Could Pakistan Use Nuclear Weapons in a Future Conflict with Afghanistan?

[Virendra]

Tajiks don't have any claim with Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, although they don't believe in Durand line as a border, never considered extending their territory east of it.

Never considered? Never got a chance I should say. Tajiks were sidelined ever since Taliban rose in Afghanistan and the Durand line issue went cold.
Now that the things have changed, once US departs and Afghans put their house in order (may never settle completely), we'll see the ghost of Durand line coming back to haunt the contesting parties.

Regards,
Virendra

 

[Zarvin]

Never considered? Never got a chance I should say. Tajiks were sidelined ever since Taliban rose in Afghanistan and the Durand line issue went cold.
Now that the things have changed, once US departs and Afghans put their house in order (may never settle completely), we'll see the ghost of Durand line coming back to haunt the contesting parties.

Regards,
Virendra

Hi

Taliban were supreme from 1995-2001, they had all the chance in the world.

Again, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras don't believe in a Greater Pashtunistan, They are not Pashtuns in the first place and don't expect them to lay down their life's for such a cause.

 

[Daredevil]

Hi

Taliban were supreme from 1995-2001, they had all the chance in the world.

Again, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras don't believe in a Greater Pashtunistan, They are not Pashtuns in the first place and don't expect them to lay down their life's for such a cause.

If Taliban was supreme during those periods then why didn't Pakistan sign the "durand line" agreement with them, after all they were your proxies.

Something tells me they were against such agreement.

 

[blank_quest]

one serious note ... if you want to kill the bird .... think like a bird.. Pakistan Nuclear Policy can be easily countered.
Scenario
1. Just the right mix of push is needed to keep Pakistan overspending for maintaining Nuclear Edge.( Hope Pakistan is not suicidal or else it will fall under its own weight.)
2 In turn that will burden Pakistan with security issues of Nuclear Weaponry. More Human resource will be needed to be diverted/deployed for securing the nuclear weapons.
3. Financial burden will crumple the Govt. credibility .
4. International embargo and sanctions will bind Pakistan.
5. Danger of Nuclear footprints to be exposed to internal as well as external forces that will lead to the erosion of "advantage" of "head start" and endanger its own existance.
whatever will Pakistan do .. it has to be within the threshold of "rationality" for the "Number of Nuclear Weapons" . It can't keep adding arsenals recklessly and mindlessly . Else it will lead to existential threat "This way or That way" it will be like being b/w "devil and the deep sea"...

 

[Zarvin]

If Taliban was supreme during those periods then why didn't Pakistan sign the "durand line" agreement with them, after all they were your proxies.

Something tells me they were against such agreement.

Hi sir
That is what I said earlier:

My point is even if ANA stays in power or the Taliban come into power, neither believes in Pashtunistan or invading Pakistan. Tajiks don't have any claim with Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, although they don't believe in Durand line as a border, never considered extending their territory east of it.

The logical conclusion was that they were not our proxies since all our mess with Afghanistan started because of the Durand line issue. If anything, that is crux issue we wanted 'our proxies' to resolve with us, hence the reason we initially supported non-Pashtun elements who didn't believe in Pashtunistan. However, the world would rather believe in conspiracy theories.

 

[blank_quest]

Unofficially, it is, the reason they came into existence in the first place was because India got them---it won't be used against Afghanistan, Pakistan army and our tribals had fought those Pashtunistan warriors in border skirmishes already. Not to mention, the current Afghan Army is made up of non-Pashtun Tajiks who don't believe in Pashtunistan.

Again, the talk of nuking nations, especially Afghanistan is a joke. The world already says we control the Taliban which has 60% of Afghan territory under its belt and the whole country perhaps when the US leaves in 2014.

Pakistan "controls" Taliban!

Hi sir
That is what I said earlier:



The logical conclusion was that they were not our proxies since all our mess with Afghanistan started because of the Durand line issue. If anything, that is crux issue we wanted 'our proxies' to resolve with us, hence the reason we initially supported non-Pashtun elements who didn't believe in Pashtunistan. However, the world would rather believe in conspiracy theories.

still they are not Pakistani proxies!.. what does "control" means then?

 

[Daredevil]

Hi sir
That is what I said earlier:



The logical conclusion was that they were not our proxies since all our mess with Afghanistan started because of the Durand line issue. If anything, that is crux issue we wanted 'our proxies' to resolve with us, hence the reason we initially supported non-Pashtun elements who didn't believe in Pashtunistan. However, the world would rather believe in conspiracy theories.

The Taliban are your proxies, so there is no need to pull wool on that. The Taliban didn't extend outside of the durand line because they were dependent on Pakistan for many things but they didn't sign the "durand line agreement" either because they feel that the Pushtuns will get separated by an artificial line. It will take momentum once things settle down. And of the reason you still support Taliban because Pakistan feels that a stable Afghan government will start claiming the pushtoon areas in Pakistan.

 

[Virendra]

Hi
Taliban were supreme from 1995-2001, they had all the chance in the world.
Again, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras don't believe in a Greater Pashtunistan, They are not Pashtuns in the first place and don't expect them to lay down their life's for such a cause.

Zarvin you're conveniently forgetting how much intereference West, Russia and even Pakistan has had in Afghanistan even since long before your 1995 marker.
Afghanistan has been opposing the durand line in world forums ever since the British left it dangling between the two new nations.
That they didn't send in mercenaries and fidayeens across Durand, doesn't mean they were not contesting its validity.

 

[Zebra]

You talking about 40,000 special forces soldiers to be left post-2014 ?

Any such attack will give US another reason to target Pakistan's nuke and India's constant reminder to the world that Pakistan is unstable.

Yes.

The Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) / Happy Christmas (2014), Will War Be Over?

 

[Tolaha]

My point is even if ANA stays in power or the Taliban come into power, neither believes in Pashtunistan or invading Pakistan. Tajiks don't have any claim with Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, although they don't believe in Durand line as a border, never considered extending their territory east of it.

Northern Alliance would face an existential crisis if Pashtunistan happens, I give you that. But why would Taliban have a problem with Pashtunistan?

Taliban was never in complete control of Afghanistan, so even attempting to expand outside Afghan borders would have been far fetched then. But that need not necessarily hold true if it ever comes back to power again! It seems to me that if it would gain control of complete Afghanistan, joining with the rest of their Pashtun brethren, seems to me as the next obvious target.

 

[Tolaha]

The logical conclusion was that they were not our proxies since all our mess with Afghanistan started because of the Durand line issue. If anything, that is crux issue we wanted 'our proxies' to resolve with us, hence the reason we initially supported non-Pashtun elements who didn't believe in Pashtunistan. However, the world would rather believe in conspiracy theories.

Zarvin,

You are absolutely right in your reasoning that Pakistan would have profited if it would have backed a non-Pashtun entity and this entity would be ruling on the other side of the Durand line.

Do consider the possibility that Pakistan's leaders played a bad hand and backed the party that "could" eventually be inimical to Pakistan's interests!

 

[Virendra]

Now, is it about chosing betweem a religiously extremist Taliban and an ethnically distinct Pashun nationalism? Both are absolutely capable of rendering spillovers in Pakistan. As they say - "between a rock and a hard place"

 

[Zarvin]

Zarvin you're conveniently forgetting how much intereference West, Russia and even Pakistan has had in Afghanistan even since long before your 1995 marker.
Afghanistan has been opposing the durand line in world forums ever since the British left it dangling between the two new nations.
That they didn't send in mercenaries and fidayeens across Durand, doesn't mean they were not contesting its validity.

Hi, the vast majority of Afghan Pashtuns don't believe in the Durand line, that is a fact. However, we wanted a goverment in Kabul that will:

A. Accept the Durand Line
B. Overlook it
C. Are powerless to do anything about it.

A is the most desirable scenario for us, followed by B and C. Currently, C is in motion. Taliban are B. The worst scenario would be:

D. A Pashtun secular goverment with a Pashtun majority army that doesn't accept Durand line-----that was the scenario in the 50,60,70 until we decided to do something about it.

Thus even war with Afghanistan at the moment is not comprehensible, let alone us nuking them.

 

[blank_quest]

Hi, the vast majority of Afghan Pashtuns don't believe in the Durand line, that is a fact. However, we wanted a goverment in Kabul that will:

A. Accept the Durand Line
B. Overlook it
C. Are powerless to do anything about it.

A is the most desirable scenario for us, followed by B and C. Currently, C is in motion. Taliban are B. The worst scenario would be:

D. A Pashtun secular goverment with a Pashtun majority army that doesn't accept Durand line-----that was the scenario in the 50,60,70 until we decided to do something about it.

Thus even war with Afghanistan at the moment is not comprehensible, let alone us nuking them.

That was the reason for going at war with Afghanistan in 79 and supporting USA.... now I see a clear picture..

 

[Virendra]

Hi, the vast majority of Afghan Pashtuns don't believe in the Durand line, that is a fact. However, we wanted a goverment in Kabul that will:

A. Accept the Durand Line
B. Overlook it
C. Are powerless to do anything about it.

A is the most desirable scenario for us, followed by B and C. Currently, C is in motion. Taliban are B. The worst scenario would be:
D. A Pashtun secular goverment with a Pashtun majority army that doesn't accept Durand line-----that was the scenario in the 50,60,70 until we decided to do something about it.
Thus even war with Afghanistan at the moment is not comprehensible, let alone us nuking them.

Pakistan wanted to mitigate the risk of Pashtun nationalism cutting across both sides of that imaginery line. Had that happened, there was a sure second partition coming along.
One would think that it indeed became an even more panic inducing scenario for your rulers after what happened in 71.
Denting the ethnic pashtun's nationalism with the religious Taliban was a masterstroke by Pakistan, but only for the time being.
Now that the whole Pakistan is beginning to reap the rewards of those follies, you tell me what would have been the more sensible thing to do back then.
If new afghanistan rejects Taliban as major power player, wouldn't the Pashtuns fall back to ethnicity fueled nationalism? And wouldn't it bite on both sides of the Durand line?

Regards,
Virendra

 

[Zarvin]

Northern Alliance would face an existential crisis if Pashtunistan happens, I give you that. But why would Taliban have a problem with Pashtunistan?

Taliban was never in complete control of Afghanistan, so even attempting to expand outside Afghan borders would have been far fetched then. But that need not necessarily hold true if it ever comes back to power again! It seems to me that if it would gain control of complete Afghanistan, joining with the rest of their Pashtun brethren, seems to me as the next obvious target.

Hi, I think that is quite possible that the Taliban does come into power.

What people don't realize here is though the Afghan Taliban were Pashtuns and didn't accept the Durand line, it was not for ethnical or Historic reasons. They didn't accept Durand line because of religous reasons. So speculating that the Taliban wanted to take over Afghanistan first and then move onto the Pashtun areas of Pakistan is wrong. The Taliban were Islamists who had Pan-Islamic ideas that Muslims shouldn't have borders.

This was both fortunate and unfortunate for Pakistan, since the Durand Line was the number one issue but at least they were not hostile to us and nor did they have a desire to invade our lands.

 

[blank_quest]

So,very interesting fact coming out... they are not Hostile to Pakistan they are Hostile to "Durand Line". So what do they consider Pakistan without Durand line a Pakistan or Afghanistan??

 

[Virendra]

Hi, I think that is quite possible that the Taliban does come into power.
What people don't realize here is though the Afghan Taliban were Pashtuns and didn't accept the Durand line, it was not for ethnical or Historic reasons. They didn't accept Durand line because of religous reasons. So speculating that the Taliban wanted to take over Afghanistan first and then move onto the Pashtun areas of Pakistan is wrong. The Taliban were Islamists who had Pan-Islamic ideas that Muslims shouldn't have borders.
This was both fortunate and unfortunate for Pakistan, since the Durand Line was the number one issue but at least they were not hostile to us and nor did they have a desire to invade our lands.

You give lollypop to neighbor to appease/control him. Neighbor eats the lollypop and now thinks "ab to Jo Tera Wo Mera yaar" sharing sharing ..
Now what !

 

[Tolaha]

So,very interesting fact coming out... they are not Hostile to Pakistan they are Hostile to "Durand Line". So what do they consider Pakistan without Durand line a Pakistan or Afghanistan??

Neither! It would be something like the Islamic Caliphate! Atleast, that's what they would like to think it is!

 

[blank_quest]

This means they are eroding the sovereignty of Pakistan , Isn't it?