Clueless on Pakistan

[anoop_mig25]

Clueless on Pakistan C. Raja Mohan Posted: Fri Jan 14 2011

Stupidity, Albert Einstein once theorised, is about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
The current American and Indian approaches to Pakistan, it would seem, are proof of that. The Obama administration thinks offering more incentives will induce the Pakistan army to cooperate in the pursuit of American objectives in Afghanistan. India, for its part, remains hopeful that it can persuade Pakistan, through negotiations, to end its support of cross-border terrorism.
For nearly a decade, Washington has offered carrots of all sorts to get Pakistan to dismantle the insurgent sanctuaries on its soil that have made it difficult for the United States to stabilise Afghanistan. Despite throwing nearly $20 billion at Pakistan since its invasion of Afghanistan at the end of 2001, the US finds itself in a steadily worsening situation.

Three Indian prime ministers — Inder Kumar Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh — invested much political capital and diplomatic energy in constructing a purposeful engagement with Pakistan since the late 1990s. All three hoped that addressing Pakistan's concerns on Kashmir — the so-called core issue for Islamabad — will result in an end to violence and the full normalisation of bilateral relations. Yet, New Delhi remains trapped in a hopeless situation.

On the face of it, then, Washington and Delhi are being stupid in their expectations from Pakistan. On a closer look, however, the condition that engulfs Washington and Delhi is not stupidity but tragedy. Stupidity is about failing to see a pattern in the relationship between actions and outcomes. Tragedy is about having to do the same thing over and over again, despite "knowing" that the results will not be different.

Both Washington and Delhi are acutely aware that their current policies towards Pakistan have not worked. The problem for Washington and Delhi is that they don't have too many other options in dealing with the Pakistan army that defines the nation's policies towards the US and India. Washington, however, continues to see the Pakistan army as part of the solution.

India attempted to cut a deal with the army when Pervez Musharraf was at the peak of his power during 2004-07, but once General Ashfaq Kayani took charge in 2008, the peace process rapidly disintegrated. For India, the Pakistan army is the problem. While India knows the civilian leaders can't really deliver on its concerns, not talking to them is no good either.

In the wake of 9/11, it was Washington that set the terms for the negotiations with Rawalpindi by threatening to bomb Pakistan to stone age, if Musharraf did not cooperate with the US in Afghanistan. Now it is Kayani who sets the agenda for Washington on Afghanistan. In a six-hour visit to Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Wednesday, US Vice-President Joe Biden has reportedly sought to address all the concerns about US regional policy flagged by Kayani in recent months.

Biden's visit was about persuading Kayani to do more in draining the swamp of militancy on Pakistan's western borderlands. In return, the US media reported that the Obama administration was offering to build a long-term partnership with Pakistan.

At the end of Biden's six-hour-long stay in Pakistan, no new package of assistance was announced. That does not mean it is not under negotiation. The fact is that Kayani wants a lot more than money.

He is demanding that the US accept a special role for Pakistan in the proposed "end-state" for Afghanistan, install its proxies in power across the Durand Line, help reduce the Indian role in Afghanistan, get Delhi to make concessions on J&K, and restore a measure of parity between Delhi and Islamabad on a range of areas including nuclear and other high-technology cooperation. If Kayani is bold enough to push his luck,

it is by no means clear where Washington might draw the line.

On Pakistan's eastern frontiers, it was Delhi that suspended the talks after 26/11. Since mid-2009, India's repeated efforts at resuming the dialogue have been unsuccessful, because Kayani is setting the terms. Having reneged on Musharraf's pledge to rein in anti-India militant groups, Kayani is in no mood to give credible commitments on either bringing the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks to justice or eliminating the safe havens for terror in Pakistan.

Kayani wants India to resume the dialogue without any conditions, and then some. When External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna invited Shah Mahmood Qureshi to visit Delhi, the Pakistani foreign minister said he was in no rush. He would rather see the results from a preparatory meeting between the two foreign secretaries, who will now meet in early February.

While many in the US and India believe that Pakistan is hurtling down an abyss and are tempted to save it from itself, Kayani seems to think he is well poised to deliver historic strategic gains for the army's regional policy. It is quite clear that neither India nor the US is in a position to unilaterally change the current strategic calculus of the Pakistan army. In an ideal world, they might have a slim chance by recasting their Pakistan policies and acting together.

Although Obama has avoided pressing India on Pakistan, many in Washington are consumed by the idea that India must find ways to please Pakistan so that Rawalpindi might do more for the US in Afghanistan. As it disabuses Washington of such ideas, India must begin to look beyond the resumption of the composite dialogue to actions that could alter the internal dynamic in Pakistan.

That would involve Delhi thinking in a disaggregated manner about Pakistan, engaging the different political forces across the border, and building a profile in Afghanistan that can survive the impending shifts in US policy. Trying different things might not necessarily end the tragedy of India's relationship with Pakistan; but it is worth finding out.
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if 3 PM of india instead of trying to set relationships with pakistan instead would had worked on setting up intelligence infrastructure in pakistan we would had better information about various terrorist organisation working against india and their activities

 

[Ray]

The problem with Pakistan is that one does not know who to deal with.

If one deals with the Army, they are fixated with keeping the Army uber alles and what can be better than the India bogey and Kashmir.

If Kashmir is solved, there is no reason left for the Army to arm themselves to the teeth or be relevant to the policy making of the government.

So discussing with the Army is barking up the wrong tree and to the deaf mute.

If the Army with its Punjabi majority become irrelevant, then the Mohajirs take the upper hand since they are the bureaucracy. captains of commerce and the judiciary.

That to the Punjabis is not acceptable.

Pakistan is a self destruct imagery!

It is such a Gordian Knot that they themselves cannot unravel!

 

[Singh]

India and Pakistan on the brink
​

Everything is going right these days for India, except for one big problem: It is living next to a Pakistan that is coming apart politically, and Indian leaders insist with a tone of resignation that there's nothing they can do about it.

Starting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, top Indian officials know that their booming democracy is endangered by the growing chaos across the border. They say that they're willing to revive back-channel negotiations with Islamabad to resolve the long-festering problem of Kashmir. They favor confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of war between these two nuclear-armed nations.

And then, in the next breath, Indian officials insist that such positive steps won't make any difference. The Pakistani military doesn't want any reduction in tensions, they argue. The civilian government is crumbling and incapable of making a deal. Even Singh, long an advocate of better relations with Pakistan, is said to have concluded that hopes for better relations are "wishful thinking."

A few hundred miles away in Islamabad, you'd hear the same bleak message from Pakistani military and political leaders. Yes, they know that the immediate threat to Pakistan is from Islamic militants, not India. Yes, they know that restoring a back-channel dialogue with New Delhi might ease tensions. But no, they don't see any way to step back from the brink. The Indians, in their view, are conspiring to undermine Pakistan.

Welcome to the world's most dangerous zero-sum game. The sad fact is that India and Pakistan, separated at birth in 1947, are locked in what seems like a blood feud. You hear the same language of suspicion in prosperous New Delhi that you do in embattled Islamabad.


I spent three days here talking with Indian leaders as part of a dialogue sponsored by the Aspen Strategy Group and the Confederation of Indian Industry. Discussing the India-Pakistan dispute with these officials reminded me of the fable of Tantalus, whose punishment by the gods was that food and drink were always just out of reach. A rapprochement between India and Pakistan is that elusive: You can imagine what the reduction of tensions would look like but you can't grasp it.

This is a problem that might seem ripe for U.S. mediation. Washington has close ties with both countries, after all, and it could act as an honest broker on issues such as Kashmir, which is ruled by India but claimed by both countries. But Indians say that American intervention could just make matters worse - poisoning public opinion against any deal that emerged.

U.S. diplomats are walking on eggshells: The Kashmir problem is so sensitive that American officials sometimes refer to it as "the K word," as if the very subject were unmentionable. Washington has gently encouraged dialogue between the two countries, but two meetings last year between their foreign ministers collapsed amid mutual recriminations. They will have another chance next month at a regional gathering in Bhutan, but nobody seems very hopeful.

The Indians watch Pakistan's political instability with grim resignation. The root problem, they argue, is that the Pakistani military is unwilling to sever its links with Islamic terrorists. Until the Pakistanis break this insurgency, they will be at its mercy. Dialogue with India won't make any difference, they insist.

"The last thing we want to see is Pakistan slide into instability," says one top Indian official, but he cautions that there is little that India or America can do. "It's Pakistan's internal problem. And that, we can't fix."

As India celebrates its own economic success, there is a slight tone of South Asian schadenfreude about Pakistan's troubles. "There is one school of thought that says, 'If they [the Pakistanis] are committing suicide, then you don't have to murder them,'" the top official concedes. "But the consequences of that are horrible."

I came away from these discussions feeling that Indian leaders are being shortsighted: If Pakistan descends further into violence and chaos, India will suffer from the fallout. And with these two bitter rivals, there is always the risk of nuclear war. If I were a newly prosperous Indian, I'd want to help my ailing neighbor as a matter of self-protection.

But try making that argument to Indian officials. "You have to recognize that some problems can't be solved," counsels one prominent Indian. Officials here don't want American mediation, and they think outreach to Pakistan won't do any good. Meanwhile, the South Asian tinderbox keeps on getting hotter.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/14/AR2011011405282.html

 

[Ray]

I fail to understand as to how India will suffer if Pakistan lands itself on the dung heap.

That is if they do not attack India.

Then that will be a different kettle of fish.

 

[anoop_mig25]

seriouslly american crap everybody in american administration cannot do anything except forcing india to talk to pakistan. they have to come to relaise that except making LOC permanent IB nothing more can indian policymakers do it.and hell let pakistan fail let see how much nuclear bomb can let+ISI goons can suggmle india and blast it. wont they be caught . nuclear bomb arn`t small toys as most americans think . how much of paks bomb are going to target america. hell this bomb wont even be thrown in isreal as whole region including those of palestian would blown up .on extermist i think that nuclear bomb would be used to blown up region of pak to resist insurgency/freedom momevemnt in pakistan

 

[JayATL]

Although Obama has avoided pressing India on Pakistan, many in Washington are consumed by the idea that India must find ways to please Pakistan so that Rawalpindi might do more for the US in Afghanistan.

India is doing that- as seen with withdrawal of troops from Kashmir, thus trying to defuse one of pak's long lasting excuses that they concerned with India's troop size on their eastern borders.

if Pakistan fails, then that means unimpeded flow of terrorists into India. If you think US spends trillions on security because of this region, imagine what a boarding country would have to spend. YOU DO NOT WANT PAK TO FAIL! just remain at worst in its constant poor state.

 

[Tshering22]

I fail to understand as to how India will suffer if Pakistan lands itself on the dung heap.

That is if they do not attack India.

Then that will be a different kettle of fish.

Taliban. That's your answer. Unless you are telling me that the Military and civilian leadership is thinking and DOING something about it.

 

[Energon]

David Ignatius's argument is moot. There is absolutely nothing anyone can do about Pakistan. It doesn't matter how much cash, goodwill or "dialogue" you throw around, as long as its fractious establishment remains committed to the suicidal processes, Pakistan will remain a black hole. The Pakistani leadership is well aware of the fact that a collapsed Pakistan is not a viable option for the global community which in turn enables them to take hostages at will. And clearly they have no problems jeopardizing the well being of the entire society thereby denying anyone leverage.

This is akin to forcibly making someone watch a snuff film.

 

[The Messiah]

YOU DO NOT WANT PAK TO FAIL!

Thats right!

I WANT PAK TO DIE

 

[pmaitra]

"There is one school of thought that says, 'If they [the Pakistanis] are committing suicide, then you don't have to murder them,'" the top official concedes.

That is what many in India are waiting for. I wonder if it will be a good idea to 'expedite' that process (of suicide) so that Pakistan dies earlier than expected. Of course there will be fallout. The only concern is their nukes. India needs to seriously think of neutralising that threat.

 

[Energon]

That is what many in India are waiting for. I wonder if it will be a good idea to 'expedite' that process (of suicide) so that Pakistan dies earlier than expected. Of course there will be fallout. The only concern is their nukes. India needs to seriously think of neutralising that threat.

This schadenfreude on account of Pakistan's current situation is one thing, but all this talk about accelerating a collapse is misguided. The spillover of the anarchy will be fatal.

It is humanly impossible to seal all borders. A massive surge in militancy would be imminent, not only in Kashmir but all along the border. There is a huge narcotics component which again can paralyze any law enforcement agency. There will be an influx of weapons, drugs and all sorts of crap which will be smuggled through the porous coastal border. This means anyone with a grievance of any sort can easily find access to sophisticated weapons. Let's not even bother with the nuclear weapons.

India does not possess the infrastructure to combat any of these things, the effects would be disastrous for the society and will pretty much bring the growth and progress to a screeching halt.

A failed Pakistan is simply not an option.

 

[sonofindia]

I think Its Pakistan which is on the path of self destruction. The result may be that Pak will split into 2 or 3 pieces. These small nations, one punjabi, other Baluchi and third Sindhi will choose different foreign policies. War loving Punjabi country will keep its hatred and enmity with India. Sindhi nation will be very eager to do trade with India and Baluch nation will like to get aid and financial help to build infrastructure. Eventually, India ,Sindhistan and Baluchistan will make a free trade zone with India and have defence treaty. Punjabi nation will remain poor and angry with its rusted old weaponry. Pakis economy is in freefall ...there is mutual bloodshed in its cities. terrorists are waiting to control its weaponry. USA willnot allow it to happen..it may invade and take control of paki weapons. Next 5 years are crucial...India just need to play its card intelligently.

 

[Tshering22]

I think Its Pakistan which is on the path of self destruction. The result may be that Pak will split into 2 or 3 pieces. These small nations, one punjabi, other Baluchi and third Sindhi will choose different foreign policies. War loving Punjabi country will keep its hatred and enmity with India. Sindhi nation will be very eager to do trade with India and Baluch nation will like to get aid and financial help to build infrastructure. Eventually, India ,Sindhistan and Baluchistan will make a free trade zone with India and have defence treaty. Punjabi nation will remain poor and angry with its rusted old weaponry. Pakis economy is in freefall ...there is mutual bloodshed in its cities. terrorists are waiting to control its weaponry. USA willnot allow it to happen..it may invade and take control of paki weapons. Next 5 years are crucial...India just need to play its card intelligently.

Yes it is quite viable. BTW Sindhis are interested in Sindhudesh (like Bangladesh, since Sindhi language has more Sanskritized terminologies even though their scrip changed). The only problem in Pakistan's splintering is: N-U-K-E-S. And the USA is in absolutely NO POSITION to invade another country. They are already financing their WOT from Chinese money in the form of debts and Chinese buying up their bonds. Chinese hold them by their nuts indirectly and naturally, the Chinese know that only the insane Pakistani Punjab hates Indians so brutally as compared to other possible-breakaway nations. This means that the line of railways and other land alternates to transporting of resources from Middle East to China through POK would be muddled as Punjab doesn't own that part of the region and Balochistan and Sindhudesh would likely turn neutral and abstain neutrally to allow such a transit if at all they get good ties with India.

As the famous saying goes, "China will fight India to the last Pakistani".

The only big issues would be:

1- UN descending down to control the region as a UN-ruled "nation" till different governments are mandated
2- GOI (thens) be aggressive enough politically to take bak Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. This would mean political sparring with Chinese
3- UN seizing effective and 100% command and control of Pakistani nukes.

Now get this: Pakistan right now is paranoid about the same thing we are discussing here. Which means that they are ready to do anything to make sure that the nukes--which are essential to their survival against us or anyone for that matter, remain out of the hands of anybody including UN. Even if the government and military leaders are arrested later or something, they will refuse to divulge where the bomb is or worse: threaten to sell it to the highest bidder (most likely Taliban if it lives till 2-3 years more or LET or someone else), just like Kim Jong Il regime.

_______________________________________________

You see, Pakistan's death won't be so easy, especially with the PATHETIC, corrupt and vile government that we have right now, who cannot think beyond filling its effing coffers for the next election in buying off last minute votes or making sure that Sonia madam and puppy Rahul have enough money to enjoy for 4 lifetimes if they have to escape this country like Tunisia's dictator did.

We need someone who can actually think along the lines of these strategic measures and take precautions. Now naturally for UN to come asking for nukes, would take some time before coming into effect and naturally this means we will have to take some measures lest the collapsed leadership threatens to supply LET and tries to negotiate with a gun on our heads.

 

[johnee]

This schadenfreude on account of Pakistan's current situation is one thing, but all this talk about accelerating a collapse is misguided. The spillover of the anarchy will be fatal.

It is humanly impossible to seal all borders. A massive surge in militancy would be imminent, not only in Kashmir but all along the border. There is a huge narcotics component which again can paralyze any law enforcement agency. There will be an influx of weapons, drugs and all sorts of crap which will be smuggled through the porous coastal border. This means anyone with a grievance of any sort can easily find access to sophisticated weapons. Let's not even bother with the nuclear weapons.

India does not possess the infrastructure to combat any of these things, the effects would be disastrous for the society and will pretty much bring the growth and progress to a screeching halt.

A failed Pakistan is simply not an option.

Wow!! The great doomsday scenario....
But there is one big flaw in your whole argument. You are assuming that Pakistan nation is not already trying to hurt India in all ways possible. That is completely wrong assumption. The second assumption that you make is that militants can create havoc without pakistani supervision. But without pakistani supervision and funding, the militants are no more than tribals with guns. They were handled by IA as far back as 1948. So, we can do that easily. It is the largesse donated by US to Pakistan that sustains the terrorism, without it terrorism can be handled quite easily. The nukes are already aimed at India with a very low threshold, so if nukes fall in the hands of militants, it does mean any threat increase for us in India because we are already under the full threat. Infact, it would mean that now the world(US) has to worry about the nukes also because the jihadis hate them as much as they us. Thus, if the nukes fall into the hands of jihadis(as if pakistani army is not jihadi), then our threat perception will be shared by the entire world and there may be some decisive action against these terrorists.

Thus, India's progress is not going to come to any screeching halt. If Pakistanis could have done that, they would have done that...

 

[Tshering22]

^^ Bravo analysis Johnee. Repped you.!

 

[Energon]

Wow!! The great doomsday scenario....
But there is one big flaw in your whole argument. You are assuming that Pakistan nation is not already trying to hurt India in all ways possible. That is completely wrong assumption. The second assumption that you make is that militants can create havoc without pakistani supervision. But without pakistani supervision and funding, the militants are no more than tribals with guns. They were handled by IA as far back as 1948. So, we can do that easily. It is the largesse donated by US to Pakistan that sustains the terrorism, without it terrorism can be handled quite easily. The nukes are already aimed at India with a very low threshold, so if nukes fall in the hands of militants, it does mean any threat increase for us in India because we are already under the full threat. Infact, it would mean that now the world(US) has to worry about the nukes also because the jihadis hate them as much as they us. Thus, if the nukes fall into the hands of jihadis(as if pakistani army is not jihadi), then our threat perception will be shared by the entire world and there may be some decisive action against these terrorists.

Thus, India's progress is not going to come to any screeching halt. If Pakistanis could have done that, they would have done that...

Mate, this post pretty much torpedoes any confidence one might have in your conceptual understanding of the topic at hand. You do realize that there are a multitude of actual experts who do tons of research on this topic yea? Not only is there documented evidence which contradicts each and everything you say here but it also defies basic logic. Unless you discern living room chatter from ground realities there is no possible way to engage you in any serious debate here.

All I can say is that the Pakistan based terror groups are anything but "tribals with guns", they no longer require sustentive aid from the establishment, the "largess" donated by the US government does not sustain terrorism and contrary to what you want to believe, the Pakistan Army is not synonymous with 'jihadi groups'. In fact, I don't think you realize how much of a barrier the Pakistani establishment is to all of this.

Any sense of objectivity or logical assessment you may have is being completely overshadowed by your hatred for Pakistan. Hope you can let go of that.

cheers

 

[sonofindia]

My basic point is that Pakistan allows itself deliberately to be used by other big powers due to its hatred and envy of India. It is like sibling rivalry. A smart high achieving kid being envied by a dumb low achieving kid...starts doing things to hurt the high achiever. So, USA used Pakistan for decades and now, Pakistan wants to lick the Chinese butt inviting China to use it. Any intelligent Indian politician can understand that the best foreign policy goal of India should be to make Pakistan a useless liability so that Neither USA nor China can find it useful. One goal should be to keep Pakistan ,s economy poor so it becomes a deep hole in which these users will have to keep putting money and then,a point of frustration comes and they will stop feeding this hungry and useless nation. IN BRIEF, MAKE PAKISTAN SO POOR AND USELESS THAT NO POWER..BE IT USA OR CHINA ..FIND IT PROFITABLE TO USE IT AGAINST INDIA. We need an intense economic war on Pakis. Let them eat their nukes.

 

[sonofindia]

Hey Folks! Its 6 months ago that I wrote about falling Pakistan. See how things are evolving. Here are the facts: (1)Pakistani economy is in VERY bad shape and going down each day.(2) Sectarian violence is destroying its main business center,Karachi.(3)terrorists are targetting pakistan as they have turned against pakistan now.(3) American military is puzzled as pakistan was hiding Laden and they were fooled.(4)American public opinion of Pakistan have gone all time low(5) Paki nation is bitterly divided into civilian leaders and military Generals pitted against each other.(6) Paki lovers in USA are hiding their face and are finding it hard to promote Pakistan's side.(7) US has suspended $800 million military aid triggering an urgenct need for Pak to send Hina Rabbani to India to show that they want peace with India( expecting this will please their american masters to release aid money)
Please give your opinion based on these hard facts as of July2011.

 

[Virendra]

(7) US has suspended $800 million military aid triggering an urgenct need for Pak to send Hina Rabbani to India to show that they want peace with India( expecting this will please their american masters to release aid money)
Please give your opinion based on these hard facts as of July2011.

US aid to Pakistan and its discontinuation have nothing to do with how sincere Pakistan is to improve relations with India. These are two different matters.
By the way you seem very optimistic about Pakistani state's fall much more than I am. I think hardship would be there but they won't do gown anytime soon.

Regards,
Virendra