Could Pakistan Use Nuclear Weapons in a Future Conflict with Afghanistan?

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by W.G.Ewald, Aug 24, 2012.

  1. W.G.Ewald

    W.G.Ewald Defence Professionals/ DFI member of 2 Defence Professionals

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    Could Pakistan Use Nuclear Weapons in a Future Conflict with Afghanistan? | Small Wars Journal
     
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  3. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Afghans would fight a war without an airforce ?

    If pakistan were to wage a war with afghanistan then a slight transfer of troops by India to the border would insure all the pakis would collectively shit themselves.
     
  4. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Imagine this plausible denial:

    ISI nukes cities in Afghanistan, and then Pakistan blames it on 'non state actors.' :D
     
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  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Pakistanis won't do it. It goes against their doctrine. And it will invite massive retaliation from international community.
     
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  6. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    ^^

    Not sure about doctrine, Yusuf. If the Pakhtuns demand greater Pakhtunistan, and if separatism really takes a bad shape, I won't be surprised if tactical nukes are used, after they are 'stolen by militants' in a (staged) terrorist attack.

    It would, however go against Pakistan's long term interests. Imagine all the radioactive clouds raining over northern Pakistan.

    One has to be really desperate to do something like that. Anyway, I think chances, as of now, are remote.
     
  7. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Iam with Pmaitra here,Pakistanis being Pakistanis they can conjure up and materialise a lot of screwed up scenarios.Yusuf Pakistan now also has a extremely horrific Pakhtun problem which they have to face if U.S vacates Afghanistan
     
  8. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    All the more reason why Pak will not nuke the Pakhtun population in Astan. Imagine what will happen in Pakistan's own borders.

    The OP is total :facepalm:
     
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  9. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    But we have not seen them display such common sense a good example 1971 and Baluchistan.Now the Pakjabi has to worry about his begum being snatched by the Pathan
     
  10. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    this is what world wants, that nukes comes in the hand of non state actor so that ammmerika can snatch all nukes from pak
     
  11. Zarvin

    Zarvin Regular Member

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    The answer is no. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent against other Nuclear powers. I don't know where you get these articles that so carelessly discuss nuking other nations.
     
  12. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Are you sure its only against other nuclear powers?. Can you post the doctrine of Pakistani nukes?.
     
  13. Zarvin

    Zarvin Regular Member

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    Unofficially, it is, the reason they came into existence in the first place was because India got them---it won't be used against Afghanistan, Pakistan army and our tribals had fought those Pashtunistan warriors in border skirmishes already. Not to mention, the current Afghan Army is made up of non-Pashtun Tajiks who don't believe in Pashtunistan.

    Again, the talk of nuking nations, especially Afghanistan is a joke. The world already says we control the Taliban which has 60% of Afghan territory under its belt and the whole country perhaps when the US leaves in 2014.
     
  14. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    USA wont leave Afghanistan until it breaks balochistan and and merge with south Afghanistan
     
  15. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Yes, i forgot about that point.

    I have made a thread discussion Pakistan nuclear doctrine and threshold. Please visit and give your opinions

    http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/pakistan/39862-pakistans-nuclear-threshold.html
     
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  16. blank_quest

    blank_quest Senior Member Senior Member

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    1. so you believe what the word says
    2. you believe that Taliban Terrorist (because you said Taliban not "Talib's") are under Pakistani "control" .. so infact they are just the proxy of Pakistan.
    3. what proportion/percentage of population is to be counted of the world for it to be a world view ?
    :troll:
     
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  17. Jim Street

    Jim Street Regular Member

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    Their economy is not going to improve any soon and you guys think they will use nukes against Afghanistan ? It will be economical and political suicide and Pakistan's so called ally won't even support it anymore.

    Even if they do, nuclear dust will enter Pakistan and not to forget hundreds of anti-Pakistan terrorist groups that will emerge .
     
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  18. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    The US will never leave Afghanistan totally.
     
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  19. Jim Street

    Jim Street Regular Member

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    You talking about 40,000 special forces soldiers to be left post-2014 ?

    Any such attack will give US another reason to target Pakistan's nuke and India's constant reminder to the world that Pakistan is unstable.
     
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  20. Zarvin

    Zarvin Regular Member

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    My point is even if ANA stays in power or the Taliban come into power, neither believes in Pashtunistan or invading Pakistan. Tajiks don't have any claim with Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, although they don't believe in Durand line as a border, never considered extending their territory east of it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  21. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    It makes practically no sense for Pakistan to use nukes on Afghanistan, even the non-state actor is out of question here. World community understands well the whole non-state actor thing, but are not ready to call off their bluff completely. WoT and negotiating with a gun pointed to their forehead continues to help Pakistan.

    The international reaction to a nuke attack on Afghanistan will be so severe, forget the nukes being taken out, even the existence of Pakistan as a country as one entity will be at stake, and very possible, new countries emerging in the neighborhood. Pakistanis understand the consequences, they understand the threshold limits, and are playing well within so far. Even Iran for that matter knows it’s limits.

    It is not so much nukes being exploded in Afghanistan that worries the west, but they are more concerned, what if trickle by trickle pilferage happens without anyone noticing and the bomb comes to their home and is exploded by the terrorists, as highlighted by wikileaks in the transcripts between the former US ambassador to Pakistan and the White House. Realistic? Not sure, but if the terrorists can sneak in through the sea or by air, a lot of things are possible.

    Though, it is pointless giving a clean chit to Pakistan. Experience with them shows, they are capable of the most naive things.
     

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