Containing Iran is The Way Forward.

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by Poseidon, Nov 19, 2011.

  1. Poseidon

    Poseidon Regular Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2011
    Messages:
    984
    Likes Received:
    405
    Location:
    New Delhi
    Containing Iran is The Way Forward.
    Roger Cohen | Nov 19, 2011, 12.00AM IST

    In 1980, Saddam Hussein invaded Iran. He reckoned Iranians were too divided by their year-old revolution to offer much riposte. Wrong: Iranians were galvanised, the last internal opposition to Ayatollah Khomeini's theocracy was quashed, and Iran stood as one to face the enemy.

    There's no need to look much further to know how Tehran would respond if Israel or the United States bombed Iran in an attempt to halt its nuclear programme. An Iranian society that today is a combustible mix of depression, division and dysfunction would unite in fury.

    This, in the cautionary words of US defence secretary Leon Panetta, could have "unintended consequences". Among them: a lifeline for the weakened Islamic republic that would lock it in for a generation; a wave of radicalisation just when jihadist ideology seems tired and the Arab Spring stands at a delicate juncture; a blow to the global economy from soaring oil prices; a revival of Iran's sagging regional appeal as it becomes yet another Muslim country to face western bombs; increased terrorism; and a subsequent Iranian race for a nuclear weapon fired by resentments as indelible as those left by the CIA coup that ousted Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953.

    This is not an appealing proposition. But nor of course is a nuclear Iran. And there's the rub.

    I see four key elements. First, Iran is not fiddling around with nuclear triggers and high-precision detonators because it wants to generate electricity. It seeks a military-nuclear capability common to its region (Israel, Pakistan, India and Russia).

    Second, its halting progress towards this goal, far slower than Pakistan's, relates not only to effective countermeasures ( Stuxnet, dead scientists) but also to a deep-seated inertia and ambiguity; Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, is the "guardian of the revolution" and as such in a conservative business where he will be judged on the Islamic republic's survival. The nuclear programme is nationalistic glue for a fragile society even if it goes nowhere.

    Third, Iran, shaken by the 2009 uprising, a young nation with a stale revolutionary regime, is uneasy: a feverish demand for hard currency has pushed the unofficial dollar rate way above the official one, prices for staples are soaring, a huge banking scandal has underscored rampant corruption, and the tensions between the Islamic republic's divine superstructure (Khamenei) and its (frau-dulently) elected president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, are virulent.

    Fourth, the big loser from the Arab Spring has been Iran because the uprisings are about accountability and representation, which is precisely what the Iranian Revolution denied its authors after promising freedom.

    The country is hesitant and divided, and it does not want war. Khamenei is aging; how he would be replaced is unclear. Another presidential election in a couple of years will again reveal the Islamic republic's paralysing contradictions. These circumstances give the United States and Israel room for effective action, so long as they resist a rash military strike. The aim should be to increase Iran's internal divisions, not unite it in furious resolve.

    In 1946, when he wrote the 'Long Telegram' that birthed the policy of containment, George Kennan observed a Soviet Union that was also an ideological enemy of the West, but overstretched and economically weak. He judged, correctly, that it could be contained through firmness, as it was even after developing a bomb.

    Iran, more unpredictable than the Soviet Union, can be stopped short of a bomb through measures short of military action. What is needed is a contain-and-constrain policy. Contain Iran through beefed-up Israeli and Gulf defences, a process underway. Constrain it to circle in its current nuclear ambiguity through covert undermining (Stuxnet 2.0, etc), tough measures to block its access to hard currency and, as a last resort, a "quarantine" similar to John Kennedy's interdiction of shipping to Cuba during the missile crisis.

    How you judge patience depends on how you judge time. Time is not on the Islamic republic's side. - NYTNS.

    Containing Iran is The Way Forward - The Times of India
     
    A.V. likes this.
  2.  
  3. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,562
    Likes Received:
    2,526
    Location:
    తెలంగాణ
    Look at the comments by Westerners on that article. Talk about brainwashed.

    First time that I proud of Indians commenting on ToI. This comment sums it up:
     
  4. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2010
    Messages:
    10,788
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    Western propaganda is the pioneer in its field. Even the nazis acknowledged it.
     
  5. LurkerBaba

    LurkerBaba Staff Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2010
    Messages:
    6,769
    Likes Received:
    3,678
    Location:
    India
    Why doesn't the USA think about bombing/containing Pakistan ? :rolleyes:

    The article is from NYT, TOI re-posted it
     
  6. niharjhatn

    niharjhatn Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2010
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    388
    Sooo true...

    sigh, the ridiculous flag waving of the west is truly incredible. And its not something I have only seen in this article. I don't know if its the American's ignorance is a side effect of their perceived superiority or their stupidity. Seeing comments like "Iran must be stopped now!" and that they are run by "madmen" is unbelievable - anyone that goes against their established ideology of life is termed a "madman" that must be stopped - don't they understand that some people seek more than beer, american football and the latest xbox games :tsk:

    Its impossible to make firm alliances as a non-white nation when such thinking exists in the US - they can turn on anyone and at any time.
     
    The Messiah likes this.
  7. niharjhatn

    niharjhatn Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2010
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    388
    Something they have perfected over hundreds of years - from the preaching of christianity and the blasphemy of idolatry to capitalism vs others, east vs west... in every aspect of history, western propaganda has influenced the rest of the world.
     
    Dovah likes this.
  8. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976

    Your avatar is stepped in Western propaganda...:pound:
     
  9. niharjhatn

    niharjhatn Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2010
    Messages:
    899
    Likes Received:
    388
    A cute indian tv actor? Really?
     
  10. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976

    The only Indian there is her face. Pls check again your picture dude.:rofl:
     
  11. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2010
    Messages:
    10,788
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    :pound:

    you're talking about clothes aren't you ?

    Indians were living in cities with toilets in each room thousands of years ago while europeans were living in caves.
     
    SPIEZ likes this.
  12. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976

    That was a thousand years ago as you said. :rofl:
     
  13. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2010
    Messages:
    10,788
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    You are clearly delusional if you think they are western creations.

    and from what did jeans originate from ?
     
    communismforindia likes this.
  14. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2010
    Messages:
    3,884
    Likes Received:
    1,568
    Location:
    Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh(INDIA)
    What's wrong in IRAN having Nuclear missile technology when the rouge pakistan is having it by the indirect help of the Americans?

    First America should try to destroy all the nuclear missiles in pakistan then they should talk about IRAN.
     
    Virendra likes this.
  15. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976
    This discussion is degenerating into a silly hen-and-egg argument. While India no doubt played a significant role in the shaping of culture in Asia (nobody can deny this), its influence has not really reached seeped deep into Western subconscious. Western culture on the other hand has surged deep into Asian consciousness so much so that we already take for granted Western influences like how we dress, education, and all these youth culture. The march of Western culture is largely a result of the Worldwide reach of Western media. The actress that was used as an avatar by one of the member here is just one example. Here we are already bashing the West and its cultural influences but not fully realising that we have embraced it (except for her face she looks like any other Western TV actress).

    BTW, I'm sorry for being off topic.
     
  16. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2010
    Messages:
    10,788
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    Thats because you lack knowledge and the only history you know is that of the past few centuries.

    Everything that west has today has its roots in India and China. They have only expanded upon it while we have lagged behind in last few centuries.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2011
  17. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2011
    Messages:
    7,308
    Likes Received:
    2,976


    That's a very educational claim. I guess I am now educated. Okay then, if that makes you happy why not? Silly modern Western culture which is based on permissive Protestant values, and later on secularism, is actually rooted in Indian Buddhist and Hindu cultures... I guess even the ubiquitous jeans...8)
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2011
  18. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2009
    Messages:
    24,272
    Likes Received:
    11,275
    Location:
    BANGalore
    My answer to the title is "including Iran is the way forward".
     
    Virendra likes this.
  19. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2010
    Messages:
    2,335
    Likes Received:
    1,418
    If they do that, then how would they contain us. pakistan serves american interests since their leadership licks their boot, which is not in case of Iran. So it must be contained.
     
  20. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2010
    Messages:
    3,884
    Likes Received:
    1,568
    Location:
    Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh(INDIA)
    Pakistan is supporting IRAN on the nuclear programme issue. When pakistan is supporting them why don't the Americans attack pakistan first? That is my point. As IRAN is an ISLAMIC republic pakistan will definitely support IRAN and not the Americans, so why not attack pakistan also?
     
  21. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 23, 2011
    Messages:
    4,754
    Likes Received:
    3,273
    Location:
    Modindia
    A fallacy. Pakistan will support a nation only if it benefits itself. Islamic brotherhood is just a ruse for them.
     
    The Messiah likes this.

Share This Page