Coming triumph of taliban and pakistan in afghanistan

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by ashdoc, Jul 25, 2010.

  1. ashdoc

    ashdoc Senior Member Senior Member

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    The respected historian of India, William Dalrymple, is predicting defeat for the US and its allies in Afghanistan, and victory for the Taliban.

    “Certainly it is becoming clearer than ever that the once-hated Taliban, far from being swept away by General Stanley McChrystal’s surge, are instead regrouping, ready for the final act in the history of Hamid Karzai’s western-installed puppet government. The Taliban have now advanced out of their borderland safe havens to the very gates of Kabul and are surrounding the capital, much as the US-backed mujahedin once did to the Soviet-installed regime in the late 1980s… The Taliban already control more than 70 per cent of the country, where they collect taxes, enforce the sharia and dispense their usual rough justice. Every month, their sphere of influence increases. According to a recent Pentagon report, Karzai’s government has control of only 29 out of 121 key strategic districts…

    “It appears that the Taliban have regained control of the opium-growing centre of Marjah in Helmand Province, only three months after being driven out by McChrystal’s forces amid much gung-ho cheerleading in the US media. Afghanistan is going down… It is time to shed the idea that a pro-western puppet regime that excludes the Pashtuns can remain in place indefinitely. The Karzai government is crumbling before our eyes, and if we delude ourselves that this is not the case, we could yet face a replay of 1842.”

    read more in detail--

    http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2010/06/british-afghanistan-government
     
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  3. ashdoc

    ashdoc Senior Member Senior Member

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    Character of the indomitable pashtuns

    The Pashtuns, or Pushtuns, constitute an estimated 38% of the population of Afghanistan, and as such are the ethnic majority. Though their origin is unclear, their legends say that they are the descendants of Afghana, grandson of King Saul. Most scholars, however, believe that the Pashtuns probably arose from an intermingling of ancient and subsequent invaders. Pashtuns are Caucasians, of medium height, with strong, straight noses, black hair, and dark eyes, although there is a high incidence of blue, green, and gray eyes: The young girl with the unforgettable blue eyes featured in many National Geographic publications and posters is a Pashtun, or Pashtana, the feminine form. The language of the Pashtuns is Pashto, also spelled Pushto, Pushtu, Pashtu, and sometimes Paxto.

    When Westerners caution against optimism in battle against the Afghans, it is the Pashtuns they have in mind. The ‘Afghans’ that the British futilely battled against in the 19th century were the Pashtuns. The majority of the mujaheddin (‘warriors in a holy war’) who ultimately drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan were Pashtuns. Much of the civil war that followed the Soviet withdrawal was fought between rival Pashtun leaders, who had amassed weapons and followers during their fight against the Soviets. Pashtuns are fierce fighters and are known for their marksmanship. They are accustomed to hardship and poverty and can prevail in conditions that would easily defeat others. At the same time, though deeply dedicated to their religious beliefs, they also cultivate nonreligious cultural traditions. They are poets with a wonderful oral literature who can quote poetry by the hour.

    The Pashtuns are Sunni Muslims, but their Islamic beliefs and behavior have often been tempered, and distorted, by cultural values that are sometimes at odds with the teachings of Islam, as in their treatment of women under Taliban rule. Distinctive tribal customs and traditions form an integral part of the Pashtun society. Pashtun cultural values are reflected in a code of ethics–called simply Pashto in Pashto, and Pashtunwali (‘the way of the Pashtun’) by non-Pashtuns–by which Pashtuns are required to live. Westerners are fascinated by the idea of the Pashtunwali, and Pashtuns correspondingly expand on the concept to suit their listeners.

    Pashtunwali is followed religiously, and it includes the following practices: badal (the right of blood feuds or revenge), nunawati (the right of a fugitive to seek refuge and acceptance of his bona fide offer of peace), melmastya (hospitality and protection to every guest), tureh (bravery), sabats (steadfastness), imamdari (righteousness), isteqamat (persistence), ghayrat (defense of property and honor), and mamus (defense of one’s female relatives).

    These elements govern Pashtun interpersonal and intertribal relationships. It is expected that a Pashtun who has been wronged will exact revenge, no matter how long it takes. It is also expected that a Pashtun who has been wronged is entitled to compensation, that compensation being determined by a loya jirga, a council of respected men. And finally, it is expected that a Pashtun will protect and shelter the guests in his household. Another feature of traditional Pashtun life is that inheritances are traditionally divided equally among all the sons, in spite of the clear teachings in the Koran that women are to receive an equal share of inheritances.
     
  4. ashdoc

    ashdoc Senior Member Senior Member

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    Ethnic composition of AF -PAK --two lands which may come together tomorrow if pak controlled taliban is victorious in afghanistan--

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2010
  5. A.V.

    A.V. New Member

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    seeing the ethnic composition parts of afganistan can come under influence but even greater parts of pakistan is under unrest due to the baloch issue so it can go either way taking land now is a big headache its not the land its 100,s of mouth to feed 2x hands to provide job and healthcare if it fails then the existing chaos will ruin the place even further
     
  6. S.A.T.A

    S.A.T.A Senior Member Senior Member

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    The so called Taliban's triumph(and Pakistan's by default)in Afghanistan will be a Pyrrhic one to say the least.what we are witnessing now and will continue bear witness in the coming years would be Afghanistan's return to the politics of ethnic identities of the yesteryear's.Its often said Karzai's writ only run in certain parts of the country,which has only been the case karzai writ has always been only in the areas where the northern alliance are strong(with the exception of the period when the US led alliance had maintained domination in the south)........Taliban's triumph will only further fracture the ethnically divided country and force and eventual split and division.

    Pakistan's cause will appear even more bleak.Any Taliban triumph will only happen after the western forces vacate the scene,however there will be very little change in the ground realities of PAK-AFG relations.Pakistan will continue to have to arm and support Taliban materially and ideologically in an escalating civil war in Afghanistan.This time they will have to do that without the western aide(military and economically),with no visible end violence and continued instability in Afghanistan,Pakistan's own position in its NWFA will be tenuous and shaky.

    Here's another factor that will have the Pakistan establishment wallahs worried,if Afghanistan splits(or if Taliban ceases to have any influence in the northern areas)its easily conceivable that Taliban will towards the Pakistani NWFP as compensation,given the ethno-social-political composition of the area it would make for an lucrative affordable compensation.


    P.S:India might be eagerly awaiting this coming triumph
     
  7. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Even after the soviet pullout the Afghan Govt and its Army was on its own able to rule the country and kept Mujhaideen at bay for quite a few months. This is a feat that can be repeated, provided the leadership is sound and support plentiful.

    "Afghan" Taliban, though, supported by Pakistani establishment are not puppets and neither are Pakistan's indigenous jihadis. As long as the Pak establishment lets them do what they want to do aka wage jihad, they are pliable but it will be impossible for Pak establishment to stop the Jihadis from waging Jihad, lest they turn on the establishment. The security situation in Pakistan shows that Pak establishment is scarcely in control of the jihadis and the situation is exacerbated whenever the military tries to act against the Jihadis.

    Taliban takeover of Astan, will be a security nightmare for India. In fact Pakistan will probably increase the number of jihad factories and divert jihadis to Afghanistan or Kashmir to ease the pressure on its own homeland. This also means that there can be an improvement in the security situation in Afpak but at the same time the radicalisation of afpak will only increase.
     
  8. ashdoc

    ashdoc Senior Member Senior Member

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    very optimistic..........in reality ,the taliban was close to complete control of afghanistan and defeat of the northern alliance before 9/11 and american involovement occured.

    not for nothing have i copy-pasted about the pashtun character---they ,who form majority of taliban ,are far tougher than their tajik , hazara ,and uzbek enemies and are likely to capture whole of afghanistan.

    once that is achieved , all the battle -hardened jihadis could be diverted to india and kashmir to fuel tensions.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2010
  9. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    i tend to believe the radicalisation this time wont just be limited to afpak, but very well move to the heart of pakistan, punjab and if that were to happen then that is a certain bad news for us, because the chances of another 26/11 become that much more imminent since the role of non state actor becomes that much prominent and uncontrollable and kashmir more than not has a higher chance of becoming a terror hot bed again but what this also means is pakistan could well be swept by a wave of radical thoughts taking center stage because withdrawal of the US and NATO will be projected as a triumph of the pure over kafirs,think about it, a massive victory over the lone super power and its allies on top of a similar victory over the then superpower a commie ussr, that is one hell of a propaganda that will have a huge fan following, and with the US out from the region and with no real pressure on pak army to work against these terror outfits, or control their movement in the country, these terror outfits armed with all that propaganda, one is sure to witness a much radicalised pakistan post the withdrawal of the US and NATO and this could at the end of the day turn out to be as bad as a talibanised pakistan, and if these people were then to be opposed by anyone, there is one hell waiting to break out at that point in time.

    US will make the biggest ever blunder in their history if they we to move out without sorting out the core problem of terrorism, if they do that, they might not realise it today but they are bringing a nuke bomb that much more closer to their country, something they will repent only later on!
     
  10. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    That Pakistan and Afghanistan will "come together" is a far stretch. Not forgetting that Pakistan is a stable, even if dysfunctional government, the two peoples share a history of animosity, and distrust, are bound together by a common language only in the regions bordering the Durand line, have different-thinking civil government and that their 'coming together' or apparent 'coming together' will impact the geopolitical calculus of not just those countries involved in the war, but several countries in the region.

    Saying that, I believe it is a contingency we should not ignore. The best strategy, in my opinion, is to co-opt Iran on any movements in the region. Maybe co-opt Russia in terms of a new market for their military supplies, heavy armaments, etc. to the Afghan government. The marginal benefit of them supplying weapons to the Afghan govt. should exceed that of them supplying weapons to the mujahideen. And certainly, in my opinion, replacing key positions and elements within the Pakistani military Administration.
     
  11. NewMember

    NewMember Regular Member

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    I dont think everything this gentlman says is correct. the taliban are gaining momentun, yes. do they control 70% of the country? it is a big no. controlling is someting having the ability to disrupt people's lives and other activitiy is something esle. north, central part, good parts of east(laghman and nangarhar provinces), and west of the country is good with flourishing economy and security. south is bad with security problems. as per marjah, i dont think the taliban have taken marjah, it is not possible for them. secondly, 38% cant be majority, our pashtoon brothers are the biggest ethnic group not majority. and by the way, it doesnt matter we are all afghans.
     

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