its territory and this applies to PoK as well.

    While I don’t advocate going to war with China right now given the economic costs, its imperative we show the Chinese we are prepared for war. In my opinion, China doesn’t want to fight a war with India or anyone right now. China knows it cannot win a war with India outright and that will lead to severe loss of face for it in the world for it and dent its claims to be a superpower. Also if it gets into a stalemate with India, it risks going to similar wars with its other neighbors who certainly will be emboldened by China not being able win a war with India. Japan being the most serious adversary which is well armed and with a renewed zeal under PM Abe to protect its territory against Chinese expansionist tendencies.

    If India does respond forcefully against Chinese provocations, it will push the other Asian countries who have a problem with China to react in similar manner. This would deter further aggression from China.
     
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  3. Ashutosh Lokhande

    Ashutosh Lokhande Senior Member Senior Member

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    Very nice article just like the rest of your other work. Superlike. :thumb:
     
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  4. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    Can any one enlighten me

    why China is in aggressive mode without firing single bullet (like daily we r facing from pak)
    From 62 onwards India consider LAC as defacto border now suddenly China printing some stupid Maps and claims A.P (any ay who cares)
    China is ready to fight for Taiwan&SCS with Jpn&US(Naval war), for this they need lot of Tech& Money why they are wasting their time with India.To fight India they must increase Land forces, it is too much costly &Useless aggression

    why why why

    Either China is fool/Rogue or India is TOO INTELLIGENT :lol:
     
  5. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

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    Adding my two cents on the topic

    Whether or not our policy will change will be known at least 6 months after putin’s visit to india. What ever the revised policy is ,it has to be ready before modi’s visit to china next year(visit not confirmed of course). I am hoping that modi would be able to get a fair idea of international politics from his U.S visit and Putin’s visit to india in december. Doval’s visit to china instead of someone from foreign ministry indicates to me that this was done precisely to preempt the border flareup, unfortunately china persisted with their policy. I don’t expect modi’s U.S visit will bring any strategic shift in American policy towards India and hopefully modi will realise every deal with america is designed to favour american business. As far as Russia is concerned situation has become unpredictable(w.r.t to india) with the western sanctions and oil deal with china and on the other hand india clearly indicating that we want to diversify from Russian defence imports.

    Modi is more or less being presented with the same problems the UPA faced, the question is whether he will do anything to different from them.
     
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  6. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Right perspective !!

    India is not a push over and India should go for alliances all around China.
     
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  7. ladder

    ladder Senior Member Senior Member

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    At-least this time govt. is accepting the implications of such an event. Modi did strongly raise this issue with Xi. But the last govt. was dismissive of the issue with the 'acne' remark.

    Chinese incursion can take place if we are too passive or too active to spook them. And this incursion happening in an area where we have road connectivity and tactical advantage, points to the latter scenario.
     
  8. Voldemort

    Voldemort Senior Member Senior Member

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    Chinese are getting more brazen with time. Perhaps testing the response of new govt? I feel Modi should be more vocal about these issues. A message must go out that we seriously considering ways of getting rid of the 'acne'.
     
  9. Dhairya Yadav

    Dhairya Yadav Regular Member

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    very nice article. India must counter china. Their bullying tactics wouldnt work . I was shocked to read that India accepted to remove hearing posts etc last year. We are not answerable to them. Hope NDA takes border security more seriously.
     
  10. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well my advice is that China of 80s and China of 2014 are two different things. India is a largely mis-managed country. India has allowed its military power to slip vis-a-vis China.

    China not only spends at least three times as much on military as India, its weapons cost per unit is far lower compared to India. China may have 5 to 1 advantage over India in the real world in conventional warfare.

    India will get respect only if it builds its military power. India must set a goal to build and induct the following EVERY YEAR:

    1. 200-300 tanks
    2. 300-400 IFVs
    3. 300-400 large calibre artillery guns
    4. 100-200 MLRS
    5. 100 fighter aircraft
    4. 10 fighting ships

    The current production and inductions are too low. The message carried to adversaries is that India is not serious about warfare.

    A huge problem are our military forces that are stuck in 1950 mindset when equipment was all imported. The challenges today are different.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2014
  11. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Yusuf-Sir ,the article is magnificent ! ...,i frist read it on the dfi home page and was unable
    to reply as i think it needs a separate registration? it described you as a businessman with
    defence interests ( something to that effect )

    anyway no flattery and hope you dont mind it comes from me . you write far better than most
    full-time journalists - no exaggeration . I hope you will be able to devote more time to such matters
    although business may be demanding ....


    Modi has scomplained to eleven jum,ping - but to no avail - what is nedded is ACTION - what ccp
    wants to SEE is if he will dare ! ...... they are testing this "new" PM of ours .

    youre right ....in fact is Defence Minister Jaitley having health problems
    plus he is handling 2 ministries ? - we need to help him . .... and then there's sushma etc etc
    and all that - i think modi has poor support ....there were some better cabinet people it seems in UPA
    although not at the very top - the second level in upa was quite solid ..... its a pity we dont have a
    one-part system .like ccp
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2014
  12. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    15 units and reserves in Ladakh has been put on alert as per today's newspapers.
     
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  13. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well we should not think that Mr Jaitley is not doing his job. He has already accomplished a lot.

    Examples :-

    1. Increased foreign participation in foreign JVs to 49%. This makes it easier for private sector to form JVs with foreign companies.
    2. Approved several pending deals. 118 Arjun orders are through. OFB is making 146 towed and 40 self propelled large calibre guns. DRDO has been given enough money to execute all focus projects.
    OFB has been given large amount to modernize factories.

    Several other approvals have been given which are not in public domain.

    The defence minister needs support from defence services and other stakeholders in our defence establishment. The defence forces have to put forward cases for approval. Things like Rafale will not happen if a tender is awarded in a sneaky manner as every government worries about political risk. The forces must understand what is possible and put forward cases.
     
  14. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think the Chinese are testing PM Modi, but this will blow over without incident. I do not see any firing.

    I am sure diplomats will work this out.
     
  15. lion

    lion Regular Member

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    Shaking hand on one side and back stabbing on others is very old tactic used by the chinese. According to my veiw, aggression should be shown in a limited manner. Indian army is not a week and neither India as a country. China has been showing to veitnam and other countries who are looking towards India as a hope. By raising this type of conflicts(limited), china is showing to asia and world that India is not able to protect its own land and there is no question that it can protect any other's land. It is a psychological game which is china is playing.

    What India should do is to show aggression on land and softness in politics to confuse china. Like they can cut off the supplies or can depute inidan air force to counter chinies aircrafts supplying supplies in the area. A blow to china can reverse there signals to the world and the game will be reversed.

    Any views are welcome and please correct me if i am wrong.

    Thanks
     
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  16. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

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    Well written article I only want to add a few things.

    1. I don't think China is trying to chip away at additional land as there is no evidence of them having actually gained any additional land from these incursions in the long run, but that these incursions are designed to keep the border issue alive so that it can be used as a tool to use against India and pressure it to not ally to strongly with Japan-USA.

    2. China started its economic reforms a decade and a half before India and it is always easier to organize things in a dictatorship or authoritarian regime, however these regimes also have weaknesses in the long run, much like building a skyscraper quickly with a poor foundation. It might look great while your competition is still laying down a foundation, but in the long run it tends to backfire. Right now China enjoys the greatest possible advantage economically and militarily over India that it is likely to for decades to come. However China is about to pay some of the prices for over planning things, when the up and coming massive demographic shift hits from the one child policy. China currently has about 3 workers for every 1 elderly person, but this will slowly shift as China enters a phase where it will eventually hit 3 elderly being supported by only 1 young worker. India on the other hand has some of its best days ahead and is about to reap the demographic dividend.

    So right now is the best time for China to instigate India or start a short war, however it strongly fears American involvement. What seems like meek weakness on the part of the Indian regime is actually a very well thought out and crafted foreign policy. The Indian government has expertly pushed back the Chinese each time an incursion has occurred while minimizing the publicity each incident gains.

    While it is tempting for us as Indians to pound the war-drums it would be a foolish strategy. Currently China enjoys great military advantages, they also have the money to more easily finance a war and their own domestic defense manufacturing ability is leaps and bounds ahead of our own. Even over looking the military hardware, they would be far more able to finance a war, and to manufacture replacements. They would enjoy another advantage in infrastructure allowing them to send these newly manufactured jets and tanks to the front-line more easily than India ever could.

    So we as Indians should do exactly what our government has been wise enough to do already. Stay still and work on our economy, keep things calm and relaxed and bide our time. Right now China is in the American cross hairs as their next rival. Being an American, I can assure you of the American mentality that does not tolerate even potential rivals.

    Let us not act like undisciplined Pakistani's, but rather be Indians and wait till the moment is right to strike a decisive blow, like we did in 1971 when we split Pakistan in 1/2 in one quick strike. India should keep a mental note of all Chinese transgressions, when the moment is right we will have our victory and our revenge.
     
  17. Dhairya Yadav

    Dhairya Yadav Regular Member

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    Mam, do you mean to say India should not be democratic?
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2014
  18. dastan

    dastan Regular Member

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    Excellent article!!
    My view on this whole saga of incursions is that though the Chinese may make it seem like they are ready for dialogues and resolving the issues they have no real interest or let's put it this way - 'no real need' to try and find a solution.
     
  19. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    The considered advice, which government of India is also following, is to keep things calm. Shooting at Chinese forces is not the option being considered.

    The situation is NOT out of control. It is not like the Chinese have moved heavy weapons.
     
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  20. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Indian TV news is absolutely worst kind of news. There is heavy dramatization and puffed up concerns in debates.

    The proper thing is to disregard TV news. India is a democratic country where the Press takes its freedom too far.

    There is no war on Chinese border. This is an 'incident' which can be handled by diplomats.
     
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  21. dastan

    dastan Regular Member

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